YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%. It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.


273 Responses to “New YouGov GB and Scottish polls”

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  1. Speaking of misguided:

    Couper2802

    Labour had a Gala dinner in Glasgow last night and there was a protest and a foodbank collection outside. Ed donated a bag of food – Tunnock’s Tea Cakes, Porridge Oats, Shortbread – Seriously who advises him?

    Probably the same person who suggested that eating a bacon butty in public was a good PR ploy. I am coming to the conclusion that the advisers to Conservative and Labour leaders have done a job swap and no one has noticed that they are busy undermining them to maximum effect. Given that both sets seem to have identical backgrounds, beliefs and attitudes, it’s not surprising if this happened.

    Brameley asked what Miliband should have done. I would have suggested visiting a food bank (without Press) beforehand to donate stuff they actually needed (having checked first). And a word with protesters outside where you mention this. Of course 95% of the media are out to get him and always have been, but there’s no need to give them any assistance.

    I mean – shortbread. FFS

  2. Bramley

    Sorry for that intrusive ‘e’. It’s the effect of all these Yorkshire placenames.

  3. Carfrew

    Agree that a lot of UKIP supporters don’t care, the quorum who previously would not vote. (Whether or not they vote on the day is moot in most seats apart from where UKIP is challenging for a win)

    How the other UKIPers go will be a large part of determining the election.

    Taking UKIP to be around 16% now, if half of them are part of the will not vote and will never vote for another party that leaves approx 6% ex blue and 2% ex red.

    It’s hard to understand why ex blue UKIPers jumped and what it will take for them to jump back. I think these people are very pessimistic about the concept of reforming the EU and have given up on it as a lost cause, focus on the negatives of the EU and in general will be very hard to get them to listen to an alternative narrative. Banging the drum over the 2 billion recalculation might convince some that Cameron can go to the EU and win but really I don’t think these people are listening NOW. They are caught up in the euphoria of the rise of UKIP.

    Will they listen in the leadup into a close election in the marginal seats which could make the difference between a con led or lab led government? (This is only one case but in the other cases they probably see no harm to holding firm.)

    There appears to be a fairly large pool which should appear tempting to conservative strategists, (add 6% to the con vote and everything looks pretty good for them). I don’t think this vote is that easy to tap into though, and it might be that the largest part who comes back will come back in the face of a possible EM premiership.

    The red UKIP vote is on the surface is more confusing. I think the conclusion is either the have turned from Lab as a protest or fad but still hold to Labour values.

    The other alternative is they never held labour values but had no alternative, particularly in Northern cities where there has never been a socially acceptable option to Labour. They see UKIP as an alternative now and see they can vote for them because they aren’t the f***ing Tories.

    Of course these are generalisations and there will be a mixture of reasons why people are moving to UKIP, but the only way to describe mass changes in VI is through generalisations.

    Unless you want to go walking around a London park asking for peoples opinions.

    How it’ll end up at the next election, I think it’s very uncertain and giving strategists sleepless nights.

  4. @ Roger Mexico,

    I am coming to the conclusion that the advisers to Conservative and Labour leaders have done a job swap and no one has noticed that they are busy undermining them to maximum effect

    Not to mention the Lib Dem advisers. And the Lib Dems MPs.

    I’m starting to think virtually everyone in politics is some kind of double agent. On the evidence of this week’s that-which-must-not-be-named, Miliband is now in the employ of Ukip. And the European Commission definitely are, although that may just be because they hate Cameron.

  5. @MrNameless

    Labour win SY PCC By-election on first preferences (50.02%!)
    ________________________________________

    Congratulations. I know its an election everyone thinks is pointless, but I think another hit for Labour this week would not have been good for them, and it sounds like you worked hard, so well done.

  6. I and a friend have guesstimated that about 50 votes stopped it going to second prefs – easily down to our last canvass session in Endcliffe. Of course it wasn’t just us but cumulative effort of everyone involved.

    …You’re all annoyed we couldn’t see where second prefs went, aren’t you?

  7. @Colin

    Strangely, your observation regarding North Sea Oil revenues has aroused little interest from the newly switched-on Scots. Recommend you explain how it would be bad for sLAB, that might do the trick!!…

    p.s., apparently they announced new oil find the other day, which might not happinate Scotsies, since it’s so soon after the refere

  8. after the referendum. Only 50 million barrels though…

  9. @ Mr. Nameless,

    …You’re all annoyed we couldn’t see where second prefs went, aren’t you?

    A little, but I’ll settle for this result. ;)

  10. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Actually, it wouldn’t help anyway, because the second preferences we really care about were Ukip’s and they were in second place.

    I guess we could see if there was a substantial Tory ABU vote but I don’t think it’s relevant for 2015 because they won’t really be the expected challengers anywhere.

  11. @Carfrew

    This will be music to the ears of referendum conspiracy theorists — there was talk of the announcement of a large discovery was being delayed until after the referendum. (Of course, this is a lot more plausible than elections being rigged etc.)

  12. @MrNameless

    …You’re all annoyed we couldn’t see where second prefs went, aren’t you?
    __________________________________________

    Not really, they would have gone to the party of second place at the moment, UKIP, then we would have had more anti immigrant nonsense. The debate seems to be moving on nicely towards the end of this week….

  13. Isabel Hardman has an analysis in the Spectator, and it seems Labour won in all local authorities

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/10/labour-wins-south-yorkshire-pcc-by-election/

    Agree, meaningless on a 15% turnout, but as she says, it deflates the UKIP attack line.

  14. Roger Mexico
    “I would have suggested visiting a food bank (without Press)”

    You reminded me of this piece in the Indyfrom Dec 2013

    Ed Miliband has breached a basic rule of politics, which is that if you do good, make sure people know. For some years he has spent part of each Christmas Day delivering lunches on behalf of a charity, and will do again next Wednesday.

    Though his office will not deny that it is on the schedule, they will not give any details, because they do not want any cameras or journalists following him.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-mcsmiths-diary-ed-miliband-breaches-the-spin-doctors-rules–he-does-good-on-the-quiet-9013963.html

    It seems Mr Miliband does indeed do good deeds on the quiet…

  15. Richard

    They did.

    Barnsley result (South Yorks. PCC):
    LAB – 50.7%
    UKIP – 30.8%
    CON – 12.5%
    EDEM – 6.0%

    Sheffield result (South Yorks. PCC):
    LAB – 57.0%
    UKIP – 25.5%
    CON – 12.5%
    EDEM – 5.1%

    Doncaster result (South Yorks PCC):
    LAB – 45.4%
    UKIP – 33.7%
    CON – 14.0%
    EDEM – 6.9%

    Rotherham is confirmed as a Lab win on first preferences but full details still not released.

  16. If anyone wants to send some Tunnock’s tea cakes or shortbread my way they will be gratefully received. You can keep the porridge oats though.

  17. mrnameless

    […]…You’re all annoyed we couldn’t see where second prefs went, aren’t you?

    Yup. And we want the tallymen’s reports now. And the transfers from last night’s by-election if anyone from North Ayrshire is reading.

  18. https://www.barnsley.gov.uk/services/council-and-democracy/councillors-democracy-and-elections/voting/current-elections

    Total number of valid first preference votes: 148,062

    ALLEN David English Democrats “Putting England First!” 8,583 (5.8%)

    BILLINGS Alan Labour Party Candidate 74,060 (50.02%)

    CLARKSON Jack UK Independence Party (UKIP) 46,883 (31.66%)

    WALKER Ian The Conservative Party Candidate 18,536 (12.52%)

    Number of ballot papers rejected at first count: 2,299

    The turnout in the South Yorkshire Police Area at this election was 14.88%.

  19. @ Roger Mexico

    I mean – shortbread. FFS
    ——–
    I like shortbread. It keeps well, tastes nice & is a good source of calories if you’re not getting a lot to eat. As is porridge. Tunnocks tea cakes, not so healthy. But gods forbid that a family short of food should get a wee treat for their kids every now & again, eh?

  20. @ Amber,

    I don’t think the problem is that no one would like to eat those foods.

  21. Perhaps he should have donated some Buckfast Tonic Wine and some Mars Bars?

  22. @ Spearmint

    I did suggest eggs but Ed said, ‘No – they’ll just be used as ammunition when Jim leaves at the end of the dinner.’

  23. @ Amber,

    Lol!

  24. Spearmint.

    “Mind you, those Doncaster results don’t look so good!”

    I think you’re reading a bit too much into those figures. The turnout was tiny, UKIP have been on the march, and they STILL couldn’t get near to Labour. Labour’s overall vote share is well up on where it was in 2010 if not yet back to 2005 levels (in an election set against just about the worst possible backdrop for Labour).

    Lab vote share in the big Doncaster constituencies in the past 2 GEs

    Doncaster Central 2010: 39.7%, 2005: 51.3%
    Doncaster North 2010: 47.3%, 2005: 55.5%
    Don Valley 2010: 37.9%, 2005: 52.7%

    Basically, if UKIP can’t break through in an election like that in Doncaster and S Yorks, they don’t have a prayer of taking seats in May.

  25. @ Amber,

    Incidentally, if I may ask- though feel free to tell me to eff off, as the Prime Minister would say- as our leading light of Scottish Labourism, who are you backing for the leadership?

  26. @ Lefty,

    Oh, I wasn’t serious about them taking a seat. It’s just a bit embarrassing to potentially have a relatively narrow majority in the party leader’s seat when it’s in South Yorkshire.

    OTOH Doncaster once elected Peter Davies mayor, so maybe it’s not Labour that should be embarrassed…

  27. Ed Antoinette…………Let them eat shortbread ! :-)

  28. Populus Con 34 (=) Lab 34 (-2) LD 8 (=) UKIP 15 (+2) Green 5 (+2) Oths 3 (-1).

  29. YouGov Scottish tables on vote retention for Westminster, and where the vote loss has gone are worth a look.

    L_D : Retained 21% of 2010 vote. Others have gone 42% SNP : 14% LAB : 9% GRN : 8% UKIP : 5% CON : 19% DK
    Lab : Retained 56% of 2010 vote. Others have gone 32% SNP : 5% CON : 5% UKIP : 1% LD :1% GRN : 12% DK
    Con : Retained 68% of 2010 vote. Others have gone 12% UKIP : 9% Lab : 7% SNP : 3% LD ; 1% GRN : 9% DK
    SNP : Retained 82% of 2010 vote. Others have gone 42% SNP : 7% CON : 4% LAB : 3% UKIP : 3% GRN : 4% DK

  30. Amber

    LOL

  31. Roger Mexico

    No more data on the NAC North Coast by-election yet. Probably won’t get it on their website till Monday now.

  32. The PCC result is pretty good for Labour even if the lack of a LibDem candidate will have helped them. It does suggest that a collapse in the LibDem vote can compensate Labour for any losses to UKIP. Bad for the Tories, though, who wouldn’t appear to have gained any LibDem switchers – just losses to UKIP.

  33. sCOTTISH PARTY VOTE RETENTION FOR hOLYROOD CONSTITUENCY.

    L_D : Retained 36% of 2011 vote. Others have gone 22% SNP : 14% LAB : 12% UKIP : 10% CON : 7% GRN : 15% DK
    Lab : Retained 71% of 2011 vote. Others have gone 18% SNP : 3% LD : 2% UKIP : 2% CON :2% GRN : 14% DK
    Con : Retained 72% of 2011 vote. Others have gone 12% UKIP : 6% Lab : 4% SNP : 4% GRN : 2% LD : 6% DK
    SNP : Retained 74% of 2011 vote. Others have gone 8% LAB : 8% CON : 5% UKIP : 4% GRN : 1% LD : 4% DK

  34. @Oldnat

    erm… sNP. Thanks…

  35. cARFREW

    bLOODY cAPS lOCK!

  36. Spearmint.

    Doncaster is the perfect example of a confluence of incompetence/corruption and national neglect by Labour. Areas like Donny that were ignored by New Labour and the shenanigans of a very particular set of local Labour politicians poured acid over the resulting wounds.

    That said, Labour was never so bad that someone like Davies or the jumped up UKIP local wannabes would be a better choice. Having endured a few years of embarrassment at Davies’s hands, I think there are enough people in Donny who can see through the siren call of UKIP.

    But Labour had a generation-long job to do, of re-building trust in those people who used to form the core of the party’s support, and who have been cast aside by Labour’s “modernisation” project. If they don’t re-build that trust, they WILL lose the next generation to the snake oil salesman who tells them he understands what they need.

  37. “has” a generation-long job…

  38. So apart from Spearmint, we all think Populus is kosher nowadays?

  39. Another big problem for the government with the resignation of Fiona Wolf as chair of the child abuse enquiry. Another omnishambles Imo.

  40. Survation will tweet latest voting intention from Survation/Unite Rochester & Strood by-election poll at 6.30pm

    (I think we can probably guess who isn’t in the lead).

  41. PETER BELL.
    Good Afternoon to you.
    Yes, Mrs May must feel damaged by these events.

  42. @oLDNAT

    Capslock, lol, get with the programme…

  43. Surely all vetting (including the links people have) can de done before the job is offered?

  44. IMO Mrs. May is being badly advised by both her personal party staff and her civil servants.

    The public is fed up with the establishment having its own way all the time (and by ‘establishment’ I mean those who have alternated at the top for the past fifty years). IMO.

    But it would be wrong to try and make any party political capital out of any of this. It’s a horrendous mess.

  45. “Surely all vetting (including the links people have) can de done before the job is offered?”

    You’d think so wouldn’t you. Kudos must go to investigative minds that uncover the links for they are not members of the press & do not have access to the ‘sources’ the press have.

    Once might be regarded as a mistake, twice however is…..

  46. @Catmanjeff

    The problem would appear to lie with those who are doing the vetting…..

  47. Peter Bell
    I wondered if anyone would post about this. I cannot see for the life of me how there would be any effect on voters whatsoever.

  48. Catmanjeff

    Appointing someone from another country would seem to the obvious choice, if the Establishment actually want to get to the truth of the matter.

  49. Howard

    The problem/opportunity for VIs is that yet again the two big parties are seen to be putting their own insiders in positions of power, instead of listening to what the public wants, which is an unbiased, authoritative enquiry (or two) into one of the worst scandals ever to have been uncovered in the UK.

    Who will gain from this? UKIP perhaps?

    OTOH no-one ‘gains’ from this, for we all lose.

  50. HOWARD.
    I think the effect on voters will be added disillusionment with the so-called elites.
    The seven versions of letter saga will not have helped.

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