Today we have our three regular Monday polls and all three are showing Labour and the Conservatives within a point of each other:

Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7% (tabs here).

The twice weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. This is the lowest that any poll has shown UKIP for a while, though Populus do tend to give them some of their lowest scores anyway (tabs here).

Finally YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%. The eight point score for the Greens is the highest that YouGov have shown to date, and only the second time they’ve put them ahead of the Liberal Democrats.


271 Responses to “Monday’s Populus, Ashcroft and YouGov polls”

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  1. Left split? Right split?

  2. ATLAG’s 40%

  3. Sorry. No apostrophe and no ‘s’. ATLAG 40%

  4. Tipping point seems to have arrived.

    Can Cons fashion a lead by pushing their own VI up now?

  5. Ukip = LD + G

  6. @Colin

    What tipping point would that be? We’ve been here a while.

  7. Im perplexed, the Greens on 8%! ! I could understand it if they were getting exposure, or green issues were in the headlines. What happens when they get in the debates? Double figures?
    Time to put up more candidates me thinks.

  8. RAF

    I prefer to be as cautious as possible RAF.

    I think it reasonable to say that a small Con lead is as likely as a small Labour lead now.

    In other words we might have passed Howard’s latest rule- ” The lead is always a Labour lead “

  9. @Hoof Hearted

    Media attention might need a by-election in a seat they could possibly win… unlikely this late in the Parliament.

  10. @Colin

    That is true. Labour are no longer in the lead.

  11. Where does this leave the LDS? Bobbing around the middle gaining little support, whilst the extreme right and left gain ground.
    Trying to be all things to all people isn’t working.

    I would really love some regional polling.

  12. Here’s the Record story of the Survation poll –

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-bombshell-ed-milliband-shows-4646014

    SNP 49.51% (I wonder why they didn’t follow the usual practice of rounding. :-) )
    Lab 25.84% : Con 18.05% : LD 6.59%

    “Eighty-three per cent of the Scots who backed independence on September 18 are planning to vote for the SNP in May.”

  13. Polls are looking more consistent with gap now closed between the Tories and Labour.

    They say the only poll that counts is the one on polling day.
    I disagree…

    The only poll that counts is the most recent one.
    CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%

    UKIP still riding high and Con’s taking the lead! That’s wasn’t in the script.

  14. I hope they ask that “VI at GE with named leaders “question again soon.

    Greens presumably receiving more VI from LDs?

  15. The Survation poll was taken just before the SNP Conference, so includes no conference “bounce” (up or down).

  16. Looks like Labour need to “Tack left” and take on The Greens, not ukip, or the Tories, who can’t go much lower. One or two points from the Greens, could be the difference between power or not.

  17. @Oldnat

    How is that different from the SNP being on 5% on YG? A bombshell? I think not. Merely confirmation of what we already know.

  18. Labour still ahead, but only a whisker.

    No signs of Ed Miliband’s relaunch having too much effect, thus far.

  19. @Hoof Hearted

    Yes. I think that has been obvious for some time. Labour’s road to Westminster runs right through recapturing their core.

  20. “No signs of Ed Miliband’s relaunch having too much effect, thus far.”

    ———-

    Maybe things would be still worse without it?…

  21. And then move left might mitigate some of the losses to the SNP, which judging by the poll, won’t leave many MPs for Labour in Scotland.

  22. Sorry – previous figures were from a chart titled “2015 General Election projected vote in Scotland” ???

    Poll numbers are SNP 46% : Labour 24% : Con17% : LDs 6.1%

  23. ” Labour’s backing of a No vote in the independence referendum that seems to have damaged their popularity with Yes voters.”

    Daily Record

    Will a Murphy leadership exacerbate this feeling?

    What a lifeline this Scottish situation could be for DC-UKIP show no signs of fading yet.

  24. OLDNAT

    “SNP 49.51% (I wonder why they didn’t follow the usual practice of rounding. :-) ) Lab 25.84% : Con 18.05% : LD 6.59%

    “The Survation poll was taken just before the SNP Conference, so includes no conference “bounce” (up or down)”
    ____

    Bounces tend to go up around conferences and parties also tend to take a bounce when a new leader is elected.

    I think this poll is the SNP’s nadir taking the above into account.

  25. Carfrew,

    Maybe, but there’s no evidence of that.

    It’s got to the point where Labour would be in trouble if the Tories manage to claw back a significant proportion of their lost voters from UKIP, unless Labour find some way of boosting their own support.

  26. One of the worries that Tories had about a Naw vote was that Labour would retain all those Scottish seats and be able to govern in England on the basis of them.

    Now, though…

  27. I guess it must have been that article in the Guardia*n about how Labour were going to target Green voters that Mr Nameless referred us to!

    Small parties thrive on news coverage. We saw it with UKIP, now we are seeing it with the Greens.

    The old ‘you need to be in the centre’ to win model is faltering all over Europe as others here have been reporting, and it looks like the same is happening here now.

  28. @AC

    I would use one word of caution. Survation tends to exaggerate parties with the most enthusiastic bases. For example, their Ukip UK numbers are higher than other pollsters.

  29. So this poll has the Conservatives at a mighty 0.04% above their You Gov 2014 mean.

    Labour can celebrate polling at 4.74% lower than their own 2014 mean.

    Things sure are tightening at the top (although with figures like that it feels like at the bottom not the top. In the last 17 YG polls we have 4 ties, 3 Con leads and 10 Lab leads.

    Prior to these 17 polls the Conservatives have led on only 3, and those were post conference.

    On the last 5 polls Labour lead 33.2 to 32.6

  30. SNP 49.51%, would have Labour in single digits for seats!

  31. OLDNAT
    Sorry – previous figures were from a chart titled “2015 General Election projected vote in Scotland” ???
    Poll numbers are SNP 46% : Labour 24% : Con17% : LDs 6.1%
    _____

    Even your scaled back Tartan rampage produced the following seats.

    SNP….52

    LAB…5

    TORY…1

    LIB…1

    It’s grim
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ,
    ………………..for Labour.

  32. @ Allan Christie

    ‘The only poll that counts is the most recent one.
    CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
    UKIP still riding high and Con’s taking the lead! That’s wasn’t in the script.’

    I’d much rather be in Labour’s position trying to bite into that Green VI than in the Tory’s trying to bite into UKIP’s! The Green VI is a more recent phenomenon, is less definite and Labour has a reasonable story to tell on Green issues. The UKIP VI is longer term, more entrenched and the Tories’ attempts to regain it by imitation have failed miserably.

  33. I might be missing something here, but the assumption that it’s even stevens seems to miss out the bit where Lab has a 4 point lead in one poll, a 3 pointer in another, and the fact that, aside from a single 35%, Tory scores remain clustered around 30/31.

    As we would expect with close scores, we get some variation, and periodic crossovers, but the weight of evidence surely suggests that Cons are still the weaker of the two at present?

    I’m not convinced that this voting intention pattern is really what people meant when they talked about swingback.

    About 4 months to go until the campaign starts.

  34. Bill P
    !It’s got to the point where Labour would be in trouble if the Tories manage to claw back a significant proportion of their lost voters from UKIP…”
    ______________________________________
    Arrrrgggghhhh! Not you as well! I thought that YOU at least were smarter than that!

    it’s clear (to me at any rate…) from the polling over the past 24 months that more voters have switched from Lab to UKIP than from Con to UKIP. And yet we are still hearing this meme of “If/when the Tories can pull their kippers back”.

    Am I being uniquely dense in thinking that it ought to be far easier for Lab to reel in the red kippers?

  35. @Richard

    The funny thing is Ed has set his stall out on NOT trying to win from the centre. He’s always understood he needs to tack left. It’s the Cooper, Balls et al clique who have held him back.

  36. @Bill P

    Sure, there’s no evidence, that’s why I phrased it as a question. It’s a possibility though, which is why you said “maybe”.

    Yes, Lab might be in trouble if Tories claw some votes back, but then Tories might be in trouble if Labour claw some back. Who claws back what, from who, seems to be rather the order of the day now…,

  37. RAF
    @AC
    I would use one word of caution. Survation tends to exaggerate parties with the most enthusiastic bases. For example, their Ukip UK numbers are higher than other pollsters
    ________

    But this poll is consistent with the leads we are seeing.,

  38. @Hoof Hearted

    Im perplexed, the Greens on 8%! ! I could understand it if they were getting exposure, or green issues were in the headlines. What happens when they get in the debates? Double figures?
    Time to put up more candidates me thinks.

    The Greens have more than the usual ‘Green’ issues going on.

    The biggest boost to Greens of recent times has been Lib Dems switching. Politicised Lib Dems will not need media to publicise the Greens – these folk are politically very engaged and sophisticated and will seek the Greens out.

  39. @Lefty

    “Arrrrgggghhhh! Not you as well! I thought that YOU at least were smarter than that! ”

    ——-

    You might not expect it of me, but I’ve been going on about the impact of UKip on Lab for aaaaaaaaaages now.

  40. @Alec

    Based on the last five polls, I get the approximate odds to be for You Gov:

    Labour lead – 52%
    Tie – 26%
    Conservative lead – 22%

  41. According to that Graun article that got mentioned yesterday, the switchers to Greens, being more affluent, aren’t so bothered about impact on the poor, but instead are still very exercised by the Iraq thing.

  42. The play tonight on the economy is fascinating. As I posted previously, it’s getting crowded at the truffle hunt, but the logic around the governments insistence that the global economy looks shaky is interesting.

    I don’t feel that this is merely expectation management for the autumn statement. We’ve had two recent examples where negative economic assessments from parties has led to their polls ratings falling. Firstly, Darling’s highlighting the deficit and then Osborne’s talking up austerity in the run up to GE2010.

    Given these, it looks to be something of a risk to begin suggesting economic difficulties 18 weeks or so from a GE campaign.

    It probably is therefore more in line with Ed’s line, and this is about getting the excuses in early. If so, this suggests that Tories are not confident that the good economic news will continue and strengthen into the GE campaign, and critically, it might suggest they believe they are going to lose the ability to claim that the deficit is falling.

    There remains no easy come back for Labour on this. Many of the problems are global, but there are still plenty of homegrown mistakes. But the key question is who would have/could in the future make it better – and the answer might not necessarily be Labour.

  43. NEWFORESTRADICAL
    @ Allan Christie
    ‘The only poll that counts is the most recent one.
    CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%
    UKIP still riding high and Con’s taking the lead! That’s wasn’t in the script.’
    ………………
    “I’d much rather be in Labour’s position trying to bite into that Green VI than in the Tory’s trying to bite into UKIP’s! The Green VI is a more recent phenomenon, is less definite and Labour has a reasonable story to tell on Green issues. The UKIP VI is longer term, more entrenched and the Tories’ attempts to regain it by imitation have failed miserably”
    ______

    I’m not seeing it that way. UKIP are riding high, Tories and Labour are neck and neck, the Green vote I presume are ex Lib/Dem hippies and hug-A-tree students with fake dreadlocks.

    If I were to be in a position then it would have to be DC’s. I think he would find it easier to find some extra voters than EM if we take the Scottish factor into account.

    Westminster Scottish Labour are being spit roasted right in front of us and yes…………………it’s painful!!

  44. @CMJ
    “The biggest boost to Greens of recent times has been Lib Dems switching. Politicised Lib Dems will not need media to publicise the Greens”

    That certainly summarises my own position, and I doubt I’m alone.

    @NFR
    “The Green VI is … less definite and Labour has a reasonable story to tell on Green issues.”

    I’d like some evidence that it’s less definite. As to the green issues, these are small change. The LD switchers are disillusioned SDPers looking for a Keynsian agenda.

  45. @MOG

    Of course, there some folk like Allan who are happy to think that Green voters are “…ex Lib/Dem hippies and hug-A-tree students with fake dreadlocks”,.

    Let this continue, as this is the complacency, scorn and stereo-typing(wrongly) that actually feeds the smaller parties.

    If any party thinks a few ‘Green’ sound-bites will attract voters like yourself, they fundamentally misunderstand why some people have whole-heartedly rejected the mainstream.

  46. “The LD switchers are disillusioned SDPers looking for a Keynsian agenda”

    ———

    Which is weird when Labour have demonstrated they are on that page with their response to the banking crash. Gave a stimulus, got us back to growth inside 2 years. Then, as now, they didn’t necessarily trumpet it because of the way the media seize on things…

  47. Alec and Lefty

    You are both right. Opinion polls still show Labour are slightly ahead and that combined with the greater efficiency of their vote, and the boundary advantage, would mean a Labour plurality but not a majority. If a good chunk of the traditional Labour vote in Scotland can be won back by the new Leader there, then a majority government is probable. If polls remain similar or even a bit worse for Labour by the time of a GE I can see a blunt election message in Scotland to the effect that if you want to have a Tory-Libdem gov’t in office again, this time with right wing UKIP and NI underpinning, carry on paying bedroom tax, find Devomax is yesterday’s broken promise and risk Brexit, then by all means vote SNP …

  48. Just imagine the panic if UKIP were polling 46% in E&W!

    Never say never.

  49. HOOF HEARTED
    SNP 49.51%, would have Labour in single digits for seats!
    _____

    OLDNAT posted the wrong figures however even with the SNP on 46% which is the correct polling VI would have Labour on 5.

  50. Carfrew. I was aiming my ire at people on the right who make the UKIP fall=Tory rise assumption.

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