The Kent Messenger are now reporting the voting intention figures from the Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood poll. Topline figures with changes from the previous Survation Rochester poll right after Mark Reckless’s defection are CON 33%(+2), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 1%(-1), UKIP 48%(+8), GRN 2%.

As with the ComRes poll a week ago it shows UKIP with a solid lead. While there will always be some underlying churn, the obvious implication of the changes since the start of October is that the Labour vote has been significantly squeezed, and is breaking heavily in UKIP’s favour.


376 Responses to “Survation poll in Rochester has UKIP lead growing to 15 points”

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  1. Regarding the poll showing a small increase for Scottish independence – it is easy to choose the ‘radical’ option when you know it won’t happen.

    Despite being personally in favour of nationalising certain industries, I am unconvinced that the opinion polls which show strong support for this would translate into real votes for it.

  2. @ Amber

    It would certainly be an interesting mix to have Jim Murphy and Katy Clark working together! Fireworks not just on Nov 5th!

    I thought that Katy Clark was standing down from parliament in 2015 but I can’t find any reference to it on google.

  3. cl34

    ” the only real hope Labour have at the moment is the exits of more Tories”

    Chris, your “analyses” are always so simplistic as to be pretty pointless.

    As Arsene Wenger says “life is motion” and I am really surpises by the way you jump on anything that is current headline news and then build an entire projection from that.

    Politics is much more complex and fluid than the latest opinion poll or “drama”.

  4. @ Roger Mexico

    Regarding domestic violence, I think you have accurately described the likely situations where a caution is given.

    Of course, just because you & I can understand it, I’m hoping people ‘get’ that it doesn’t equate to us agreeing with it.

  5. cl45

    Typing in poor light but yer a teacher so may be worried I have marked you down from 45 to 34.

    Come to think of it ………………………………….

  6. Amber

    Just as what politicians and parties say and do influences polling, so polling influences politicians and parties – at least some of the time.

    It is, of course, perfectly correct that parties can and do dismiss polls that they don’t like from time to time and carry on regardless.

    There may, or may not, be consequences flowing from that.

  7. Jimmy Armfield

    “The past is gone now”

    For real pearls of wisdom you really do need a football commentator.

    Not quite as good as Arsene Wenger’s “life is motion” though ‘cos within those three words is an entire philosophy.

  8. @Catmj

    You need to raise any question of “fairness” with AW; it was a rule he brought in sometime ago.I was just asking him to consider reinstating it.

  9. @ Syzygy

    I heard yesterday that Katy was thinking about standing for deputy – I hadn’t heard that she was thinking of standing down.

    I’d have thought she’d have already had her ‘trigger ballot’ at which she’d have declared she was standing again, almost all Scotland’s Labour MPs have.

  10. Incidentally the problems that Labour faces in Scotland are well illustrated by the last two question in the poll (p17-18):

    How well or badly do you think the Scottish Labour Party represents the views and interests of Scotland today?

    Very well 3%

    Fairly well 19% (TOTAL WELL 22%)

    Fairly badly 33%

    Very badly 32% (TOTAL BADLY 65%)

    Don’t know 13%

    How much freedom, if any, do you think the Scottish Labour Party has to pursue policies different to those of the national Labour party?

    A lot of freedom 3%

    A fair amount of freedom 14% (TOTAL FREEDOM 17%)

    Not much freedom 41%

    No freedom at all 25% (TOTAL NO FREEDOM 66%)

    Don’t know 17%

    Even among current Labour voters only 57% think they represent Scotland and only 36% think they have some sort of autonomy. Among those who voted Labour in 2010, the figures drop to 31% and 22%.

  11. @ Old Nat

    It is, of course, perfectly correct that parties can and do dismiss polls that they don’t like from time to time and carry on regardless.
    ————–
    I think there are also dangers from taking polls too seriously; there are consequences of that too.

    Shares in Scottish registered companies & the value of the GBP were shaken by one opinion poll showing that Scotland might vote Yes. I believe that affected the ‘don’t know’ voters.

    The Yes camp also seemed to take seriously polls which showed that 20% – 25% of SNP supporters would back No. The Yes campaign went hard left from that point, trying to make up the shortfall by targeting Labour voters & non-voting C2DEs. Personally, I think that was a mistake by Yes.

    So dismissing polls which one doesn’t like may have consequences but taking them too seriously isn’t a good thing either.

  12. @ Valerie on Scotland

    I half-sympathise with you on Scotland — & one had hoped for a respite after the Ref — but as Amber says there is a lot going on in North British politics which does affect UK polling.

    I note, however, there has been no answer to your earlier post asking whether the SNP would make a pact/coalition with the Tories: a question which is also v. pertinent to UK polling.

  13. @ R & D
    Jimmy Armfield
    “The past is gone now”

    I’m shocked & disappointed that an evergreen of yr vintage would pick on a superb professional player & manager like Jimmy, when there are so many more deserving targets. I have been known to slum it rarely listen to football commentaries: he stands out: informed, concise, non-hysterical.

  14. Fine. I’ll raise the Scottish issue that interests me and I suspect many ex Labour voters who have switched to the SNP.

    The GE may well result in the Tories having the most seats while the SNP has 40+ MPs. Would the SNP consider going into a

  15. a coalition/pact with the Conservatives and what would they demand in return?Answers on a postcard please.

  16. ‘Amber
    “So dismissing polls which one doesn’t like may have consequences but taking them too seriously isn’t a good thing either.”
    ————————
    Wise words. Who decides which questions are asked in a poll? And who decides which questions not to ask?
    I have some ideas but I will keep them to myself for now.

  17. VALERIE

    “Fine. I’ll raise the Scottish issue that interests me and I suspect many ex Labour voters who have switched to the SNP.
    The GE may well result in the Tories having the most seats while the SNP has 40+ MPs. Would the SNP consider going into a coalition/pact with the Conservatives and what would they demand in return?Answers on a postcard please”
    ________

    Put a sock in it, this is not a Saltire thread.

    rooools R roooools ;-)

  18. VALERIE

    Only kidding and it’s an interesting question but the SNP have a very tough policy not to do deals with the Tories although if the Tories win the most seats and run as a minority gov then the SNP (if they have anything like the numbers the polls are suggesting) could ask for concessions in return to abstain on some votes at Westminster but that really would depend on what they were of course.

    But there is no chance the SNP would ever go into coalition with the
    Tories and possibly Labour for that matter?

  19. VALERIE

    Your question is bang on the button for me.

    But I do think it is preceded by questions about the ability of Labour under Murphy to persuade Scottish voters not to decimate Labour in that way.

    And central to that is-presumably-the different degree ( if there is one) of Tax sovereignty on offer from Cons & Lab.

    In this context , I wish I understood what the Smith Commission -which reports at the end of this month-is actually going to report on.

  20. COLIN

    “I wish I understood what the Smith Commission -which reports at the end of this month-is actually going to report on.”
    _____

    I’m confused as well. Cameron during the indy campaign in Aberdeen told voters “If you want to get rid of the bedroom tax then you don’t have to leave the UK we will give Edinburgh powers so they can get rid of the tax”

    I and many other voters took that as Welfare being devolved to Edinburgh after a no vote but I’m not hearing too much about that at the moment but the big test will be…if the Smith Commission agrees to devolve welfare to Edinburgh then will Cameron back that up?

    I do trust Cameron more than Labour to deliver on more devolution but the big test will come when the proposals are published.

  21. @ Roger Mexico & Amber

    From May 2013

    More than 1,000 sex offenders have received police cautions in the east of England rather than face court proceedings, it has emerged.

    The figures, obtained by the BBC via a Freedom of Information request, reveal some of those cautioned admitted rape.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-22335575

  22. amber

    Many Ops are simply invitations to bash someone or some party.

    So “lack of trust” for Labour in Bonny Scotland is, no doubt, an issue but the response goes way beyond rationality.

    The same would be tru of any “loaded”, cureent issue question: viz “Do you think the Tories are divided?” “Do you trust Nick Clegg/”

    The percentages could almost be written in advance and – even worse – they are then reported in a dramatic manner which reinforces the original bias.

    I know it’s unrealistic but PROPER questions, asking – for example –

    “List three reasons why you distrust Jock Labour/Nick Clegg/Think the Tories are divided/think EM is not up to the job etc etc etc”

    and most respondents would only be able to parrot back whatever line was being promulgated at them in the first place by the media.

    It’s a sad, sound-bite syndrome and I recommend my triple alliteration to the house.

  23. @Amber

    The point you miss is the left in Scotland campaigned for Yes – no one had to make a play for them they were in the Yes camp and succeeded winning over Labour voters. Labour never really got the fact that Yes was not about the SNP. Labour have lost the left in Scotland in fact the Labour Party have lost the Labour movement – embodied by groups such as RIC and Common Weal that now back the SNP for Westminster and SNP, Greens and SSP for Holyrood.

    The people protesting outside the Gala dinner would have in the past been Labour activists now the Left in Scotland see Labour not the Tories as the enemy.

    Jim Murphy and John McTernan want to take Labour to the right of the SNP. I believe Murphy is only in the Labour Party because the Tories were so toxic in Scotland he decided Labour offered the best career opportunities, I am beginning to feel about him the way I used to feel about Thatcher. I really hope Sarah wins but Neil Findlay would be OK. Anyone but Murphy because I think Murphy will destroy Labour – Yes they might win but they will no longer be a Labour Party.

  24. Valerie

    Saltaire, Saltire and satire are what we call “different things”.

    Saltaire, for example, is an Art Gallery, quite near to you and very nice it is too.

    You will have to work the others out for yourself.

  25. ALLAN.

    The Smith Commission is just a facilitator as I understand it-ie to tease out the areas of cross party agreement.

    Its website describes its terms of reference as follows :-

    “To convene cross-party talks and facilitate an inclusive engagement process across Scotland to produce, by 30 November 2014, Heads of Agreement with recommendations for further devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament. This process will be informed by a Command Paper, to be published by 31 October and will result in the publication of draft clauses by 25 January. The recommendations will deliver more financial, welfare and taxation powers, strengthening the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom.”

    But that leaves un-explained , what Smith reports if there is a significant failure to agree on one or another competence transfer.

    The area I have in mind is the all important one of Taxation, where both GB & EM have expressed reservations about a high degree of fiscal autonomy. We don’t need to spell out why there is implication for Labour’s Scottish MPs in this issue, or to speculate that Cons may see advantage at Westminster in offering Holyrood , more significant powers than Labour would countenance.

    There are so many variables here-the Scottish Labour leadership change effect, the attitude of Scottish voters etc , that it makes my head ache.

    But I have it down as at least as important as the UKIP in England effect potentially.

  26. R&D

    I don’t think it’s fair to pick on poor ole Valerie.
    ………..
    BARBAZENZERO
    .
    My views on it are best described in my reply to RICHARD at the end of the penultimate Saltired thread”

  27. @ Couper 2802

    …no one had to make a play for them they were in the Yes camp and succeeded winning over Labour voters.
    ————–
    The SNP were preaching loudly to the left-leaning choir whilst 25% of their own past supporters were ignored because a few opinion polls showed that 25% were currently supporting No. So I think, in a way, you are actually supporting my point rather than disagreeing with it.

  28. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Aptly put

  29. In Rochester and Strood, the Scottish Nationalist Socialist Worker’s Party will finish behind the likes of Islamaphobic Britain First, the utterly bonkers Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

    And yes, even the Lib Dems.

    Why? Because they’re such an utter irrelevance to Rochester and Strood, the topic of this discussion, that they couldn’t even be bothered to stand.

  30. COLIN

    That is the big unknown “what Smith reports if there is a significant failure to agree on one or another competence transfer” where do we go from there?

    Also on taxation as you have highlighted..Labour have expressed reservations about a high degree of fiscal autonomy and yes we don’t need to spell out why that might be the case but all the anomalies were not on the VOW’S and because ;Labour (GB, remember him and his cry to the masses) were the front men for the BT side it is now them who are taking a kicking over their shambolic mantering <<<< It's a day of new words ;-)

    After the no vote Cameron and Salmond should had just held talks over what powers can be devolved and agreed on instead of this big long drawn out endless thing headed by Smith.
    ….
    "There are so many variables here-the Scottish Labour leadership change effect, the attitude of Scottish voters etc , that it makes my head ache.
    But I have it down as at least as important as the UKIP in England effect potential"
    ……..

    Take some Paracetamo, it's only going to get worse.

  31. @RosieandDaisie

    Sentiment is pretty trite but haven’t all three major parties (not counting UKIP) been guilty of nostalgia over the years. Not something
    Margaret Thatcher seemed to suffer from.

  32. wolf

    “sentiment” ??

    What is your particular point as it applies to me?

  33. Being tired of the Saltire doesn’t make me tired of life. Off to live a little.

  34. ALLAN

    Yep-many a twist to come.
    Never thought I would be interested in Scottish Politics :-)

  35. @Wolf

    Ukip not guilty of nostagia? If any party in the UK seeks to hark back to a bygone era (which may incidentally have never actually existed in that form) it is they!

    In fact their stock in trade is convincing former Tory and Labour voters that Ukip can take them back in a time machine to where they used to be – before the European Communities, before the end of the post war consensus, before large scale benefits etc.,

  36. @Valerie

    No. It’s London you have to be tired of to be tired of life. Apparently.

  37. Colin

    “Never thought I would be interested in Scottish Politics :-)”

    Never thought I’d be much interested in the political effects of demographics in London either, but last night’s discussion was most illuminating.

    Maybe it’s just because people, and why they do what they do, is interesting.

  38. The autumn statement will be interesting. What further benefit cuts will there be? Also which way will the government go, move to the right to counter ukip or move to the left to hover up unionists labour voter running for cover?

  39. PLDNAT

    @”Maybe it’s just because people, and why they do what they do, is interesting.”

    No doubt that is true -depending upon the people in question & what they are doing.

    But my interest in Scottish politics currently, arises purely as a result of the potential significance of its effects on the GE outcome; and the many fascinating variables & conundrums facing the main two party leaders.

  40. @ Colin (from this morning)

    Thanks for the correction on the Blair quote although to be perfectly honest I am not sure if you are making a point in that or not.

    I will accept I rather lazily accepted it was something Blair could have said. And it fitted with the point I wanted to make about the real dividing political line in British society

    In any case where Blair ultimately went wrong is that in having sold a “liberal” vision to the general public he ultimately went off on the ultimate “national” agenda in government with his proselytising of Western democracies eg. Iraq.

    Its my view that the propositions of nationalism and liberalism simply cannot be squared (although both might be finessed left or right) as they are didactic opposites. Having created a coalition of voters that supported him for the one notion it can hardly be a great surprise those same voters threw it back in his face when he struck out in the opposite direction.

  41. The SNP would in my personal view only make a deal with the Tories after the election if such a deal guaranteed full independence for Scotland immediately and was an unbreakable pledge/vow (call it what you will) and I think we would all accept the chances of the Tories agreeing to such a deal would be virtually impossible so I suspect there is little point in continuing that discussion!

  42. GRHINPOORTS

    Thanks

    I don’t think he would have said something as simplistic & one-dimensional as that-which was why I tried to track it as a TB quote-failed & brought it to your attention.

    I have my own views on why Blair eventually fell out of favour with the voters who first flocked to vote for him. I must confess that it is highly anecdotal since it is based on my own mistaken vote for Labour in 1997 :-)

  43. @Amber

    Thanks for reply – I’m glad to have been mistaken. There are too few voices like Katy Clark’s in Westminster.

  44. Could it be the case that Labour voters are voting strategically for UKIP thinking a UKIP victory in the by-election might weaken the Conservatives in the GE ? That would be highly bizarre if it were true.

  45. Good Afternoon everyone.
    Rosie and Daisie; There was no GE in 34; there was a big GE in 45.

    Just imo; it was, about tory exits being Lab’s last hope.

  46. Is anyone able to tell me what voting system the Scottish Labour Leadership election will use?

  47. Hannah

    Some of the complexities are explained here by John Curtice.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29784570

  48. OLDNAT

    Thanks

    Interesting website-that is a pretty bullish view of UKIP votes .

  49. Amateur footy experts remind me of some of the knee-jerk reactions to the latest political stuff from some on here.

    Before half-time Arsenal are drawing 0-0 with Burnley, having had 72% position, umpteen corners, shots and shots on target plus a clear handball/penalty not given for them.

    The “expert” verdict?

    “Arsenal are inconsistent: bore draw.”

    The result?

    Arsenal 3 Burnley 0

    The moral?

    Wait until the match is at least almost over before drawing hasty conclusions about the 2015 GE.

    As Arsene say: “Life is motion.”

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