We have our usual rush of Monday polls today, all showing a slightly healthier Labour lead than of late.

The first of Populus‘s two twice weekly polls had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% (tabs). Populus’s average so far this month has been CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, so this has the Conservatives a little lower than usual, UKIP a little higher than usual.

Lord Ashcroft‘s weekly poll had topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7% (tabs). Compared to his recent polls this has the Conservatives down a tad, Labour and UKIP both up a tad.

The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%. YouGov’s average figures so far this month have been CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% – so again, the Conservatives lower than usual, UKIP higher than usual.

None of the figures are different enough from recent polls to be sure the difference isn’t just normal sample variation, but the fact all three are showing a shift in the same direction (Conservatives down, UKIP up) means it’s possible we are seeing a bit of a publicity boost for UKIP following Rochester & Strood last week. Time will tell. Note also what it doesn’t show – any decrease in Labour’s support following several days of fussing about White Vans and Emily Thornberry.


365 Responses to “Latest Populus, Ashcroft and YouGov polls”

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  1. @Hoof Hearted

    I think there’s scope for UKIP to be more thinly spread during the General Election if they play it badly. The Conservatives can (traditionally) rely on a certain amount of support in given local areas. UKIP less so, so have to go out there and sell themselves.

    Yes, if they make a point of putting some resources into Clacton and R&S, they ought to hold them (the former more easily). I’m not convinced that the UKIP-voting Conservatives in the by-elections will be UKIP-voting in 2015.

    I have a feeling that it will be come a Con / UKIP marginal, with the Conservatives taking it back, but again, that depends largely on Reckless and UKIP’s campaign.

  2. @Dave

    I really can’t argue with any of your points on my points. To be honest, I was using the last few paragraphs to voice my thoughts on the whole thing being a little complicated. It could go either way.

    I still feel that the Conservatives will take it back, per the reasons given already. Perhaps another reason might be that the ‘vote UKIP – get Labour’ narrative will be in full swing by then too. Whether it works or has a detrimental effect on the Con VI is unclear. Also that for the General Election, the scrutiny will be far higher on UKIP’s policies.

    The only constant that I come across from 2010 to the present is that the voters tend to elect the more positive party (very safe seats aside). I think the electorate are desperate for positive, worthwhile leadership, with no hint of corruption on the horizon. I think the party and leader that actually starts to lead (not bully or bribe) the electorate will win convincingly. I’m not convinced that 2015 will see such a leader.

  3. @StatGeek – “I think there’s scope for UKIP to be more thinly spread during the General Election if they play it badly.”

    Have UKIP played anything that badly over the past four and a half years? From where I sit, their strategy has been handled excellently.

  4. LEFTYLAMPTON

    Do you remember that Redwood backed Clarke in the final round of voting? Now THAT would have been a fun shadow cabinet.

  5. Gary Gibbon finds Labour MPs in a very depressed state – rather unnecessarily I’d have thought (except, perhaps, for LiS MPs concerned about keeping their seats).

    http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/scottish-labour-despair/29709

  6. Oldnat

    Just as well the SNP don’t want Independence any more eh?

    :-)

  7. UKIP was said to be the party of the Golf Club so let me use that to highlight a problem they may have with keeping their older traditional UKIP supporters. They started off as a private golf club mainly made up of old tories in jaguar cars and now they are trying to drag their members into becoming a municipal golf club to attract the white van golfer. This could be a problem.

    They have a wing of the party that will not be happy with the change of mind on the NHS as many would support a USA style healthcare system. And also will not wish to see any change to the top rate tax proposal of max 40p.

    They then have a new wing (ex labour) that will dislike a further cut from 45p top rate tax to 40p and more private business being involved in the NHS (But free at the point of entry)

    Interesting to see how they manage expectations

  8. Can we please not get into a discussion about each other’s personal opinion of Tony Blair (or other PM’s!). What polls suggest the public think or thought about them is of course fine.

  9. Sam
    Health inequalities?
    A sceptic would say that you could hardly have more re-distribution in Scottish terms. Labour was commited to a strong form of devo-max until 1945 and the reason it didn’t happen was the difficulty in coping with the speed of decline in West Central Scotland. The scale of public spending has been showing results but the gap is still gaping. Part of the solution must quite simply consist of helping people to move from areas of very low private sector activity to areas with better job markets. In Aberdeen one person in eight has moved there from abroad but very few come from west central Scotland

  10. Re: Comres poll.

    Labour only up 2% on 2010, but Cons down 6%, so being squeezed by ukip.
    It does show these 40 will go Labour, and probably the next 40 too.
    At the moment only the loss of Scottish seats,to cost labour an OM.

    Interesting that only 52% wouldn’t consider voting ukip, would have thought well over 60% wouldn’t consider ukip, especially in marginals. Ukip could turn many marignals into a 3 way fight, in certain areas. Although they may come 3rd in most, on current polling. I do know ukip are going to target up to 100 marginals, although the big spending will be limited to only a few seats.

    Ashcroft marginals will be interesting.

  11. @Chris Green

    “Have UKIP played anything that badly over the past four and a half years? From where I sit, their strategy has been handled excellently.”

    They haven’t had as high a profile in a General Election as they will have in 2015. It will depend on if UKIP can reign in / silence their ‘less restrained’ members.

  12. Barney Crockett

    Sam,
    Health inequalities?
    A sceptic would say that you could hardly have more re-distribution in Scottish terms. Labour was commited to a strong form of devo-max until 1945 and the reason it didn’t happen was the difficulty in coping with the speed of decline in West Central Scotland. The scale of public spending has been showing results but the gap is still gaping. Part of the solution must quite simply consist of helping people to move from areas of very low private sector activity to areas with better job markets. In Aberdeen one person in eight has moved there from abroad but very few come from west central Scotland

    Barney,
    It is the poor that are affected by health inequalities. Certainly, the speed of de-industrialisation in WCS was marked in comparison with other European countries.

    I find some of the research fascinating. For example, in Poland in 1992 the health of the population showed a marked improvement. Can you guess the reason?

    The research in Scotland is clear about what is needed to address the issue. First, policies that re-distribute power, money and resources: examples include a minimum wage for healthy living and ensuring that the welfare system provides enough income for healthy living and reduces stigma for recipients through universal provision in proportion to need.

    There is much more to it. I doubt if we will be able to devote much time to discussion of the subject. At least not on this thread.

    Crockett sounds like a good Scottish name. My family thought itself related to Davy C through the Graham side.

    Sam

  13. Fascinated by the idea of Christine Grahame contesting Berwick for the SNP.

    It’s the seat I grew up in and my parents still live (and vote) there.

    Firstly let me say – she won’t win.

    However this is the perfect time to contest it. It’s basically a safe Tory shire seat which just hasn’t had a Tory representing it for 40 years.

    Alan Beith won it at a by-election in 1973 after the Lord Lambton call girl scandal, held on in 1974 and has then built up a personal vote ever since. Natural Tories and Labour voters alike vote for him every time and are going to be looking for a new home next year.

    The Conservative candidate Anne-Marie Trevelyan has campaigned relentlessly on a dual the A1 platform and is a strong favourite but expect an announcement on A1 dualling – probably the Morpeth Felton section – from George Osborne next week to try and seal the deal.

    Christine could potentially take the Alan Beith personal / Anyone but Tory / betrayed by Lib Dems / expat Scots / general protest vote and pick up 10-15% of the vote to come third.

    There’s certainly an audience in Northumberland for a none of the above protest candidate. Could it be Christine Grahame?

  14. Oops posted in wrong thread. Reposted on new one.

  15. And on another election, just for interest –

    In Australia the state of Victoria has just held an election (view it as sort of the equivalent of Holyrood++). The sitting Conservative government lost the election, being the first Victorian government since 1955 to not win two terms. Labor won. Noticeable results include Greens winning their first lower house seat (and possibly up to three); the Upper House results probably not giving Labour a majority (Greens five seats; assorted minor parties as well…)

    Reason? First a plague on all your parties syndrome is well known in Australia. So, once a party is in power in Canberra then watch that party be voted out at State level. Something of the same can be argued about Holyrood. Secondly increasing Green support due to the right wing nature of the Conservatives (noticeably its ‘disbelief on global warming and such like)….

    Australia is a Federal country,due not least to it starting out as independent colonies.

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