Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. It has a Tory lead of one point, following a Labour lead in yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll. Realistically we are in a position where the two main parties are so close that normal random variation is going to regularly spit out both Labour and Tory leads until and unless one party manages to pull substantially ahead of the other.

Rather out of the blue there was also a Survation constituency poll of Stockton South earlier today – a Conservative held ultra-marginal, currently represented by James Wharton. The poll had topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 3%(-12), UKIP 18%(+15). Changes are from the general election and technically represent a tiny swing from Labour to the Conservatives. Clearly this is better than the Conservatives are doing in the national polls and they’d be pleased to hold such a vulnerable marginal, but it’s also just one single poll with a relatively small sample size (35% said don’t knows, so the topline figures are based on 571 people). Tabs are here.


228 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6”

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  1. Two polls/analysis by a couple of Uni’s on last nights TV suggested 2015GE will end with Con largest party, my estimate on using AW advanced swingometre suggests 25 seats short, so with LD collapse unable to form a coalition with just one party. Which leaves the possibility of Miliband wheeling in the SNP and LD’s together in some grand coalition to overrule EVEL proposals. Maybe make Salmond Minister for English education! I would be interested to here from other pollsters whether they think this (which is a real possibility I believe )would lead to a huge constitutional crisis.

  2. JohnB – Judging from his behaviour in Parliament, I doubt it. I think he always had Kipperish views but saw the Conservatives as a convenient vehicle to get into Parliament. And tellingly the local Conservative association agreed with him enough to select him for 2005, 2010 and 2015.

    Interestingly the Peter Oborne side of the Tory party always viewed him with suspicion. See the following article – Spectator while Oborne was writing for them endorsed Bob Marshall-Andrews against Reckless in the 2005 election.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/how-the-spectator-tried-to-stop-mark-reckless-from-ever-reaching-parliament/

  3. It doesn’t make sense for a Labour voter to vote “strategically” for a UKIP candidate to hurt the Tories. If the Labour vote collapses in Rochester, the media will spin the by-election as a Labour debacle more so than a Tory defeat, which is already “old news”.

  4. Good Evening All.

    COUPER 2802.
    Have you been reading my mind on the Highness of the Lib Dem figure in the poll?

    SOUTHERNMAN:
    Hello to you. IMO the old swing back’ could give the Cons a slight over all majority.

  5. Survation/Unite poll on Rochester: Ukip 48% (+48), Con 33% (-16), Lab 16% (-13), Lib Dems 1% (-16).

    If this is the most recent poll and the final result looks anything like it then only UKIP can be happy with the result.

    But I await the inevitable spin although at 1% I can’t see what the Lib/Dems would spin about.

    Any of the 3 main parties, UKIP TORY LABOUR polling under 20% will be a disaster, especially for the Tories and Labour who both polled well in the seat in 2010.

    No amount of spin can hide this.

  6. @John B

    “That said, a Labour supporter’s traditional first task is to defeat the Tories – in any way possible, perhaps.”

    The quicker we lose this two-party system, the better. It’s negative and does nothing for Britain.

  7. Mbruno
    I already wrote that – but good to know we think alike. The clever Labour voter of course has to be convinced that Reckless can do the business without his support. This is where the polling came in back along.

  8. AC
    It’s not a new poll, someone made a mistake earlier.

  9. Had a nap and looking forward to tonight’s entertainment. Is it just Andrew Neil’s This Week, does anyone know? No Dimblebys? Not that that would be a loss, mind.

  10. @Chris Green

    An extended This Week, as for recent by-elections.

    Does anyone know what sort of time the result is due? I read 4 somewhere (!) but some by-elections have been quite a bit earlier than that.

  11. Southernman

    The SNP and Plaid would have no interest in “over-ruling” EVEL proposals. It’s not clear that any of the NI parties would either.

    A revision of the HoC Bill drafting procedures, whereby matters pertaining to England only, were dealt with separately from Bills which had a wider geographic effect would be an excellent innovation.

    That said, SNP/Plaid wouldn’t do a deal to keep the Tories in power, so some kind of confidence & supply arrangement with Lab would be a distinct possibility.

    It might even depend on Lab not preparing legislation as sloppily as UK Governments habitually do!

  12. @Southernman

    The SNP don’t vote on English issues and they are also now playing a long game they are unlikely to do anything very undemocratic for a short term gain.

    Agree with OldNat probably C&S for Labour.

  13. Howard , TARK, The Other Howard, ,OLDNAT and Hal

    Thank you for your welcome and thanks for your input. As always more questions have risen from the various opinions.

    The general impression I have got is that the EU membership is bigger than any party.

    MARK N.

    The answer to your question is Economy not good enough for a CON majority at present and mass immigration a big blight for all main parties who have not the tools to deal with it.

  14. I said earlier I think it is Labour politicians and activists that think folk voting UKIP is a good idea. I don’t think Labour voters do.

    In Scotland they managed anti-Tory tactical voting because LibDems & SNP were also on the left so swiching between the three parties was easy – I can’t see genuine socialist, social democrats or anyone on the left voting UKIP.

    There might be swing voters though that maybe in 2010 voted Labour but now are voting UKIP – these folk a UKIP voters now not Labour (Parties don’t own voters)

  15. vgfleet

    “The general impression I have got is that the EU membership is bigger than any party.”

    Indeed. Frankly, any important issue is bigger than any party.

    Actually, EVERY issue is bigger than any party – except for those whose life, income, self-esteem etc etc are bound to a political party, as if it was something important like a football team. :-)

  16. I see Kelly Tolhurst is tweeting the standard political line –

    “RochesterAndStrood by-election is close 2-horse race. Don’t want a UKIP MP? Then VoteKelly – a vote for anyone else today helps Reckless”

    Every party does that – often even when they aren’t one of the two old nags!

    It would be interesting to know how many undecided voters are, any more, persuaded by the argument that “you should vote for us, as we aren’t the other one”.

  17. Any predictions as to the result? I’m guessing a roughly 7,500 UKIP majority.

  18. So does anyone know when the result might be announced ?

  19. I love those Apocalyptic posts on UKPR.

    The ones that go:-

    ” I sense with growing certainty, the shifting tectonic plates which signal the ultimate end of the Tory Party ,which I have been forecasting since……………… etc etc ”

    I picture a self satisfied , narcissistic nod, as the writer reaches for his pint of Old Miner’s Sweat , and settles down to await the next opportunity to proclaim his growing certainty about something.

  20. Love the opening paragraphs of the piece by Peter Kellner :-

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/20/why-ukips-rivals-are-fighting-wrong-battle/

    And the Poll is interesting too.

  21. Ann in Wales

    I think it’s expected to be around 3.30am

  22. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Will be interesting in dropped percentage terms since the last GE if labour loses more than the Tories.

    This may be the Tories spin line of “we did bad but you did worse in a normal Tory Labour battle and by the way we will win it back again in May”.

    In my view It would start to suggest that apart from areas of mass immigration such as London and Luton Labour are pretty much dead as a force anywhere below Peterborough

  23. Alec

    Interesting piece, and I’m glad to see that you now think that a Tory win in 2015 is quite possible. I don’t see the Tory party being destroyed though in your scenario. As you say it has always been pragmatic and I think it will continue to be so.

    How about another scenario where Cameron does not get what he wants, leads the Out’s in a referendum and the Tory Government takes us out of the EU. This turns out to be fantastic for Britain and our economy steams ahead while the EU quietly falls apart because it will not abandon the Euro. In those circumstances I could not see either Labour or the LibDems being a force in UK politics for a considerable period.

    John B

    “One way of changing this situation would be to insist that no-one be elected to parliament until he or she has lived in the real world for a while…”

    Totally agree with that but I’m afraid it isn’t going to happen.

  24. @CANDY
    I really do not wish to prolong this discussion, but, I would point out that to my knowledge, Mark Reckless had never expressed a view that repatriating established tax paying residents was a possible option, whilst a member of the Conservative party. What he says now is his affair. After all Oswald Moseley left the Labour party to found the British Union of Fascists.

  25. AW

    Was that 7:14 post of mine auto-modded or did it incur your wrath?

  26. Bramley,
    Thank you so much.A little late for me although I often wake up at 4am,goodness knows why,so I may catch the fallout then.

  27. CROSSBAT11

    I find your elaboration unconvincing. In 2010, Reckless obtained 49.2% of the vote – a result you describe as safe. However, Marshall-Andrews obtained 48.9% of the vote in 1997 and 49% of the vote in 2005. The difference in the vote count was due in part to a higher total turnout (48,000 in 2010 contrasting with 38,000 in 2001) If the seat is (in your terms) safe Tory with 49% (rounded) of the vote, then it was safe Labour under Marshall-Andrews with 49% (rouinded) of the vote. Unless, of course you are suggesting 0.2% makes the difference between marginal and safe?

  28. Just saw a pic of the man with the van (and the flags). Apparently he voted conservative in 2010. Maybe they’ll use him in their next party political broadcast.

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