Today we have our three regular Monday polls and all three are showing Labour and the Conservatives within a point of each other:

Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7% (tabs here).

The twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. This is the lowest that any poll has shown UKIP for a while, though Populus do tend to give them some of their lowest scores anyway (tabs here).

Finally YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. The eight point score for the Greens is the highest that YouGov have shown to date, and only the second time they’ve put them ahead of the Liberal Democrats.


271 Responses to “Monday’s Populus, Ashcroft and YouGov polls”

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  1. @COLIN
    Regarding your post to Charles, I very much agree with you.
    If left of centre persons, be they “Saxonmen” or “Picts”, think that the matter of Devo Max is going to end at Berwick on Tweed, they are wrong.
    Furthermore, as I was saying 3 days ago on this board, Labour cannot continue to cost along with a 2 or (wow) 3 point lead, with the most unpopular leader of all time. That is why it is so important he stays.

  2. ALLAN

    Thanks :-)

  3. @COLIN

    COST SHOULD BE COAST.

  4. CHARLES

    “I live outside Scotland but this sounds plausible. So it looks as if Labour are being punished a) for complacency b) for similarity to the Tories c) because there is no Scottish need to keep the Tories out of Westminster,

    In response to which they should presumably a) put out a clearer left of centre message b) articulate an enthusiastic ‘devo max’ type position c) show that their policies seek to exploit the potential of the union for the good of all. After all in theory workers of the world should unite, and a majority of Scots don’t want to divide. The problem is to show convincingly how they reap something positive from not doing so.
    ________

    But the problem for Labour is that the SNP are saying the 2015 election is not a re-run of the indy ref but to ensure more powers for Holyrood.

    Whatever message Labour put out at the election the SNP can simply counterbalance by saying..”elected a SNP MP and we will ensure substantial new powers are delivered”.

    On the Tory issue which Labour keep harping on about.”vote SNP and you get Tory” is pie in the sky now. People might prefer a Tory PM to a Labour PM in Scotland, I know I do.

  5. Hmmm – talk of a ‘New Green Deal’ might not inspire many. The ‘Green Deal’ is one of the shining failures of this government.

    Elsewhere, inflation up – wiping out the wages increase. That lasted a long time, didn’t it?

  6. POSTAGE

    @”Time for a different plan.”

    The one where we spend no more than we earn?

  7. ROLY

    Amen to that :-)

  8. Based on YouGov’s numbers, a Labour-Lib coalition would have an overall majority in the HoC.

  9. I am bemused that many former Labour voters now plan to vote SNP on the basis that Labour was ‘against Independence’. When was Labour ever in favour of Independence? If this is the key issue for these people why did they vote Labour in 2010 or 2005 – or indeed any earlier election? They appear to be – as it were – somewhat intellectually challenged.

  10. @Roland

    “@OLD NAT
    I think we all consider you to be the Captain, nay, Commodore of the good ship SNP on this board. Therefore may I congratulate you on your continued success in the polling. My enemy’s enemy, is my friend. I sure we are a new version of the Ribbentrop/Molotov pact, but never mind, at the moment great job.”
    _____

    Coming from you, that rather bears out my earlier contention that the SNP surge is the Conservative insurance policy, in changing the worst case GE 2015 outcome (for the Conservatives) from a majority Labour government to a minority Labour administration with every prospect of falling within the year, at which point the Conservatives have another shot at getting back in.

  11. MBRUNO
    That sounds very believable. But to coin a phrase so beloved of 1980’s trade union leaders, “at this moment in time”.

  12. GRAHAM

    @”They appear to be – as it were – somewhat intellectually challenged.”

    Oh oh!-that’s Fruitcake talk-and look where that got him :-)

  13. @GRAHAM
    You cannot have read my recent posts regarding people in England, voting for Blair 3 times on the trot, and now turning to a party who hates Europe and wishes to stop immigration. Many of them would be delighted with repatriation.

    Are they right in the head, or is the result of the x factor more important than all this politics crap?

  14. @PHIL HAINES
    I have secret hopes it might even be better than that. But don’t say anything.

  15. @ AW

    Just got that intel pop up you wanted us to report. Happened on the main board when I went from one page to the next.

    [Thanks – can anyone who gets it let me know the address it tries to send them too – AW]

  16. @ Alec

    I tend to agree with your opinion on the Green vote but equally you could be wrong. It only needs two mindsets to happen. One that people genuinely don’t care who gets in next time and don’t mind “wasting” their vote. The other is that they happily agree with the Green manifesto/agenda.

    On point 2 I am sure there are 5-7% of the electorate comfortable with voting Green because their policies are close enough to their beliefs.

    On point 1 you just have to look at the LD vote in 2010 in the most marginal of marginals on AW target seats. The average LD vote in seats they surely knew they weren’t going to win seems to be around 17% (even with a squeeze operating) and I can’t find one that fell below 10%.

    Obviously this doesn’t mean the Greens win any more seats or even hold Brighton but it doesn’t rule them out achieving 5% vote on UNS.

  17. @Alec

    The key word was “embedded”, but perhaps I should have added “abandoned” – comrades whose sect fizzled out or turned, leaving them entered but unsupported from outside.

    But suppoted as entryists or not, these aren’t generally people who identify themselves readily any more. Believe me, they are working in your party, including some individuals I was acquainted with long ago. A lot of Trots I knew could speak “civil liberties” as fluently as natives – I doubt that “green” is any more difficult to master. And Anarchists, having no coherent ideology, are even better at blending in.

  18. It’s not that ‘Yes’ voters are voting against Labour because they opposed independence, but because the SNP have been running a “London is the Devil” campaign, and that all the other major parties are “The London Parties”. Tie that up with a maximum brand recognition peak, and SNP get high figures.

    They are essentially running the same campaign as UKIP, but substituting “London” for “Brussels”, and benefiting greatly from geographical concentration.

  19. GRAHAM

    “I am bemused that many former Labour voters now plan to vote SNP on the basis that Labour was ‘against Independence’. When was Labour ever in favour of Independence? If this is the key issue for these people why did they vote Labour in 2010 or 2005 – or indeed any earlier election? They appear to be – as it were – somewhat intellectually challenged”
    ________

    I think many of them were first time voters and well before the indy ref and I’m talking historically, polls showed support for independence was usually higher than that for the SNP which I’m guessing a large part of them were Labour voters or supporters who may have never voted before but inclined to back Labour.

    Perhaps and it’s just my opinion but if Labour ran their own campaign for the union rather than opting out of the largest political debate in UK history involving over 7,000 School children and dumping George Galloway on them then they might had come out of it better.

    I don’t think it’s so much what Labour said during the campaign but more to do with the way it was delivered.

  20. Alec,

    I may make a leap of judgement and assume that you do not live in a university town or city. Young Greens I have met are often clearly of the far left and vote for the Greens as they’re considered the best of a bad bunch.

    One anarchist votes for them although admittedly they aren’t a member.

  21. JAYBLANC

    Labour use the anti Tory narrative in Scotland at every election and so far it has been very successful.

    The Tories use the deficit to hammer home to voters that Labour can’t be trusted.

    Are the SNP not allowed to have a narrative?

  22. If the current, apparent, SNP VI turns into reality in 2015 and they win the bulk of Scottish Westminster seats, then it’ll be clear that the Scottish electorate has, after all, chosen the independence road.

    In those circumstances, rUK should aid the Scots in their plans and do all they can to help. In fact, we should insist that they go off on their own – we’d have no wish to detain them if they want to go.

  23. @AlanC

    Interesting Holyrood numbers from that Survation poll.

    Fed into Scotland Votes it gives the following result:

    SNP 70 (68) +1
    Labour 27 (0) -10
    Conservative 16 (3) +1
    Lib Dem 6 (2) +1
    Green 10 (0) +8

    party, seats, (constituency seats), change from 2011

    Labour to lose in every constituency (mainly to SNP) with the exception being Eastwood which is lost to Conservatives.

    Caveat being that Scotland Votes doesn’t take into account UKIP and at 7.7% on the list they would likely be picking up 2-3 seats in South of Scotland and Lothian probably at the expense of Conservative, Lib Dems and Greens.

    I still think it is most likely that SNP will narrowly lose their overall majority in 2016 thanks to an increase in Green regional voting intention with Greens very likely to increase from 2 MSPs to 8-9 MSPs based on current voting intention.

    However this scenario shows that it is possible for Greens to gain MSPs on the regional list at the expense of other parties if the SNP can make gains from Labour in Constituency results in the West of Scotland.

  24. “I may make a leap of judgement and assume that you do not live in a university town or city..”

    Technically correct, but only just. I don’t live in a city, but Mrs A is a student at a top university with a thriving green vote.

  25. On the subject of referendums, it’s time for the fortnightly YouGov In/Out question again:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kocfpy6y21/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-171114.pdf

    and it show a tie with 39% for remaining, 39% for leaving. As usual the second question that posits Cameron returning with concessions is much more definite as Conservatives react to back him (58-24). This indeed is where the greater movement was since last time.

    This suggests that all the fuss about the one-off payment was probably more successful in shoring up core support than wining over UKIP . Though given that Tory policy was basically have a big row, strike dramatic attitudes, and then capitulate completely, that was never that likely.

    Of course one of the interesting sideshows to all this (how momentous it was supposed to be at the time; how quickly it has been forgotten) was the way in which YouGov kept on being asked to produce different In/Out questions in an attempt to show that Brits were overwhelmingly convinced to leave unless concessions were made. Or, as it turned out, not.

    It has to be pointed out that other pollsters show greater willingness to go. Survation’s poll for MoS just over a week ago showed 51% leave, 31% stay, but they find higher UKIP VI that others (24%) which may bias it (they do seem to be weighting by past vote again though). They did use LTV as well, which actually helped the Stay side a little – against the common expectation that the Out side is keener.

  26. May will be an odd campaign for the SNP.

    Firstly it will, on current polling, be the first Westminster election where we are in front. We looked like we could make gains before but never I think looked like we could win.

    Win in the Scottish context being 30 seats, more than half.

    The focus will undoubtedly be more powers which, as it’s an election, will mean Smith+ ; asking for more than the Smith commission suggests.

    That might mean attacks from other Parties but only if they all agree on a set package rather than all put forward their own and even then replying the Referendum in claiming London is selling you short may well be a good basis for a campaign given the mood.

    We already have the idea of the “Four Yes” for the EU. Referendum and I suspect that both PC and the NI Parties might back that in the election campaign.

    Again that puts Labour and the Tories in Wales and Scotland on a back foot. I have a feeling the Federal LibDems who are the most pro European might back it as they haven’t much to loose.

    Being absolutely clear they won’t do any deal with the Tories kills “Vote SNP get Tory” stone dead and being prepared to support a Labour Government should appeal to Labour switchers.

    It will be interesting if Neil Findley pips Jim Murphy because it offers the possibility of a Trident deal, probably involving a larger SSN fleet on the Clyde instead of new SSBN’s.

    The nuclear compromise might be Cruise Missile Nukes stored at Portsmouth a decade from now. Although that would probably mean a tacky “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy when they were at Faslane.

    Not what I would want but it’s feasible.

    But the big fights for the SNP will be more and perminant powers for the Scottish Parliment probably including enshrining Barnett into a new settlement which may be a sort of reverse formula where instead of Scotland getting a proportional share of English spending England gets a proportion of Scottish spending based on Scotlands population share.

    This might seem perverse as if Scotland raises tax England gets more money, but if as projected Scotlands population grows by 5% over 20 years and England’s by over 20% the percentage would drop over time.

    Peter.

  27. I used the expression ‘New Green Deal’ to signify the detailed proposals of New Economic Forum. The ‘New Deal’ is an obvious allusion to the keynsianism adopted by FDR’s New Deal in ’30’s US.

    It was short hand for anti-austerity economics with commitment to job creation and a social security network, contained within a programme of climate change mitigation.

    That the Conservatives chose to name their initiative, the ‘Green deal’, was clearly unhelpful to the Nef proposals.

  28. In other news:

    There will be a snap election in Japan on Dec 14th.

    Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of polling there (one poll a month) and that seems to be pretty crude, with undecideds and no party left in headline figures, no taking into account that the election is partly done on a constituency basis partly done on a d’hondt regional basis with people voting in very different manners.

    I can’t even find if it’s a voting intention or “party support” poll. It seems to have been conducted by NHK, the national broadcaster, there’s no tables and although it’s hinting some sort of weighting has been applied, there’s no details on that either.

    It was a telephone poll though.

    I think AW should draft a strongly worded letter.

  29. Northumbrianscot

    I used “Independent” as a surrogate for UKIP in Scotland Votes, and that came out as UKIP having 2 list MSPs, which seems quite likely.

  30. SYZYGY

    I think it would be very difficult for Labour to go green if this meant saying, say, –
    reversion to road fuel price increases, the proceeds to be spent on local public transport, walking and cycling.

    So they won’t. I have wondered whether the Conservative VI holding firm was not attributable to the recent fuel price reductions. It would be just as likely as any of this fancy political stuff.

  31. @Graham
    @Allan Christie

    As a ex-Labour member now intending to vote SNP.at the May GE The reason is that only an SNP vote will give us a chance of Devo-Max and will depending on the electoral arithmetic push a more left wing stance on a Labour minority, small majority government. In simple terms Labour + SNP will be more left wing then Labour alone.

    The harm Labour did to themselves in the referendum is now fairly obvious and I have posted about it for some time. You can’t tell people for 35 years that the Tories are their enemy and them ally yourselves with the said enemy, thwarting many of your own voters in the process, and expect to be trusted ever again.

  32. Survation Scottish poll

    While the geographic crossbreaks are subject to all the usual caveats as in any poll, for Westminster, they might give an indicator of where concentrated votes might help parties, while a dispersed vote kills them under FPTP..

    Also where concentrated votes for Green or UKIP might tip the balance in a tight contest.

    SNP are the biggest party in every region, Labour are 2nd except in H&I and Lothian, where the Tories are in 2nd place.

    The SNP lead over Lab is – NE 42% : West 26% : South 21% : Glasgow as well as Mid & Fife13% : Central 9%

    and over Con is Lothian 21% : H&I 16%.

    That suggests that the SNP have not made deep enough inroads in Glasgow, Central, and Fife to gain all the sweeping colour changes that the calculators suggest.

    LDs are predictably strongest in H&I 9%, South 13%, and Fife10%, and if the vote is sufficiently concentrated in their heartland, they could keep some mainland seats.

    Greens have 5% in Lothian. If they are similar to the E&W Greens in attitude, they might damage Labour in a couple of seats.

    UKIP’s highest shares are in Mid&Fife 8% and Glasgow 7% (I’d guess a fair bit of Orange Order vote).

  33. @roland

    “You cannot have read my recent posts regarding people in England, voting for Blair 3 times on the trot, and now turning to a party who hates Europe and wishes to stop immigration
    (snip)
    Are they right in the head”

    Comments like this only make sense when great chunks of reality are censored out of the political debate.

    Between 1998-2008 the banks created the biggest credit bubble in history leading to a massive debt overhang when the bubble burst crippling the western economies.

    Blair and New Labour rode the wave of people being high on cheap credit during that bubble.

    It’s not complicated.

    This simple fact is erased from debate because the spin from the political and media wing of the banks is that all those millions of people and all those scores of governments all round the world all suddenly decided to borrow more for no reason. But it’s not true. They all suddenly started borrowing more because the banks lowered the cost of borrowing.

    Supply and demand innit.

    (nb I agree they borrowed too much btw – easy for me personally as i don’t think the government should be allowed to borrow any money at all except in war time – but it happened for a reason and that reason was the banks creating a credit bubble.)

    Secondly immigration has been the #1 or #2 issue for the public for what is it now – six to eight years?

    The political and media class ignoring a problem is not the same as it not being there.

    .

    @jayblanc

    “the SNP have been running a “London is the Devil” campaign, and that all the other major parties are “The London Parties”. Tie that up with a maximum brand recognition peak, and SNP get high figures.
    They are essentially running the same campaign as UKIP, but substituting “London” for “Brussels”, and benefiting greatly from geographical concentration.”

    zactly zo although I’d say Ukip are actually riding both i.e. that both Brussels and London are the devil.

  34. COUPER2802

    @”. You can’t tell people for 35 years that the Tories are their enemy and them ally yourselves with the said enemy”

    I am very happy with the turn of events in Scotland.

    But I find that outlook completely incomprehensible.

    The Referendum was about Independence-a concept transcending-indeed totally unconnected with-party politics.

    What are you saying-

    Espousal of the Union is a purely Tory idea?
    Labour should have campaigned against the Union, even though they believe in the Union?
    Labour should have campaigned for the Union seperately?

    No wonder we don’t understand your politics down here .

  35. HOWARD

    I think your last para is not unconnected from VI .

    As is this I suspect :-
    “This means shoppers are now paying less for a representative basket of groceries than they did in 2013. This is another record low since Kantar Worldpanel began recording GPI in October 2006 and reflects the impact of Aldi and Lidl and the market’s competitive response, as well as deflation in some major categories including vegetables, milk and bread.”

    Kantar.

  36. Quoting myself

    “that both Brussels and London are the devil.”

    they may not be aware they’re riding both

    (it’s an easy segway for them to make just by pointing out that parliament is increasingly a branch office of Brussels)

  37. OLDNAT,

    And how much of that LibDem 10% in Fife will disappear with Ming Campbell and how much of the 9% in Highland belongs to Charlies Kennedy?

    I suspect enough to keep Charlie at Westminster but not enough to hold on in Fife!

    Peter.

  38. @Colin

    Labour campaigned with the Tories, the very people that for 35 years ,they have said are enemies of Scotland. They shared platforms with them and they espoused a single message. Labour have fostered a hatred of Tories in Scotland and have benefitted from the anti-Tory vote. They fiorgot they created an anti-Tory Scotland not a pro-Labour Scotland.

    If they had a separate campaign focussing on benefits of union and Labour policies with a clearly stated devolution agenda. ‘No’ still would have won because Tories and big business would have still ran the scare stories but Labour would not have been as damaged. But Labour let their hatred of the SNP override good sense.

  39. Peter Cairns

    I doubt that the samples are big enough to tell us much about that.

    As far as H&I are concerned, there’s the O&S vote too (small though that constituency is) to remove from the Highland figures. Like you, I’ve always thought that Charlie will be re-elected – if he doesn’t step down on health grounds or similar. Would he really want to be an MP in a HoC where the ambulance chasers are out dragging in every vote?

    I suspect in Mid& Fife, the LD vote will be too dispersed to keep NE Fife.

    In the South, I wouldn’t be surprised if Michael Moore holds on. Only a guess, but I would imagine that the LD vote is highly concentrated in his seat.

  40. @Couper2802 – “You can’t tell people for 35 years that the Tories are their enemy and them ally yourselves with the said enemy”

    If the Tories told you not to stick your hand in a fire, I imagine you would have a dilemma.

  41. Anthony

    [Thanks – can anyone who gets it let me know the address it tries to send them too – AW]
    _____________________________________________
    I posted the address it sent me to yesterday at the end of the last thread. I also googled it, and it does seem to be coming from an advert as other people are reporting the same issue on other sites.

  42. @Colin

    Gordon Brown did try to run a Labour only campaign :United with Labour’ which got little traction – as Darling, Murphy and others were playing out old rivalries – another aspect of the tragedy that is Scottish Labour – In the end they had to draft in Brown anyway. But, if Labour had stayed out of Better Together and instead ran a Brown led ‘United with Labour’ campaign – they would be in far better shape.

    I wonder if this outcome is what the Tories intended all aliong when they had Labour front Better Together.

  43. @Chris Green

    I am not sure of your point. But since I am one of the Labour folk that is now backing the SNP I am trying to answer questions as honestly as possible.

  44. Richard – I missed that yesterday, many thanks.

  45. @ Howard

    ‘I think it would be very difficult for Labour to go green if this meant saying, say, –
    reversion to road fuel price increases, the proceeds to be spent on local public transport, walking and cycling.’
    ————————————————————————

    I take your point (and the blue IV holding up with falling petrol prices). However, implicit in your PoV is that the green policies would have to be funded by tax increases or cuts, which is indeed the current mainstream and neokeynsian thinking about ‘spending’

    However, FDR did not increase taxes or make cuts, in order to create jobs. Neither did Churchill or Attlee to fund WW2 … and they were still on the Gold Standard! Jobs = Income = Spending (or demand) = Jobs. Not only does this automatically reduce the deficit through increased tax receipts but also reduces spending on social security programmes.

    The UK govt. is the sole issuer of £s Sterling, a fiat currency, and can invest at will into the real economy, as long as that investment does not exceed the potential productive capacity of the population. Tax is never the limiting factor in gov’t spending (as indicated by the funds readily available for military action).

    Investment in the green economy would ‘pay’ for itself (whatever that ‘pay’ means to a country that is not in the EZ or on the gold standard).

    However, I’m sure that you are correct that the current LP leadership would find such a programme very difficult. Given currently embedded assumptions of the media and in the population, they would fear for their electability. IMO they underestimate the electorate but what do I know? :)

  46. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    Despite the high poll ratings the SNP could lose their majority in parliament presumably to the Greens on the list, however despite the SNP taking every mainland seat north of fife in 2011 they still managed to pack on a few list MSP’S in the Highlands and NE due to the sheer numbers voting for them.

    As you point Labour could lose all of their FPTP seats. They won 15 in 2011 with a combined majority of 22,000 so even a slight increase on the SNP VI on the constituency vote could wipe Labour out on FPTP.

    I’ve looked at Labour’s Scottish website and very little if anything on the Tories. Even EM goes on about the SNP so as I said before, if Labour don’t mention the Tories in Scotland then how do they expect people to vote Labour to keep something out that is not being mentioned?

    The polls will level out I’m sure north and south but I will put my neck on the line and say Scottish Westminster Labour are in for some heavy losses, maybe no where near a wipeout but at least 10 or more seats in Scotland and with the SNP picking up around 6 Lib/Dem seats that would give them 22 seats, twice as big as in the 70’s.

  47. Couper

    “I wonder if this outcome is what the Tories intended all aliong when they had Labour front Better Together.”

    Might be, but Labour didn’t have much of a choice. They needed the campaigning cash that the Tory donors were providing.

  48. The other thing is I wasn’t every bothered about independence before the referedum – even six month before – and I have never voted SNP. But I definitely want independence for Scotland now.

  49. Couper
    Labour have fostered a hatred of the Tories
    Labour let their hatred of the SNP over-ride their good sense
    ———–

    I don’t think this is

  50. the site for these comments.

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