Sunday polls

There are three polls in this Sunday’s papers – Opinium in the Observer and two separate YouGov polls, one in the Sunday Times and one in the Sun on Sunday.

Opinium has topline voting intention figures of CON 30%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 19%(nc), GRN 4%(nc) (changes are from their last published voting intention figures a fortnight ago (tabs are here).

YouGov’s two sets of voting intention figures are CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15% in the Sun on Sunday poll, and CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% in the Sunday Times (Sun Times tabs are here, Sun on Sunday should be up tomorrow) – so still showing the two main parties very close to one another.


130 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. Carfrew,

    May be a difficult one to work into a Journalism degree.

  2. The ‘Sun’ poll.
    Never take one poll in isolation, but look at the trend.
    Who thinks a ‘Sun readers’ poll would have shown UKIP on 28% last year?
    Who thinks a ‘Sun readers’ poll would have shown UKIP above Labour last year?
    Given all the other polls, who thinks UKIP are above Labour now?

  3. Express article suggests it was the ‘best PM’ figures from a YouGov poll (presumably one of Sunday’s). So complete garbage to report it as either a surge or UKIP being second then!

  4. @Gray
    “Any chance that the report (again, valid or not) has a psychological impact on top of the events of the last few days?”
    _____________

    Well given that the Express is reporting it as if it were a proper national YouGov poll, when it clearly wasn’t, there might be a bit of reputational damage to YouGov. Time for a sharply worded letter from the YouGov solicitor?

    Other than that, assuming that there are people who believe what they read in the Express, it might persuade a few Express Conservatives that Pressman’s “Vote UKIP Get Miliband” campaign is a load of tosh.

  5. A couple of vintage phrases from Michael Ashcroft in the G.

    Ukip’s longer-term prospects depend in part on how far it can ape the Liberal Democrats, with whom it has more in common than either party would care to acknowledge.

    and

    Having won in the first place by harvesting protest votes, the Lib Dems established themselves as the Japanese knotweed of British politics through relentless local campaigning.

    Somehow I can’t see UKIP doing the pavement politics thing. So far, there’s no evidence they have the stamina to hang on to any gains.

  6. Well, in defence of the Express, they’re the first to come up with anything close to my outlandish prediction that we’d have a poll shortly after Rochester showing all three parties, Labour, Tory and UKIP, in the 20s! Just a shame it’s obviously a voodoo concoction.

    I occasionally buy the Express on a Saturday, primarily for its bumper TV guide and fiendish Alphapuzzle, so I have some knowledge of its content, albeit only on a sporadic frequency. It makes for a hilarious read, particularly the Letters page and the Richard & Judy column, but it’s probably the nearest we’ve got to a UKIP leaning national newspaper. It’s obviously out of the Labour-loathing stable of our printed press, and there’s plenty of proxy cheerleading for the Tories as a result, but I detect it’s editorial heart is with UKIP. Their former Political Editor, Patrick O’Flynn, is currently Farage’s spin doctor in chief.

    Accordingly, and all this said, I suspect that their opinion poll showing UKIP ahead of Labour, needs to be placed in its proper context. In other words, its complete cobblers! :-)

  7. Damn, in my previous e.mail, I’ve used an “it’s” when it should be “its” and then later, vice versa. I’d like to say it’s this bloody Iphone, but I think it may be creeping old age!

    :-)

  8. Another report about falling real wages, this time from the Joseph Rowntree Trust, also data about homelessness, inflation and social security

    LINK
    http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/MPSE-2014-FULL.pdf

    Read it if you wish, as I am often posting these gloomy reports, I will instead highlight some of the hopeful things in it

    Unemployment has declined by 300,000 since last year and there has been a decline in poverty in work-less households

    Number of older people in poverty has declined markedly in the last 10 years as has the income of lone parents

    20% of people have left low paid work in the last 10 years

    The number of poorer people behind with their bills has declined to 20% from 23% in 2009

    Poor children in cities are doing better in education than 10 years ago

  9. Last night’s BBC news was heavily influenced by May’s assertion that the net migrant target would be missed. The reporting was very negative in tone in general.

    While issues of migration always spill into difficult arguments (and usually accusations of racism as well) this one is a little different, in that it’s all about a promise broken.

    Many other direct promises, pledges, statements and commitments made very personally by Cameron have been broken. Not perhaps surprising, as he is a politician, but this probably gets to the heart of the reason why he never really won over voters. He wins the ugly contest, but maybe failed to win a majority as people really couldn’t fully believe in him.

    This very salient and high profile failure of a very big policy promise is another failed pledge, and at some point surely these have to start to count.

    On most of the failed promises Labour can’t really score, as they either can’t unwind the new reality or don’t have a credible alternative. Net migration may be different, in that Labour aren’t trying to compete with the Tories on this number.

  10. “Poor children in cities are doing better in education than 10 years ago”

    ————

    The migrant effect, as in London?….

  11. @MRNAMELESS

    “May be a difficult one to work into a Journalism degree.”

    ———–

    See it as a challenge, for when they try and make you work a newspaper’s agenda into every article!!…

  12. @JIM JAM

    “Perhaps the members of this site could set up a company called Thorium Polling so we can combine the 2?”

    ———–

    Well, there’s possibly insufficient interest right now. AW isn’t helping, given the conspicuous lack of polling questions thus far on the matter. We see polling questions on which politician most resembles a Llama or summat, but nothing on this potential game-changing technology. Would hate for him to miss the boat on this one…

    On the other hand, it did crop up in a convo I had last night with someone I met in the real world, and no, I didn’t mention it myself!! So that’s progress…

  13. Populus:

    Lab 36 (=)
    Con 31 (-2)
    LD 9 (=)
    UKIP 15 (+1)

    First one post Rochester/Thornberry and a bump for the Kippers. But not too bad for Labour or the Liberals either.

  14. May is the warm up act for camerons big speech this week withdrawing benefits from migrants for two years ,timing depends on immigration figures out on thursday.

    Express will defo support ukip at GE ,more interesting question is the Suns take .
    If murdoch has bought the farage argument that ukip would prefer minority labour administration to a tory libdem dup coalition.

    Is murdoch a vengeful man ? Will he try to shaft dave for leverson,coulson,brooks etc We shall see.

  15. RE Populus, Optimium

    Here is a thought, I wondering if, despite the bad headlines for Lab about the tweet, the fact that lots of shadow ministers have been on the telly, may have boosted Lab

    Opposition parties often struggle for airtime, so having lots of Lab people saying they really respect the voters might look good for Lab

    Maybe it was all a cunning plan cooked up by Ed M

    E.g

    Ed M says “now Emily you know like photographing buildings I wonder if you mind just doing this one small thing for the party and get us all on the telly”

  16. I think the fact that everyone from Blairites to the SCG lined up to say how bloody stupid it was probably helped.

  17. CB – cue the repetitive discussion between you and I on Populus.
    Let’s not bother there is plenty without us adding?

    Although, am I right that it is 4 in a row with no Tory lead from 3 differtent companies. [erhaps cross-over on hold for now?

    Although the Sun readers poll must be the most significant, even if youre a rival newsaper!!!

    FV – the one positive about the Thornberry ‘misjudgement’ was Ed’s speed with dealing with it which may have limited or even negated any potential damage.

  18. @Jim Jam

    Yes he was quick and apart from the Observer, the story was gone from the front page by Sunday

    i still would want to wait until the end of the week to see if there are any effects

  19. @Mr N
    As might the fact that Miliband was given lots of airtime when making a statement to the effect that the interests of working class voters were at the heart of what he stood for, having sacked someone who gave the merest hint of a different perspective. Can you imagine Blair coming out with that?

    Having said that, no real reason yet to believe that it’s more than random variation.

  20. MR NAMELESS

    “First one post Rochester/Thornberry and a bump for the Kippers. But not too bad for Labour or the Liberals either.”

    But the Populus polling was all pre Rochester result & before Thornberry story peaked

  21. @JimJam

    Your disclaimer got in before I could claim that even Populus were now heading into the 60s on combined vote share for the Tories and Labour (67%)! You’re right, though, in that our positions differ a little about what will transpire in May next year, but I certainly don’t rule out you being proved right and me wrong!

    I think you are right about the last four published polls showing Labour leads, and today’s Populus stretches it to 5% (biggest in any poll for some time, I think), but tonight’s YouGov will probably turn it all on its proverbial head. Trend or blip? Too early to tell, but I’ve certainly been proved wrong about a big post Rochester surge for UKIP, certainly on the evidence of the first few post-by election polls.

    But they’re certainly not too bad for Labour, it has to be said, and I’m a tad surprised about that considering the apocalyptically bad press the party has received over the last seven days or so.

  22. Phil Haines
    “when making a statement to the effect that the interests of working class voters were at the heart of what [Miliband] stood for”

    Using First Verdict, yesterday’s YouGov Daily asked 3,349 people which of the parties represent “working people”.

    Labour led at 47%, UKIP were on 24, Cons & LDs tied on 17.
    32% said ‘none of them’ and 3% said ‘don’t know’.

    They also asked them to predict the proportion of the vote the LDs would end up winning next May.

    The aggregate prediction was 9 per cent.

    They also asked whether respondents wanted the LDs to improve on their current standing or not. 40 per cent said ‘yes’, and 52 per cent said ‘no’.

    http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/fe73f687e5bc5280214e0486b273a5f9.html

  23. Slam
    “But the Populus polling was all pre Rochester result & before Thornberry story peaked”

    No, the fieldwork was between the 21st & the 23rd so right bang in the middle of the tweet farago.

    Here’s the tables showing the dates:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-142/

  24. MR NAMELESS & OTHERS

    In the light of the info. from BRAMLEY my apologies.

    I accept the Populus polling was completed yesterday

  25. Bramley – many of that 47% may not have been working class themselves of course.

  26. @ Carfew and Mr Nameless

    I think the way to combine Thorium and opinion poll reporting into a single dissertation would be a consideration of how the press shapes the discourse.

    Thorium and many individual opinion polls are ignored whereas Hydraulic Fracking and certain polling results are given a great deal of attention.

    What was that about ‘Follow the money’?

  27. Could somebody tell me when political parties have to be registered by for the General Election?

    My reason for asking is that after the Rochester and Strood by-election it would appear that there is great disillusion with the three major parties; but UKIp does not really seem to be making the breakthrough.

    As I understand it, and whatever you think of them, there is a rapid breakthrough in some other countries of Cloud based parties rejecting the rich backers currently funding UK parties, including UKIP as well as the three major older ones, in favour of large numbers of small online donations. Such movements now seem to take off with a rapidity far greater than in pre-Internet days. I wonder whether there is any prospect of the sudden take-off of such a party in this country in time for next May.

  28. Hal

    “Somehow I can’t see UKIP doing the pavement politics thing. So far, there’s no evidence they have the stamina to hang on to any gains.”

    I think the difference is the other parties are shoveling votes in Ukip’s direction so it’s more a question of Ukip’s ability to hoover them up.

  29. Bramley

    “Using First Verdict, yesterday’s YouGov Daily asked 3,349 people which of the parties represent “working people”.
    Labour led at 47%, UKIP were on 24, Cons & LDs tied on 17.
    32% said ‘none of them’ and 3% said ‘don’t know’.”

    That 32% “none of them” are Ukip’s target imo.

    The thing is the people in question know the PC cult hate them because they’ve seen it but it doesn’t fully register because they don’t understand why.

    It’s a bit like someone seeing a dragon walk down the high street. They know they’ve seen it but can’t *believe* they’ve seen it.

    So Ukip need a simple and easy to swallow explanation for why the PC cult hate the native working class population. Who knows what the actual explanation is but a simple and easy to swallow one would be the PC cult started off as anti-racist but gradually morphed into anti-native through a one upmanship competition over who could be the most anti-racist.

    If Ukip can find the right key for the lock then they should be able to take poll position on that question from Lab imo.

  30. roger mexico

    “UKIP prefer Con over Lab (56 v 24), but it’s interesting how high that 24% is for a supposedly Right-wing Party. As with a lot of other polling this suggests about a quarter of UKIP support feels itself more on the Left and could well be retrievable by Labour. Contrariwise 15% of Labour supporters would prefer UKIP to other Parties.”

    At a minimum you need to divide things into economic and social which gives you four categories:

    economic left + social left
    economic left + social right
    economic right + social right
    economic right + social left

    (the same but divided left/centre/right would probably be more accurate and give you nine categories)

    Some working class Cons are self-employed Thatcherite types who are either right/left or right/right but most are left/right people who weight social over economic.

    I know someone whose grand-dads were a copper and a communist shop steward. They got on fine because they had all the same opinions it was just the priorities were switched. One put security stuff first and the other put economic stuff first.

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