Sunday polls

There are three polls in this Sunday’s papers – Opinium in the Observer and two separate YouGov polls, one in the Sunday Times and one in the Sun on Sunday.

Opinium has topline voting intention figures of CON 30%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 19%(nc), GRN 4%(nc) (changes are from their last published voting intention figures a fortnight ago (tabs are here).

YouGov’s two sets of voting intention figures are CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15% in the Sun on Sunday poll, and CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% in the Sunday Times (Sun Times tabs are here, Sun on Sunday should be up tomorrow) – so still showing the two main parties very close to one another.


130 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. The Other Howard,

    As I said, voting is full of compromises. It’s like eating at a restaurant: it’s unlikely that they have EXACTLY what you want on the menu, but they may have something worth eating that is the best of the alternatives.

  2. Statgeek wrote
    “Sadly, all comments must end. SNP 46% today. Labour 25%. A twenty one percent lead suggests that the SNP will have 50 seats, Lab 6, Con 2 and Lib 1.
    At Westminster we’re looking at Lab 295 (31 short), Con 271 (55 short), SNP 50, Lib 13, Others 21.”

    Sorry to disobey you (first sentence).

    This means Rest UK is Lab 289 Con 269 LD 12 Others 21

    Would it mean Miliband could offer devolution ‘maxi maxi’ to SNP and not have to rush to a constitutional conference, as he could carry on with English only legislation without worrying about rushing to PR, while depending on SNP for UK legislation about C and S?

    What would the LDs do?

  3. @mactavish
    You say that you are going to be partisan and then say
    “Uk has moved to a one party state by continuously voting for Labour party no matter how damaging the country their leader has been”.

    That is a new one on me. I have heard the Labour party criticised but not just the leader. Therefore if you have a different leader it’s all right then?

    Let me put my non-partisan point of view. I would guess that I am older than you and go back further than you. I was born in 1948. I remember the Wilson government very well.

    It used to be said, comparing Britain with other countries, that Britain had one of the most unsuccessful opposition parties in the Western world. Labour did not hold office very often, compared with opposition parties in other countries. It goes back through the 1950s and before the war. In other words Labour has a long way to go to match the periods in office of the Conservative party.

    The newspapers we have in Britain and their political preferences date back presumably to the long periods when the Conservatives were called ‘the natural party of government’. I don’t know if you remember that expression, but some posters, probably many of them, will do so.

  4. I found this question interesting from the Sunday Times Yougov

    On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means you definitely won’t vote for them, and 10 means you definitely will vote for them, how likely are you to vote for the following parties?

    Taking scores of 6-10 for each party excluding their own supporters:

    Labour
    – From current
    Conservatives – 4
    Lib Dems – 25
    UKIP – 8

    Conservative
    – From current
    Labour 2
    Lib Dems 20
    UKIP 18

    Lib Dems
    – From current
    Labour 6
    Cons 9
    UKIP 2

    UKIP
    – From current
    Cons 17
    Lab 5
    LD 3

    So in summary, if we are going to see mass movement, it will be from these groupings:

    Conservative to UKIP – 17% of current Conservative vote may move
    UKIP to Conservative – 18% of current UKIP vote may move

    And then the main movements are going to be to/from Lib Dems to Conservative or Labour.

    Labour looks like they are nearly at a floor with UKIP defections. (only 5% of their voters may still move) The Tories still have a lot to lose/gain against UKIP.

  5. Of course it would have been good to have had a similar table for the Greens and the SNP, given how close they are to the Lib Dem VI, so we can see how firm their votes are, and if they are not firm, where they are likely to go.

    I think the election next year is really going to come down to a Tory vs UKIP battle. If the Tories reclaim their UKIP supporters without leaking too much to the Lib Dems (note their 9% of voters considering the Lib Dems), then they win. If they fail, Labour wins. The Greens will mostly head back to Labour, we saw that in the Rochester by election, their vote simply collapses in a FPTP scenario.

  6. There’s currently a bit of a Twitter frenzy about a new poll in the Express showing Labour down to 25% behind UKIP on 28%.

    It is apparently the first poll taken after the last few days of Emily Thornberry on the front pages.

    HOWEVER, the Express link given doesn’t work.

    Anyone know anything about this?

  7. John P,

    Looks like shenanigans to me.

  8. @John P

    Given its provenance that looks like a voodoo poll.

  9. I don’t think the poll will be a specific Express poll.

    If it was Labour would be under 10%.

  10. Can’t find any evidence of it beyond the broken link.

    Anyway it would hardly be great for UKIP as the Tories would win a majority – the poll allegedly has them on 38%.

    Some quick maths tells me that such a poll would leave every other party – Lib Dems, SNP, Greens, all the other Others – on 9% between them. Clegg, Sturgeon and Bennett won’t have collapsed that far.

    If it is the case, it’s a poll of Express readers or something.

  11. @MrNameless

    Possibly an Express readers poll, though if it was you would surely have UKIP up towards 40% and LAB in single figures… One tweet, from a UKIP supporter called David Jones, says it is a ‘YouGov poll’ though that would surprise me…

  12. Bill P

    Aye, but if the thing on the menu closest to your heart is only served raw at your eaterie of choice, you don’t pick that in order to send a message to the chef, and hence have your ideal food prepared perfectly for you decades down the line. You choose the dish that is going to fill your belly and moderately tickle your palate now.

  13. @Howard

    “No idea” – to all questions. Looking forward to watching the results as they come in though. :))

  14. I’ve just finished my latest Scottish analysis…Toplines are SNP 43 (+1) LAB 25 (-1) CON 17 (=) LIB 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (+1) GRN 4 (=). This is another all-time high for the SNP at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems. I’ve already posted most of my thoughts on the Survation poll on these threads, but in case you missed it and/or what to see some pretty charts, here’s a recap:

    http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/scotland-update-new-weighted-model-same.html

    We also have a new ‘nowcast’ from the UEA/LSE/Durham collaboration, with toplines of SNP 42 LAB 32 CON 12 LIB 7 GRN 4 UKIP 2. This model is based on GB polling and microdata, but for technical reasons, not dedicated Scottish polls. Due to methological changes, these figures aren’t directly comparable to the ones I’ve published previously. The main differences versus the aggregation are Labour being higher and UKIP and the Conservatives lower.

  15. Shevii – “But the biggest issue is the state of the LD party after the next election. Every chance they will be around 30-35 seats and a party that will be looking inward as much as outward.”

    Does anyone else find it amusing that it will be FPTP that prevents the LibDems from being completely obliterated? In a PR system they’d have just a handful of seats…

  16. I’ve been smirking with amusement over that fact for about two years. It is entirely possible that the SNP might be a bigger parliamentary group than the Liberal Democrats.

  17. Damian Green, a senior Tory, wrote some interesting stuff in a piece in today’s Observer and commented directly on a subject that is often debated here on UKPR. Here’s what he had to say: –

    “Equally absurd is the argument that you can add the Ukip vote to the Tory vote and create a majority. Political parties don’t own voters (as Labour discovered in Scotland) and many millions of Conservative voters would be horrified if we adopted Ukip policies. Ukip may have started on the far right, but now is populist on the left or the right, depending on what gives it a short-term advantage. This is the antithesis of responsible Conservatism.”

    He also went on to say: –

    “Any proposal for a deal between Conservatives and Ukip before the general election is for the birds. Conservatives fight every seat in Great Britain because we are a national party and believe in giving every voter the chance to vote Conservative. If the Conservative party told me it wasn’t bothering to run where I lived, and instead wanted me to vote Ukip, I would refuse. For me it would be a matter of principle, but even at the level of low politics there is nothing in this for either party. They cannot deliver voters to each other, because now more than ever voters will make up their mind as independent citizens.”

    He also said some things that I thought were complacent and misguided, but much of what he wrote I agreed with. I think people like Green and David Davis, who also wrote a thoughtful piece about UKIP today, might well be the sort of critical friends that the Tories need right now rather than those feeding it messages it wants to hear.

  18. Crossbat11 – I think the Conservatives are hoping for another coalition with the LibDems if they don’t get a majority.

    The difficulty being that they hope to gain the LibDem seats in the south-west (which should offset Tory losses to UKIP in Kent), so that leaves them hoping the LibDems hold on in Scotland.

    What do our Scottish posters think – any chance of the LibDems holding on in Scotland?

  19. @Crossbat11

    Yes, I am fully in agreement with that snippet of Damian Green’s analysis that you have posted. The pact idea is a ‘simple’ solution put forward by people with what I would describe as outdated ideas.

    The assumption that advocates – Tim Montgomerie, Peter Bone, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Toby Young among them – make is that voters really want to vote for either ‘the right’ or ‘the left’ and that ‘the right’ win if there is a merger. This just doesn’t hold in modern politics if it ever did.

  20. @Bill Patrick
    You say, vote according to what you believe, and do not vote tactically to achieve a certain outcome.

    You say, further, that just one vote, will not tip the balance of the result, and the important thing is to feel good about how you have voted.

    Well, I have voted in ten general elections, and I have voted in the way you suggest. However, maybe now is the time to stop, and to think, because I’ve almost always lost, at this roulette wheel.

    If there were proportional representation it would be different. Under this First Past the Post System ii is only too easy to waste your vote. What do the clever people do?

    You have to be professional at this.

    If you want to vote effectively under this First Past the Post system, you have to vote tactically. If you do that you will lose less frequently, on these bets.

    If you support minority parties such as the Greens, they need support at local council level etc. They are more likely to win there, and from there they can progress. However, just look at the experience. Have any new parties broken through to Westminster? The FPTP system stacks the odds against them.

    Try regional assembly elections, the European elections. They have proportional representation. There is a better chance there.

    When you have a springboard, you can try Westminster elections.

    As I say, I want proportional representation. There is a saying ” softly,softly etc.”

  21. Statgeek

    No, they were of course rhetorical questions. I do wonder if colleagues have a view on a straightforward SNP Labour coalition with the prognosis that Statgeek has outlined (see my 17.51 today).
    I could not see any flaw in my extrapolation, the point of which was to pose the irony of a SNP wipeout of Labour in Scotland resulting in a Lab SNP coalition resulting at Westminster. There are reminders of my own SW where a similar thing happened as between LD and Con (essentially).

  22. The Express poll report is cached here:
    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:qDe2ln7lzgUJ:www.express.co.uk/news/uk/539175/Boost-Farage-Ukip-second-Tories+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

    Long on comment, short on facts. It is dated tomorrow, refers to a YouGov poll but says nothing beyond: ‘The findings, which had 38 per cent of those surveyed backing the Tories, 28 per cent Ukip and 25 per cent Labour, came after former Tory MP Mark Reckless became Ukip’s second elected MP in the Rochester and Strood by-election.’

    But no links to a source, or further statistics. As others have commented, on these figures, there is only 9% left to divide between LD, Green, SNP, PC or anyone else. It’s a bit odd.

  23. @Candy

    “””
    Does anyone else find it amusing that it will be FPTP that prevents the LibDems from being completely obliterated? In a PR system they’d have just a handful of seats…
    “””

    I beg to differ. Both polls given above have the LDs on 7%. Under “pure” PR, presuming the same total of MPs, this would give them

    650 x 0.07 = 46 seats (rounding the half up)

    which would be more than they could hope to gain under FPTP.

  24. It’s all doom & gloom
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    …………for the Lib/Dems.

  25. Alisdair – “I beg to differ. Both polls given above have the LDs on 7%. Under “pure” PR, presuming the same total of MPs, this would give them
    650 x 0.07 = 46 seats (rounding the half up)”

    Ah, but remember all opinion polls include tactical votes under FPTP – “how you would vote in your constituency in the next election”, so some of that 7% are Lab/Tory tactical votes they would gain in their strongholds. In a PR situation it would be lower.

    A big mistake Clegg and co made was to assume the 23% they got in the last election were votes for them, as opposed to tactical votes against others.

  26. Some were votes for them – or at least what they said they were.

  27. ‘UKIP surge to second place in new poll’ is on the front of tomorrow’s Express

  28. Express Poll (mentioned on front page): UKIP in second place ahead of Labour… Anyone know details? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3KIECgCUAEvZmT.png

  29. “Express “phone polls” are premium rate numbers they put in the paper, to get people to ring up to vote yes or no (multiple times if they wish), presumably after reading a foam-flecked Express rant on the subject in question. There is obviously no attempt to get a representative sample” AWells, http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8330.

    I suspect the comment applies equally well now.

  30. @Ben Foley

    If that is the case then reporting of polls has plumbed new depths…

  31. Sun reader polls also expected to feature more regularly.

    Mind you we assume readers know their papers affiliation -ashcroft says not .

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/07/which-party-does-the-sun-support-do-sun-readers-know/

  32. It was a YouGov poll of Sun readers.

  33. @ RICHARD
    “The Greens will mostly head back to Labour, we saw that in the Rochester by election, their vote simply collapses in a FPTP scenario.”

    Richard, the evidence from Rochester simply doesn’t bear that out in the slightest. The opinion polls in Rochester showed Greens on 1% (4th Oct), 2% (21st Oct), 2% (28th Oct) and 4% (10th Nov). The result was 4.2% for the Green candidate. So, in an FPTP scenario, the closer it got to polling day, the higher the Green share was.

    Equally, you might have anticipated such a movement in May, but Green polling has actually risen (on the ‘next General Election’ question) from 4.10% (rolling mean of last 20 polls) on May 22nd to 5.65% now.

    Something different seems to be happening to Green support from what has ever happened to it before in the last year before a General election.

  34. Candy @ 8.21 pm

    Yes, there`s certainly a good chance of a LibDem hold in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine.

    The main rival for our present sitting LibDem MP (Sir Robert Smith) is a local Tory newcomer, elected by a Tory primary.

    In this area with a higher-than-average number of English and non-Scots people for Scotland, I hear only scorn for Alex Salmond and the SNP.

    I did have some doubts about Sir Robert Smith`s health; he seemed somewhat down when chairing his Select Committee in Tim Yeo`s absence. But he was in our kirk on Remembrance Sunday singing very vigorously and looking well.

  35. Howard

    I do wonder if colleagues have a view on a straightforward SNP Labour coalition with the prognosis that Statgeek has outlined

    Well not only do we have a view, but more interestingly YouGov panelists do as well. They often run ‘which coalition would you prefer’ questions, which mainly concern who gets custody of the Lib Dems. But today’s variant had a much greater selection of options than usual:

    Imagine there was a hung Parliament after the next election, with no single party getting enough seats to form a government on their own. Imagine that these were the possible combinations of parties, which would you prefer?[1]

    A coalition between the Conservatives and UKIP 21%

    A coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal
    Democrats 17%

    A coalition between the Conservatives and SNP 2%

    A coalition between Labour and the Liberal
    Democrats 18%

    A coalition between Labour and the SNP 13%

    A coalition between Labour and the UKIP 9%

    Don’t know 20%

    As usual the real interest is in the preferences of who the various Parties would like to hook up with. Conservative voters prefer Lib Dems over UKIP, though not by much (45 v 40).[2]

    UKIP prefer Con over Lab (56 v 24), but it’s interesting how high that 24% is for a supposedly Right-wing Party. As with a lot of other polling this suggests about a quarter of UKIP support feels itself more on the Left and could well be retrievable by Labour. Contrariwise 15% of Labour supporters would prefer UKIP to other Parties.

    Otherwise Labour still prefer the Lib Dems over the SNP 41 to 28, which I thought interesting given the hatred we are assured Labour has for the Lib Dems. Maybe CiF isn’t representative of the country, after all. 43% of Scots would Lab-SNP though with Lib-Lab second.

    Also despite our being constantly assured the Lib Dem lefties have fled and what remains is more orange than an easyJet staff party in a tanning salon, the leftover would prefer to be in coalition with Labour 50-35.

    [1] Obviously in no conceivable mathematical universe could all these pairings be simultaneously possible. But you know what they mean.

    [2] A Grand Con-Lab Coalition wasn’t offered, even though is many possible HoCs it might be the only two-Party combination that did have a majority.

  36. Express poll

    CON 33%

    UKIP 28%

    LAB 25%

    LIB 3%

    OTHERS 6%

    Uh oh!

  37. By who, and conducted how?

  38. Neil A

    The interesting thing for me is that the UKIP and Tory votes [in Rochester] were closer than any of the polls were suggesting. Does this mean that there was a systemic issue with accuracy? Or does it mean that the momentum was towards the Tories?

    Sorry I meant to answer this one before. I suspect the reality is that it’s more an aspect of the ‘kitchen sink’ approach. We saw a similar Conservative effort in Newark and the Con-UKIP gap was 4 points better for Con than the final poll there suggested, though that poll was only a couple of days before polling. Especially in a by-election where turnout is lower, the Conservatives simply have more resources and experience in getting the vote out than UKIP can manage.

    The gap was about 5 points less in Rochester though the last poll there was about ten days out. In both constituencies the comparisons are with an Ashcroft poll and you could argue that it justifies his reallocation practice, or the gaps would have been even bigger. But the movement was in UKIP’s favour in Clacton and Heywood rather than the Tories which suggests organisation factors, given that the Con effort wasn’t as strong in those seats.

  39. Word has it was Survation. Not sure if it was online or phone but whether this is a Sun readers only poll or one conducted by ET’s grandparents I don’t care..

    The only poll which counts is the most recent one.

    The future looks purple….it might just be!!

  40. And I’m presuming it’s a England only poll unless UKIP have somehow swept away the Tartan rampage and replaced it with a dreadful purple haze.

  41. Allan, I’ve just conducted a poll of my family. The result was 100% Labour, 0% Conservative, UKIP, LD, Green.

    And remember, the only poll which counts is the most recent one.

  42. NORBOLD
    Allan, I’ve just conducted a poll of my family. The result was 100% Labour, 0% Conservative, UKIP, LD, Green.
    And remember, the only poll which counts is the most recent one
    ___________

    The Lib/Dem VI looks a little high though…I was expecting them to be in negative polling by now. ;-)

  43. Looks like a dodgy poll. But it would never surprise me to see an outlier with ukip above labour. The papers look like they are trying to destroy EM and labour, much the way they went after Kinnock, and we all know that story.

  44. All is revealed over at PB.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/23/daily-express-reporting-new-poll-with-ukip-in-second-place/

    It’s a poll of Sun readers, which the Express reported as if it were a properly weighted national poll.

    Utter garbage from a c**p newspaper.

  45. PHIL HAINES

    PB says it might be a Sun only poll as I stated further up.

    I wouldn’t tuck yourself in just yet. Could be a long and sweaty night until the facts are known.

  46. Ok, let’s assume that the poll is BS for a host of reasons. It is being reported as valid, which also matters in some sense, and it is the first poll I can recall being reported as valid to put UKIP into second, full stop. Any chance that the report (again, valid or not) has a psychological impact on top of the events of the last few days?

  47. If I do a dissertation next year rather than my other option, it’s going to be on the media and opinion polling. The Express are giving me gold to work with, in addition to their hilarious phone polls.

  48. @MRNAMELESS

    “If I do a dissertation next year rather than my other option, it’s going to be on the media and opinion polling.”

    ———–

    Or Thorium…

  49. @Allan Christie

    For your information, I had a very good night’s sleep.

  50. Perhaps the members of this site could set up a company called Thorium Polling so we can combine the 2?

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