The Kent Messenger are now reporting the voting intention figures from the Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood poll. Topline figures with changes from the previous Survation Rochester poll right after Mark Reckless’s defection are CON 33%(+2), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 1%(-1), UKIP 48%(+8), GRN 2%.

As with the ComRes poll a week ago it shows UKIP with a solid lead. While there will always be some underlying churn, the obvious implication of the changes since the start of October is that the Labour vote has been significantly squeezed, and is breaking heavily in UKIP’s favour.


376 Responses to “Survation poll in Rochester has UKIP lead growing to 15 points”

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  1. @Oldant
    Incredible , coming from you. Kettle and teapot

  2. Ozwald

    Somehow, I don’t think you have any sense of irony. :-)

  3. I think that it is getting to the stage where the ‘Ed is awkward’ thing becomes stale & a bit silly.

    If physical style is so important, perhaps Darcey Bussell should be UK Prime Minister because she’s grace personified; likewise Michael Clark for First Minister. And it’s surely amazing that Fred Astaire & Ginger Rogers were never President & Vice President of the US.

  4. @Oldnat

    I do not think it is unreasonable to call the treatment that Ed M gets from some sections of the press as hysterical hatred.

    They play the man and not the ball. I accept criticising policy etc is fair game, but the unpleasant headlines Ed’s deceased father received were a fine example of the dirty war.

    Of course, it works against Cameron, Clegg and Farage too, but not to the same extent.

    Not doubt @Pressman would be proud.

    This is why I really detest party politics. It doesn’t have to be like this, and party activists and representatives could and should reject this stuff, yet too commonly it is magnified and encouraged.

    It’s a wonder 65% of people actually bother to vote.

  5. Amber

    Youngster like you won’t remember the days of the Nixon Kennedy debate on US TV/Radio.

    Radio listeners judged that Nixon had won. TV viewers gave the victory to Kennedy.

    In that context, “Astaire & Rogers” did become President!

    It’s terribly unfair, I know, but Atlee would never have even become leader of the Labour Party in the modern age.

    There’s little point in complaining (as others, not you were doing) about the fact that Ed doesn’t come over well in the contexts that voters see him.

    There’s been a fair amount of research into how people make choices as to who they “like” (vote for), and a lot of it is based on genetically programmed factors like facial symmetry, physical co-ordination etc.

    If your leader isn’t strong on those characteristics (and many aren’t) they need to find a compensatory appeal.

    Exhibiting power, dominant intellect etc can sometimes be compensatory factors.

    The test, of course, is in public perception – and opinion polls seem to be very clear on that.

  6. Catmanjeff

    “They play the man and not the ball”.

    Of course they do! It’s perfectly normal.

    The Unionist press did exactly the same with Salmond. Macmillan was viciously lampooned. Spitting Image was hardly kind to Thatcher, Owen or Steel.

    I find the outrage from some SNP supporters when anyone criticises or lampoons their heros, totally ludicrous.

    I see no reason to see Labour partisans complaining about the treatment of their leader in any different way.

  7. David Cameron getting changed on the beach, pointing at fish & causing a security scare by bumping into a protestor (or something) – it’s not just Ed who takes an awkward pill every now & again.

  8. And that was by way of saying the media do it to all politicians, not just Ed.

  9. Amber

    Exactly right – and the Tories aren’t exactly setting the electoral heather on light either.

    One factor that i should have mentioned earlier that can compensate for all kinds of physical difficulties is demonstrating empathy.

    Like sincerity, once you learn to fake that you have it made.

  10. OldNat – “There’s been a fair amount of research into how people make choices as to who they “like” (vote for), and a lot of it is based on genetically programmed factors like facial symmetry, physical co-ordination etc.”

    That should basically rule out Jim Murphy right there! He looks like Death personified. Even when he’s saying interesting things, one can’t help be distracted by his gloomy visage.

  11. Candy

    Might be attractive to a Death cult though! :-)

    Seriously, Murphy does exude confidence, power, assertiveness etc – all of which are positives.

    While I don’t like his politics the fact that he happened to be passing the Clutha Pub when the helicopter crashed through the roof and promptly went in to help, does demonstrate a level of simple humanity that we don’t necessarily believe politicians have.

  12. First (and last) tuppenceworth from me tonight…

    Never, ever, believe a photo.

    I have Murdochvision (unfortunately I have to pay my 30 pieces to see any sport), and my wife is routinely putting it on hold (for trips to kitchen, loo, etc, or whenever I wander in and interrupt her soaps). And the one single feature of nearly every single frozen frame is…

    The people look gormless!!!!

    The brain only knows how to process moving images of people, not stills (which is why so few of us are photogenic). Any photo of a politician, or anyone else, is therefore either (a) very carefully posed, and probably retaken multiple times, or (b) appaling.

    As our colonial cousins would say: “go figure”.

  13. @ OldNat

    Re: EM

    The reason why I said what I did earlier, is that I have noticed a tendency amongst some Nats to personify in EM everything they oppose about what they see as Westminster’s adverse influence on Scotland. It’s like everything negative that happens in and/or affecting Scotland is due to the personal failings of EM. He’s like some Keyser Soze figure.

    Some people on here know I have always supported what is now called DevoMax for Scotland, which means that as at this moment there is little difference between my view and that of the majority of Scots, including the SNP. However, this does not negate what I have said above.

  14. Catmanjeff – “I do not think it is unreasonable to call the treatment that Ed M gets from some sections of the press as hysterical hatred.”

    True – but what is undermining him at the moment is that instead of being stoic, he’s allowing the press to get under his skin.

    It’s not hard to work out what happened with the tuppence-for-a-beggar incident. He’s walking along on his way to give a speech, conscious that there are cameras following him and worried about making mistakes. In his peripheral vision he spots a beggar. Worried that the cameramen would think he was callous he goes back to awkwardly give her money, but probably doesn’t even realize all he has in his pocket is coppers (he’s trying really hard not to look at his own hand as he hands the coin over). He’s probably now at home banging his head against the wall at his own stupidity.

    But that “stupidity” came about because the press are getting under his skin and he’s lost confidence. That’s down to him and no-one else. People want their leaders to be cool under extreme pressure and he’s not really demonstrating that.

    If Blair in opposition had noticed a beggar in his peripheral vision, he would have stopped to chat and then made a big deal about how the govt had got homelessness out of control. If he hadn’t noticed her, it’s likely the press wouldn’t have noticed either because their eyes would have been on him. If they brought up “callousness” after going through the footage later (as they often tried to do to catch him out from 2005 onwards), he would have simply retorted that his policy was not to enable beggars with a few coins but to create conditions where begging was not needed at all. (I have a vague memory of Blair saying in his 2001 election address that he’d reduced homelessness drastically from what it was under the previous administration).

    The difference between the two approaches is Confidence. Ed Miliband allowed himself to get spooked and it’s not an attractive look. He can’t control what the press say, but he can control how he reacts.

  15. MOG

    I wouldn’t disagree with anything in your post (except your choice of Murdochvision).

    Two of the cleverest politicians that I’ve seen – Annabel Goldie and Alex Salmond – were hardly photogenic stars, but both carefully staged photos of themselves looking daft. Such self-mockery goes a long way to overcoming the inevitable photos of them looking accidentally daft.

    On the other hand, you have the moving image of the Kinnocks being unable to walk along a beach without getting caught by a wave and falling over.

    However, probably the most bizarre was the one (staged by Thatcher’s advisers, I believe) of her standing alone in an in industrial wasteland, giving out the message “all this was my doing” – so staged and appalling in one shot.

  16. RAF

    No doubt there are some “Nats” who think that way, although there are few of us on here, so I presume you are seeing that elsewhere.

    Equally there are idiots of every political persuasion who demonise an opponent politician and venerate their own.

    Can I just remind you of what you said?

    “The problem is that some Nats are so blinded in their hatred of Labour (some of it newly acquired) that they have at least a few times a day to stone the proverbial devil. It’s bizarre.”

    Some kind of evidential basis for that statement would seem to be a reasonable request.

    That you support Devo Max is no more relevant than that I would like to see Sarah Boyack as LiS leader, partly because she is less tribal and more pragmatic than some other contenders, thus likely to be a better opposition leader or FM.

  17. Raf – “The reason why I said what I did earlier, is that I have noticed a tendency amongst some Nats to personify in EM everything they oppose about what they see as Westminster’s adverse influence on Scotland.”

    Agree with this.

    In the huge Guardian threads about the Scottish polls, you got Nats repeatedly asserting that “London Labour” is the reason for the Yes side losing. And I think “London Labour” is euphemism for “English”. Never mind that the English didn’t have a vote and beyond a mild attempt by Eddie Izzard, plus a couple of speeches by Cameron and Miliband at the end, they didn’t interfere in the referendum. It was a conversation between Scots.

    But if all your life you’ve been blaming England for all your woes, it must be a mind-f*** to comprehend that you were defeated by your own fellow Scots. And a sound defeat too – 55-45 is decisive compared to 50.58% – 49.52% in Quebec, or even Obama’s 2008 win of 52.9% – 45.7% when he was regarded as the new Messiah.

    So they’ve constructed an alternative fantasy where it’s all the fault of “London” aka the English who through their sinister superpowers persuaded large swathes of Scots to vote No.

    This extreme tendency to blame “the other” is getting creepy now. The English are like the Jews to the Scots, full of fantastically strange shadowy powers that allows them to control every bad thing that happens to Scotland. And poor Ed Miliband is a Londoner and of Jewish descent. No wonder they are fixating on him. It’s the disease of nationalism.

  18. Candy

    “The English are like the Jews to the Scots”

    A revealing comment. So, in your fevered imagination, Jews are bad people?

    You sound like a nasty little racist with that attitude.

  19. Old Nat – “A revealing comment. So, in your fevered imagination, Jews are bad people?”

    No, it’s YOU who are projecting.

    It should have been obvious what I was saying, but given your refusal to admit what is happening, I’ll expand. The Scots are scapegoating the English the way the post WW1 Germans did the Jews. The conspiracy theories, the belief that shadowy superpowers are at work. It’s all there.

    The Yes side didn’t lose because “London” exerted some sinister, mysterious and magical influence, but because 55% of your fellow countrymen were unconvinced about the economic prospectus of independence.

    And they were right. If Yes had won, the story would be about the eye-catching fall in the oil price and how this would have opened up an abyss in the Scottish finances.

    But No won, so you are all operating from the safe position of knowing England will subsidize you regardless of how exasperated we feel, which allows you to pretend that economic issues had nothing to do with the defeat and you didn’t get defeated by your saner compatriots but instead by “London” and EdM who is particularly foreign to the Scots.

    The first step to recovery is acknowledging your fellow nationalists have a problem. A serious problem. Instead of making spurious attacks on me, acknowledge what is going on and work on teaching your fellow Scots that all racism is wrong, including racism towards the English.

  20. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 31st Oct – Lab 32%, Con 31%, UKIP 18%, LD 7%, Greens 6%, SNP/PCY 5%, Others 1%; APP -26

    The coalition parties total a low 38% of the vote in this poll and the opposition parties 62%. Should be an obvious landslide,

    But of course the opposition parties are split between Lab 32%, UKIP 18%, Greens 6% indicating to me, that voters are deeply unhappy with the governing parties, but not enough voters see any of the opposition parties having solutions

    The SNP have enthused voters, but they are only strong in one region (of course)

    The crossbreaks are absolutely dire for Lab in this one – all their previous strong areas are poor – behind again on 18 to 24 yr voters, only a quarter of Red Dems and poor retention. The only good part is the DK/WV has improved

    The Cons shouldn’t be jeering though as they have dropped to only 69% retention – i have never seen that before- without those Lab and LD switchers Cons would be on 25% of the vote

    I would have thought that was a crisis brewing for the Cons if it wasn’t for Lab’s problems dominating the media.

    To the question how do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? -21% – that is within the usual range, but it has been near the top of this range for the last month

    Cons + 19% Lab -38%, UKIP -45% (wow!) The differences are amazing

  21. I tend to agree with Candy. I don’t understand why the forces of nationalism and xenophobia are considered (presumably by Old Nat, though he might disagree!) to be attractive and admirable when discussing Scottish independence from UK (they mean England and often say so), but when it UKIP not liking Eurpoe or Le Pen not liking anybody “other” that is ‘bad”.

    UKIP and SNP are both on the rise because of the same rise in nationalism. They preach that everything would be all right if only X was gone, and you can insert the X of your own personal bugbear.

  22. The night shift was as uplifting & informative as ever I see :-)

    A smidgen of tension in certain quarters I suspect-The tell tale ever lengthening babble of Sir Bufton,* .The yapping of the enraged English Labour dogs around the cave of the bearded & gnarled old recluse whose disturbing & strange imprecations drive them mad.

    * Chasglas-thank you :-)

    Fascinating poll this morning which appears to confirm that both main parties who are now in territory perilously close to “no mandate”. This is a phrase I dislike, because it is so often used by the sore loser in a FPTP election. But 30% must represent some sort of de-minimis for credibility.

    SNP/UKIP/The Greens-you only have to look at those 2010 VI numbers to see how traditional voting patterns are fracturing.

  23. I should add to my last post that the “everything would be all right if only X was gone” applies to Lab/Tory politics too, which can channel those same tribal animosities.

  24. OLDNAT

    @” I’ve seen some stuff recently that suggested that a fair amount of the economic upturn seemed to be based on increasing personal credit. Was that right?”

    You might be interested in a BoE study-(in particular Chart1,) which tells a surprisingly different story .

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q304.pdf

  25. OLD NAT

    …I meant to comment that my take on that BoE study is :-

    Prior to the recession ,increased spending on household consumption was funded by increased household debt.
    After the recession spending on household consumption has been curtailed in order to reduce household debt..

  26. Good Morning All.
    Nick P:
    How fares your landslide prediction?
    I agree with your view of Nationalism; same applies to the varieties of nationalism in Northern Ireland.

  27. @Candy re blaming the English

    You can construct a reasonable narrative blaming the Scottish No vote on English born voters. Making up around 10% of the electorate they split 2:1 No:Yes.

    Numerically that’s probably somewhere in the region of 150,000 votes, getting on for half the margin of No victory.

    The fact the only place I’ve seen that argument advanced is in the Daily Mail suggests to me it’s not exactly at the forefront of Scottish political discourse.

    As an English born, politically engaged, mibbee voter I haven’t experienced a single nationalist raising this argument post vote.

    The anger is much more strongly focused on “London” by which people actually mean 3 things in declining order of importance:
    1 Scottish Political representatives there, especially Labour MPs
    2 Other UK politicians
    3 UK Media

    London might be code for all sorts of dislikes but in my experience it isn’t a shorthand for English.

    In my experience the Labour Yes voters tend to be the angriest about “London” perhaps because SNP Yes voters were expecting the full force of the argument while the Labour Yes types felt a bit more betrayed by Labour MPs campaigning hand in hand with groups they disliked.

    This sense of betrayal is I believe the key to the decline in LiS voting intention since the referendum. It will be fascinating to see which, if any, of the candidates for LiS leader has ideas of how to tackle this phenomenon.

  28. ‘Mr Laws called for an independent Education Standards Authority, which would:
    Control curriculum content and prevent short-term political changes
    Provide an objective measure on standards to stop politicians “marking their own homework”‘

    Oh dear. A good idea form the LDs. That means it will never happen.
    The LDs problem here is that they were in the coalition, while Mr Gove was making his “corrosive impact”.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-29851020

  29. NickP,

    The X does always seem to be a physical location too – for UKIP it’s Brussels or Europe, for the SNP London or the English, for the SWP it’s Washington or America.

    It’s as if they imagine bad politics and bad politicians couldn’t exist outside of those places, so wall them off and everything will be brilliant. I guarantee you that in the event of an EU exit or Scottish independence, you would have people in Manchester complaining about the dominance of London (even more) and Highlanders blaming everything on an Edinburgh-based elite.

  30. NORTHUMBRIAN SCOT.
    Good Morning to you.
    The 1975 EEC Referendum damaged Labour as well; with Labour luminaries on both sides, and on both sides they stood with Conservative opponents. It also prepared the way, Roy Jenkins said, for the SDP break from ‘the party’ in 1980-1981.

    CLOUD SPOTTER: I am not a fan of Mr Laws, but his statement on the vagaries of education policy is very important, I think.
    In schools we are waiting for the Education ‘bosses’ to tell us what we are teaching in September 2015; for A Level, and in 2016 for GCSE.

  31. Colin and OldNat

    Another interesting paper Colin.

    Aren’t you both correct

    household were busy paying down their debts until 2012 as evidenced by the chart from the paper, but since the mid of 2012 households have started to increase their personal debt again

    Here is the facts from the money charity

    http://themoneycharity.org.uk/money-statistics/

    The Oct webpage for August 2014 debt statistics

    £162.6bn was the amount of outstanding consumer credit debt at the end of August up from £158.3 in August 2013 – so a pretty hefty rise of £4.3bn in a year. The rise from August 2012 to August 2013 was about £1bn

    Secured credit was

    Outstanding mortgage lending stood at £1.293 trillion at the end of August. This is up from £1.270 trillion at the end of August 2013. a rather large £23 bn in a year.

    As long as households can finance these mortgages with the current low interest rates, i t will be fine and as long as house prices are rising

    the actual numbers are fairly scary

    Per adult in the UK that’s an average debt of £28,813 in August– around 116% of average earnings

    Per household, that’s an average consumer credit debt of £6,155 in August, up from a revised £6,133 in July.

    As long consumers feel confident they will be OK about these debts they will keep consuming. It is when households start to get frightened

    From the paper

    “increased concerns about the ability to make future payments”

    “cuts in spending associated with debt are estimated to have reduced to the level of aggregated consumer spending by 2% or 40% of the total”

    So there must a tipping point where each individual households thinks the level of debt is getting too much

    which would be aggravated by

    rising unemployment
    falling living standards
    rising interest rates
    awareness of poor macro economic news

    When that point comes I don’t know.

    I think the BOE is trying to stop debt rising by tightening credit conditions

  32. @ Crossbat

    I could have accepted your post were Lab still on 35%. But we are now into the guessing game of which of the big two are now capable of winning back lost voters. I don’t see there is any reason to favour Lab over Con in this respect.

    Con have a very big chunk of UKIP voters to aim at and maybe only need 3% out of the 18% to turn it. Lab have a fair chance of getting back any of their UKIP voters who have strayed (I’d go with a picture of a Leopard and UKIP’s 2010 manifesto and pointing out how all the UKIP MP’s are ex Tories- hence why a squeezed vote in Rochester will probably be a good thing for Labour).

    As far as Scotland goes I don’t see the obvious reasons for anyone currently saying SNP to go back to Labour other than a query of what does an ABT do if SNP are in 3rd place in their seat even though the polls tell them SNP would take that seat on UNS.

  33. @Candy et al

    For the avoidance of doubt ‘London Labour’ refers to the 41 Labour MPs elected to WM from Scotland John McTernan gets furious about this but that is what the term means. So Candy’s, extremely insulting to 45% of Scots (or 52% now), is based on an incorrect premise. Making no assumption about Candy’s political views but insulting Yes voters or the SNP will not win those voters to No or to the unionist parties.

  34. FV

    BoE’s Chart 1 appears to go beyond 2012.

  35. @NorthumberlandScot

    As a Labour Yes voter you are exactly correct. The betrayal and anger is directed at the Scottish Labour Party. I know many in the same position as myself from the Labour for Independence group.

    The ‘other’ conversation Labour and Tories have been doing that years. And SNP are in government have been for 7 years, so have no one to blame for their choices in the Scottish context. And once again claiming that 45%+ of Scots are Nazi’s for wanting self determination is ignorant.

  36. Murphy reported to have told EM , he will not work with Alexander. His opponent is backed by a Trades Union, and national party funders UNITE have refused to endorse Murphy.

    This Scottish Labour leadership contest looks like a good old fashioned Left/Right Brown/Blair re-run .

    I wish I understood what it is that Labour have done wrong in the eyes of Scottish Westmister voters. What does the new leader actually have to do to win them back from SNP.?

    And the whole Scottish Leader thing?-when Labour MPs for Scottish constituencies vote at Westminster , isn’t the Westminster Party Whip the instrument of authority?-so in what sense does Lamont’s successor “lead” them ?

    Its all very confusing to me.

    If SNP were , as I seem to remember CB11 calling them, the Sometime Never Party, it wouldn’t matter.

    But things seem to have changed.

  37. SHEVII

    ABT voters in Scotland don’t just have to think about their particular seat but more importantly what will this vast new cohort of SNP MPs do when they get to Westminster? Will they categorically rule out (perhaps make a solemn “vow”) never to side with the Tories under any circumstances?

    Alex Salmond seemed to suggest this in his interview with Marr this morning but beware any politician who promises never to take a particular course of action!

  38. Colin,

    What they seem to have done wrong is not endorsed independence, something they will never and should never do.

    Labour have a real problem with this which as someone on the right you perhaps don’t encounter so much, but any Labour “betrayal” becomes an endlessly repeated meme with the rest of the left which becomes impossible to counter.

    It is very common amongst left-wingers who dislike Labour to believe and repeat that they’re basically still a Blairite party, despite all the ways their policies and rhetoric have moved on from that time.

  39. OLDNAT
    Two of the cleverest politicians that I’ve seen – Annabel Goldie and Alex Salmond – were hardly photogenic stars, but both carefully staged photos of themselves looking daft. Such self-mockery goes a long way to overcoming the inevitable photos of them looking accidentally daft.

    Spot on. With CiN 2014 fast approaching, perhaps EdM and/or Murphy should consider copying Salmond’s cameo on CiN 2008. The latter has a greater resemblance to Fulton than Salmond, so might even consider his own pitch on the I M Jolly theme.

    Anyone who missed Salmond’s CiN 2008 performance can see it at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7730701.stm

  40. If Scottish Labour’s answer is Jim Murphy, are they asking the right question?

  41. @Barbazenzero

    I don’t think that would work for Ed. Salmond and Goldie are charismatic. That’s why they can do that kind of thing and not be damaged by it.

  42. @RogerH
    The trouble with the Kent services is that any time saved on the HS1 line is used up walking past miles of shops to reach the platforms at the far end of St Pancras station.
    ——————
    Worse than that. @Ed said 20 minutes to London. St Pancras is 40 minutes from Medway, 20 minutes gets you to Stratford (not really London). To then get on a tube to London you have to walk the entire length of WestOne Shopping Centre. The fast trains are worthwhile only if you are going to places north of Euston/Kings Cross

  43. Two of the cleverest politicians that I’ve seen – Annabel Goldie and Alex Salmond – were hardly photogenic stars, but both carefully staged photos of themselves looking daft. Such self-mockery goes a long way to overcoming the inevitable photos of them looking accidentally daft.

    Annabel Goldie was both clever & likeable but she won nothing of any political significance for herself or her Party.

  44. @CatmanJeff

    What I don’t understand is what JM believes he can achieve. Labour’s support in Scotland has gradually been eroded due to poor governance, to an extent hubris and more importantly adopting policies perceived as more UK wide than Scotland specific (in particular far less leftwing than where most of Scotland appears to lie).

    JM might be able to pull together an administration that governs better, but I can’t see him passing the hubris test, and also his neo con ultra Blairite approach is so at odds with the people of Scotland (and for that matter many in the rest if the UK) that even his decision to stand is toxic for LiS.

  45. RAF
    I don’t think that would work for Ed. Salmond and Goldie are charismatic. That’s why they can do that kind of thing and not be damaged by it.

    True, but there are many pro-Labour comedians who with a little thought could build him a straight-man cameo to make him look a little more “human”, in a way Cameron would find hard to do.

    OTOH having watched Murphy on Marr and currently listening to him on Pienaar, Murphy would be just right for an I M Jolly cameo.

  46. @ Paul A

    I think the issue is not that the SNP would side with the Tories (political suicide) but whether they would be willing to provide stable government for a minority Lab Administration or want to play politics in that situation.

    “Tough choices” will still be needed in the next parliament and possibly comes down to the simple “tough choice” of cutting services or increasing tax. The voting public hate both of these and there is a high possibility that SNP/LD/UKIP would want to play to the gallery. This is especially true because the LD meltdown this parliament has shown what happens if you get too close to government.

  47. @Ben Foley (November 1st, 2014 at 10:11 pm)

    Same URL, but add a 2. That way you can compare them. :))

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ld-green-uk2.png

    @All

    Charts updated folks. Points of interest:

    – Miliband’s UK leadership ratings drop below Cleggs (RoS and M&W seem to be the cause, but poor rating across the board aren’t helping)

    – crossover between Lib Dems and Greens in M&W and the North (ignore the 6-poll averages today – one poll only, so the UKIP M&W blip, and the Green drops are not realistic)

    – we finish the month, and the monthly averages charts will be more accurate than usual. The SNP finish October on 40.5%, while Labour are on 27.2%. I still find that quite mind-boggling.

  48. @Candy

    “This extreme tendency to blame “the other” is getting creepy now. The English are like the Jews to the Scots, full of fantastically strange shadowy powers that allows them to control every bad thing that happens to Scotland. And poor Ed Miliband is a Londoner and of Jewish descent. No wonder they are fixating on him. It’s the disease of nationalism.”

    Havers!

    Miliband is seen generally seen as Cameron, but with less ability.

    Your (frankly, uninformed and trolling) post doesn’t take into account the fact that many ‘Yes’ Scots are not anti-London, rather anti-Westminster (the elite political entity, rather than the population of residents). There are complaints of London-centric issues, which the media and politicians do nothing to lessen, but it’s not an issue with the residents; rather the management of things.

    The anti-Semitism argument is accepted as being twaddle North of the border. Here’s hoping that sentiment filters through to the rUK.

  49. Well there you have it…an exclusive. According to NICKP the rise of UKIP and the SNP is all down to ex Tories, ex Labour voters and ex everything else finding their inner xenophobic feelings and lashing out at poor ole EM.

    Extraordinary stuff!!

  50. STATGEEK

    A wounded animal is at its most dangerous. Expect more of it over the next couple of months.

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