YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%. It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.


273 Responses to “New YouGov GB and Scottish polls”

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  1. Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-2), Con 34 (=), LD 8 (=), UKIP 15 (+2), Oth 9 (+1).

    Tabs: http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_03_11-2014_BPC.pdf

    That one reckons the Scottish CB is:

    SNP 33%
    Lab 30%
    Con 22%
    Green 6%
    UKIP 5%
    Lib Dem 3% (6th !)

    I think that given the recent polling to the contrary, and the sample size of the Populus poll, I’ll err on the side of caution with this one, and give it the thumbs down.

  2. Now you’re talking Oldnat, one democratic government for the whole world, what could possibly go wrong.

  3. Gazprom

    Especially when it decides how often your bin is to be emptied – or if you are to have a bin collection at all.

  4. Interested in EM’s interview with the Daily Record-in particular this :-

    ” “There are these issues of taxation but we have to make sure we maintain the redistribution and shared resources which are at the heart of the UK, while bringing more powers to Scotland.”

    He clearly clings to the Union as a vehicle for re-distribution across the UK. Putting aside his desire to hang on to his Scottish MPs, that is at least a cogent political philosophy.

    ie Rich South Easterners fund spending in Scotland.

    There is resistance to significant transfer of Taxation powers in Labour-as EM indicates, and explicitly expressed by GB.
    The cynic in me says that the more Scotland receives in fiscal “sovereignty”, the more the case for EVEL at Westminster is made.

    However, taking EM’s remark at face value, I wonder if Scots see it that way.
    In other words do Scots wish to allow Westminster to continue deciding who is taxed at what level, so that it may distribute funds , in its wisdom, to Scotland. Or would they prefer to decide their own tax levels , and redistribution policy within Scotland, and don’t much care what rich Southerners pay in tax?

    And if the Smith Commission reports no agreement on the devolution of taxation (1) , and Cons offer at the GE is for greater transfer of taxation powers, than in Labour’s offer-what implications does that have for Westminster VI in Scotland, and post GE support of a Conservative administraion ?

    (1) I make an assumption that Smith has to tease out agreed positions across the parties-or report areas of no agreement-haven’t checked that out.

  5. @Newhouset
    I’m referring to the overall seat projection, still giving an absolute majority to Labour.

    @Fraser
    Labour have likely a very slight advantage at a national level. However according to some polls, the Tories and Labour are statistically tied nationally and this may hint to a slight Conservative lead in England (as Labour is clearly ahead of the Tories in Scotland and Wales).
    Even considering that Labour have a more efficient voting distribution (their votes translate into more seat), the current scenario (no Labour seats in Northern Ireland, very few Labour seats in Scotland and substantial tie in the popular vote in England) appears to me to be more compatible with a Labour plurality than with a Labour absolute majority in Westminister.

  6. @Shevii

    Labour don’t seem to understand Scotland anymore. Why do they think Blairite Murphy one of the guys most associated with their referendum defeat will get the Labour Yes voters back? I have just seen a YouTube of Ed Miliband’s foodbank donation. Labour had a Gala dinner in Glasgow last night and there was a protest and a foodbank collection outside. Ed donated a bag of food – Tunnock’s Tea Cakes, Porridge Oats, Shortbread – Seriously who advises him?

    If Sarah or Findlay win Labour have a chance but not with Murphy leading them – I predict

    Plus I am really annoyed with myself after our betting convo the other day started to open an account to bet on a few SNP wins but didnt get it done – had to work, now my chance of good odds is gone. If you snooze you loose

  7. OldNat (1101 pm last night, page 1)

    You certainly may. Very understandable and the same point really.

  8. @Colin

    In other words do Scots wish to allow Westminster to continue deciding who is taxed at what level, so that it may distribute funds , in its wisdom, to Scotland. Or would they prefer to decide their own tax levels , and redistribution policy within Scotland, and don’t much care what rich Southerners pay in tax?

    The second definitely.

  9. So we may expect a Populus 5 point lead for Labour on Monday if history is to repeat itself. Perhaps not if they have changed their method again by then?

  10. Love Peter Kelner’s turn of phrase in this article:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/31/labours-scottish-nightmare/

    “Next May it [the SNP] can tell Scottish voters: ‘vote SNP to hold London’s feet to the fire and ensure it delivers the extra powers the party leaders have promised’.”

    I love of smell of roasted Londoner feet in the morning.

  11. Couper2802
    “Ed donated a bag of food – Tunnock’s Tea Cakes, Porridge Oats, Shortbread – Seriously who advises him?”

    What would you prefer him to have donated ? Twinings Earl Grey Tea, Caviar & Oysters ?

    He’s in a lose-lose situation with most of you, can’t do right for doing wrong.

  12. PMan
    “Yes, Maureen Lipman wasn’t someone [I] had on the radar, but there are plenty lined up over the coming months. And they won’t be just celebs turning away from Labour, they will be endorsing Cameron too.”

    That’ll make them nigh-on unique. Because virtually none of the supporters that Labour has lost over the past 2 years have endorsed Cameron.

    Lab VI is down 10-12% over the past 18-20 months. Tory VI hasn’t budged. Anyone predicting anything about May 2015 in such unprecedented conditions is, as Sir Humphrey would have put it, “very brave”.

  13. Couper.

    I’ve been busy this year so I’ve not been keeping up with the news. What referendum defeat was that?

  14. @ Couper

    Not sure I understand what Scotland wants either! I think it was Bill Patrick who pointed out that the Scots are actually against higher taxes (the traditional method of wealth redistribution). The flagged policy initiative were there to have been independence was a reduction in Corporation tax- a Tory policy if ever there was one.

    And are the Scots really any different to Manchester or Liverpool?

    To be honest, possibly from an ignorant English perspective, I tend to see a British landscape of both left and right being unhappy with the parties they traditionally looked to. In the South and East this takes the form of UKIP. The only difference to my mind with Scotland is that they have someone else to vote for that comes from the left whereas the North doesn’t have an electable alternative.

  15. COUPER2802

    Thanks.

    If that is true then the PK opinion quoted by STATGEEK is spot on.

    Ed’s dilemma :-)

  16. @Roger Mexico and New Forest Radical (you want Green news – here it is).

    Interestingly if you run the Holyrood 2016 numbers from the Yougov poll through Scotland Votes it suggess that the SNP would be likely to lose their overall majority on these numbers.

    This doesn’t surprise me at all and is primarily due to the rise in support for the Scottish Green Party.

    The Greens only need a relatively small increase from their 2011 vote to reach the point where they can return at least 1 list MSP in each region with 2 in Lothians and Glasgow. (This would total 10 MSPs and is a realistic target for them if they poll 9-12% of the regional vote.)

    Scotland Votes actually predicts 11 MSPs for Greens on this poll’s numbers but I’m not sure where the 11th comes from to be honest.

    If the Greens take 5+ MSPs it becomes very hard for SNP to take an absolute majority.

    The full seat prediction from Scotland Votes is:
    SNP 63 (-6)
    Labour 38 (+1)
    Conservative 14 (-1)
    Lib Dems 3 (-2)
    Green 11 (+9)

    Not sure that constitutes bad news for the SNP or good news for Scottish Labour but it’s certainly very positive for the Greens who I think came out of the referendum campaign with their reputation enhanced.

  17. mrnameless

    Estimates of turnout for SY PCC BE are about 6%.

    Barnsley (where the count is) is 11.9%, Doncaster 15.24%, so it look like in reality it will be well over 10% – that’s practically North Korean turnout in PCC terms.

    As before it looks like the postal votes are what are stopping a complete collapse in voting. For example Overall in [D]oncaster we issued approx 60k postal votes ,just over 26k returned – so the percentage of postal votes returned just over 43%. So it could well be that polling station was only 6%. This could also mean that Labour retain the post, though transfers could possibly beat them if they don’t lead by much on the first round.

    All info from David Hirst’s twitter feed:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHirstITV

  18. NorthumbrianScot

    The 11th seat isn’t Green. The program allocates Orkney to Other because an independent came second there last time. In reality I suspect it would be tight between Lib Dem and SNP.

    For what it’s worth UKIP would also pick up a seat in some (but not all) regions on these figures as well, but no one seems to have adapted prediction programs to cope with them – perhaps because it’s so difficult to allocate a base line for them..

  19. Overall turnout for Sth Yorks PCC is 14.88%- only slightly down

  20. Roger M
    Your point about postal turnout caused me to reflect on many polling questions (particularly ‘best leader’) where voters are returning answers on questions that would not have occurred to them to be asked.

    We returned our votes on the euros (postally) because they sent us an envelope. Whether we would have both bothered otherwise is open to doubt.

  21. Marco Faraci

    I’m referring to the overall seat projection, still giving an absolute majority to Labour.

    The seat projection on the UKPR site is based on the UKPR Polling Average – the figures immediately below the box headed Latest UNS Projection. This is a polling average of a large number of polls over the recent month rather than just the most recent one.

    If you want to know more about how that is calculated click on the tiny MORE… underneath and that should lead to a page headed “The UKPollingReport Polling Average” which will explain how it worked out in considerable detail.

    You can make your own similar projections based on any particular poll by clicking on one of the Swingometers in that box (ignore the Provisional one) and putting the figures in.

  22. Amber Star (from last night)

    There were post referendum polls done by Panelbase & Opinium which, for Labour, were okay & very good respectively. These new ones were done in the wake of Johann Lamont’s strop & they’re horrible for Labour

    The Opinium polls were actually both just before the referendum and were both a bit strange. I replied to you about them a while back and I can repost it if you want. Panelbase was only just after and also had some problems due to false recall leading to underweighting for the SNP, it seemed to show uncertainty if anything.

    Actually Lamont didn’t resign till 24 October and the MORI polling started on 22 October, though YouGov was all since then. Given that these things always take a while to filter through to the public and that most people don’t bother with the details of political infighting, it probably couldn’t make much difference. In any case the effect of leadership on VI is always over-rated by those in the media.

    Any “Let’s blame it all on Johann” movement is misguided. Which doesn’t mean of course that it won’t happen, as misguided is what SLab seem to specialise in at the moment.

  23. The following is not an endorsement of JM but purely for information should he win the SLab leadership contest:

    In terms of safe Holyrood seats for Jim Murphy Scotland Votes shows only 8 constituencies as being held by Labour on their current Holyrood Yougov polling numbers:
    Glasgow Provan
    Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn
    Coatbridge & Chryston
    Rutherglen
    Eastwood
    Renfrewshire South
    Dumbarton
    Dumfriesshire

    None of these incumbents immediately jump out as being of retirement age and wanting to move on but possibly one could be induced to retire with the right incentives.

    You’d imagine Eastwood would be the neatest fit for Jim Murphy (being wholly within Jim’s current East Renfrewshire constituency). The question is could Ken Mackintosh be persuaded to go?

    Eastwood (very middle class) and Dumbarton (lots of Trident workers) are probably the SNP’s 2 weakest seats in Scotland (excluding Shetland) so I’d try and pick one of them if I were intending to come up to Holyrood pre 2016 and wanted a very safe Labour seat to contest.

    On the other hand you can take the Alex Salmond 2007 route of choosing a marginal Holyrood seat and fighting on the basis of only wanting to be an MSP if you win a big enough percentage of the vote to be first minister.

    A really bold tactic would be to take on Nicola Sturgeon head on in Glasgow Southside but perhaps a more sensible approach would be an SNP held seat like Paisley, Glasgow Shettleston or even East Kilbride which neighbours East Renfrewshire and shares some characteristics with it.

  24. Yes estimates were way out, turnout was 14.9%. Not sure who that’s good for.

  25. Labour, evidently. Result from Doncaster is out:

    LAB – 45.4%
    UKIP – 33.7%
    CON – 14.0%
    EDEM – 6.9%

  26. Populus tables
    The weightings look OK to me, except the ‘political party affiliation’ ones possibly.

    Any comments from experts please?

    Unweighted base 2035 2035
    Weighted base 2035 2035

    (Unweighted, weighted)
    Conservative 572 570
    28% 28%
    Labour 559 590
    27% 29%
    Liberal Democrat 157 204
    8% 10%
    SNP 56 37
    3% 2%
    Plaid Cymru 9 4
    * *
    Green 77 45
    4% 2%
    UKIP 264 81
    13% 4%
    BNP 7 6
    * *
    Another party 15 10
    1% *
    None 319 488
    16% 24%

  27. @Roger Mexico re Scotland Votes

    I put independents on 0% on Scotland Votes and reallocated their percentage to other to avoid such issues and stop them continuing to give a seat to Margo (RIP).

    This led to them predicting both Orkney and Shetland for Lib Dems plus 1 list seat (presumably North East Scotland?)

    I suspect the 11th seat it is allocating to the Greens is a second list MSP in Highlands and Islands as they have a relatively high base there and Lib Dems will get a big list vote which does no good as they have 2 Constituencies thus reducing the threshold for returning a list MSP.

    Looking at the Scottish Parliament’s briefing paper on the European election results there is a map of UKIP support on page 14:
    http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_14-38.pdf

    It seems to show the best regions for UKIP would be South of Scotland and Highland’s and Islands.

    My guess would be South of Scotland would be where UKIP might break through at Holyrood especially if Tories there realise that they can vote tactically for UKIP on the regional list as they are unlikely to see additional Conservatives elected on the list if they hold their 3 constituencies at Ayr, Berwickshire and Galloway.

  28. PCC – Labour 56% in Sheffield.

  29. Northumbrian Scot

    Peat worrier points out that any SLab MSP willing to fall on his sword to let Murphy have his seat would need to have no wish to collect his MSP pension.

    http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/murphy-expects-ritual-disembowelment.html

    Additionally, in today’s environment forcing an artificial by-election to try to put Jim into Holyrood would be a very dangerous move – and likely to lead to total humiliation, no matter how nominally safe the seat might be.

  30. Regarding PCC
    Back to the Council Watch Committees anyone?

  31. Aren’t the Scottish Greens often allies or in agreement with the SNP in Holyrood? If so, it seems like the generally nationalist direction of voter intention is pretty much unchanged.

  32. @ Roger Mexico

    I replied to you about them a while back and I can repost it if you want.
    You can repost it, I don’t mind replying to you again.

    Actually Lamont didn’t resign till 24 October and the MORI polling started on 22 October…

    And finished on the 29th.

    Given that these things always take a while to filter through to the public…

    Not in Scotland they don’t; everybody is very switched on to politics since the referendum.

    Any “Let’s blame it all on Johann” movement is misguided.
    Wow! I voice a personal opinion & I’m a whole ‘movement’ all of a sudden; that’s exciting!

  33. Newhouset

    “This Police Commissioner business seems to have been an all round success for the Tory Party.”

    About as successful as the SNP idea of having directly elected Health Boards. Though fortunately that was piloted first, and dropped after the pilot.

  34. Howard,

    “Regarding PCC
    Back to the Council Watch Committees anyone?”

    You’ll have to explain that to us, Howard. I don’t think many of us are old enough to have a clue what you’re talking about.

  35. OldNat,

    “About as successful as the SNP idea of having directly elected Health Boards”

    We’ll take your word for that.

  36. @Old Nat

    Good old LPW that’s very interesting indeed.

    If I were Jim I’d only settle for Dumbarton or Eastwood for a by-election. Can’t see Ken Mackintosh or Jackie Baillie being keen to take that financial hit to be honest.

    A quick check shows that there isn’t a vacancy for a High Commissioner in Malawi or Australia either…

  37. MrNameles,

    “Labour, evidently. Result from Doncaster is out:

    LAB – 45.4%
    UKIP – 33.7%
    CON – 14.0%
    EDEM – 6.9% ”

    Are you some wind-up merchant?

  38. NewHouseT

    Google is your friend.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watch_committee

    They were replaced by essentially the same thing only with councillors on the committees as well as magistrates (often the same people really). It was cheaper, AFAIK, as councillors just drew expenses. I expect there was an allowance after Labour altered councillor remuneration in the noughties.

    The point being that essentially such committees are apolitical.

  39. The usual way of showing ‘swings’ can be misleading. For example, if the national picture is Con 33 it is a drop of 3.3% since the 36.3% they achieved at the last GE. However, expressed as a percentage of the last GE figure it is a fall of 9%. If Lab are shown as 32% this is a gain of 3% on the 29% they previously got in simple terms but 10%compared with the previous GE result. It would not be possible for the LDs to lose 16% in many constituencies where their vote was less than that but expressed as a % of their previous vote it would be a drop of about 70%. Ukip would probably be the balancing factor picking up many of those who voted LD before (as the plague on all your houses party!).

  40. @Amber

    In general agreement until the last point: I have heard several Labour folk suggesting that all was well until Johann decided to cause all this trouble.

    This will not convince anyone. If Labour is to recover – and it is profoundly to be hoped that it does – then nothing but open public honesty is going to do the trick. As you say, the Scots are now very much ‘switched on’ and although many of those who represent Labour at Holyrood are aware of this (including Jenny Marra who has spoken very well on today’s Big Debate), some in the southern leadership appear not to be so tuned in. Including, I think, EM. My wife, not given to strong expressions of political analysis said last night of EM: “He’s still not got it, has he? He’s living on a different planet”.

  41. @ Couper 2802

    Ed donated a bag of food – Tunnock’s Tea Cakes, Porridge Oats, Shortbread – Seriously who advises him?
    ————-
    Me. :-)

  42. Just read LPWs pre-resignation description of Johann Lamont.

    A beautifully written blog:
    http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/she-isnt-up-to-it.html

    However what really made me giggle was the description of Anas Sarwar “working the room like a greased octopus”.

  43. To avoid a runoff Labour need 44% of the vote in Rotherham.

  44. Labour winning the election on 30% is surely unlikely to see the Greens taking to the streets angry that the Greens didn’t win the election. They must surely be aware that they are unlikely to hold a majority and hence either vote green in the hope that one day in the future they might become much bigger, and/or they want to see the political ground shift their way a bit.

    They must surely also be aware one of the big two parties are likely to win, and may well prefer Lab to Cons. As for UKip, a fair number also don’t seem too fussed which of Lab or Cons wins…

  45. Labour win SY PCC By-election on first preferences (50.02%!)

  46. @ Statgeek,

    I’ll err on the side of caution with this one, and give it the thumbs down.

    Generally the right policy with Populus.

    @ Couper2802,

    Why do they think Blairite Murphy one of the guys most associated with their referendum defeat

    They may have been confused by the fact that Scotland is still part of the UK?

    I mean, don’t get me wrong, considering their choice is between Neil Findlay who makes Ed Miliband look like a brilliant communicator, Sarah Boyack who has been hanging around Holyrood for years without making any discernible impression on anyone, and Jim Murphy who is Jim Murphy, I think it’s about time to welcome our new nationalist overlords.

    But they didn’t have a referendum defeat. They had a referendum victory and a post-referendum catastrophic meltdown, which is at least a theoretically recoverable catastrophe rather than a theoretically permanent one.

  47. @ Paul Guy,

    Like many others you are using UK figures – rather than the GB data measured by the pollsters. In 2010 the Tories polled 37% in GB – Labour’s figure was 29.7%.

  48. The PCC result seems rather good for Labour – and must be pretty disappointing for UKIP.

  49. Anyone else a wee bit impressed with South Yorkshire? Turnout up on 2012, and the Kippers sent packing.

    Looks like cribbing from that old Tory “Want a n*gger for your neighbour? Vote Labour!” campaign slogan but substituting in “rapist” wasn’t such a cunning plan after all.

  50. Mind you, those Doncaster results don’t look so good!

    (But I suspect many people in the Labour Party would be quite happy with an election result in which they get a plurality but Ed Miliband loses his seat in a shock Ukip surge. All the heavy intellectual lifting and party unity work of Opposition done by Miliband, the more-PR intensive job of Prime Minister goes to Burnham…)

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