ICM November Poll

The headline voting intention figures for ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian, with changes from last month’s poll, are CON 37% (-2), LAB 32% (+3), LDEM 22% (nc). Last month’s ICM poll showed a huge 10 point Conservative lead, with a Labour score that seemed anomalously low, this appears to be rather a return to the norm.

Asked how they would vote were Gordon Brown Labour leader, the figures changed to CON 40%, LAB 32%, LDEM 20%. So far all hypothetical polls of this type have shown Labour trailing, and in the vast majority of cases they have performed worse than their current standings if Gordon Brown’s name is mentioned in the question. There is normally a consistent pattern of an increase in the Conservative vote at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, probably the result of some voters disillusioned with Tony Blair returning to Labour from the Liberal Democrats, while at the same time some voters switching from Labour to the Conservatives. It is important to note firstly that it could also be a result of mentioning David Cameron in the question – Populus tested this and found that there was a similar, but smaller, shift in support if you mentioned Cameron and Blair’s names in the question. Secondly, it is a purely hypothetical question – people aren’t very good at predicting how they react to political events in the future and have no way of knowing what Brown will actually do once he becomes Labour leader.

On the subject of the Labour leadership, there was a MORI poll for the Sun yesterday comparinng Brown and John Reid. Overall 36% of people thought Brown would make the better Prime Minister, compared to 22% for Reid. Reid’s support was alrgely amongst non-Labour supporters, amongst Labour supporters Brown was overwhelmingly preferred by 59% to 15% for Reid.


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