The Kent Messenger are now reporting the voting intention figures from the Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood poll. Topline figures with changes from the previous Survation Rochester poll right after Mark Reckless’s defection are CON 33%(+2), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 1%(-1), UKIP 48%(+8), GRN 2%.

As with the ComRes poll a week ago it shows UKIP with a solid lead. While there will always be some underlying churn, the obvious implication of the changes since the start of October is that the Labour vote has been significantly squeezed, and is breaking heavily in UKIP’s favour.


376 Responses to “Survation poll in Rochester has UKIP lead growing to 15 points”

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  1. Having just got married in 1968, I’m glad to say that politics was the last thing on my mind at that time.

  2. Ed et al
    Nice and well-informed discussion on place related differences of affiliation and voting in the Kent and south Estuary suburbs – widely differing, within as well as between council districts.
    My Aunt Amy’s house was in the posh end of Bexley (Iris Avenue, do I remember) close to Danson Park. Uncle Jack worked the Totalisator at the Crayford dog track, and they had one of the first televisions v. posh – while we lived at the New Eltham end of Sidcup. I cycled to Chislehurst and Sidcup County Grammar School at Crittal’s Corner, but worked later in leafy Chislehurst (Ah, Margaret Carter, whom I kissed, aged sixteen, in the attic of Chambers Correspondence College. Are still there, a pretty old lady with eight grandchildren?) – and we had all migrated from Woolwich and then Catford. Good fodder for UIKP, but deep Labour roots.

  3. From The Telegraph

    “Net payments to Brussels rose by of £2.7 billion between 2012 and 2013 and has quadrupled in the last five years.

    The analysis does not include a separate £1.7 billion payment which Brussels demanded last week.

    The rise will infuriate Eurosceptic MPs”

    When this by-election is won by UKIP, some of the MP’s previously declaring they would not defect will have a good excuse to move to UKIP.

    They will simply say that Dave C and the Cons have failed to prevent these rising contribution and only UKIP can do so

    Their fear of losing their seats will not be mentioned.

    I am sure it is all being planned as we speak.

  4. Good Morning All.
    FLOATING VOTER: I think you are right about the effects of the EU payments and the by-election; the only real hope Labour have at the moment is the exits of more Tories.

  5. “Rochester is another matter – Labour need to find an anti-squeeze tactic from somewhere….They need to try something different anyway.”

    My ‘something different’ would be to stay away. This is a fight between the Old Tory Party and the New Tory Party, so why get involved at all? With UKIP in the 40’s, and Tories in the 30’s every other party – whoever they are – will be left with the crumbs. The bigger the Tory defeat, the better for Labour. Save money and promises for another day when they can be of much greater usefulness.

  6. Good Morning Chris

    Yes, and i think when Anthony Wells updates the running average this weekend, the Lab score will sink to 33

  7. @ RAF/Candy (from last night)

    “The question is why do Labour working class areas not seem as amenable to Ukip as Tory working class areas? I suspect the reason might be that nationalism – a part of Thatcher’s draw to Tory working class voters is now being more effectively deployed by Ukip. So as well as being the anti-politics party,Ukip succeeds as it melds that with nationalism.”

    &

    “As for the middle classes, they loathe UKIP with a purple passion. The Tory middle classes really like Cameron’s old-school-tie networking (reminds them of pre-Thatcher days), and the Labour middle classes want Blair-style centrism with a strong safety net. Both hate nativism, jingoism, cruelty and crudeness (all of which UKIP has in spades).”

    IMO the rise of UKIP is reflective of where debate in this country is really travelling.

    A debate between nationalism on the one hand and liberalism on the other.

    This even chimes slightly with @SYZGY’s Blair quote:

    “there were only two parties – those who believed in the ‘wisdom of the market’ and those who saw a positive role for the state”

    It seems to me you can either take a liberal embracing view of the “market” (AKA in reality as global capitalism which I feel is here to stay whatever our politicians might tell us and broadly there not arguing against it) AND then work out how your might define the lines of fairness and equity

    OR

    you can invest in a powerful national state as a bulwark against the “market” (global capitalism) in the hope you can better define the lines of fairness and equity.

    The fairness/equity argument is of course a left/right one but there is very little wriggle room for either in the modern global capitalist world. The right cannot advance overly much further or they risk becoming democratically untenable. The left cannot seriously roll back global capitalism to much effect.

    Its the failure of left and right to be able to do very much that is currently feeding into their present electoral malaise in my view.

  8. I should have added that RAF’s quote is reflective of the rise of nationalist position and Candy’s quote is reflective of the liberalist position.

    And both positions fit more securely into the modern day British class system.

  9. Ed Miliband on HoL is an interesting move.

    Should be popular with Greens and LibDems, however I am sure people will point out how EM and Labour effectively blocked reform in this parliament.

    Also the wording of the statement:
    “We will make the second chamber of Parliament truly a senate of the regions and nations of our whole country.”

    Does suggest a US style Senate where small states get the same representation as big? Waiting on the details to see how this plays out.

  10. @BritinKorea

    I think regions based on something the EU elections areas makes sense.

    These are known and require little if no work to re-use.

  11. I would add that reform the second chamber is some what of a triviality though.

    I imagine that the key reform that matters to Greens and Lib Dems is reforming the Commons.

  12. GRHINPORTS

    @” @SYZGY’s Blair quote:
    “there were only two parties – those who believed in the ‘wisdom of the market’ and those who saw a positive role for the state”

    It wasn’t a quote. It was in a sentence by Sue which started” Tony Blair said”.
    She put no quotation marks around the rest of her sentence-provided in a post on Richard Murphy’s website in a thread about “The Cowardly State”.

    I have searched for a verbatim quote from TB in the terms suggested by Sue & cannot find it.

  13. BRITINKOREA

    @”Ed Miliband on HoL is an interesting move.”

    Should be a surefire vote winner.

    Labour’s answer to that hugely popular Conservative initiative in local democracy-the elected Police & Crime Commissioner.

    Disaffected voters everywhere will cry-YES :-)

  14. AW, any idea when the full tables of the YouGov Scottish poll will be available. The Herald’s “New poll: Scotland would back indy if fresh vote was held now” of today states:
    Independence now has the backing of 52% of people in Scotland compared with 48% for the union, Today’s YouGov/Times poll also found 43% of Labour supporters now back independence, with only 22% saying Labour represents their interests well against 65% who said it represents them badly and New data released today suggests only 3% of people feel Scottish Labour has a lot of freedom to pursue different policies from the UK party, while a quarter said it has none at all.

    See http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/new-poll-scotland-would-back-indy-if-fresh-vote-was-held-now.1414830607

    Tables for the extra questions should be interesting, to say the least, but the PDF on the YouGov site doesn’t seem to include them and nor do they [yet?] get a mention on YouGov’s “LABOUR’S SCOTTISH NIGHTMARE” article.

  15. @Colin

    “Should be a surefire vote winner.”

    Yes. I agree with you, it will be popular. The institutional changes to replace the House of Lords are quite radical and it’s not hard to see how they could provide the springboard for further change over time, just as the establishment of the Welsh and Scottish Assemblies provided a momentum for further devolution. The emphasis on giving a proper voice to the English regions will allow Labour to tap into the anti Westminster/London mood prevalent across the rest of England.

  16. Barbazenzero

    The most immediate impact of that poll is likely to be in the LiS (Amber’s contraction seems to be the most accurate one) leadership election.

    How will Labour members and, possibly more importantly, the members of affiliated organisations, view this?

    They are even more likely than the general population to know that LiS can have little freedom of action – unless it builds its own membership and financial base to be self-supporting.

    In that context, will they see Murphy’s
    “Those who know me know I’m big enough and ugly enough not to be pushed around. I have been in politics long enough. I’m going to unite the Scottish Labour Party. I will decide as Scottish Labour leader who we appoint, how we hire, how we fire and all those sorts of big issues”
    as the kind of leader they need to try to chisel some concessions out of London, or simply as vainglorious boasting?

    Or will the candidate’s positioning on the left-right spectrum be the dominant issue? Something to be used in Scotland as a campaigning tool while they continue to hope that the addition of “Scottish” to “Labour” will still persuade voters that they are voting for something different from just “Labour”.

  17. Tactical Voting?
    Do we have any figures on how many seats there are which are currently polling as either UKIP v. Con or UKIP v Lab, with the other major party (either Con or Lab) a fairly distant 3rd?

    It would be interesting to see whether supporters of the third party in such seats are tactically breaking towards UKIP not because they particularly like them, but because they want to stop their main rival for government from winning.

    My suspicion is that, depending on a number of factors, this may all end up being extraordinarily goods news for UKIP in terms of winnable seats, but which at the same time may end up having no overall effect on which of Con and Lab are positioned to form a government, assuming such tactical voters end up cancelling each out.

  18. It has often struck me as odd that we have “Scottish Labour” but not “English Labour”.

    I like the idea of Lords reform. Oft promised and slow progress with that, though. Perhaps it’s time to consider abolishing it instead? Those countries with unicameral legislational arrangements seem to get along just fine.

  19. Long time lurker, first time caller. Haven’t seen it mentioned earlier, but surely Labour have been using the Rope a Dope technique in Rotherham; let UKIP and the Tories chew through their war chest to score political points off each other whilst they are happy just to introduce their candidate and save their coppers for when the campaign for the general election starts in February.

  20. OLDNAT

    Whilst I am interested in what’s going on in LiS [it is a better moniker] and the Labour Party generally, having watched it drift ever rightwards since the 60s I have never voted for it and try not to intrude in private grief.

    My views on it are best described in my reply to RICHARD at the end of the penultimate Saltired thread….

    Trust the North British Person to mangle the quote. Versions of it appeared in French memoirs at the time of N’s death, but the earliest known translation of it into English is in Volume 5 of Archibald Alison’s “French Revolution” published by Blackwood and Sons of Edinburgh in 1836 as:
    “In that case,” said Napoleon, “let us wait twenty minutes; when the enemy is making a false movement we must take good care not to interrupt him.”
    see http://books.google.com/books?id=pgcUAAAAQAAJ&q=%22false+movement%22&redir_esc=y#v=snippet&q=%22false%20movement%22&f=false

  21. It does seem that Labour voters are switching to UKIP in places where Labour have no real chance, just to embarrass the Torys. This mirrors the position in Scotland where many Torys voted SNP to give Labour a hard time. The irony is of course, that in each case, my enemy’s enemy is definitely not my friend.

  22. @ Colin

    Fraser Nelson actually… writing in the Telegraph:

    ‘ Blair is not entirely delusional….. His key insight was to recognise that the great dividing line in this country is not between Labour and Tory, but between those who believe in the market and those who believe in the state.

    On one side stand the Tory paternalists, the Lib Dem Left and Old Labour MPs who, essentially, believe Britain should be governed by a benign elite.

    On the other side lie Tory radicals (Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith) and the New Labour praetorians (RIP)..’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9057323/If-Labour-ditched-David-and-Ed-Miliband-it-could-actually-win-an-election.html

    Don’t know where on earth Richard Murphy is supposed to fit in??

    (PS You always seem to be picky about my comments – just ignore them if you don’t like them… it puts me off joining in)

  23. rmj1

    “This mirrors the position in Scotland where many Torys voted SNP to give Labour a hard time”

    Maybe not a wholly accurate picture. Latest YG Scottish poll –

    Con : Retained 68% of 2010 vote. Others have gone 12% UKIP : 9% Lab : 7% SNP : 3% LD ; 1% GRN : 9% DK
    SNP : Retained 82% of 2010 vote. Others have gone 7% CON : 4% LAB : 3% UKIP : 3% GRN : 4% DK

    While some of the SNP 2010 voters, now plan to vote Tory, some of the 2010 Tory voters now plan to vote SNP.

    Tories in Scotland have generally been more ready to transfer votes to Labour rather than SNP (c/f Oban North & Lorn).

    Tactical voting can have some interesting outcomes. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find Eastwood resembling the Battle of Sheriffmuir next May. Even more Tories voting tactically for Murphy to keep a right wing Unionist in place, while SNP voters vote Tory tactically to try to oust him. :-)

  24. It has often struck me as odd that we have “Scottish Labour” but not “English Labour”.

    I find it extremely odd that the SNSWP have gone on the chicken run by not putting up a candidate in Rochester and Strood. They must clearly be highly relevant to the constituency given the endless discussion about them in this thread.

  25. Having a bit of a weird week, party-politically speaking.

    Labour announcing HoL reform which I wholeheartedly support (depending on exactly what they mean – if they envisage the same number of senators for NI and England then I might have some issues).

    The Tories announcing the abolition of Police Cautions, one of the resounding success stories of criminal justice policy since the war. Based on a complete understanding of the nature and basis upon which the system operates.

    If only there was a sensible centre-right Eurosceptic party I could join. Can’t Kate Hoey and Sarah Woollaston both defect and found one between them?!

  26. *based on a complete misunderstanding of the nature and basis etc..

  27. @Oldnat

    Incidentally the latest odds of the LiS leadership election:

    Murphy 4/11
    Findlay 3/1
    Boyack 10/1.

    Those odds have to be demoralising for those who want Labour to win over voters lost to the SNP and Scottish Greens. The candidate least likely to arrest the slide is almost certain to win.

    I always think it better for leadership contests for ordinary. members of the party to nominate candidates. Whoever the most popular candidate is becomes the leader unless they don’t want the job, in which case the next placed candidate takes the role.

  28. @Neil A

    That wouldn’t work. Wollaston would be fine but Hoey would find grounds for disagreement on almost every issue. I sometimes think Hoey should become an Independent rather than belonging to any party but lacks the courage to do so.

  29. RAF
    I would not ask party members to choose leaders, normally. Better to get the X factor stuff out of the way with a focus group approach. I cannot imagine the likes of IDS, E Miliband or M Campbell winning one of those in a month of Sundays.
    It’s only worth at maximum a couple of percent anyway, IMO, and that view is supported by polling (e.g. the endless what-ifs about B Johnson).

  30. @Anthony

    Could we have a return to the situation where Scottiish politics are only discussed when there is a Saltaire in the heading?
    Just a thought.

  31. @Neil A

    That’s a shocking move by Chris Grayling.

    How many people will not have cases strong enough to take to court and fail to adhere to the ‘community resolution’? What happens then? If there cases are ‘weak’ would the CPS push for a trial? Or will not completing the ‘community resolution’ become and offence itself?

    ….but then that leads to the evidence being weak that might have led to the caution over a court process in the first place?

    Would this lead to weak cases being prosecuted on the technicalities of breaching the ‘community resolution’, if if that ‘community resolution’ was based on weak evidence?

    That would be the road to many unfair convictions possibly.

    I hope you can make sense of this.

  32. Anthony

    Sorry I meant Scottish Polls. I know this is not a site for political discussion.

  33. @ Richard,

    Now just imagine if, instead of sitting out the Rochester campaign, and giving a speech on immigration for the short visit that was made, instead Labour had spent these 4 weeks with Miliband making multiple visits and banging on about the NHS, lack of GP’s, etc, etc..

    But a) losing would then be dangerous for them because it would make them look useless and b) winning in a Labour > Tory > Ukip order would be dangerous for them, because it would reinforce the “Vote Ukip, get Miliband” narrative the Tories are relying on to woo voters back in May.

    This way they can say, “We didn’t even try, Cameron threw the kitchen sink at it and still got crushed, oh and by the way vote Ukip in Tory seats and you get Ukip.”

    Not contesting Rochester is a gamble because anything that boosts Ukip further has the potential to hurt them as well, if there is some tipping point where Ukip begins to take more Labour voters than Tory ones. But it’s not a gamble as far as the narrative is concerned. Besides, a Tory meltdown is probably more use to them than a by-election win at this point.

  34. @Valerie

    That isn’t fair, as if you don’t want to engage on Scottish issues – don’t read them or post.

    If Scottish posts are banned from non-Scottish threads, then surely non-Scottish posts need to be banned from Scottish threads.

    We don’t need to live in compartments do we?

  35. @CatmanJeff

    Isn’t the problem with an official caution that it stays on the cautionee’s file forever, notwithstanding the fact that the alleged offence was never prosecuted?

  36. I never knew that!

  37. RAF @CatmanJeff

    BBC version http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29859758

    also has Labour suggesting “cautions have been dished out wrongly for serious sexual and violent crimes like rape.”

    I’d have thought that fairly unlikely, but Neil A will know.

  38. What are they gonna replace cautions with?

    Pre-mod?

  39. This “vote UKIP, get Labour” thing isn’t going to work if Labour sink further in the polls. It will have to be “vote UKIP, get another coalition like this one”. Mmm, some voters might forget who is in the current one.

  40. Sue

    I was disagreeing with GRHINPORTS, who said :-

    “This even chimes slightly with @SYZGY’s Blair quote:
    “there were only two parties – those who believed in the ‘wisdom of the market’ and those who saw a positive role for the state””

    In fact , in the post to which he referred, you did not state that phrase as a quote.-as I pointed out to him.

    That is why I corrected him.

    In trying to Google for a quote from TB of that precise phrase, Google came up with one reference only-your use of it two years ago in a comment on a thread on Richard Murphy’s website.

    So my comment was not addressed to you-it did not criticise you.

    If and when I want to disagree with you I will make it clear that I am doing so.

    Meantime please try to read what I say before you leap into print.

  41. My MP – Katy Clark

    “I have put my name forward to be Deputy Leader of the Scottish Labour Party”

  42. VALERIE

    The BBC’s Dateline London is on right now, comparing UKIP with the SNP with the French journo suggesting that the Westminster party leaders come across as rabbits stuck in the headlights compared with the “ordinary people” at the top of the two currently causing headaches for the Con/Lab/LD triumvirate.

    I suspect that will be a theme which none of the London media will be able to shake off before GE 2015, and which will make polling pretty interesting until then, when Saltired or not.

  43. CATMANJEFF

    Have to agree with you. On the last saltire thread much of the discussion was non Scottish and as far as I know no one complained about it.

    As with all threads the main topic in the heading runs its course after a while then we start seeing people discussing different topics/polls running in tandem with each other.

    With the state of politics in Scotland and the implications it could have for the GE then I’m not surprised people do discuss Scottish polls on non Saltire threads and as long as its within the rules of engagement I don’t see it as a problem.

    rools R rools

  44. RAF
    @CatmanJeff

    “Isn’t the problem with an official caution that it stays on the cautionee’s file forever, notwithstanding the fact that the alleged offence was never prosecuted?”
    ______

    Yes AW does run a tight ship. A few of my posts have been cautioned and will stay in the naughty file for ever.

  45. @ Old Nat

    I have read of cautions being given for those offences in domestic violence cases; but I don’t have the supporting documents in a linkable form.

  46. @ Old Nat

    I viewed Anas Sarwar standing down as being necessary to ensure that the deputy was an MSP, in the event of Jim Murphy winning the leadership. Katy Clark obviously doesn’t share my view or isn’t bothered by it. Good for her!

  47. Well just to annoy Valerie, I’m going to point out that I was right when I thought YouGov was keeping something from us. They have now published the full version of their Scottish poll:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fyv6pya3md/Times-results-141030-scotland-FULL.pdf

    Presumably the Times asked to keep part of it back for today’s paper, though whether they used it or not I don’t know. Certainly the Press Association picked up on it and the Website That Must Not Be Linked To has published it headed “Scotland would now vote for independence, poll finds”.

    In actual fact this isn’t true. If you look at the details, it shows that, excluding the 6% who say they wouldn’t vote or are unsure how, 52% say they would now vote Yes.

    But this is based on a sample who say that 48% of then voted Yes in September, when it was actually 44.7%. YouGov don’t appear to have reweighted their result to reflect this, but if you do Yes reduces from 52% to 48.4%, though because YouGov’s figures are rounded it’s a little misleading to be this precise when calculating from them.

    So the poll suggests that Scots would still vote No, though by a very narrow margin. There is definite movement towards Yes and surprisingly those who have switched have done so decisively, rather than moving much to Don’t Know.

    There’s a lot of useful stuff in the tables, particularly as YouGov have cross-tabbed against referendum vote, both then and now. They also seem to be still weighting for birthplace which is useful as those born ‘Elsewhere in the UK’ have a very different voting pattern and are over-represented in the sample by a factor of 2.

  48. @ Valerie

    The Scottish only issue has been raised on UKPR several times. We’ve asked Anthony whether we can have a ‘running’ separate thread like the constituency ones but he doesn’t think that would work.

    I’m sorry that you are having to put up with the Scottish stuff when it doesn’t interest you; but there is such a lot happening, politically, here that I’m thinking it does warrant the indulgence of all who are political ‘geeks’ regardless of whether they are in Scotland or not.

  49. Amber Star

    I have read of cautions being given for [serious sexual and violent crimes like rape] in domestic violence cases; but I don’t have the supporting documents in a linkable form.

    You can see such a thing happening when the victim withdraws the complaint and the police don’t then have enough to bring a prosecution, if there is an uncooperative witness. They might use a caution to show that they have done what they can (or so that they have ‘cleared up’ the case), but it’s still unsatisfactory if the victim changes their mind again – or gets in a situation where they feel better able to say what happened.

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