Survation had a new Scottish poll out for the Daily Record this morning. It showed the same sort of surge in SNP support that we’ve seen in other recent Scottish polls from Ipsos MORI, YouGov and Panelbase – in this case Westminster voting intentions are CON 17%, LAB 24%, LDEM 6%, SNP 46%, UKIP 5% (tabs are here.) I don’t imagine uniform swing calculators are really any sort of guide to how things would work out in a re-alignment of this sort of huge scale, but on paper these figures would give the SNP 52 seats in Scotland and Labour just five, and in practice it would surely produce a huge number of SNP gains. The question remains whether Labour can mount a recovery in Scotland prior to the election once they have elected a new leader, or whether this SNP surge will be maintained.

This afternoon there was also some reporting of a new Opinium poll (tabs here). Opinium don’t seem to have officially released voting intention figures, but they are provided as crossbreaks on a new poll, so we can see that the VI figures would have been CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%. This would be the first Tory lead from Opinium since the Omnishambles budget, and the lowest any poll has shown the Lib Dems so far this Parliament.


291 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll and a Tory lead from Opinium”

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  1. Only 24 hours now until they finish voting in Rochester.

    Countdown to Ecstasy perhaps?

    :-)

  2. @Couper

    I think it is worth staying up for. By-election polls have been inconsistent throughout the parliament (remember H&M was way out) and, unless we get one tonight, it will have been a fair while since the last one by polling day.

    However, intuitively I’d suggest that any difference between polls and the final vote share is likely to be to the benefit of the party whose supporters are more enthusiastic. That is likely to be even more the case at this stage of the parliament – UKIP supporters are motivated to land a blow on CON/LAB whilst non hard core CON/LAB supporters don’t really care about the by-election because it doesn’t change the government.

    —-

    On the Stockton South poll, and all of the other constituency polls, I think we run the risk of doing what we did with other polls when they were less frequent. That is, one off polls are seen as definitive with the potential for error/ occasional rogues not considered. That said, if correct a very interesting poll and goes to show how UKIP could play into Tory hands (as Ashcroft has similarly shown at the other end of the country in Southampton Itchen) in a few cases.

  3. In terms of possible coalitions in a hung Parliament, the SNP and Plaid already act in concert on many things.

    I wonder if the E&W Green Party have thought about replicating the Euro grouping at Westminster, as Leanne wood has suggested?

    “Plaid_Cymru will not prop up a Tory government in Wales or in London. The only rainbow I will back is with the SNP & the Green Party.”

  4. CR
    Wow, really?.
    A in W
    Ah, well I admit I don’t read leaders, does anyone? Well, you do it seems. I would not know where to find them.
    I look at the cartoon, but I only like Rows on, sometimes.

    CB11 got yours re kidder, copy that and will respond,thanks.

  5. Howard,
    Disingenuous ,vous?

  6. A in W
    I swear I never read leaders nor opinions. I have too many of my own, already.
    That circulation figure from Chris R has me reeling. Wow.

  7. I’m looking forward to the Rochester and Strood by-election.

    Labour should take this seat being the main challenger and also with Labour’s strong showing in the national polls this seat really should be an easy win when factoring in the government’s record in gov.

    Labour are hitting the Tories hard over NHS England waiting lists.
    The demographics in the constituency show the population is largely white UK around 90% so immigration can’t be much of an issue here for UKIP to go on.

    David Cameron said a poll in Scotland showed more people believe in the Lochness monster than EM, well this is not Scotland and Nessy aint a factor in little ole Roch & Strood so this is easily a Labour win.

    See if I’m right………………………..right!!

  8. The Tories have made another online attack on Reckless & Farage re-the NHS. A bit surprising if UKIP really are poised to win easily. Or is it desperation?

  9. MISERABLE OLD GIT

    From a previous thread…April 21st, 2010 at 11:52 pm

    “I lived in next-door Chatham from 1975 to 1980, and still follow things here. Though myself a LibDem, I’ll miss BMA in the house. not enough independent thinkers anymore, let alone people with the intellectual credentials to back their independence”
    ____

    Sources tell me Bob Marshall Andrews might do a Cameo appearance on behalf of the Labour candidate. That should bolster Labour.

  10. Quite interesting reading back through the comments in the lead up to the 2010 election on Rochester and Strood.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/rochesterandstrood/comment-page-2/#comments

  11. @AC

    You must have missed the interview with the former Labour MP of Medway. In it he said the constituency he represented was very different to this one due to significant boundary changes which made a Labour win impossible in anything other than a landslide GE year. I’m guessing he knows more about the area than you do.

    It’s actually a very good seat for Ukip. Low immigration, terrible educational standards and domimated by working class forner Tories. Much of North Kent and for that matter Southern Essex comprises solid blue collar Tory voters. The former Medway seat was s perennial marginal. This would not even be close even if Ukip did not stand.

  12. Okay Howard,I believe you,sort of.

  13. I’m also looking forward to the Rochester and Strood results. I think the outcome is a foregone conclusion, it is more what happens to the runners up

    Conservatives. Well, how did that UKIP-Lite candidate work out for you? Did Labour, Greens and LD’s rally around to stop UKIP by voting Tory even when the Tory candidate sounds to the right of UKIP on immigration(see the BBC news tonight)

    Labour. Well they have got their excuses in early. So how low will they go? Will they save their deposit? Will the Greens beat them? (I expect not, but it would definitely help shake things up if they do). They had the best candidate in the debates, will they do better than expected? They should have tried to gather the anti-UKIP vote and had the candidate to do that, but chose to drop 2 immigration bombs on Monday that the Independent declared put them to the right of the Tories on immigration. Becoming a theme that, Labour to the right of the Tories. How did that work out?

    Greens. Will the ‘no to racism’ tagline work? Can they gather the anti-UKIP vote in a seat where no one thinks they stand a chance and the last poll had them on 4%, and all the main contenders are in a race to the bottom on immigration? Is there even an anti-UKIP vote?

    LD’s. Will they beat the MRLP?

    I guess we need an exit poll to be able to answer what happened, and I guess we won’t get one, so everyone will spin it how they want.

  14. Survation have published an explanation as to why they don’t use past vote weighting in constituency polls.

    http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/

    1. population movement – “15-20% of the population resident in an average constituency today might not have been resident there at the time of the last election”

    2. the degree of false recall

    3. “in places with a high degree of “refused” or “can’t remember” responses to the past vote question there is the risk that these people for whom we don’t have past vote data may be disproportionately from one party compared with another.”

    They all seem to be good points – whether they make any constituency poll, on its own, doubtful on any methodology can keep us occupied for weeks! :-)

  15. @AC

    No it really doesn’t. Much of the former Labour vote has been syphoned off to other constituencies due to boundary changes.

  16. Re Survation’s 2. the degree of false recall

    Why should false recall be higher in a single constituency than in a national/regional or GB poll?

  17. NewForestRadical – Survation never do any political weighting in their constituency polls

    Thanks Anthony. Excuse my ignorance but does anyone else?

  18. RAF – ”
    You must have missed the interview with the former Labour MP of Medway. In it he said the constituency he represented was very different to this one due to significant boundary changes which made a Labour win impossible in anything other than a landslide GE year. I’m guessing he knows more about the area than you do.”

    If he said that, then he doesn’t, but I expect it’s a case of “He would say that, wouldn’t he?”. Actually in fairness, he’s half right – the seat is not substantially different by any means, it’s 89% the same. However it is a seat that Labour would only win in an extremely good year like 2001 or 1997.

    The boundary changes in 2010 were modest. There was no deliberate change in the make up of the seat, the boundaries were altered merely to bring them in line with ward boundaries. Primarily this meant the whole of the divided Rochester South and Horsted ward was brought into the seat, while the whole of the divided Chatham Central ward was taken out.

    The boundary changes helped the Conservative party, but not monumentally so ( on my figures it turned a Labour majority of a couple of hundred to a notional Tory one of 1500, on Rallings and Thrasher it turned it to a notional Tory majority of 500).

  19. @ Allan Christie

    Ah, OK, I understand your posts now – you’re a bit of a joker, just like Pressman! Ho ho!

  20. Anthony

    Any commentary on the Survation explanation of not using political weighting?

  21. NewForestRadical –

    Well, not many companies do constituency polls! The only other company to regularly do them is Lord Ashcroft’s and they are politically weighted. ICM and ComRes do very occasional constituency polls and they also use political weighting.

  22. [Allan – snip. These are not, by any means, coming across as being in the spirit of non-partisanship. Please desist – AW]
    _______

    Okay point taken….Just pulling a few legs.

  23. Oldnat – I try to explain differences, not pass judgement upon them. Generally speaking I would always prefer a politically weighted poll to one without political weighting. In the event there were two polls showing different results, one using political weighting and one not, my money would usually go on the politically weighted one. In practice though Survation’s by-election polls and Ashcroft’s ones seem to show much of a muchness, so I wouldn’t worry unduly about it.

    The issues Survation raise are legitimate ones, particularly about people moving house. One of the few benefits of not being able to do constituency polls though is that I don’t have to make decisions on how to address them, they are someone else’s problem :)

  24. Rochester and Strood was held by Labour bot so long ago and if UKIP win the seat on Thursday then Labour must ask themselves why the votes went to UKIP and not them?

    It’s the same in the 2011 election in Scotland when the Lib/Dem vote collapsed and it went disproportionality to the SNP.

    A UKIP win would surely ask questions of both the Tories and Labour!

  25. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

  26. More You Gov yoyo polling..

    Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics 8s8 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

  27. CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

  28. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories back in front with one point lead: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

  29. Based on last 5 polls Labour lead by 0.4%

  30. Anthony

    Thanks. I don’t expect you to be judgmental about your colleagues in other companies, but your insights are always valuable.

  31. CATMANJEFF

    “Based on last 5 polls Labour lead by 0.4%”
    ____

    I’m not sure how long that 0’4% will hold up until the tipping point. 24 hours?

  32. Anyone got the nightly yougov poll? Lol

  33. DC must be pleased, good news off setting bad R and S news.

  34. Well that Conservative score of 34 is the best Conservative score since 23 Oct. And that 14 for UKIP is their lowest since 8 Oct.

    Are the Conservatives finally reclaiming their UKIP defectors? Or just MOE? Maybe their turn right is working and Rochester will astonish us all!

  35. Richard

    “Rochester will astonish us all!”

    By not marrying Jane Eyre? (I’ll get my coat)

    Isn’t the bouncing around that we see in GB polls just a symptom that there is febrility within the English electorate?

  36. New thread.

  37. @AC

    Labour held the seat by a handful of votes in 2005. There were then significant boundary changes. What part of that do you not understand? Medway is NOT R &S.

  38. Some rather ugly stuff going on around the government tonight. While the polls suggest a distinct tightening, I’m beginning to wonder whether we are seeing the first signs of Labour finding their feet and Tories losing theirs.

    The Klaas ‘£2m garage’ story seems to have brought out a bit of fight within Labour. At first I dismissed this story, but 2 days on it seems that Ed has come out looking better than Klaas, and a policy pledge has got much more coverage. The episode still shows Ed’s weakness and inability to be normal, but being attacked by people who think £2m buys a garage perhaps won’t hurt Labour.

    On the other side, there are two stories on the blue side to worry about. Dominic Cummins – no friend of Cameron’s, but still a Tory – has said some dreadful things about the administration, although they ring true. In itself, this isn’t news, but it does illustrate where the blues are struggling. Too many people see through the vapid promises, not least as the promises seem to keep changing.

    Which leads to the next thing to catch my eye, which was statements made by Ollie Letwin that Cameron could well campaign to take us out of the UK, while the EU Minister David Lidington said we would never be free of EU rules even if we voted to leave.

    With talk of further defections if UKIP win tomorrow, it’s clear that Cameron’s EU strategy, designed to placate his party, has fallen apart. This is the link to the Cummins critique, who says No 10 don’t have a plan for more than 10 days ahead, with the news grid the main driver of decision making.

    But the divisions within Tory ranks are there, and Cameron has gone from saying the EU is good for the UK to promising he could take us out – again echoing Cummin’s assessment that Cameron has no priorities.

    It seems pretty clear that Cameron is moving towards an exit policy which he really doesn’t believe in, which I would think will prove a very dangerous position for his party to be in.

    The saving grace is that this won’t matter so much before May 2015, and the way the polls are moving may well see Cameron return as PM.

    But I really do feel that this is when his problems really start. The tide appears to be running, and the Tory ship is already grinding on the rocks of Europe. Whichever way Cameron tries to tack, he hasn’t been able to find clear water, and if he is PM again, there is no hiding place.

    My personal belief is that should the Tory party become the party to leave the EU, that will be the end of them as an effective party of government.

  39. @RAF

    Bob Marshall-Andrews as MP for the area for 13 years probably does know what he’s talking about… the boundary changes in 2010 were more a case of the final straw though, removing half of the only remaining solid Labour ward, and adding in a heavily Tory area.

    Andrews probably better able to guage the demographic changes which have turned other wards. River for example went from a two Lab councillor ward to a two Con councillor ward in a short space of time.

    Strictly a small geographic boundary change, but new housing developments etc contributing to a larger demographic change…the “notional” 2010 estimates didn’t really take this into account imo..

  40. @Billy Bob

    Thanks for the clarification.

  41. Tabs are no longer on the Opinium website!

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