Survation had a new Scottish poll out for the Daily Record this morning. It showed the same sort of surge in SNP support that we’ve seen in other recent Scottish polls from Ipsos MORI, YouGov and Panelbase – in this case Westminster voting intentions are CON 17%, LAB 24%, LDEM 6%, SNP 46%, UKIP 5% (tabs are here.) I don’t imagine uniform swing calculators are really any sort of guide to how things would work out in a re-alignment of this sort of huge scale, but on paper these figures would give the SNP 52 seats in Scotland and Labour just five, and in practice it would surely produce a huge number of SNP gains. The question remains whether Labour can mount a recovery in Scotland prior to the election once they have elected a new leader, or whether this SNP surge will be maintained.

This afternoon there was also some reporting of a new Opinium poll (tabs here). Opinium don’t seem to have officially released voting intention figures, but they are provided as crossbreaks on a new poll, so we can see that the VI figures would have been CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%. This would be the first Tory lead from Opinium since the Omnishambles budget, and the lowest any poll has shown the Lib Dems so far this Parliament.


291 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll and a Tory lead from Opinium”

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  1. In fact the lowest since 1990, according to Mark Pack’s database

  2. 1-0 to …

    England

  3. Number Cruncher made the point on the previous thread that the Opinium poll doesn’t have any political weighting and this means it tends to move about more with out that stabilising factor. Unlike MORI they don’t even ask past vote so there’s no way of telling if a particular sample is skewed that way.

    It’s also worth adding that they normally also use likelihood to vote as well and this won’t be reflected in these figures. So they probably should be treated as exactly comparable to the previous Observer set.

  4. It rather looks as if Survation has escaped instead of been released.
    Whatever, I bet the member for Sheffield Hallam wished it hadn’t been born at all.

  5. @ Welsh border

    Yes, but it’s just one goal, which is well within the margin of error. We need to wait for more goals to see if it’s a trend, or if it’s a blip that will quickly revert to 0-0.

  6. Good Evening All.

    Tories edged ahead, I think.

    Lib Dem figure of 5% is surprising, IMO.

  7. Sorry, Of course I mean Opinium.

  8. Tories within 7% of Labour in Scotland. When did this last happen?

  9. Sadly, Maloney didn’t even manage to put his vote into the ballot box. :-(

  10. Actually, since we’re into “pooling and sharing”, that’s half a goal each. :-(

  11. Looks like Labour in Scotland are finished.

    But is that bad news for the left?

    The SNP are definitely more Old Labour than the current UK Labour party. They wont go into coalition with anyone except – possibly – Labour.

    So the seats will still ‘belong’ to the left.

  12. Not very good is it? The football too.

    I saw better watching Bristol Rovers vs Kidderminster Harriers last Saturday (CB11 may be interested to know?).

  13. D in F
    Yes, i think that is the point really. It reminds me of the flight from Red LD to Labour and then possibly on to Green.

  14. David in France

    “Looks like Labour in Scotland are finished.”

    Too soon to say that I think. Much will depend on whether the remaining Labour members are radical enough to “Bavarianise” their relationship with the GB Labour Party.

  15. “The question remains whether Labour can mount a recovery in Scotland prior to the election once they have elected a new leader…”

    I thought Labour were sticking with Ed?

    Or do you know something we don’t?

  16. Are the Lib Dems returning to “asterisk” status ?

  17. Half time – can look at the tables … Hmm wonder if Opinium asked their respondents to declare their voting intention before or after all those loaded Questions which ignored issues like the NHS and wage levels where Labour tend to have more support.

    Oh and now 2-0

  18. Welsh Borderer

    I can see little value in this Opinium poll.

  19. James Abbott,

    This is a myth – the lowest the Lib Dems ever scored was 3% (I think it was MORI?) in 1989. Asterisk status is reserved for less than 1% (again I think, Anthony may be able to confirm!)

  20. I do not post from a pro-Tory point of view usually. However, it strikes me that one should be fair. If the Tories are doing well, then say so. It seems to me that the Tories are doing better recently compared with Labour i.e. it is less unusual to see a small Tory lead in a poll. Of course there are also still some small Labour leads also.

    Following, that “fair to the Tories assessment”, I should like to mention the video withEd Miliband and Myleene Klass.

    RosieandDaisy seem to be more impressed by Klass than by Miliband, maybe.

    I saw the video on the Guardian website, and reached a conclusion, formed an opinion, then I saw the video on the Telegraph website which was a shorter video, and reached the same conclusion, formed the same opinion.

    Myleene Klass attacks Ed Miliband’s idea for a mansion tax. Ed Miliband is polite to Myleen Klaas.
    He does not dominate; He states his case. He does not wipe the floor with Klaas. He is polite.

    Klass is forceful. Miliband is polite, and puts his case.

    Miliband’s case is stronger than Klass’s case. Does anyone disagree with that? [This would not be the place for them to say so anyway – AW]

    Perhaps if you want to put a pro-Miliband perspective on the video, it is like an amateur in the ring with a professional boxer. The professional treats the amateur gently.

  21. @Adge3

    The Conservatives are doing better at the moment, in that they are polling no better or worse than the start of the year, compared to Labour being well down from the same point.

    However, both parties are on the floor of their of poll ratings though. It can’t be fun for either.

  22. @ADGE3

    EM’s style is to be polite rather than forceful. Oddly so was Tony Blair’s and that didn’t much harm him.

    What EM is fighting is negative first impressions.

  23. Well looking at most of the comments on the news from Rachel Reeves and Yvette Cooper today in the online papers and on twitter, those new immigration policies are looking good for UKIP and the Greens and down for Labour.

    The Greens are also supposed to surprise in Rochester:

    Rebecca Fane-Hervey [email protected] ·
    Green candidate in the Rochester by-election says he’s lost count of number of Labour supporters who have come over to the Greens #rochester

    But the Labour candidate says:

    Labour candidate in Rochester tells @BBCNormanS immigration dominating by-election because “UKIP have moved the debate on to immigration”

    So sounds like they are all going UKIP.

    All sounds like a looming disaster for Labour.

  24. @Richard

    Labour has to have policies on immigration as well as do all other parties. They can’t simply duck the subject. We’ll see what effect it has on polling.

  25. Survation also have a poll of 1002 people “who had expressed an opinion during the last year to vote for the SNP in the next Holyrood election” – so the potential pool of SNP voters, and not a cross section of the population.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/SNP-Voters-Poll-+-cover-sheet.pdf

    VI for Westminster, Holyrood constituency, and Holyrood list (in that order) was

    SNP : 75,7%, 81%, 66.6%
    Lab : 6.3%, 4%, 5.6%
    Con : 3.6%, 2.9%, 2.6%
    UKIP : 3.9%, 0.7%, 2.8%
    LD : 1%, 0.8%, 2%
    Grn : 0.6%, 0.9%, 9.5%
    ?? : 8.3%, 9%, 9%

    It then goes on to ask about various possible policies which might persuade them to vote Labour, if they were Labour policy.

    Q15. A Labour policy of permanently abolishing tuition fees for university education in Scotland.
    Q16. A Labour policy of free nursery places for children from the age of 12 months
    Q17. A Labour policy to introduce a mandatory living wage of at least £7.85 an hour
    Q18. A Labour policy to re-nationalise Scottish rail services
    Q19. A Labour policy to decommission the Trident nuclear weapons system based in Faslane in Scotland.

    Sounds like an exploration by some bit of LiS (or Unions) to explore/influence how to get back some voters from the SNP, in the context of the LiS leadership election.

  26. Sorry

    “to vote for the SNP in the next Westminster or Holyrood election””

  27. @OldNat

    Send the list to Jim Murphy. Make his day.

  28. I know R&S is LD no-go territory, but Oddschecker seem to think they may be outpolled by the (Official) Loonies.

  29. RAF

    Poll was commissioned by Progressive Polling (which I think is a London Labour front organisation) so Jim will have seen it all in his local; paper anyway.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-can-win-back-scottish-support-with-tuition-fees-promise-and-free-nursery-places-poll-reveals-9869006.html

  30. Football over and back to polling.

    North and South it’s looking drastic for Labour.

    Tories ahead in yet another poll means the tipping point has been reached or even breached from now on.

    It’s grim…
    .
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    ……………..for Labour.

  31. RAF

    Peculiar assumptions by PP & Evening Standard that if Labour adopted SNP policies, current SNP voters would (as opposed to just might) vote Labour.

    I think Anthony has previously coruscated these “more/less likely to” questions.

  32. RAF

    Poor assumptions by PP & Evening Standard that if Labour adopted SNP policies, current SNP voters would (as opposed to just might) vote Labour.

    I think Anthony has previously coruscated these “more/less likely to” questions.

  33. mrnameless

    Yes I know it is – but its a good myth and Paddy Ashdown often refers to it, presumably on the basis that “there is no need to panic as we have been here before” – ha ha…

    They may hold in seats where they are well dug in and with a locally popular MP – such as Colchester and some seats in the South and South West, but otherwise they look set to be wiped out, especially in the North. I predict Clegg will lose his seat.

    “This is a myth – the lowest the Lib Dems ever scored was 3% (I think it was MORI?) in 1989. Asterisk status is reserved for less than 1% (again I think, Anthony may be able to confirm!)”

  34. YouGov/Sun: CON 32 (-1) LAB 34 (+2) LIB 7 (=) UKIP 15 (=) GRN 6 (-2)

  35. @Oldnat – “Too soon to say that I think. Much will depend on whether the remaining Labour members are radical enough to “Bavarianise” their relationship with the GB Labour Party.”

    Agreed. I posted a while ago my thoughts that Labour should ‘get with the program’, as the Americans say, and divide into three parties for three nations, sitting together in the HoC as a coalition with a single agreed leader and an agreed set of policies. Doubt this kind of thing will ever happen, as it’s a bit radical.

  36. So taken at face value, tonight’s polls again show Labour ahead, which obviously means it’s a disaster for them.

  37. @Allan

    There you are, teasing that crossover was in the room, and the YG post a result to the contrary ;-)

  38. That yougov poll looks a bit more usual than today’s did. Will be interesting to see the approval figures, particularly as today’s was -18 & out of kilter with approval figures we have seen so frequently.

  39. OLDNAT
    Syzygy
    They might at least have followed local tradition – waited till November and blown it up. :-)

    Don’t worry – they did :)

  40. Syzygy

    Nice to see the old traditions are still in place. :-)

  41. CATMANJEFF
    @Allan

    There you are, teasing that crossover was in the room, and the YG post a result to the contrary ;-)
    ___

    Okay the crossover is getting closer. ;-)

  42. I think the lds are sunk. Labour are taking ukip on, fools!

  43. ALEC
    So taken at face value, tonight’s polls again show Labour ahead, which obviously means it’s a disaster for them.
    _____

    You are right, the polls are looking very strong for Labour. They are on course for a landslide of epic and biblical proportions.

    No doooooom & glooooomm here I say

  44. @ Alec

    “I posted a while ago my thoughts that Labour should ‘get with the program’, as the Americans say, and divide into three parties for three nations, sitting together in the HoC as a coalition with a single agreed leader and an agreed set of policies. Doubt this kind of thing will ever happen, as it’s a bit radical”

    Seems like an excellent idea to me but ideally there would be clarity on what things were best handled at a Union level.These are the ones on which there would have to be unity of purpose. The others would then be for debate and decision within the separate countries.

  45. Well a very pleasing football result and more positive polls north of the border for Devo Max supporters like me.

    Was looking at the regional cross breaks in Survation and interested that the a Labour vote is holding up more strongly in Fife. Perhaps a sign of continuing affection for Gordon Brown and even amongst Yes voters an appreciation of his role in The Vow?

  46. @Phillip

    Tories within 7% of Labour in Scotland. When did this last happen?

    I think Labour got 35% and the Tories 28% in 1983. I don’t know what the difference was in 1992, but the Tories got 25.7% then (again I can’t remember if those figures are exactly correct, but I’m sure they’re about right).

  47. A Wazza brace, victory against the Old Enemy in their own back yard and Labour 2 points ahead in the latest opinion poll.

    If Carlsberg did Tuesday nights…..

    :-)

    P.S. Hobknobs and cocoa supplies in for the Rochester count too.

  48. What a dreadful performance.

    I am of course referring to the footy. I think Chelsea FC would have wiped the floor with both of them.

    Look forward to seeing the YG tables tomorrow.

  49. CB11
    See my earlier localised football ref. I should have enjoyed watching the match with you as well as my son (first live game for me in 45 years). Oh and the pint afterwards with political discussion of course.

  50. Does the fact that the ‘yes’ campaigners appear to have been over represented in the polls prior to indyref mean that the SNP may be overrepresented at present?

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