Tonight we will have new polls due from ComRes in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and YouGov in the Sunday Times. In the meantime though, a quite update on the other polls this week.

Thursday’s YouGov poll had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%; Friday’s poll had figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%. In other words, YouGov’s figures continue to show normal random variation around an underlying average of an Labour lead of one point or so.

Populus’s Friday poll had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. The two point Labour lead is bang in line with Populus’s polls over the last month.

Polls over the last few months have got much tighter, and now seem to be averaging at a Labour lead of around a single point, compared to around six points at the start of the year. The eye catching ICM and MORI polls earlier in the week made some think this was a result of last weekend’s stories around Ed Miliband’s leadership but looking at this week’s polling as a whole that really doesn’t seem to be the case. The polls remain very, very tight… but there isn’t any great change from a week ago.


63 Responses to “Friday’s YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. Carfrew fpt

    Thanks for the links. I’ll catch up with them later.

  2. Another sign of the growing popularity of the Green Party in Scotland is that the convenor of the party has just been elected as rector of Aberdeen University.

    Maggie Chapman beat her opponent by 720 votes in the student vote – 1415 to 695. She describes herself as a socialist and feminist.

    The hard work of Martin Ford in fighting Donald Trump ruining an SSSI with a golf course, may have helped her cause. During this MF joined the Greens, after resigning from the LibDems, and then almost got elected to Holyrood as a Green list MSP.

  3. Com Res

    Lab 34% (0)
    Con 30% (-1)
    UKIP 19% (0)
    Lib Dem 8% (+1)
    Green 3% (-1)

  4. Greens down at three – an effect of Ed’s fightback? Or just another comedy results. Still, probably a few brows being wiped in Brewer’s Green.

  5. OLD NAT.
    I am sad about the Irish defeat by the Northern Picts, but wondering about why the Lib Dems are still on 8%.

    The COM RES poll is quite mysterious.

  6. Roland

    Tories will not reclaim 50% of kippers that left. Not many will be back ever, especially with DC as leader. They either want out of Europe of hate all governing parties. If anything, the Tories will leach further support and MP’s.
    I struggle to see how the Tories can win an OM for decades, unless Labour score sub 28%. The Tories aren’t going to improve in the north,Scotland, or Wales., and face losing to UKIP in the south. Like has been said, where are they going to get an extra 25-30 gains they need for an OM. Can Labour gain an OM either, with loses in Scotland? I doubt it.

  7. Com Res – E&W only

    Con 32% : Lab 36% : UKIP 20% : LD 8% : Green 3%

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Voting_Intention_tables_November_2014.pdf

  8. Chris Lane 1945

    I’m sad about the defeat of the Scots by their Antipodean cousins.

    I wonder if the LD VI in England consists of not only their most loyal supporters, but also those who look with dismay at the big 3 in England.

  9. This is only one poll but perhaps it is worth mentioning that 6 months ago in mid – May the online Comres poll gave Labour the same lead of 4%. !2 months ago in mid -November 2013 Labour’s lead was 6%.

  10. @OldNat

    No offence to the esteemed Prof Curtice, but does anyone consider Comres a pollster of any real value?

  11. New thread

  12. @Pressman

    “Hopefully wuth AW starting a new thread we can talk about the polls and the issues rather than the endless sleep inducing Scottish banter.”

    I have to give praise where praise is due. It may have taken months, and quite possibly hundreds of posts, but you have just written something with which I wholeheartedly agree! Keep up the good work. :-)

    @DrMibbles

    “The Tories need to be up to around 37% to stand a chance of being largest party. Given they are languishing on 31-32% average and have been for a long time, with absolutely no sign of any revivial, it’s silly to conclude they are on course for victory.”

    Your all too occasional posts are ones that often chime with my interpretation of the polls. Ditto again. The recent narrowing that Anthony quite rightly alludes to owes nothing to a Tory revival and is as a result solely of a weakening in the Labour position. Now, I can see why that may cheer those of a Conservative disposition, a little like a football team in the relegation zone gaining succour from the poor form a rival, but it really is nonsense to think that what has gone on recently signifies a strengthening in Tory support. In fact, I detect that they’ve slipped slightly and there is no evidence at all that they’ve been beneficiaries of Labour’s weakening.

    Of course, none of this means that the Tories couldn’t conceivably get 37% in May, or even more, but those of us who comment on the polls can only do so on the evidence presented, and that’s why I continue to contend that the likelihood of such a thing occurring is very slim.

    Some posters, usually highly partisan themselves, seem to think that objectivity is defined as the tendency to say things that they like to hear. Much as it would please Roly Hainesapper for me to say that I think the Tories are on course to get 37% and win next year, I can’t because I don’t think they will. That’s not being biased, that’s interpreting the political situation as I see it. I think I’ve been consistent with this view over a long period of time, observing, like Bill Patrick, how extraordinarily badly both the major parties are doing. I’ve also maintained for some time that UKIP support isn’t a transitory blip and will endure until May. More recently, I’ve tended to the view that both the Tories and Labour will perform anaemically next May, quite probably only mustering about 64% aggregate VI between them. If I’m right in that, then Labour are likely to emerge in a better position than the Tories.

    I hereby apologise profusely for those who may be offended by this interpretation of the polls and the current political situation. Some may agree with me, many won’t, but none of us come on this site, or certainly shouldn’t, to pander and ingratiate.

  13. SHAUN
    “Why would this be unacceptable considering the Tories,Labour and the Lib Dems wanted Scotland to stay so much”
    Thank you for your opinion.
    They may have wanted Scotland to stay, but I did not. Further, it has achieved absolutely sweet Fanny Adams.

    Of course you didn’t want them to stay they don’t vote Conservative!

    The majority of English,Welsh and NI wanted them to remain.So you are in the minority i guess.

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