Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. It has a Tory lead of one point, following a Labour lead in yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll. Realistically we are in a position where the two main parties are so close that normal random variation is going to regularly spit out both Labour and Tory leads until and unless one party manages to pull substantially ahead of the other.

Rather out of the blue there was also a Survation constituency poll of Stockton South earlier today – a Conservative held ultra-marginal, currently represented by James Wharton. The poll had topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 3%(-12), UKIP 18%(+15). Changes are from the general election and technically represent a tiny swing from Labour to the Conservatives. Clearly this is better than the Conservatives are doing in the national polls and they’d be pleased to hold such a vulnerable marginal, but it’s also just one single poll with a relatively small sample size (35% said don’t knows, so the topline figures are based on 571 people). Tabs are here.


228 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6”

1 2 3 4 5
  1. Thanks for the identification(s) of Little Mo, folks. This site and its followers can always be relied on to produce answers.

    John P

    As it happens, I’m a man – but with lots of women in my family. I have a long standing interest in equality issues of all kinds, though Mrs Nat will confirm that I don’t always practice what I preach. :-)

  2. Richard –

    Place of birth weighting in Scotland is a good example actually. Companies started weighting for that because of a combination of reasons.

    First was that without weighting it was clearly and systemically wrong – compared to the census, there were too many English born people.

    Second was that it did make a difference. We knew anyway that English born people were more likely to vote No, but that’s not necessarily the same thing – it could have been that other types of weighting like political weighting actually cancelled out any impact from the difference. In this case, it did not – weighting by place of birth did make a difference above and beyond all the other weighting, and it was enough to make a difference after rounding.

    Finally, place of birth was easy to ask, and there were good census based targets to weight it to.

    Something really needs to tick all these boxes to be weighted by. If samples normally have about the right proportion anyway, you’ve no real need to weight. If it doesn’t make enough of an impact to actually make any difference to the final figures, you wouldn’t bother to weight. If the data can’t easily be collected from respondents, or you’ve no good target to weight it too, it’s not possible to weight.

    Personally speaking, I think race is now enough of a factor in London polling to make weighting by it essential. Nationally, I would make enough of a difference yet – but as ever, everyone keeps their methods under review.

  3. I do like YGs relatively new practice of separating out polling questions into clearer single tables.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hl70fwdbo0/RedBoxResults_141119_parties_likelihood_of_vote_W.pdf

    has likelihood to vote for parties, which they asked yesterday.

    As expected, every party has more who would never vote for them, than those who would. (The only party which, within their area might have achieved the opposite wasn’t asked about – reasonably enough in a GB poll).

    That neither Lab nor Con get more than 35% of respondents likely to vote for them, even if they had a chance of winning in the constituency, and that neither has retained more than 77%/78% of their 2010 vote seems telling.

  4. There is an interesting division in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings from the ONS

    overall real weekly earning fell 1.6% in to April 2014

    But delving down deeper shows 2 groups

    Group 1 – doing well

    working continuously in the same job for more than a year have a pay rise of 4.1% in 2014 and the same 4% rise in 2012 and 2013 – these are 18 million people

    Group 2 – doing badly

    new entrants to the labour market – the young, the elderly, the formerly unemployed and inactive – having to accept declining pay, these are 7.5 million people including 300,000 people paid below the NMW

    and

    the self-employed earning less than £10,000 a year on average (ONS figures) these are 4.6 million people

    18 million against 12 million

    So why if there are so many more workers doing well, are the personal finances question negative for working age voters.

    Possible reasons

    1) decline in overtime pay and bonuses – so that 18 million are not getting as much pay as before in total*

    2) some people are getting really big increases and giving a misleading impression for a large number of this 18m

    * tax credits and personal allowance rises mitigates this, but inflation amplifies it.

    LINK ASHE
    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ashe/annual-survey-of-hours-and-earnings/2014-provisional-results/index.html

    LINK Self-employed
    h ttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_374941.pdf

  5. VGFLEET

    I’ve been posting here regularly (albeit sometimes infrequently) since early 2010. Making one’s first post is a big step, especially as there are quite a few posters here who can be somewhat deterring.

    …..

    Which reminds me…a week or so ago I looked back at the June or July 2009 VI figures (Or perhaps it was 2008?) One poll caught my eye as it featured the ten top issues voted by joe public. Immigration was not in the top ten!

    Unsurprisingly, UKIP were hardly on the radar then if I recall correctly.

    So…let’s ponder whether the Cons should be in a much better position VI wise if the party hadn’t banged on about it so much so often over the last four or so years? One could argue that the improvement in the economy should have significantly boosted Con VI by now – so that they should be several points ahead of Lab at this point. To what extent has ‘immigration’ damaged Cons chances of forming the next government alone? These are questions IMO that should trouble Con supporters.

  6. Anthony, thanks for the reply

    I agree about London, if you look at Statgeeks regional charts the London cross break is one of the most volatile

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/polling-trends/regional-trends/

    UKIP 9-19%
    Cons 24-38%
    Lab 32-45%

    I am wondering if race is something impacting this, given that the population of London is now>50% BME per one site I saw (note that is population, not voters)

    But given the population trajectory and salience of immigration as an issue I think we can expect to see weighting by race or place of birth sometime soon.

  7. @Neil A

    Why is it hard to take the Survation single-constituency poll seriously?

    Because it looks an awful lot like result cherry picking by Unite of a raft of marginal polls they commissioned, selecting the one they want to present for their own reasons. Relations between Labour and Unite are not particularly good right now, so they have reasons of their own to put this kind of pressure on the party.

    It would be stretching poling council rules, but they’re not obliged to publish *all* of the polling they commission, so there’s a big loophole for result cherrypicking. Particularly if you separate constituency polling up into individual polls.

    In other words, file this in the bin under the “Politically motivated release of a private poll” rule.

  8. VGFleet
    I appreciate your post. I think Labour would side with staying in EU regardless of whether Cameron obtained meaningful changes or otherwise. There would not be a VOC because with such “backing” (also from LD and SNP to name but two) the vote would be won handsomely.

  9. @FV

    Your No (2) alternative is probably the reason.

    I have been in employment for a long time in an industry doing well. However, I haven’t had an increase above inflation for many years. And I’m in London too. The averages you quote are heavily distorted by earnings by the super rich in the City.

  10. Gattino

    Try reading the right wing press more often they have often had a go at Cameron on policies they don’t like. It is not all one way traffic. In addition EM’s recent problems were in good part due to articles in the New Statesman, Guardian and the Observer not well known right of center papers.

    Valerie

    There has been economic growth, greater in this country than most of the western world. I think who is best at running the economy will be the key question when people vote in 2015. At the moment the polls says there is a clear winner on that question.

  11. Vgfleet – hello and welcome. To ponder your question, I would imagine Labour would campaign to stay IN, as it’s been their consistent policy since 1984. I don’t think they’d play such a narrow party political game over the UK’s EU membership. The referendum would almost certainly prove very damaging to DC even if the result was the one he campaigned for. It would suit Labour to watch him hypothetically slowly bleed to death after the referendum. As Labour are discovering with Scotland, it is psephologically possible to simultaneously win and lose.

    On a totally different issue, has anyone seen the Graun article about Boris Johnson’s US tax bill and his refusal to pay it? Crikey. What is it about wealthy people and taxes? If the story is accurate Johnson is clearly liable for the bill, and it looks like he has had either zero or very bad advice. I do know a fair amount about US tax issues for UK-domiciled Americans. The IRS don’t like to negotiate … and it is something of an article of faith in the US that everyone pays their taxes. I don’t think this’ll have any traction (unless he gets arrested!) but I, for one, will follow this with interest.

  12. JayBlanc
    Yes of course I expect that was the motive and I doubt if anyone who comes on here was in any doubt. But it’s still a poll and stands on its own merit, even if the client has been ‘economical’ with which poll he chose to make public.

  13. The wealth of the 1% has increased over the last few years whereas the rest have by and large suffered decrease.

    The growing affluence of the 1% (eg those in the City) distorts such things as how much earnings have risen or are rising.

  14. Unlike some on here, I am struggling to see why Reckless winning in Rochester (or indeed Carswell in Clacton) is a sensation. He is the incumbent MP who won a 10,000 majority at the last election and is standing against the government in a mid-term by election. How can he lose?

  15. other howard

    you are absolutely right. the latest edm wobble was started by an article in the new statesman, a left leaning publication if ever there was one….

    many on the left are frustrated by miliband because they see a once in a lifetime opportunity for the left to dominate british politics as having been squandered. Some left wing commentators are much better at what the French call “autocritique” than many posters on this site.

  16. @Howard

    And a single poll in isolation is next to worthless.

  17. Sergio
    maybe that’s right…but the implication is that another UKIP win may well precipitate further Con defections and lead to extreme pressure on DC as leader of the Cons

    Aided and abetted the BBC the right wing press will play down the result but it will nothing more than sensational and potentially a catalyst.

  18. JayBlanc
    No it isn’t. It stands on its own merits and we have extensively analysed it this morning and have discovered its frailties, at least in pondering who will win that seat in 2015.

  19. VGfleet

    Welcome, always nice to have new views and comments. On your questions:-

    If Cameron was leading a Tory government in 2015, had a referendum, recommended staying in and lost I would expect him to resign. I would not expect the Government to resign. I would expect the Government under a new leader to implement the views of the electorate and with from the EU immediately.

    I could see Labour supporting Cameron leading up to a referendum if he was recommending staying in. Once the referendum was lost they would no longer support Cameron but in my view he would resign anyway.

    I find it hard to see Labour or LibDems voting to leave the EU under any circumstances.

    All IMO of course.

  20. Vgfleet

    should have said “withdraw from the EU immediately. Sorry typo!

  21. TOH

    Hope you had a good walk.
    My memory is that back in 2010, people were saying the Tories had a great plan; Austerity followed by economic revival would lead to a feel-good factor in 2014 and, hey-ho,in May 2015 the Tories would be rewarded with an overall majority.
    Well there’s 6 months to go, but they are cutting it a bit fine.
    My brother is a blue-kipper and he won’t be returning to the fold. No chance!

  22. Just a word on EU following other posters’ comments. It is for the parliament to decide whether UK withdraws, and my answer was to the effect that a loss in the referendum would not lead to withdrawal necessarily. I suppose it would depend on the degree, but I am afraid my sense of what is real is that, as we already know from the polls, a Cameron recommendation to stay in would be supported very strongly in a referendum.

    And that’s with zero public debate about it so far, just newspaper owners flying kites and commissioning ‘what if’ polls.

  23. JOHN P
    @Oldnat, are you male or female as your post on the gender pay gap is surprising”
    ________________

    I can confidently say OLDNAT is both male and female.
    http://images.classicalite.com/data/images/full/3646/dame-edna-everage-barry-humphries-taking-over-adelaide-music-festival.jpg

  24. Today’s YouGov puts Labour at 22% in Scotland – compared with 42% in 2010. This 20% drop will have reduced Labour’s GB figure by 1.5 to 2% and so been decisive in determining the lead. On the other hand it might mean Labour is performing rather better in E &W than the headline figures suggest.

  25. vgfleet

    I’ll ad my welcome as well.

    There is a complicating factor in that no EU member can simply “leave”.

    Unless. all the other members chose to say “OK. Bye, bye” there would be a two year negotiating period between an application to leave, and eventual departure, and even that period can be extended by mutual agreement.

    A referendum in October? 2017, would mean that any departure might be delayed until the 2020 GE had confirmed that UK voters still wanted to leave, once they had seen the terms.

  26. Many on the left are frustrated by Miliband because they see a once in a lifetime opportunity to dominate british politics as having been squandered.
    —————
    Peter C, I can only wonder at the lefty circles you must frequent. Are you a mole?

  27. TOH

    “If Cameron was leading a Tory government in 2015, had a referendum, recommended staying in and lost I would expect him to resign. I would not expect the Government to resign. I would expect the Government under a new leader to implement the views of the electorate and with from the EU immediately”
    ______

    I agree with that and Cameron would probably go and the new leader of the Tories would act accordingly.

    Of course that’s providing the Tories have a majority and were not running as a minority gov because then a vote of no confidence could be called.

  28. Valerie

    I have been saying for at least three years now that i think the Tories will win a slim majority and I think the economy will be the key question, but put in the words I used above.

    I don’t think I went on about feel good factors since i am well aware that there has been a decline trend in real wages for many years now, in many sectors and not just under this government. Of course wages and conditions have declined in some sections of the Public sector under this Government of course since there was a need to cut costs and restore a more even “playing field” with the private sector.

    All just IMO of course.

    Finally, thanks for asking and I did have a lovely walk with my wife who is now painting happily.

  29. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “Of course that’s providing the Tories have a majority and were not running as a minority gov because then a vote of no confidence could be called.”

    Yes, I think that would happen.

  30. GRAHAM
    Today’s YouGov puts Labour at 22% in Scotland – compared with 42% in 2010. This 20% drop will have reduced Labour’s GB figure by 1.5 to 2% and so been decisive in determining the lead. On the other hand it might mean Labour is performing rather better in E &W than the headline figures suggest
    _______

    I don’t think it does. A lower VI for Labour in Scotland will most likely see the Tories pull ahead in E&W by at least 3%.

    Anyway don’t pay any attention to Scottish cross breaks, one had Labour as high as 25% last week. ;-)

  31. OLDNAT

    I am no parliamentary expert but I would have thought a simple bill passed through both Houses with the Royal assent would do it. We would then technically be outside the EU. Obviously some detailed negotiations would be needed but we would no longer be members.

  32. Graham

    You can approximate the E&W VI from the YG tables (damn YG’s use of %ages only!

    Con does better in E&W by 2% compared with the GB figure : Lab and UKIP by 1% each.

  33. ToH

    “The Treaty of Lisbon introduced an exit clause for members who wish to withdraw from the Union. Under TEU Article 50, a Member State would notify the European Council of its intention to secede from the Union and a withdrawal agreement would be negotiated between the Union and that State. The Treaties would cease to be applicable to that State from the date of the agreement or, failing that, within two years of the notification unless the State and the Council both agree to extend this period. The agreement is concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council and shall set out the arrangements for withdrawal, including a framework for the State’s future relationship with the Union. The agreement is to be approved by the Council, acting by qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.” (Wiki)

  34. I worked in the City where I mixed with no lefties, but then i worked in pr and communications where there are dozens of blairites and more authentic lefties, esp. in public sector bodies etc.

    The latter feel labour had a historic opportunity after the financial crisis and the forming of the coalition, to tap into people’s disaffection with the “system” etc. It seems that UKIP and Russell Brand have been the beneficiaries of this malaise, while labour have slumped. Mili was more convincing running as a genuine lefty, with energy price freezes and stuff like that, despite the pasting he got from the media. Their assault didn’t work.

    When Mili tries to be a dull centrist, he flops. He doesn’t really have the presentational skills of Blair, or even Cameron, to pull that off. he does well when he sounds passionate and authentic, which he does when he spouts genuinely left wing stuff.

  35. Vgfleet

    If Cameron wins the next election and the EU in/out goes to a referendum and Cameron recommends staying in. If the said referendum looks to be close and Cameron states the government will resign if it loses it. ( As John Major did with the Maastricht treaty). Would the Labour party (voters/party) support the government and keep the Tories in power?

    I don’t think Cameron would promise to resign if he loses a referendum. Promising to resign if you lose a vote in the HoC is a completely different thing, as you can’t carry on without a majority in the HoC. Anyway, if he did promise to resign, then many Labour voters would be tempted to vote out just to spite Cameron (just as with Clegg/AV), which is why he would not promise to resign.


    Also another hypothetical, If the UK voted to leave the EU and the Tory government falls within the fixed term election cycle and Labour become the government by default. Would they carry out the wishes of the people thought its against there policy?

    I don’t think any government would dare to go against the result of a referendum directly. The usual tactic if you lose a referendum is to have another one.

  36. HOWARD

    “but I am afraid my sense of what is real is that, as we already know from the polls, a Cameron recommendation to stay in would be supported very strongly in a referendum.”

    Sadly (IMO) I think your right about that. I think UK voters are afraid of the unknown so we will probably eventually go down with the sinking ship.

  37. Sergio

    To describe this by-election, with five and a half months to go of a five year parliament as mid-term is stretching it a bit!

  38. Ciderman

    “To describe this by-election, with five and a half months to go of a five year parliament as mid-term is stretching it a bit!”

    I disagree. Even with my sobriquet, I consider even my advanced years to fall within the definition of “middle age”. (I may be biased,)

  39. OLDNAT

    I don’t think that matters a damn. After the vote in both Houses and the Royal Assent the Europeans would not dare to try and force us to stay in. Yes, it might take 2 years to clear up technical matters but the actuality is we would be out from the date of the Royal Assent.

  40. Richard

    I am wondering if race is something impacting this, given that the population of London is now>50% BME per one site I saw (note that is population, not voters)

    Actually in the 2011 Census the White population of London was just under 60% (59.7%). But the White British one was under 50% at 44.5%:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_London#Ethnic_breakdown

    It may also be that various people who would be seen as white are hidden away in the various Other and Mixed categories – people were supposed to specify, but I’m not sure how much analysis has been done.

    How this ties with voter percentages is another matter. Other White were 12.6% of the London population and while some of these may be British citizens or have full voting rights (eg Australians) some may have only partial ones (eg Poles) or none (eg US unless you’re Boris).

    What does seem to be the case is that BME participants are under-represented in some polling that I have seen, when they have been separated out, so it certainly matters to get the balance right in London-only polls with BME at 40%. But it’s only 13% in the UK as a whole, so clearly that is less important. There’s also the danger that the mix in your BME sample may be wrong and that could skew things if different ethnicities within that vote differently.

  41. TOH

    I have learned over many years discussing the issue of secession from a union with or without an agreement, in the context of Scotland, that our positions are irreconcilable.

    As I have pointed out to the more militant side of the indy movement here – of course, you can decide to abrogate international treaties, just as long as you are willing to accept the consequences.

    Just how well do you think the City of London will do, when banks based there are banned from operating in the EU?

  42. AC/Oldnat,
    I probably failed to explain myself clearly Today’s YouGov data implies a GB swing from Con to Lab of about 3% compared with 2010. The figures for Scotland, however, with the Tories little changed and Labour down 20% imply a Lab to Con swing of 10%. It surely follows that – given that GB overall has swung 3% to Labour – the Con to Lab swing in England wales must be greater than 3% to offset the big adverse swing in Scotland!

  43. Just how well do you think the City of London will do, when banks based there are banned from operating in the EU?

    I agree with Oldnat.

    Don’t think I ever said that before!

    Actually even with a negotiated withdrawal from the EU, banks in London will find they are discriminated against when doing business in the EU.

  44. I have just returned from the Front. The most extraordinary telephone
    session I have ever done. The results have been so good for the Tories, I wonder if Marky boy has tipped up his applecart, with last nights “Kristallnacht” . Of course it is probably just coincidence.

    It interests me that the excuse of Labour voting UKIP, is being pushed forward by some posters. Is this to pre-excuse a very weak performance, or do they really hate the Tories so much, they could vote for a party that flirts with the repatriation of “hard working families”.

  45. @GATTINO
    I am very interested in your name. What is the background?

  46. “Is this to pre-excuse a very weak performance, or do they really hate the Tories so much, they could vote for a party that flirts with the repatriation of “hard working families”.

    The begging letters from the PM might have had something to do with it.

  47. OLDNAT & HAL

    I think you are now reaching starting to make your case for staying in. As you say we are at completely opposite ends of the spectrum on the EU. and as AW often says this is not the forum for further discussion on it. I was just replying to Vgfleet.

    If you read my post to Howard above you will see that I don’t think a withdrawal will happen anyway, much though it grieves me.

  48. “It interests me that the excuse of Labour voting UKIP, is being pushed forward by some posters. Is this to pre-excuse a very weak performance, or do they really hate the Tories so much, they could vote for a party that flirts with the repatriation of “hard working families”.”

    ————–

    Well if so it might not be such a surprise; it may have escaped your attention, but it is possible there are a fair few Tories doing the same thing…

  49. BRAMLEY

    “The begging letters from the PM might have had something to do with it.”

    So it is definitely happening then?

  50. @Rolandgatinos

    I have been suspecting a Tory victory tonight. Not sure as I have no direct knowledge but just reading the runes.

    Labour has made a big mistake in not putting up a bigger fight. Now the headlines assuming UKIP win which is priced in with be ‘UKIP win as expected, Disaster for Labour’ If Tories win then……..

1 2 3 4 5