Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll today has topline figures of CON 30%(-1), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 10%(+3), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 6%(+1). The changes since last week are within the normal margin of error and the overall picture is inline with the broader picture of the Conservatives and Labour having extremely similar levels of support. Populus’s twice-weekly poll meanwhile had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13% – Labour and the Conservatives again very close, but both higher than in Ashcroft’s polling.

The Ashcroft poll has, of course, got rather more attention because of the 29% for Labour. This is the first time since June 2010 that any poll has shown them below 30% – the level of support they got in Great Britain at the 2010 general election. This is largely due to house effects, and polls in general are not showing Labour this low. Ashcroft’s polls tend to show the highest level of support for those parties outside the traditional big three, on average around 30% over the last few months, compared to 27% for MORI, 22% for ICM and 23% for YouGov. The reasons for Ashcroft’s higher “other” scores are unclear, but the knock on effect is lower support for Con and Lab. Populus on the other hand tend to show some of the lowest levels of support for parties outside the traditional big three, probably due to them weighting by current party identification. Populus’s average over the last few months is 21% – hence the contrast between the two polls today: different absolute levels of Con and Lab support, but a similar sort of position relatively to each other.


513 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. BRAMLEY

    “Probably in the same piece as the ‘racists’ you mentioned upthread”
    _____

    That was me calling the thugs racists and not anyone else!! So I’m still looking to see where Salmond complained?

  2. @Howard

    I meant the releases before today’s… In general there’s been half a point differential between the two

  3. Bramley

    Problem for East Sussex CC is that one of their employees sent out a photo of the Waterloo Society one in a tweet.

    Hence why they rapidly tried damage limitation by saying it was nothing to do with them.

    I don’t imagine most people here had ever heard of the Lewes Bonfire Societies, so the initial responses were predictably angry.

    Then research done & tweeted, so we could see that these people are generally nasty to everyone, so “outrage” shifted to the proposed incineration of Nessie, and general urine-extraction of Lewes.

    More seriously, the dominant picture of Lewes on my timeline now is of people in ridiculous costumes marching under “No Popery” banners and carrying fiery crosses.

    It’s even worse than Airdrie!

  4. AC

    This conversation is heading nowhere so it’s probabl best to leave it before Anthony gets his scissors out.

  5. @ Allan, Oldnat and the Scottish population

    I’m afraid that you are very much misunderstanding Bonfire celebrations in Lewes. Over the years, I’ve seen everything from Idi Amin to Charles and Diana on an exploding horse. The tableaus are topical rather than satirical or political … although they try! I have little doubt that the makers had no understanding of Scottish politics, and not enough knowledge to be making an attack. It was Waterloo bonfire society for goodness sake not Cliffe!

    Really, it is a carnival. Although in the past, it was deadly serious and radical, nowadays it’s just a party. Alex Salmond and ESCC are in danger of having over-reacted and not in a good way.

  6. @candy [email protected]

    Salmond has not complained. He humorously said that it was outrageous that Nessie was going to be burned after all what had she ever done to East Sussex.

    Political satire is a wonderful thing. I’m not clear about the connection between that and burning effigies whether they are of politicians, popes or anybody else.

  7. Gosh with all these racists about I really fear for the safety of any Scots living in Sussex.

  8. New thread

  9. ON

    The Lewes bonfire celebrations are huge, have been going for many many years & people go there from miles & miles around.

    The Council cannot be held responsible for Twitter users jumping to conclusions & demonstrating the ‘everybody is against us’ attitude as was so prevalent in the referendum campaign.

    However, as my previous comment says, this conversation is heading nowhere & will likely lead to Anthony getting his scissors out so please, carry on if you must but I won’t be debating the topic any further.

  10. SYZYGY

    “Really, it is a carnival. Although in the past, it was deadly serious and radical, nowadays it’s just a party. Alex Salmond and ESCC are in danger of having over-reacted and not in a good way”
    _____

    Why are people saying AS this and that? He hasn’t complained and laughed it off.

    I’m saying that I personally dislike the burning of people effigies and flags but if anything I hope it bolsters his party further in the polls and he gets the last laugh.

  11. AllanC

    What “thugs”?
    I think you should spend less time on Twitter.

  12. I don’t have a twitter account. I watched it on the North British Broadcasting channel

  13. The current political situation again reminds us of how fortunate Cameron and Miliband are to have each other as antagonists. Miliband’s recent woes, some self-inflicted (Conference speech etc), others media orchestrated (photo pratfalls, T shirts etc), have allowed Cameron and his party to revel in his difficulties, appearing absurdly chipper in otherwise calamitous political circumstances for them. The latest Survaton poll, in terms of their VI vis-a-vis UKIP, is quite extraordinarily bad for a governing party seeking re-election in six months time, but succour is available in Labour’s own anaemic polling. Cameron is getting wriggle room primarily because, maybe complacently, a lot of Tories think Labour’s problems are as bad or even worse than their own. It’s an obvious thing to say, I know, but if Miliband and Labour were rising in the polls and not falling/stagnating, then Cameron would be facing internal strife within his party. That said, two high level defections and a by-election defeat by an alternative right wing party, is strife of sorts anyway, I suppose! :-)

    Turning to Miliband and Labour, their small but persistent lead over a chronically weak Tory Party is allowing him/them to escape the furore that would normally accompany such poor polling at this stage in the electoral cycle. Like Cameron, Miliband is getting away with it a bit and obtaining some breathing space to re-energise his leadership. Had he been up against an even half-decent Government looking on course for re-election, he’d have probably faced a leadership challenge by now.

    FTPT allows the two of them to punch above their electoral weight so whichever one of them first wriggles free of this mutual mortal embrace come next May will, in all likelihood, become Prime Minister. Reading the runes (polls, constituency boundaries, election battlegrounds, marginals etc), it’s still Miliband’s to lose. That’s my call and it’s why Lefty L is absolutely right about holding nerves etc.

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