Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out in today’s Evening Standard with topline figures of CON 32%(+2), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(-2), GRN 7%. The three point Conservative lead is the highest that MORI have shown since 2010 and the highest that any company has shown since January 2012. Full details are here.

As usual it’s the unusual poll that gets the attention, when it should be the trend. The fieldwork for the poll was conducted between Saturday and Monday when the media was full of stories about Labour having a leadership crisis, so naturally enough people have concluded that Labour’s leadership row has damaged them in the polls.

Except the MORI poll wasn’t the only poll conducted at the weekend. ICM also had a poll in the field at the same time, which showed Labour one point ahead (though down three on the previous month). Lord Ashcroft also had a poll conducted at the weekend, which showed a one point Conservative lead, but no change from the previous week. Populus had a poll conducted over the weekend too – it showed Labour holding on to a two point lead. YouGov had a poll conducted Sunday to Monday and another one since then, both showed a one point Labour lead, unchanged from last week.

The fact that this is the largest Conservative lead and the lowest Labour score for years is meaningful in its own way. It’s reflection of a general trend that has shown Labour drop from an average lead of around six points at the start of year, to an average lead of around about one point now. What the six polls we’ve had since the weekend don’t agree on is that last weekend’s row over Miliband’s leadership had any huge impact on this pre-existing trend.


717 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 32, LAB 29, LD 9, UKIP 14, GRN 7”

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  1. ROLANDGATINOIS
    I am beginning to think that Good Queen Bess should have married Philip, had loads of babies and kept the Stuarts in their own glen.

    Wouldn’t that just have meant that the English Civil War would have been brought forward about half a century and, if lost by Parliament, likely made England a province of Spain, putting it in much the same position as Catalonia is now?

  2. @ Probably not, when one looks at the type of people who lived in 17th century England. But who the hell knows.

  3. I think the problem with tartan discussions is that us sassanachs think we’re all experts on the Scottish economy and constitution and somehow the Scot’s should be thankful for our well thought out comments.

    It’s enough to make you puke!!

  4. ALLAN

    So you haven’t noticed the Scots who are experts on the rUK constitution , the failings of “Westminster” , the faults of its political parties , the desirability of English independence , the inferiority of NHS England , the history of Scottish persecution at the hands of the English, the role of SNP in dictating events at Westminster from next May………….and almost anything you wish to name about our governance?

    And you can’t smell the English puke?

    We are knee deep in it down here mate :-)

  5. AC

    “Forget the scissors…bring out the Combine harvester.”

    But you guys post 24/7 on the fact that more or less all the Yes Scottish voters have gravitated to SNP or Scottish Green whilst the pro-Union majority are divided between the remaining 4 Parties in the weeks following a very bitter and highly charged Referendum.

    A lot and maybe most Scottiish voters answering poll Qs at the moment will inevitably be looking back to the Referendum result. Labour’ s problems are inevitable as they were the only major Party whose voters were evenly divided between the Union and Independence. In other words any result would dismay about 50% of their supporters.

    Whether this effect lasts remains to be seen, and to a large extent depends on whether Yes voters with genuinely progressive views decide to cut off their nose to spite their face next May, because I think it would be very difficult for Labour to govern if they have no majority in Scotland, and only a plurality in E, W and S. Labour could not yield an inch to Salmon. Any devo would have to be held back until Yr 3 or later in the Parliament, because otherwise Salmon would grab the goodies on offer and bring the Govt down at a time when he could do well in a further GE. Personally I would not wish Labour to have any agreement with SNP, ever because nationalism is diametrically opposed to Labour’s deepest-held beliefs.

  6. I’m now smiling at those people who thought that referenda and Scottish parliaments would put independence to bed for a generation.

    It’s still wide awake.

  7. @keithp well then it is a very naughty boy then

  8. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Quite right, we should continue to pursue fracking in the UK, we will need it.”

    —————

    And how long will it last? Was reading the other day that in the US, fracking is only a temporary pause… post-2020 things will be tailing off again.

    Of course, Thorium wouldn’t be tailing off for thousands of years. Everything will change once the Chinese complete their accelerated Thorium programmee…

  9. As a simpleton, it occurs to me, that North German/ Danish mongruls like myself, have been the biggest population on this island since Christ walked the earth and probably before that time.
    Therefore based on 62 million versus 3.5 million, we should stop playing games with these people regarding the governance of England.

  10. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I think the problem with tartan discussions is that us sassanachs think we’re all experts on the Scottish economy and constitution and somehow the Scot’s should be thankful for our well thought out comments.

    It’s enough to make you puke!!”

    ———–

    Frankly, given the understanding often on display of the currency union issue, and currently the oil price issue, some of them need a bit of help.

    Have you got an answer for if oil prices remained low on independence, before there’s time to build up a sovereign wealth fund?

  11. KEITHP

    “I’m now smiling at those people who thought that referenda and Scottish parliaments would put independence to bed for a generation.

    It’s still wide awake.”

    ———-

    Well yes, ‘cos the oil hasn’t run out yet…

  12. Interesting message to Scottish Labour voters from Sturgeon.:-

    Vote SNP to keep the evil Tories out-and we will support ( aka dictate to ) what is left of your MPs if you manage to squeek into office.

  13. Can I ask a question about the Scottish Labour leadership contest

    Given that there are 3 candidates

    Is it 1st past the post

    or

    AV ( the lowest scoring candidate drops out and votes are re-allocated to the highest 2)

    or

    Does the lowest candidate drop out and there is a new vote for the remaining 2 candidates.

  14. @Floating Voter

    It’s an electoral college system.

    1/3 of the vote is given to to Labour members in Scotland
    1/3 of the vote is given to affiliated trade union members
    (this used to be a “block vote” by the union, but I believe they now vote individually)
    1/3 of the vote is given to Labour elected representatives in Scotland — MSPs, MPs and MEPs

    Each of these thirds is allocated proportionally to candidates depending on how that constituency votes.

    I believe this is the last election on the old system, after which it’ll be one member one vote. (Whether affiliated trade union members will be regarded as Labour members for those purposes, I don’t recall)

  15. @Floating Voter

    p.s. within those rules, it’s first past the post

  16. New thread

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