The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll today has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%, continuing YouGov’s recent trend of showing a wafer thin Labour lead (tabs are here.)

For the first time in YouGov’s polling Ed Miliband’s net ratings on if he is doing a good or bad job have sunk below Nick Clegg’s. 18% now think Ed Miliband is doing well as Labour leader, 73% badly – a net figure of minus 55. Nick Clegg’s figures are 18% well, 72% badly, a net figure of minus 54.

In a referendum on EU membership 37% of people say they would vote to stay in, 43% would vote to leave. For most of this year YouGov have been showing a small lead for staying in, so this is slightly unusual, especially since another YouGov poll mid-week also showed more people wanting to leave. It could possibly be the impact of the £1.7bn story in the news. On that subject, 11% of people think David Cameron should pay the extra money, 24% say he should try to persuade the rest of the EU to drop the demand, but should ultimately pay up if he cannot. 52% think he should just refuse flat out to pay. However while people would like Cameron to take a stand, most don’t actually expect it to work – 61% expect Britain to end up paying either the full £1.7bn (31%) or slightly less than it (30%). Only 22% expect Britain to get a substantial reduction (17%) or get away without paying (5%).


454 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 31, LAB 32, LD 7, UKIP 18”

1 6 7 8 9 10
  1. AC – yet again the Greens are ignored!

  2. Result Ashcroft National Poll, 31 Oct-2 Nov: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%.

  3. So Lab wins! (or loses)

  4. DAVID

    @”an England region”

    Its a country-and it isn’t “artificial”.

  5. Changed days.

    Ashcroft lists VI shares for 5 parties – and there are still 9% left over for “Others”,

  6. SNP have most of the 9% – 5% SNP

  7. WES

    “AC – yet again the Greens are ignored!”
    ______

    Did I miss them out? Poor wee things.

  8. How come every time I visit here, there’s a PPI advert with a picture of a frit-looking Alex Salmond in it?

  9. OLDNAT

    “Result Ashcroft National Poll, 31 Oct-2 Nov: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%”
    __________

    I put the new low VI for Labour down to the Xenophobia in the SNP.

    NICKP will back me up on this…

  10. LEFTYLAMPTON

    “How come every time I visit here, there’s a PPI advert with a picture of a frit-looking Alex Salmond in it?”
    _______

    Don’t blame Alex Salmond for Labour’s poor showing. It appears the Lib/Dems are on the march too!!

  11. Allan Christie

    Xenophobia? I think not.

    My kid’s generation – who seem to be flocking to the SNP – loved “Xena the Warrior Princess”

  12. I presume Lord Ashcroft’s polling has got Conservatives ahead on the basis of reallocation of don’t knows for Table 4 as Labour lead in Tables 2 and 3 on the basis of actual VI expressed.

  13. Gazprom

    Headline figures exclude those not likely to vote.

  14. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie
    Xenophobia? I think not.

    “My kid’s generation – who seem to be flocking to the SNP – loved “Xena the Warrior Princess”
    __________

    I must admit she has the X factor.

  15. usual odd result from Ashcroft. Why would LD suddenly be ten for example??

  16. “Thinking about the British economy as a whole, and what may happen after the next election in
    May 2015, do you think you and your family would be better off if we were to have five years of Labour government, or five years of Conservative government, or would it make no difference?”

    Better off under the Conservatives 23% ( +1)
    Better off under Labour 16% ( -3)
    No difference 57% (-1)

    Does the Cost of Living Crisis policy need tweeking ?

  17. …or tweaking even.

  18. I know the volatility of sub samples but excluding DK the SNP VI jumps from 42% to 56% and Labour 13% to 15%.

    It’s just one part of the jigsaw Labour have to grapple with but a very important one because even if the SNP poll 5% more than Labour then seats start to tumble.

  19. For those who do not want a Labour Government in 2015 the current round of polls are very encouraging. There have been small Tory leads on a couple of occasions, a Labour leader who has sunk to a new low in popularity and yesterdays poll showing the Cons trusted more than Labour on the economy (by a mile), taxation, education, welfare benefits and immigration. Labour are only ahead on the NHS and even there the lead has shrunk.

    If the Cons can hold their nerve following the Rochester bye-election, whatever the result then things look set fair for them in 2015.

  20. One bit of Ashcroft’s tables that I always find worth looking at is the percentage of party VI who say they might end up voting differently.

    Anthony has said previously that YG records show that even those who say definitely they will vote X, often change their minds, so this gives us a measure of current volatility.

    For the big 5 parties in GB, the % saying they might vote differently are

    LD 50% : Lab 43% : UKIP 43% : Con : 41% : SNP 25%.

  21. Colin

    That most people respond that they would be no better off either way with a Con or Lab Government is something I’ve highlighted in previous polls.

    No wonder that current VI is so volatile.

  22. Labour now on 29% with Ashcroft, lower than they polled at the 2010 general election.

  23. OLDNAT

    Well Table 3 excludes DK/ Refusers and has Labour at 30% and Conservative at 29%.

  24. So

    Labour on about 30% plus losing a load of MPs to SNP = disaster

    Tories on about 30% plus losing a load of MPs to UKIP = set for victory

    Okay…

  25. The Tories are doing about as badly as I’d expect.

    However, could anyone anticipate that polls would suggest that Labour has been LOSING ground since 2010, against an unpopular government? There may be a fundamental problem in the Labour party, just as there was in the 1980s and for the Tories from 1992-2005, when a dominant voting coalition breaks down.

    Labour are stuck: turn left and risk losing voters to UKIP (on non-economic issues e.g. immigration, the EU and drugs) and the Cons/Lib Dems (on economic issues). Turn right and risk losing voters to the SNP and Greens.

    I do think that they could be doing better though. Miliband is never going to appeal to socially conservative WWC voters, but he should at least be hanging onto the Red Dems. Labour needed an agenda that inspired those who had abandoned them over Iraq, civil liberties, tuition fees etc. They haven’t found it yet.

  26. Gazprom

    But Table 3 is also based on Q1 – likelihood to vote.

    That’s why it’s different from Table 2, which includes all respondents.

  27. Gazprom & OldNat

    There is something odd about the Ashcroft tables – there is no disaggregated table showing a Conservative lead. As Gazprom says the most refined table shows Lab 30 Con 29. Explanation ?

  28. @COLIN

    “…or tweaking even.”

    -‘———–

    at least you didn’t say “twerking”…

  29. Gazprom

    I’ve never been sure what “THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON’T KNOW/REFUSERS” actually means.

    I’ve assumed it means that they haven’t reallocated those folk according to previous vote – but I’m unclear on that.

  30. labour is in meltdown…get the popcorn out! this is effing hilarious!

  31. I think the Rochester result will have precisely zero effect on VI, it has been factored in for UKIP for ages, and as for the Tories melting down, thus joining Ed and his not so merry men, it is a protest vote against immigration, not some sort of Damascene moment. When we finally get to May, and votes then matter, the two main parties will recover somewhat, even Ed M and his sweatshop produced, ( feminism in action ) Hampstead, yummy mummy ‘ T ‘ shirt will have been forgotten, I don’t know whether the 2p feminist beggar, or the forgotten priorities, speech will be , though. :-)

  32. It’s looking extremely torrid for Labour up in the most northern constituent part of the UK

    Polling shows SNP surge as Labour support plummets
    Mon, 03/11/2014 – 15:32
    The SNP is today highlighting new polling analysis which provides further evidence for a surge in support for the party – and which deals another blow to Labour as their support continues to plummet.

    The total of YouGov’s Scottish samples from the last five days – with a total sample size of 1,134 – shows SNP support surging to 41 per cent, while Labour’s has fallen to 28 per cent. This represents a 21 per cent rise in support for the SNP – while Labour support has plummeted by 14 per cent since 2010.

    This new analysis comes as a new poll by Unite shows that 54 per cent of people who voted Labour in 2010 do not expect to do so again in 2015.

    Tartan tantrums? Tartan storm? Or is it down to Hurricane bawbag?

  33. Looking at all the fine data from all the other tables I can’t see why Table 4 states Con 30% and Labour 29% especially if DK/Refused isn’t reallocated by 2010 weighting.

  34. Welsh Borderer

    Their Table 4 (Published voting intention figures) never does (whether for Ashcroft or others), so Gazprom is probably right. There must be a degree of reallocation going on between Table 3 and Table 4.

  35. The real mili meltdown comes from the scottish position…he was trundling at 33-4 before that.

    []

  36. I still think that a majority Labour outcome is the most likely one. However, I think that the odds of a Tory majority government next year are no longer trivially low. And various minority combinations seem increasingly likely, with much depending on very much unknown factors e.g. how well the SNP do and how many seats the Lib Dems lose to the Tories.

  37. @KEN

    “I don’t understand all this precious, ‘ Ed M, playing cards close to his chest ‘ nonsense. Tony Blair produced his manifesto for 1997, in 1996, pledge cards and all, and we all know the result. So why Ed M is so shy with his pitch I can only imagine, perhaps he is lacking in confidence ?”

    ———–

    Different times. Tories were in meltdown, media on Blair’s side.

    In fact, pre-Levenson, the media were more on Ed’s side, when they were unhappy at Cammers for allowing Levenson etc.

    Which made life a lot easier for Ed getting his message across.

    Post-Levenson, since Ed. came out in favour of regulating the press more, he’s had a very different experience…

  38. ON
    “That most people respond that they would be no better off either way with a Con or Lab Government is something I’ve highlighted in previous polls.”

    Fascinating programme on R4 this morning, with Martin Wolf of the FT alluding to this point.

    He noted that the people who has run the economy for the past 30 years had no idea how it worked. (Not a dig at politicians – no-one knows how it works.) And then, after the crash, another line was trotted out that if we just run the nation’s finances like household finances, everything would work out ok. But this was equally (perhaps more) ignorant of how economics works.

    Wolf was suggesting that the public is implicitly catching on to the idea that no-one in politics knows what to do. And that this is a root cause in the public disillusion with politicians throughout the western world.

    None of which means that the snake oil salesmen have the answers. But by tapping into the public mistrust of mainstream politics, they are mining a rich seam.

    Worrying times, with plenty of echoes of the 1930s, both economically and politically.

  39. I should have said pre-and-DURING Levenson, media unhappy with Cameron etc…

  40. Gazprom/Welsh Borderer

    Going back to the actual numbers and not rounded %, the Con % in Table 3 is 29.26%, while Lab is 29.65% – a massive difference of 0.39%!!

    Whateve reallocation is going on, it needn’t be very much.

  41. Labour were ahead before weighting on that poll.

  42. Bizzare poll. Two main parties down to 59%, others(inc Greens) on 15%. Neither looks likely, and they contradict all other polls.
    Is his poll biased after all?

  43. Here’s the programme by the way.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04n304k

    Well worth a listen if you can stomach Anne McElvoy as anchor.

  44. GAZPROM
    Looking at all the fine data from all the other tables I can’t see why Table 4 states Con 30% and Labour 29% especially if DK/Refused isn’t reallocated by 2010 weighting.
    ________

    You’re sweating and panting over a fraction of a difference. Put your health before the polls man,

  45. @Allan Christie

    The calculation of seats falling to the SNP is complex and involves two separate factors which need to be borne in mind:

    1. Geographical spread: we cannot be sure that SNP VIs are equally spread around Scotland; on the other hand, unless there is some increase in SNP VIs everywhere then some places are going to be around 75%!

    2. LD seats start falling before Labour seats, and it is important to remember that Tory VIs need to be considered when talking about Deeside and the Borders (and possibly Argyll – even possibly Dumfries and Galloway).

    What many folk in the south fail to understand, and this goes also for some Scots, I think, is that the question ‘Who won (or lost) the Referendum?’ is not answered by naming any political party or group of parties. The Yes and No campaigns were ‘movements’ – especially so of Yes, but not exclusively so.

    Scotland voted NO, but NO to what? No to ‘complete independence now!’
    It most certainly voted ‘No’ also to ‘No Change’ and it also IMO voted ‘No’ to the political establishment, something the establishment is only now beginning to realise. By this I mean that the Labour Party thought it had won, whereas in fact the voters now appear to be saying ‘YOU didn’t win – WE did!’

    Why? Because the sight of the three Westminster ‘leaders’ hurrying north to offer the world showed the Scots that they are masters in their own home and that the politicians are not.

    The other thing to say is that, whilst the SNP have moved on quickly and are now examining (and questioning) what was promised and what was said by the No campaign, and testing it out in the new situation, until last week many in other parties had not moved on at all and were still basking in their supposed ‘victory’. Johann Lamont put a stop to that.

    Having said all that, we won’t know what the real situation is until after the elections to leadership and deputy leadership positions have taken place and the new teams start to get to work.

    Unless someone else has more intelligent thoughts on what is going on up here…..?

  46. Lefty

    Thanks. Must try and catch that programme.

  47. Oldnat is correct – DK/Refuses are reallocated according to how they voted at the previous election in a similar, but not identical, way to ICM’s polls.

  48. Earlier this year we got a regular Labour VI of 40%, the Tories bouncing around 30ish, only a person viewing through red-tinted specs would think that Ed M is a leader in anything but name. Over the cliff with Ed. :-)

  49. @LEFTYLAMPTON

    It was certainly a relief to hear the breath of fresh thinking on R4 this morning … Martin Wolf said that the last 30y had been an attempt to return to the economics of the 19th century (when we had a gold standard). I believe I even heard Lord Keynes mentioned once or twice.

    All four speakers agreed that the comparison of UK government spending to that of a household was the biggest of the misleading myths.

1 6 7 8 9 10