The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here and has topline voting intention figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% – continuing to vary around what appears to be an underlying Labour lead of a point or so.

Once again the poll included a batch of hypothetical questions with different Labour leaders, and again suggested that Alan Johnson would attract more public support than Ed Miliband. The control question asking how people would vote if the leaders remain Cameron, Miliband and Clegg shows a Conservative lead of three points. If the Labour leader was instead Alan Johnson Labour would be 2 points ahead, with Andy Burnham Labour would be one point behind, with Yvette Cooper Labour would be four points behind. Usual caveats apply – respondents don’t know what policies or priorities alternative leaders would set, so questions like this measure only first impression perceptions of leaders, and take no account of what effect a party actually dumping its leader and perhaps having to have a contest would have.

Asking about Miliband himself, his ratings this week have improved since a week ago, albeit from a low base. 27% now think he’s made it clear what he stands for, up from 20%. The percentage who think he is a strong leader is up 2 points… but is still only 9%. The percentage who think he is up to the job of PM is up three points, but is still only 21%. Overall 33% of people think Miliband should remain Labour leader, 43% think he should stand down, but many of these responses are from Labour’s opponents. Among Labour’s own voters 47% think Miliband should stay, 34% think he should be replaced.

Moving on 26% of people think that the rise of UKIP has increased the chance of Miliband & Labour winning the election, 16% that it has increased the chances of the Conservatives winning, 58% say don’t know or that it has done neither. Amongst UKIP’s own voters – the people the Conservatives would be seeking to reach with a “Vote UKIP get Labour” message – only 16% think their rise is helping Labour. 22% of people think that David Cameron has responded well to the rise of UKIP, 57% that he has responded badly. However they are evenly divided about what would have been a good response – 34% think Cameron would be better off adopting more of UKIP’s policies and being more like them, 33% think he would be better off distancing himself more and arguing against their polices.

There remains comparatively little support for any form of UKIP-Conservative pact. Only 18% of people overall would support it, and both UKIP and Conservative supporters are opposed. If the Conservatives lose the Rochester by-election 53% of people think Cameron should retain his job, including an overwhelming 92% of Conservative voters.

363 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 31, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 18, GRN 5”

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    “Well now, there are plenty of economics commentators who think they know better than Osborne. Indeed there are a lot of posters on this board who think they know better than Osborne. But, perhaps they don’t.”


    Well Osbourne promised various wonderful things. Others pointed out what was really likely to happen. Generally, the others won out: Austerity saw a choking off of growth to the detriment of the deficit, as predicted.

    Except in one important regard: Osborne then found a way to enact a significant stimulus to get us back to growth without spending much dosh: Help-to-buy. That caught a few of us out. It’s not the ideal stimulus, has a few issues, but still, it did work, credit where it’s due.


    @”we now risk deflation instead of inflation.”

    Not if you read the last BoE inflation Report.

    The deflationary pressures are external -currency & commodity imports. Internally, inflation is building-though slowly-up to 2% over three years.

  3. @Allan Christie

    “I dont mind if the tv debate was just between DC and EM, the only two people who are running for PM that have a real chance of winning.

    It’s the second rate stuff having to listen to it all again in a regional debate that I see is pointless.

    You keep mentioning ” parochial” can’t you think out of the church yard?”


    Don’t be getting snippy with me now, Allan. And if watching two debates rather than one pains you, don’t watch two debates then.

  4. Help-to-buy as the only fiscal stimulus loaded all the inflationary effects onto housing costs. Coincidentally, the government stopped using inflation measures that included housing costs.

  5. Anthony

    I was on this page

    And pressed refresh to see the latest comments.

    UKPR closed and a new browser window opened asking me to install the intel driver.

    As I had refreshed shortly before that, with no problem and have had no problem since, my guess is that it was something in an ad.

  6. @Colin

    Sorry, I meant to say Europe, which is where the Deflation risk is raising it’s head due to Eurozone Austerity measures. Paradoxically, Inflation has been propped up in the UK because the government kept failing to meet its targets on reducing government spending. If they’d met those austerity promises, we might be in a much worse position.

  7. Allan Christie

    I have just seen the front page of the record. A teenager has given birth in ASDA toilets.

    It’s a Labour paper…

    Well obviously.

  8. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Greens hit a record high under @YouGov of 8% – and Libs back to 5th. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 8%, LDEM 7%


    “Don’t be getting snippy with me now, Allan. And if watching two debates rather than one pains you, don’t watch two debates then”

    LOL I’m not being snippy. Yes well looks like one debate will do me.

  10. New Thread

  11. Anthony

    Here is where I was re-directed to: (added space to prevent someone else accidently clicking – do not click here, you may get a virus)


  12. @Allan Christie

    The Church yard comment was snippy, or at best a bit slow, as the only reason you could try that angle was that you required me to keep reminding you of my point, since you seemed to keep forgetting that I had made it, or indeed that I had paid you the respect of addressing your point in the first place.

    Still, as long as you’re happy now…

  13. Anthony, it is indeed triggered by an advert – see here

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