Full tabs for the YouGov/Sun on Sunday poll are now up here. The slightly larger sample than usual was to make sure they had a good sub-sample of Sun readers, which the Sun used in yesterday’s analysis of the poll to look at what their own readers thought. The Express, however, has decided to report the Sun reader crossbreak as a national poll – obviously it wins the coveted UKPR crap media reporting of polls award. Just to be crystal clear UKIP are not in second place in this poll. The headline figures for this poll were CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%. The figures quoted in the Express relate only to respondents who read the Sun.


160 Responses to “No, UKIP aren’t in second place”

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  1. @Pressman

    “Very few people have sympathy with these strikers”

    I think you mean, very few people where you work. You should try getting out more.

  2. I draw the honourable gentlefolk of this esteemed forum to the Ashcroft England poll I referred to earlier….

    It’s clearly an outlier, and comes with all the usual Ashcroft poll caveats, but when was the last time Lab were 6% ahead in England?

  3. “Lib Dem figures are very interesting; maybe they will achieve double figures on May 7th/8th.”

    Not likely.

    I struggle to work out if they are left of labour, to the right, in the. Centre…
    Are they just anti another party vote.

  4. @Statgeek

    I’ve noticed for a long time that people are more likely to comment on polls when they’re in the direction they would like. It’s a natural inclination and none of us can claim to be immune from it. I think the same applies to comments on crossbreaks in Scotland. The problem with crossbreaks is that many people don’t bother to search them out, so if people only find out about them by comments they read here, they’re liable to form a misleading impression of the overall picture.

    To sum up the two polls in Scotland:
    Ashcroft – Labour is doomed
    Populus – Labour isn’t doomed (but takes a battering) (and contrary to what Couper reported, it’s SNP 44, Lab 31, C 16, LD 5)

  5. @Lurker – 4.34

    Guilty as charged – and not showing any signs of contrition!

    As for the two Scottish crossbreaks, both showing difficulties for Labour, not for the first time I’m noticing that in these polls when the certainty to vote is down a bit, Labour do better. That is to say, the SNP can win handsomely in May, but only if they are really convincing. Labour is still the ‘fall back’ position for many Scots.

  6. Colin
    Oh your poor daughter. But it doesn’t sound as though she has allowed it to put her off people.
    I do believe, apart from a few bad apples, that essentially people are decent and want to help each other.

  7. Valerie

    Life has to go on-as I’m sure you prove every day Valerie.

    Yes I agree with you.

  8. @unicorn – yours of 6.14

    Many thanks for giving us the results of your hard work. The possibility that Labour may have the largest number of seats and attempting to form a government with 31.47% of the vote, the LDs reduced to a rump, UKIP failing to win more than a couple of seats but having 17%+ and the Tories trying to come to terms with having only 31.5% is intriguing.

    Correction – quite terrifying! How could anyone possibly claim a mandate to govern on such figures?

    If the SNP end up with, say, 25 seats, then Labour could find themselves faced with the choice between a non-coalition arrangement with the SNP, which will include lots of commitments which Labour would hate, and a coalition ‘in the national interest’ with the Tories – something which makes the mind boggle.

  9. @Phil Haines

    Poll of polls all Scottish crossbreaks weighted from Number cruncher.

    SNP 43
    Labour 25
    Con 16
    LD 6
    Ukip 5

    SNP membership 92k+ heading for 100k.

  10. What on earth is a “Twitter storm”??
    Ye gods…

  11. The advantage presently enjoyed by Labour under FPTP is far from being a fixture. It was interesting watching the recent reshowing of the BBC 1964 Results programme to hear the commentators point out that Labour needed a bigger % lead than the Tories to gain a clear majority.

  12. @COLIN 3:45 pm
    O.T.
    I’m guessing and hoping that it is long enough ago for your daughter to have recovered physically, emotionally and financially from the attack. Few people who arent disabled really know how disabled people have a justified fear of crime (message to people who want to help without scaring the express-reporting-of-polls out of a wheelchair user: wait until the wheelchair user asks for help!).

    One side issue struck me:
    Hopefully the t***er who carried out the robbery at least had some vague notion they were doing wrong.

    By contrast all too often those who park on pavements think that they are ‘doing the right thing’ by getting their vehicle out of the way of traffic, and don’t have enough imagination to realise they are forcing wheelchair users, parents with push chairs etc out into the same traffic.

  13. @Peter Crawford – yours of 6.51

    Yes, Labour are ahead in the polls, but not by much, and not by enough to be sure at this stage of gaining an overall majority.

    On the other hand the Tories seem stuck, with UKIP taking a chunk out of their VIs, and the LDs, although improving slightly, don’t seem to be regaining much by way of public esteem.

    Labour’s problem, as I interpret the polls, is that the political right (anti-EU etc) will have a much higher total of votes than Labour and perhaps even than Labour and the LDs combined. Of course, this will not be the first time that such a ‘democratic deficit’ has occurred – the 1980s saw the same thing in the opposite direction – but given the choices which will have to be made after the next GE has the Labour party the necessary will-power to push through whatever it considers will need to be done? Perhaps EM is currently being ‘refined by fire’ and will emerge triumphant…. you never know!

  14. @Phil

    I generally just report them based on little snippets of interesting factoids (i.e. a given poll might mean total wipeout for a party).

  15. @Unicorn

    Very intetesting theory. Of course we can’t apply it to Scotland as SNP would be on 250% by polling day. But it does seem to fit the almost imperceptible poll movements over the last two years or so.

  16. Alright, a bit of Twitter analytics to go over before I go off to record my podcast. The three Labour hashtags over the last couple of weeks – #WeBackEd, #6MonthsToWin and #CameronMustGo – have had 362285 tweets between them.

    With the average Twitter user at 61 followers as of December 2013, as a raw figure we get 22,000,000 views or potential views. Obviously, this is an overestimation – many of those people will have followers in common, not all of them will see it, and some of them will disagree. Not all the tweets would be deliberate or supportive either, and we have no guarantee that those tweeted are of average Twitter demographics and therefore that they have an average amount of followers.

    But nevertheless, that’s some mightily impressive Twitter coverage that probably runs into the millions of views. Not sure how much was Brewers Green and how much was grassroots but the social media machine seems effective – the question is how well it changes minds.

  17. Jasper22,
    I guess a twitter storm is what buried the career of a highly intelligent shadow
    Attorney General.And intelligent people do make mistakes all the time.Hopefully they learn from them.

  18. Unicorn,
    Is there any chance of doing similar maths on the Green shares, please? I can see that Wikipedia has them for all polls since 1 Jan 2014 except 2 TNS/BMRB polls (where they are irretrievably lumped in with ‘others’)?

    Thanks

    Ann yng Gymru
    Something struck me today. What on earth was that “highly intelligent shadow Attorney General” doing there, given it was a by-election that Labour werent really putting effort into?

  19. @couper

    “Poll of polls all Scottish crossbreaks weighted from Number cruncher.”

    For what it’s worth, here’s my current 25-poll, weighted MAD averages:

    UK*
    Con 32.6
    Lab 32.9
    Lib 6.9
    UKIP 15.7
    Green 6.1
    Other 5.1

    London
    Con 33.7
    Lab 37.9
    Lib 8.0
    UKIP 11.0
    Green 7.5
    Other 1.0

    Rest of South
    Con 40.0
    Lab 24.8
    Lib 9.0
    UKIP 19.2
    Green 6.8
    Other 1.2

    Mids & Wales
    Con 33.7
    Lab 32.9
    Lib 6.1
    UKIP 17.0
    Green 5.0
    Other 3.2

    North
    Con 26.5
    Lab 43.9
    Lib 5.0
    UKIP 16.1
    Green 6.0
    Other 0.9

    Scotland
    Con 17.5
    Lab 25.2
    Lib 5.1
    SNP 41.7
    UKIP 4.8
    Green 4.3
    Other 0.8

    *Said UK data is calculated from the sum of the regional MAD calcs, rather than the MAD of the UK data. The differences are generally minimal.

    If I try to equate all that into the Electoral Calculus predictor (it’s hard to convert YG’s data to the EC site), I get approximate seats of:

    Labour 300
    Conservative 270
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 15
    Others 20 (18 being Northern Ireland)

  20. STATGEEK.
    Fantastic details. thank you..

  21. @MrNameless

    Alright, a bit of Twitter analytics to go over ….
    __________________________________________

    Ahhh, I missed that over the weekend, but it looks like there was a major social media campaign by Labour over the weekend.

    Social Media vs the mainstream press, who won?

    Well so far it looks like social media, lets see what Yougov says tonight…

  22. Ann in Wales

    Highly intelligent people should steer well clear of the infantile Twitter. A medium for self obsessed neurotics.
    And she should never have resigned/been sacked. A lot of froth and nonsense.

  23. @Statgeek

    Thanks from me too.

  24. @Unicorn

    I’ve looked at such data some months ago, and found it delivered poor r squared values.

    I even looked at data running up to previous elections and most regression types (linear, expotential etc) were basically very inaccurate vs the real results.

    Interesting exercise regardless :-)

  25. @Statgeek

    Many thanks for yours of 8.21

    Presumably ‘others’ not including Northern Ireland (what of Mr. Speaker?) might be Green and/or UKIP.

    If UKIP are going to have an impact at the GE it doesn’t look as though they’re going to have more than a handful of seats, and those will be at Tory expense. Perhaps their impact will be in allowing more Labour victories…

  26. Jasper22

    “Twitter. A medium for self obsessed neurotics.”

    I’m sure that is just as accurate a description of online posters everywhere.

    Mind you, it seems unwise, on this site, to describe Anthony Wells as a “self obsessed neurotic”.

    Many of us would consider that appellation more appropriate for those who want to describe Anthony in such terms.

  27. @Statgeek
    What you have labelled UK data is surely GB data in that Northern Ireland is not included in these polls?

  28. PHIL HAINES

    “The problem with crossbreaks is that many people don’t bother to search them out, so if people only find out about them by comments they read here, they’re liable to form a misleading impression of the overall picture”
    ______

    LOL oh crickey we couldnt have that can we? I think the British public are blessed in the knowledge that you will keep them right.

    I really don’t think some of the comments on here will change the outcome of the election but who knows? With the polls so tight, even a minor slip up or stray tweet could probably swing it.

  29. The Twitter hashtags #webackEd & #cameronmustgo were not organised by Labour but by grassroots supporters of Labour.

    I think the #6monthstowin is the only one created by the Labour Party.

  30. @John B

    Speaker is always counted within Conservatives on EC’s site as far as I know. I assume of ‘Others’ they are 2 Plaid Cymru. In fact, I’d be pretty sure it would be 3 for PC, so that would be 44 for SNP (I was giving approximations in the last post).

    No sign of Greens or UKIP or any other party on the mainland.

    @Graham

    Indeed. Should we ask Anthony to rename the site “GB Polling Report” ?

    ;)

  31. Statgeek

    He probably should, but your following Anthony’s mislabelling is hardly a defence of your own solecism.

  32. John B

    Arrrggghhh! Yet another intelligent person in here making the assumption that UKIP’s support belongs to the political Right. UKIP may well be a party that is far to the right of Thatcher. But they have gained supporters who were previously supporting parties well to the left of Cameron.

    I’m not sure if I’m being spectacularly stupid here, but it seems blindingly obvious to me when I look at the poll trends over the past 24 months: at least as many of UKIP’s recent converts are erstwhile Labour supporters as are ex-Tories. Now, these ex-Lab supporters have not slid along the spectrum from Miliband to Clegg to Cameron to Farage. They’ve gone straight from one end to the other. Because (it seems to me) that they are not natural supporters if all things Right. But they have been captivated by Farage who has convincingly claimed to be their spokesman, whilst very carefully sticking to dig whistles and saying next to nothing about what UKIP REALLY wants on economic, education or health policy.

    To say that a vote for UKIP would be a vote for the Right, and a Lab victory with a 50+% Right vote would mean a democratic deficit is an unjustifiable assertion.

  33. Lefty

    “They’ve gone straight from one end to the other”

    That statement only makes sense in uni-dimensional politics.

    While I understand that the two largest GB parties want to define politics in these somewhat archaic 20th century terms, out of self interest, that doesn’t reflect the multi dimensional aspects of modern politics.

    Uni-dimensional politics are only appropriate for those who find the concept of a flat earth too complicated to deal with.

  34. @Leftylampton

    Sorry – I need to clarify.

    UKIP has taken votes from Labour, certainly, but what is not clear is that they have/will have taken enough from Labour for Labour to lose seats to either UKIP or the Tories (or anyone else, for that matter).

    What I think is clear is that UKIP will take enough votes from the Tories – unless Cameron can do a lot better than he is doing at the moment – for at least a few Tory seats to fall to UKIP if present levels are sustained.

    Whilst it is true that UKIP are gathering support from many in the ‘working classes’, it is not clear to me that those people were always either voters or, if they were, that they always voted Labour. Many were, but not always in seats represented by Labour.

    As for my views on the ‘democratic deficiency’, they are not aimed at complaining about any particular outcome. They are aimed at pointing out the problem of trying to govern a country deeply divided (as it was in the 1908s, for example) but also trying to govern said country without anything like a solid and stable majority (unlike the 1980s).

    Having said all that, your advice to be more cautious is taken on board…

  35. @Pressman

    “Very few people have sympathy with these strikers; ”

    You seem to have omitted to indicate the polling or other evidence you have for that assertion. Most people I know think it’s outrageous that the government has refused to honour the pay review body recommendations.

    Apart from anything else, it is idiotic as it sets a malign precedent. It will now be impossible to resolve any future dispute by agreeing to establish a pay review body – why would anyone agree to something that the government will ignore when it suits them?

  36. As things stand at present, UKIP will take enough votes from the Tories in Southern marginals, for Labour to win, even with their own vote slightly reduced. UKIP will also take a number of votes, from everyone, in Labour seats which Labour will hold with reduced majorities. UKIP are still a Tory plague.

    @OLDNAT

    The concept of a flat earth is indeed very complicated. You need supporting elephants, turtles and God knows what else. Can’t get my head round it at all.

  37. ON

    Yeah, OK. I’d forgotten all of those cuddly old-style left-wing policies that UKIP espouse.

    I appreciate that a strong UKIP in England would be a great boon to your project, but that shouldn’t stop you from thinking “spade” when you see a spade. UKIP is as traditional an old-style right wing party as you’ll see. They espouse nationalism (as opposed to internationalism) and pre-War economic and social policies. I’m not sure, in your multi-faceted view, where the connections are between their policies and the ideals of the million or so voters who now support them, having voted LD in 2010, and supported Labour in 2011/12.

  38. John B

    All taken on board. My main gripe was with the idea that, say, Con:33% and UKIP:17% = 50% of the electorate actively supporting the Right. I suspect ON would be even more upset than me at that assumption.

  39. Tom Newton Dunn [email protected] 1m1 minute ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Respite for Ed Mili as 4 point lead back with UKIP’s Rochester bounce. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18%, LDEM 6

  40. With that LD score, there must be a chance of Green tie or even lead.

  41. Now someone on here a few weeks ago (no names mentioned) was telling me how the bookies never get it wrong, they have excellent inside info etc etc etc when I posted one of the Scottish polls showing the SNP look set to win most seats.

    He fumed… “BUT THE BOOKIES HAVE LAB AS FAVS TO WIN MOST SEATS IN SCOTLAND AND THE NEVER GET IT WRONG”

    Hmmm…. For the first time SNP now favourites with Ladbrokes to win most Scottish seats at GE15…….

    Anyone for a polo?

  42. That con 30% is their lowest YG score since the 9th October.

  43. CATMANJEFF
    With that LD score, there must be a chance of Green tie or even lead
    ______

    I think you’re right because it leaves others with 12% although a tie will probably be the most likely.

  44. Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 1m 1 minute ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by four: CON 30%, LAB 34%, LD 6%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%

    []

  45. Social Media 3, Mainstream media 0

    Well done whoever it was that did the twitter campaign. Democracy in action!

  46. That’s three good polls for Labour today then.

    []

  47. Of course, one poll is one poll. and it is very likely that the Conservative score is a bottom of MOE bump, due once in a while.

  48. New thread…

  49. @Statgeek
    ‘Speaker is always counted within Conservatives on EC’s site as far as I know.”

    That caused me to recall the only time I can ever remember the full House of Commons tied on a crucial EU vote. All eyes were on the Speaker of the day (Labour’s Betty Boothroyd) to see whether the Opposition motion would be carried. Major’s government was hanging by a thread. Betty followed convention and voted with the government. I can’t recall whether this was because the convention is that the Speaker should favour the government in a tied vote, or whether it is that in these circumstances the Speakers votes against the motion (and for thr status quo), the House having failed to support it (it being tied).

  50. RAF – Speaker Denison’s Rule determines the Speakers vote – essentially the Speaker always votes in a way to allow debate to continue, or if it can’t to preserve the status quo (so they vote in favour of a Bill at 2nd reading or report so the bill can continue to be discussed, but against when it comes to 3rd reading to preserve the status quo.

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