The Kent Messenger are now reporting the voting intention figures from the Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood poll. Topline figures with changes from the previous Survation Rochester poll right after Mark Reckless’s defection are CON 33%(+2), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 1%(-1), UKIP 48%(+8), GRN 2%.

As with the ComRes poll a week ago it shows UKIP with a solid lead. While there will always be some underlying churn, the obvious implication of the changes since the start of October is that the Labour vote has been significantly squeezed, and is breaking heavily in UKIP’s favour.


376 Responses to “Survation poll in Rochester has UKIP lead growing to 15 points”

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  1. @ Old Nat

    Yes – but it’d still be just a single vote in 1/3rd of the electoral colleges. So it’s hardly likely to influence the outcome. :-)

  2. Can I just remind peeps I was first with tonight’s YG poll at 10:10pm

    If a lollipop was on offer then I reckon it would be mine.

  3. @ ON

    Thanks for the analysis above.

    I guess the problem for a minority Lab govt would be they can only forestall an election for so long. Then I feel they would probably be facing an electoral armageddon.

    What the SNP did between 2007 and 2011 (in terms of being the incumbent govt and actually increasing their position in a subsequent election) is very unusual and I don’t know enough about Scottish politics to do anything more than hazard wild guesses as to why this might have occurred.

  4. I’m sure I saw some posts or other at 10:10 and 10:41, but it was probably some ghost hanging around after Halloween.

  5. GRHinPorts

    I’m not sure it’s anything particularly to do with Scottish politics. Simply a matter of providing competent (if not particularly inspiring) government as a minority administration and calculating that it wouldn’t be in the interests of the opposition to combine to bring you down.

    It’s a situation that forces a government to be consensual rather than forcing their agenda on a country that manifestly didn’t coalesce around you.

    That would be an interesting departure for Westminster, but both Holyrood and the Senedd managed it. In Stormont, the power sharing Executive manages to cope.

    Why does Westminster have to be the only Parliament/Assembly in the UK that can’t manage the electoral consequences sensibly?

  6. CROSSBAT

    ” for now and in the immediate aftermath of the Referendum, the SNP appear to be in the ascendancy and Labour in full retreat. This is a local difficulty that the new leader will need to address after he or she is elected next months because, while it is unlikely that Labour will need all 41 of their Scottish MPs, they will need to retain a good few if they are to have a hope of forming a majority government in Westminster”
    ____

    You’re very optimistic regarding Labour’s chances and not needing all 41 MP’S they hold in Scotland. The local difficulty you mention is not local. It’s an implosion of a large part of London Labour’s Westminster’s MP’S in Scotland.

    Scottish Labour is made up of MSP’s sitting in Holyrood and Labour MP’S in Scotland are standing for election for London Labour.

    I know Labour are trying to dress up the two parties and make them as one but how can you have a leader in Scotland in charge of all the MP’S and MSP’S.

    What does that leader in Scotland say when he votes (hypothetical) to scrap charging at car parks at Scottish hospitals but in England EM wants to retain it when it comes to a vote in Westminster?

    Does the Scottish leader tell his MP’S to vote against, for or not to vote at all?

    Sorry but I can’t see how a one face fits all for Labour north of the border.

  7. To add what I was saying.

    The new Scottish Labour leader could argue against one policy in Scotland but for that same policy in Westminster he could be telling his MP’S to vote for it.

    Two faces for one job…A recipe for complete contradiction!!

  8. # Better still..One face for two jobs

  9. Been away for a while, and come back to see mini mayhem in the polls. Looks bad for Lab in Scotland, not great for them elsewhere, and awful for Cons everywhere. A great time for those outside the political duopoly of the last hundred years or so, perhaps.

    Two points I would want to make;

    On Rochester & Strood, the Lab vote is clearly tumbling, but if I were a Lab supporter this wouldn’t overly trouble me. I posted a week or two back when Lab vote seemed to be holding up that a squeeze was coming, and as with the H&M polls and result, I pondered whether the polls a few weeks out from by elections were a better guide of the actual position than the result itself, given the tendency of by election bandwagons that aren’t repeated at a GE. I suspect that’s what we’re seeing here, and that it isn’t really representative of Lab prospects in southern seats come 2015.

    Second point is about consumer confidence. Not sure if this was commented on, but Thursday saw the production of some pretty shocking poll results from YG/CEBR. October has seen the biggest monthly slump in consumer confidence since 2010, with an across the board deterioration in sentiment on all measures. This appears to mirror the Markit Household Finances survey, which has been slipping for some months now.

    The head of YG reports said –
    ‘These figures make grim reading in the run up to Christmas and unless something dramatic happens in the next month the festive season could be a very tricky one for retailers. The collapse in consumer confidence this month is startling and it has actually got worse as the month has gone on. The fall is so great because confidence has weakened across the board – all eight measures we use to gauge economic optimism fell, indicating just how fragile the recovery is. While the economic figures paint a rosy picture, consumers are not yet feeling the recovery in their wallets.’

    The idea that we are seeing a modest tailing off of growth is beginning to look like it could be a bit optimistic. If these surveys are accurate, consumers are quietly falling off a cliff edge, and usually when that happens, the economy that is tied so tightly to them soon follows. Business confidence in the service sector is going to be the key number to watch now I suspect.

  10. lol

    Crossbat ‘s comments remind me of Private Eye’s Sir Bufton Tufton !

    Out of touch doesn’t cover it

  11. LAB 32%, CON 31%, OTHERS 31+ nationalist parties

    When did that last happen?

  12. Alec

    Thanks for that consumer confidence data. I’ve seen some stuff recently that suggested that a fair amount of the economic upturn seemed to be based on increasing personal credit. Was that right?

    If so, it seems terribly reminiscent of the credit crunch.

  13. @ Dave

    Probably when the SDP were in their pomp.

  14. Apparently there is a “big” Cameron speech in the offing.

    It had originally been intended to be a game-changer before the byelection… now it is reported to have been scheduled to draw a line after probable defeat in R&S.

    The Big Society relaunch was a much heralded “big” speech, as was the endlessly delayed “big” EU referendum speech. I don’t know if the anti-multiculturalism speech qualified as big – probably not.

    Perhaps it is true that immigration is the concern which drives Ukip’s vote. Conservatives certainly highlighted immigration during the 2010 election campaign. Post-election the austerity rhetoric took aim at welfare recipients as well as immigrants (“benefit tourism”).

    Polling probably pointed to the fact that characterising welfare recipients as “scroungers” would pay limited returns. Too many people recieve some kind of benefit/pension and began to feel indirectly tarred by the brush. Consequently, the population at large was given permission to view immigration as the number one problem in this age of austerity and falling living standards. This continues to help Ukip rather than the Conservatives.

    I was saddened to read comments on this site to the effect that “immigrants” who have lived in this country for many decades are now being subjected to fresh abuse. In fact I have a neighbour who married a serviceman after WW2 and is now anxious about going outdoors because she still has an “accent”.

  15. Ed Miliband criticised from every direction after giving homeless woman just 2p in Manchester.

    The Labour leader was spotted giving the woman some change, and has been lambasted for looking ‘awkward’ during the act of charity.

    MP, who makes an esitmated £132,387 a year, was also criticised for only handing over 2 pence while in Manchester yesterday.

    Labour released a statement saying he actually donated a handful of change, although the photos tell a different story.
    __________

    Will this 2p cost him the election?

  16. I thought CB11’s contribution was as interesting and as entertaining as ever. Anyway, he has a lot on his mind, if you look at the footy fixtures for tomorrow.

    Of all people, I have just put a footy post in. :-((

  17. Amber

    Maybe circumstance rather than pomp?

  18. Alas for the elder days.

    Once upon a time, Allan’s posting that Con had dropped 2 points, Green 1 and UKIP gained 3 would have provoked a feeding frenzy.

    Now the response seems to be “Meh”.

  19. Dave,

    Lab /Con currently have polling estimates of only 62 % combined . Given an abstention rate of 35 % , the legitimacy of Westminster ‘s right to govern is under question

  20. OLDNAT

    Alas for the elder days.

    Once upon a time, Allan’s posting that Con had dropped 2 points, Green 1 and UKIP gained 3 would have provoked a feeding frenzy.
    Now the response seems to be “Meh”
    _______

    Anecdotal evidence may point towards the two recent Scottish polls for this strange phenomenon!!

  21. @Allan

    That sort of stuff about Ed is garbage that degrades politics.

    Bringing it to UKPR is like walking into a nice clean house, and getting dog mess on the new white carpets from the filthy street outside.

    It’s better left outside…

  22. Will this 2p cost him the election?

    are you mad?

  23. Dave,
    Lab /Con currently have polling estimates of only 62 % combined . Given an abstention rate of 35 % , the legitimacy of Westminster ‘s right to govern is under question…LOL

    What % confers “legitimacy”…we have an electoral system and the rules are the rules…that’s it. labour ran a minority government in 1924 on 30.7% of the vote… there’s almost nothing the British constitution hasn’t seen.

  24. CATMAJEFF

    It was probably one of PRESSMAN’S foot soldiers dressed up as a beggar.

    Mind PRESSMAN is perusing a scorched earthed campaign against EM.

  25. EdM doesn’t really do “human” though…does he?

  26. # scorched earth

  27. Catmanjeff & James Peel

    This is a site about polling and factors that are likely to affect polling VI.

    Like it or not, the multiple pictures of Ed putting a coin in a Roma? beggar’s cup (with cameramen in every shot) are all over social media.

    Clever politicians simply don’t allow themselves to get caught in that situation.

    Will it cost him the election? No.

    Does it feed into the narrative that is shared by most in the country about him? Yes.

  28. @James Peel

    While there maybe no constitutional barrier to a minority Government, what a placid, compliant electorate accepted in 1924 would not be tolerated in 2015.

    Legitimacy does not have a number, it’s what people will accept. You can’t put a minimum percentage on that.

  29. Interesting article in the Graun with John Harris reporting a meeting with Jon Cruddas.
    Highlights the dilemma discussed here recently for Lab – whether to go for radical/rebuild/vision or for a careful attempt to scrape through.
    Everything we’re seeing in the polls makes me think that they should embrace the visionary approach, though I suspect I’m in a minority on this site.

  30. @Chasglas

    “lol
    Crossbat ‘s comments remind me of Private Eye’s Sir Bufton Tufton !
    Out of touch doesn’t cover it”

    Glad to hear you appreciated my thoughts! :-)

    Of course, people who wish for, and see, only one scenario can be terribly upset when presented with other less appealing possibilities.

    Open minds and all that. Always remember that one man’s “out of touch” is another man’s “Spot on, old boy”!

    Or at least it is on UKIP, it would appear.

  31. Catmanjeff,

    Fortunately, or perhaps unfortunatley, most people in britain do not share your levels of outrage and interest in politics…people will accept the result whatever happens. yes, there’ll be articles in the daily mail and daily express but there won’t be any revolutions or popular revolts or coups…business will carry on as before

  32. Not UKIP, UKPR!!

    A very Freudian typo there!

  33. @CatnanJeff

    The problem is that some Nats are so blinded in their hatred of Labour (some of it newly acquired) that they have at least a few times a day to stone the proverbial devil. It’s bizarre.

    I haven’t the faintest idea what happened with the homeless individual in Manchester. I do know that many people have come to me in London begging for change, and sometimes I have given them what I have, which was once just 10p. Could it be that EM just didn’t have any other change in his pocket?

  34. guymonde,

    I am firmly on the right, but i think mili does best when he’s sincere and bold, energy freezes and stuff like that….i think he would do better if he came up with a leftwing vision with definition and purpose.

    he doesn’t have the communication skills to be a vapid blairite triangulator…he doesn’t sound convincing on that…neither does cameron, so that one of the reasons why both main parties are barely hitting 65% VI.

  35. RAF

    Spot on.

    Probably mad as well, to also agree with james peel.

  36. @RAF

    Exactly.

    I’m not sure such coverage actually changes anything anyway. Those who don’t like him will say it shows how out of touch and useless he is.

    To most people I imagine, they would view the coverage as the press playing silly b*ggers again.

    The attacks on him are getting so silly and ridiculous, it risks being counter-productive and generating sympathy for him.

  37. RAF

    Just have a look at the photographs, if you haven’t seen them.

    None of us can know what was in Ed’s mind when he stepped into that photo shoot.

    What will remain in the public mind is the awkwardness, the lack of eye contact, the single coin.

    Good politicians have an instinctive grasp of how their behaviours will look to voters.

    There is little evidence that voters make decisions on the policy details announced by politicians. There is a lot of evidence that they make judgments on physical and behavioural clues.

  38. @RAF

    A photo-op in Manchester and suddenly it’s about ‘Nats’ and ‘unreasonable hatred’ (pot meet kettle). This is why Labour are killing themselves in Scotland. Scots are generally well disposed to the SNP, they may not vote for them – I have never voted SNP – but I have always been reasonably fond of them – demonising SNP supporters or Yes voters will not win Labour a single vote.

  39. @Oldbat

    The Huffington Post show a couple of frames. The choice of picture posted can therefore be selected for the effect of what you want – take 10 shots of anyone doing anything, and you will certainly get a few with an odd facial expression.

    If anyone is daft enough to vote for/against anyone on that basis, they deserve what daft Government they.

  40. Couper2802

    “I have never voted SNP”

    You have just caused immense confusion in the minds of some of our southern cousins! :-)

    As to RAF – i have no clear idea of which party (if any) s/he supports, so perhaps wise for you not to make assumptions about partisanship from that quarter either.

  41. Make that Oldnat, not Oldbat.

    Oldbat a strange hybrid of Oldnat and Crossbat11.

  42. Catmanjeff

    People have been electing daft governments on precisely that basis for generations!

    That’s why good politicians never allow themselves to be portrayed in such negative ways.

    I’m making no judgments on Ed’s motivations, but with all those photographers around, a clever politician would have squatted down beside her and engaged her in direct conversation. That would have provided good media coverage.

    btw I’m presuming that you simply made a typo in my user name, and weren’t simply being insulting.

  43. Catmanjeff

    Glad of the clarification! :-)

    Otherwise I might have become cross nat.

  44. @Oldnat

    I don’t know who is most insulted – your good self or Crossbat11.

    I’ll let you two sort that out!

  45. @ Guymonde

    ‘Everything we’re seeing in the polls makes me think that they should embrace the visionary approach, though I suspect I’m in a minority on this site.’

    I’m with you though :)

  46. @catmanjeff
    “take 10 shots of anyone doing anything, and you will certainly get a few with an odd facial expression.”
    —————————
    Absolutely. The hatred from some quarters towards EM is becoming hysterical. Your point was proven on Yougov’s own site today. Ed with outstreched arms looking like he was about to strangle the unfortunate lady. Not the first time the site has used pics in this selective way, which is why I am becoming more and more suspicious of Yougov hefty weightings.

  47. Syzygy @ Guymonde

    Soundbites do not a vision make! And for too long we have had politicians on all sides endlessly repeating the slogan of the day.

    Presumably, the advisers to parties believed that was the way to go – but I wonder if there was any actual evidence that it worked.

  48. Ozwald

    “The hatred from some quarters towards EM is becoming hysterical.”

    That’s a pretty hysterical statement in itself!

    Are you new to politics? Have you never seen how every politician is treated in the same way by their opponents, given the opportunity?

  49. @Oldnat
    Your post is pompous and you seem to think you have the right to act as judge and jury over other posts.

  50. Oswald

    If you choose to make an exaggerated partisan statement on a public board, then you can reasonably expect that to be pointed out.

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