We have our regular glut of Monday polls today, with new figures from YouGov, Populus, Ashcroft and ComRes. Topline figures are:

Populus – CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs)
Ashcroft – CON 30%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun – CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%
ComRes/Indy – CON 28%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7% (tabs)

A week ago we had a clutch of polls showing an increased Labour lead following Rochester and Strood. Populus had a couple of polls with 5 point leads, as did Lord Ashcroft, YouGov’s poll on the same day produced a four point Labour lead. This week they’ve all gone back to more typical numbers – it was either a short term effect, or just pure co-incidence. We will never know.

Note that there is a change in ComRes’s methodology. As with their online and constituency polling, they have introducing UKIP into the main voting intention prompt. UKIP are down one point since the previous ComRes poll so this does not appear to have had any radical effect.


533 Responses to “Monday polling round-up”

1 2 3 11
  1. First

  2. Typical numbers being a small Lab lead wiith them and Cons both in low thirties.

  3. JIM JAM

    I was thinking that too. Not very impressive VI for the Tories and Labour but looking at the recent polling I reckon Labour are just edging into a 2% lead again rather than being neck and neck.

  4. Averages:

    Con 30.5
    Lab 32.5
    Lib 8.3
    UKIP 15.8
    Green 6.0
    Other 7.0

  5. AC – And along comes Stageek to confirm it.

  6. Scottish cross breaks for SNP

    Populus…34%

    Ashcroft…40%

    ComRes…41%

    Yougov…?

  7. JIM JAM

    I don’t mind being authenticated by STATGEEK ;-)

  8. If you bear in mind that 5% or so of the UKIP VI are potential Labour supporters and that a large number of the others are SNP or PC, the right looks incredibly weak in these polls!!! Sure, there’s quite a few people out their worried about immigration, but its close to 60-40 against a small state agenda.
    I have been convinced about a small Tory win in May for the last three years, but however hard you look at these polls its difficult to see where that is coming from.

  9. re: Allan Christie, your SNP figures for Ashcroft included don’t knows in the total. The correct figures to use exclude don’t knows; those were SNP 49, Lab 25, Tory 9. (56 weighted base)

    ComRes result for Scotland was SNP 41, Lab 24, Tory 21.

    Populus – who have been showing a much closer SNP – Labour race than the other pollsters (they have had Labour ahead in some sub-samples) – had SNP 34, Lab 29, Tory 21.

    YouGov this morning had SNP 44, Lab 31, Tory 16. I would guess that tomorrow’s will be pretty similar, as the “others” (which is mostly SNP) look a bit higher (if anything) from the top line results.

  10. Rouble trouble (bet you didn’t pronounce that correctly!).

    Russia looks to be in economic meltdown this evening, with a huge crash on the currency and companies needing state bailouts as foreign loans fall due. Inflation is shooting up in the shops, and there are reports of a rush to buy white goods before the price rises kick in.

    This could be highly destabilizing in all kinds of ways.

  11. @Alec

    The BBC used to have a reporter called Jonathan Charles. Your posts remind me of him :)

  12. To those who don’t remember JC, he was often considered a prophet of doom. And he had the voice for it too.

  13. RAF
    To those who don’t remember JC, he was often considered a prophet of doom. And he had the voice for it too
    _____

    Alec certainly has the prophet of doom literacy skills. ;-)

  14. @NewForestRadical

    ‘I have been convinced about a small Tory win in May for the last three years, but however hard you look at these polls its difficult to see where that is coming from.’

    Always remember that these polls are only ever a snapshot. A heck of a lot can change in the run up to an election – just ask Gordon Brown.

    The public will get it right, they always do.

  15. An unstable Russia is very bad new for security in Europe.

  16. Anthony (fpt)

    Thanks, I used that formula and the table 6 values for Comres work out perfectly on this poll, (and on their previous telephone poll 30 Oct)

    But the formula does not work on their online poll of mid Nov, so they must be using a different formula there.

    They do have this explanation on their website, so presumably that is part of this experiment they mention. Lets see what their online poll does next month.

    But for now I would say that prompting or not prompting for UKIP does not appear to have the 4/5% difference that they noticed with their split sample experiment they did with their online poll in Oct in the case of telephone polls, but for online polls that difference does still seem to be there, but they are adjusting it down somehow.

    “PROMPTING FOR PARTIES

    We continually review our methodology in order to take account of the dynamic political landscape. Having conducted extensive tests we have decided to include UKIP as a prompted option in both our telephone and online polling, alongside the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. A significant driver in exploring this aspect of our methodology has been the rise in support for UKIP who have, for example, outpolled the (prompted) Liberal Democrats in every ComRes poll since February 2013. While we would have felt it premature to begin prompting for UKIP before now, it has felt increasingly inappropriate not to prompt given this increase in support. In our continuing drive for accuracy, we published one such experiment in October 2014 using a split sample. However, we have also been heavily analysing other data, as a result of which we are also experimenting with differential weights and filters based on past voting behaviour, party identification and current voting intention. We are witnessing a highly dynamic political environment so our methodology will continue to be reviewed regularly.”

  17. @Alec

    “Rouble trouble”

    Truffle trouble, even? :))

  18. I see the Grauniad has rechristened the Rouble the Ruble. Is this a play on the currency crumbling (as they also say)?

    I believe Putin has said “It does not mean that the Rubble here in Russia, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued”

  19. As I recall, Russia defaulted on its debts less than 2 decades ago. It doesn’t seem to have to have turned Russia into Upper Volta. And if they default again, then ditto.

    A low oil price is a bummer for them, but if they withhold supply and take a short term hit it will soon rise again

    Never confuse financial issues and the real economy (EU take note!).

  20. CATMANJEFF
    “An unstable Russia is very bad new for security in Europe.”

    Not necessarily. Alec’s post, if yours stems from it, referred more specifically to the destabilising effect of an economic collaps in Russia. If the economic collapse, predictable in terms of the dependency of the economy on 68% of exports from oil and oil derivatives, leads to perhaps long-overdue cooperation between the EU and Russia, then the recently impending renewal of the Cold War is out the window. They can’t afford it. The EU cannot afford to see Russia sink into long term dependency on an unstable oil market and thus into the extreme poverty for much of the population which now threatens. Instead, many will see the opportunity for investment in and the provision of credit and technology to Russia to diversify their economy, starting with the upgrading of agriculture which Gorbachev sought in cooperation with the West in 1989. This is a situation which will make both Putin and forces in both the US and the EU which have pinned their authority on continued hostility between an outdated system of power blocs and economic systems think again.

  21. @Bernard Simpson – “The public will get it right, they always do.”

    Like when the public elected Hitler. That was a great decision. Or is popular infallibility a uniquely British trait?

  22. @ John P

    That’s an optimistic interpretation and I hope you’re right. I’m no historian, but my impression is that countries with – shall we say – less than the best democratic structures and traditions do not necessarily react to adversity in a rational way, by cooperating with neighbours etc.

    I’d tend towards CMJ’s interpretation.

  23. @Chris Green

    Technically Hitler was appointed by Hindenburg.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_1932

  24. GUYMONDE
    It depends on how relations with Russia are driven by market opportunity rather than by politics or governments. Embargoes on trade on account of the Ukraine intervention, brought about partly by political interests of the EC and US State Department, don’t appear to me to be sustainable and have been subject to Putin’s “We are the Russian people, we don’t mind suffering poverty” rhetoric, but won’t be maintained in the face of either the real and grinding poverty that a majority of Russians may now suffer as the loss of oil revenues and related income diminish, or of the interests of Russian entrepreneurs, or of global market forces which will open up with a predictable US led backing down on sanctions.

  25. #for “diminish” read kick in

  26. @ Allan Christie

    Pressman:
    “it could lead to serious civil unrest (IMO)”

    You’re up Allan :-)

  27. Scotland crossbreak in last night’s Yougov

    SNP 47
    Lab 22
    Con 13
    LD 9
    Green 3

    So I think we have had enough poll cross breaks now all showing the same thing – delivering the vow does not appear to have made any material impact to Scotland voting intention, clear SNP lead remains, no Labour recovery.

  28. 7% of the 2010 Labour vote is also now voting Conservative, continuing the trend we saw picking up last week of increased direct switching from Labour to Conservatives.

  29. “The public will get it right, they always do.”

    ————-

    No they don’t, they get things wrong, all the live-long day. They drive too fast in the wet, eat the wrong foods, buy homes on flood plains, vote for short term gain for long term pain… ask some of the ex-lib dems if they still think they got it right… or the Americans about Nixon… even where the public may feel they got it right – e.g. boomers getting special treatment ‘cos of their voting power – doesn’t mean it was great for the rest.

    And then there’s the tax on storage: I rest my case…

  30. “So I think we have had enough poll cross breaks now all showing the same thing –delivering the vow does not appear to have made any material impact to Scotland voting intention, clear SNP lead remains, no Labour recovery.”

    ——

    possibly because they wanna make sure it is actually delivered, and sensing a tight election, may feel there is more mileage in holding the balance of power.

    Especially when devolution insulates them from the Westminster outcome somewhat already…

  31. Carfrew
    You’re confusing individual behaviour with the wisdom of crowds. In other words, the overall result of the election can be right, even if certain groups aren’t very happy.

    It is arguable that a coalition in 2010 was the ‘right’ result. It was time for a change, but the Tories hadn’t made a strong enough case to be fully trusted by the electorate.

  32. @PETE B

    “Carfrew You’re confusing individual behaviour with the wisdom of crowds. In other words, the overall result of the election can be right, even if certain groups aren’t very happy”

    You’d apply that to driving too fast in the wet would you? Or Nixon? Anyway, split votes frustrates the wisdom of crowds, and wholesale manifesto reversals etc.

  33. And a powerful voting block can frustrate things too. They can vote for goodness for themselves – eg maintaining nice pensions – while seeing worse pensions for those that follow…

  34. Are crowds really always that wise? They can do some scary things…

  35. Not just Russia.

    Petro-currencies are being hammered-including Norway & Canada.

    Reports that the Saudis reckon it will take 6 months of overproduction & lower prices to see off the US fracking industry.

    But all significant producers are suffering-especially high cost deposits. Reports than Canadian Tar Sands viability is being tested.

    Meanwhile net importers are smiling-like UK. :-)

  36. ‘“The public will get it right, they always do.”

    Hitler…

  37. @Pressman

    The majority of recent polls show that even if we only consider votes and not seats, Labour is still ahead in England. In fact, the SNP surge makes that trend even more likely to continue.

    Not that it matters. We are electing a UK government not an English one – you know that entity that includes Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as well as England?

  38. Agadoo.

    oh, and The tragedy of the commons Stuff that’s individually rational but collectively leaves somethibg to be desired.

  39. @Colin

    Why bother seeing off fracking though? Since it only seems to be a temporary thing? Why not just enjoy higher prices and wait for fracking to run out of gas, as it were?…

  40. Given that GRN are almost level with LD, and given that – unlike UKIP – they actually won a seat at a General Election, shouldn’t they be included on the UKPR too?

    I can’t see any reason why they should be excluded and UKIP included?

  41. Good morning. I hope this post won’t fall into moderation, not sure why that is happening.

    There appears to be no evidence for Pressman’s claim that the majority of England wants a Tory government. Indeed, because of Labour’s collapse in Scotland recently the polls suggest they must be, relatively speaking, stronger in England. There also appears to be no evidence for Kellner’s view that the Tories will get a first-time incumbency bonus. MS has debunked that particularly theory in fairly short order over on my old stomping ground.

  42. the saudis are fools if they think lower oil prices will end fracking…it would have been as stupid as hansom cab owners trying to “see off” the automobile taxis by lowering their fares.

  43. Have been away. I see, following the Ashcroft Miliband seat poll debacle, that the Daily Mail (Andrew Pierce) is still running that the seat is in danger, but they have modified the wording from yesterday, a bit. Other outlets are printing full retractions. If you Google ‘Miliband seat’ you can discover who is being straightforward and who not.

  44. “Given that GRN are almost level with LD”

    i.e. Behind in every poll shown above.

  45. ‘“The public will get it right, they always do.”
    35 – 40% have not voted in general elections this century. In other elections this can rise as high as 80%. I suppose expressing no preference means you are always right.

  46. @Ben Foley (FPT+1)
    “Not that old chestnut again. It’s stale, and it was always pretty irrelevant. The election was actually delivered to Bush 5 votes to 4, despite the count in Florida being biassed and there being irregularities in the conduct of the election.”

    The fact is, had Nader not stood as a Green, and gained 100,000 votes in an election with a margin of 537, the US Supreme Court would never have become involved and so Bush would not have become US president. I can understand why you might be sensitive to people bringing that up, but it remains relevant when we’re considering how fringe parties competing to split votes on the left under FPTP can in practice deliver right wing governments.

  47. Roger Mexico
    This is the only way I can congratulate you and your colleague from that other polling site. You have done us all proud (looking for reflected glory here) and great that Anthony took up the issue. It can’t have been easy to have done so with a competing firm, but it is comforting to see that there is a collegiate relationship between the pollsters.

  48. @Howard

    The Mail is acting as though nothing’s changed this morning:

    “His lead is reckoned to be 12 points, way down on the 26-point margin he secured in 2010.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2855461/ANDREW-PIERCE-Clegg-Red-Ed-ex-MPs.html

    They updated the report this morning, but not that bit. So it would appear that the Mail is happy to wilfully publish downright falsehoods. I suppose that might be news to a few.

  49. BERNARD SIMPSON

    Me too, and i still think the Tories will have a small majority. Current polling does not dismay me at all, in fact i think the movement in the polls over the last 12 months or so point to that result.

  50. @Richard

    “delivering the vow does not appear to have made any material impact to Scotland voting intention, clear SNP lead remains, no Labour recovery.”

    Two things.

    1) The Smith Commission has not provided the powers listed in ‘The Vow’.

    2) The vow has not been delivered; only outlined.

    In other words, if and when any powers are actually delivered, they will fall short of what was promised. It’s no great surprise that Scots are not shifting their voting intention.

1 2 3 11