YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%. It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.


273 Responses to “New YouGov GB and Scottish polls”

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  1. Estimates of turnout for SY PCC BE are about 6%.

  2. “On Tuesday, the Fiscal Affairs Scotland thinktank said Scotland could face a deficit of up to £5bn if full fiscal autonomy was devolved to Holyrood.

    Publishing an analysis of the latest North Sea oil and gas revenues, director John McLaren, a former Treasury economist and Labour special adviser, said: “The Smith commission needs to take into account the potential impact of continuing relatively low levels of North Sea revenues on Scotland’s budget, if North Sea revenues are to be part of any negotiated package.”

    “Our calculations suggest that, across a wide range of assumptions, full fiscal autonomy could lead to a significant shortfall in funding over what the current system delivers.”

    Guardian.

    It will be interesting to observe Labour’s stance at the Smith Commission now-does Jim Murphy get a say?

  3. ‘Other events have caused this drop, I don’t feel Ed M speech is the cause or even the trigger.’

    Mmmm! Labour’s drop began at the time of the conferences. There was lots of speculation on here at the time about whether it was a temporary blip. Well, it turns out it was not. Other factors (ie the Scottish mess) have served to entrench it, but Miliband’s speech, and the negative publicity it caused, combined with perceptions that DC’s was good, are undoubtedly part of the story.

  4. It’s a bit like the BBC on here: we’re past 100 comments and there is virtually nothing on the Greens!! Second YG poll in a row that there are on 7 per cent and at least level with the LDs. Surely worthy of some comment! Why is it happening now? Purely a reaction to Labour’s woes or a consequence of the publicity generated by the election debates? Or is there some other reason?

  5. ‘they’re’ for ‘there’!!!

  6. Good Morning All.
    NEWFORESTRADICAL.
    Lovely here, is it not?
    I agree that the leader’s speeches seem to have helped to make and break reputations over the years. Neil K did well in his 1985 Conference speech, but badly at Sheffield.

    Tony Blair was brilliant, at his best, IMHO.

    It is always a good idea to have a piece of paper which can be consulted, and at times, even read out verbatim.

    Douglas Jardine is reputed to have said: ‘Never mind, you have just lost the test match’ when a fielder dropped a catch offered by Bradman.

  7. “but Miliband’s speech, and the negative publicity it caused, combined with perceptions that DC’s was good, are undoubtedly part of the story.”

    OK I will go with that – both speeches were part (how much?) of the story, but the Lab leads increased all the polls following the Lab conference, but dropped sharply following the Dave C speech and never really recovered – there is so much more to it than just one speech.

    What were the other parts?

  8. NEWFOREST.

    Its just another symptom of today’s outlook by so many voters.

    Fed up with the mainstream party they supported, and its leaders, any party which offers a protest in a voice which mirrors your general philosophy will do.

    Greens’ rise =pi**ed off & frustrated lefties from Labour & LibDems.

  9. NFR

    Exactly. Should this scenario come to pass, with EM and NC running a coalition, two Europhile and very unpopular figures
    , its impossible to say what sort of civil disorder might ensue. It would be an absolute disaster for country.

    The British electorate will not allow it to happen.

  10. Sarah Boyack quite firm with John Humphrys this morning. Humphrys in particularly hoity-toity form after an encounter with a representative of the FBU.

    Humphys, known for his problems with BBC standards of impartiality and accuracy, was on safer ground with the donut/glass of wine calorie story.

  11. CL1945,

    Kinnock gave a very good speech at Sheffield, the problem was that he knocked it off the news bulletins with his little outburst.

    NFR,

    In my view they got a good bit of publicity at the Euros and have been on a slow boil ever since, sustained largely by social media presence given their supporters are largely young, middle class and technologically able.

    Why it’s happening NOW when Labour are more left wing than for a long while and left wingers perceive the need to get rid of the Tories as paramount, rather than mid term in an unpopular Labour government, I certainly couldn’t say.

  12. Miliband’s speech, and the negative publicity it caused, combined with perceptions that DC’s was good, are undoubtedly part of the story.

    I think the contrast between the two speeches was decidedly in Cameron’s favour….

    Like others i was amazed that Miliband 1) “forgot” to mention the deficit and immigration and 2) admitted as much publicly. It did seem rather careless.

    Having said all that, the odds are still on labour being the largest party next year; they need barely a 2.5% swing to achieve that. Which, if they can’t get, after 5 years of this coalition government, after what’s happened to the lib dems and the rise of UKIP, would be pathetic.

    I expect a recovery from the labour position, though I too am amazed at just how weak labour seems at the moment. There is no appetite for them at all.

    British politics, while fascinating as a spectator, is uninspiring to watch. It’s like watching two overweight old and slow boxers slugging it out in an endless bout…no wonder, snp, greens and ukip seem so attractive lately.

  13. Three very interesting polls. The daily YouGov looks more n line with the current trend than yesterdays which i suspect was a bit of an outlier, still we will see over the next few days. Polling for Labour in Scotland dire, at this rate we could see the SNP holding the balance of power after the next election. Mind I think this all points to my long held view of the 2015 election being correct

  14. “I expect a recovery from the labour position, though I too am amazed at just how weak labour seems at the moment. There is no appetite for them at all.”

    I agree with that

    “It’s like watching two overweight old and slow boxers slugging it out in an endless bout…no wonder, snp, greens and ukip seem so attractive lately.”

    and isn’t that the truth.

  15. Looking at last nights Yougov UK polling the weighting seems a bit off, but may resolve down through the crosstabs which we can’t know about, given the figures provided.

    As usual too few 2010 conservatives were polled and too many 2010 Labour, 3.4% too few conservatives and 6.1% too many Labour.

    Prior to weighting Conservatives had 467 and Labour had 512.

    Post weighting Conservatives had increased 7.3% to 501 and Labour decreased 4.7% to 488.

    On pure percentage weighting this should have been 482 Conservative and 480 Labour.

    Presumably something complex is happening with the weightings with regard to churn from 2010.

  16. As a Lab voter in 2015 I am not fazed by the polls at the moment. Imo Labour’s position wont better until they reveal their policies which they shouldn’t again imo until January 2015. They should wait until the R & S election, the Scottish Lab leadership election and also Christmas is over so as not to compete for attention to be heard.

  17. According to the party political identifiers of yesterdays Uk Yougov – 54 people self identifed as being SNP supporters from the Scottish sample of 179, but 48% of that sample stated a SNP VI, 86 people. There’s a potential 32 to win back for Labour.

    Also according to those identifiers 625 of the panel identifed as being Labour supporters but this only translated to 512 in current VI. Seems like theres a fair few Labour waverers out there.

    On the other hand the Conservative supporters on the panel were 488 and this translated to 467, so theres plenty to play for on all sides.

  18. @NFR

    “It’s a bit like the BBC on here: we’re past 100 comments and there is virtually nothing on the Greens!! Second YG poll in a row that there are on 7 per cent and at least level with the LDs. Surely worthy of some comment! Why is it happening now? Purely a reaction to Labour’s woes or a consequence of the publicity generated by the election debates? Or is there some other reason?”

    If you watched QT yesterday you might have a sense of it. I’m a Lab member and will campaign and vote for Lab next year. But if I’d arrived from Mars and was asked to choose between the grasp of the facts, good sense and compassionate views expressed by Caroline Lucas and the platitudes and prejudices of Tristram Hunt there would be no contest.

  19. CRISLANE1945
    “Douglas Jardine is reputed to have said: ‘Never mind, you have just lost the test match’ when a fielder dropped a catch offered by Bradman.”

    He also had the strategy to beat the Aussies despite Bradman! Mind, we almost lost a Dominion.

  20. i like jardine…tough minded and totally focused on victory…wish we had more people like that now

  21. I think Labour’s problem is not saying anything controversial. By worrying too much about attacks from the Conservatives, they have closed down all possible areas of attack.

    But the problem is the voters are uninterested in that approach and have drifted away. What is needed to get back in the game is to say something sharply different from the consensus line and revel in the ensuing vigorous debate. That would get the story back to Labour vs the Coalition. Any other narrative is terminal for Labour’s prospects.

  22. Peter Crawford

    Absolutely!

  23. I’m still wondering how Labour can still be projected with an absolute majority in Westminster, with a SNP landslide in Scotland and the Tories likely ahead in the popular vote in England…

  24. Hal

    Agree. Lab looking increasingly like noolab triangulators and that inspires nobody.

  25. MRN

    @”Labour are more left wing than for a long while”

    But that is a very subjective thing.

    That may be your view, but for many on the left it clearly isn’t.

  26. MF,

    “I’m still wondering how Labour can still be projected with an absolute majority in Westminster, with a SNP landslide in Scotland and the Tories likely ahead in the popular vote in England…”

    What d’you mean, ‘projected’?

  27. @NFR

    Labou’s recent decline started when Douglas Carswell announced his defection to UKIP in August, well before the Conferences.

    The conference then increased the rate of decline.

  28. Marco

    The answer is Labour are ahead in England. Slightly.

  29. @Hal

    I agree Lab needs to do that. I don’t however think Labour’s current stance is motivated by fear but by division. There are too many triangulists in the shadow cabinet, and I suspect some who actually believe that guff.

    What EM needs to do is take control. This shouldn’t be difficult as everything that has happened recently validates the view that a more left of centre approach would chime with the voters.

  30. Is it just me (….it might well be!) or is the bemusement of a lot of posters on here as to EM’s bad ratings with the public easy to answer? If YouGov (or any other of the venerable pollsters out there) asked the public (not just us geeks on here) “Tell me 1 thing you know about Ed Miliband?” wouldn’t the overwhelming top answer be something like “he’s the guy who went against his Brother to become leader”. I challenge any on here to speculate about an answer that would come above this! Given what the average family member/voter would think about some one who’d stab their closest family member in the back to get something, I ask again why any bemusement at all??
    Writing this I realise now that no2 on that list (and probably closing fas!) of things they know about EM would probably be something like “Isn’t he’s the guy that nobody really likes”
    Case closed, move on. He’s unpopular and that’s not going to change.

  31. The right of primogeniture is well inscribed in the Labour Party constitution.

  32. @Floating Voter

    “What were the other parts?”

    Some guesses:

    – UKIP taking their first seat (Midlands and North VI has dropped slightly for Lab and risen for UKIP)

    – Labour’s Scottish VI reaching the London media

    – Lamont resigning and just adding another little slice of negative news

    In that order.

  33. @ Liz H
    “Imo Labour’s position wont better until they reveal their policies which they shouldn’t again imo until January 2015”

    Yes, I agree with that. We all know that any opposition party exposing their ‘best’ policies far out from the election risk having them stolen by the Governing party.

    @ Nostra
    “Given what the average family member/voter would think about some one who’d stab their closest family member in the back to get something, I ask again why any bemusement at all??”

    When did the UK agree to a rule where fratricide was the order of the day ?

    In case anybody is interested, two Tory Councillors defected to Labour this week. Cllrs Glenis Simms & Cheryl Billingham from Dudley both jumped ship – can’t imagine most people doing that if they think they will be winning the next election.

    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2014/10/30/dudley-tories-defect-to-labour-in-shock-move/

  34. @Guymonde, Raf

    I agree up to a point. The safety-first approach made sense when the main threat came from the Conservatives. But that isn’t true any more. Labour’s main opponents are now UKIP, Green, SNP and Won’t Vote. The strategy should change accordingly.

  35. @Hal

    I agree but the problem for Labour is they have had no radical mood music – so changing now when they have established themselves as Tory-lite is too late, especially with a hostile press. You can’t fatten a pig on market day.

    They have to hope their cautious approach enables them to limp home in May. Their advantage is the Tories are in an equally bad way.

  36. Salmond’s leadership rating in Ipsos-Mori poll is more than Cameron, Clegg and Miliband combined.
    He was demonised by the press and his opponents during the campaign but Pressman and his friends clearly failed. Maybe they will fail demonising Ed M as well.

  37. @GuyMonde

    I agree with your take on last night’s QT: if there had been a clapometer in the room then Lucas would have won by a country mile, with Horowitz and Kramer about equal in second place, Hunt and Patterson trailing in a distant 4th and 5th respectively. The last two just seemed intent on trotting out their respective party lines and bickering with each other – not terribly engaging. Horowitz, of course, is not a politician and just laid in to all and sundry, which was naturally popular, but the two women seemed to resonate with the audience in a way that the representatives of the main two parties could only dream about.

    That being said, it is very unlikely that anything that happens on QT will ever result in a change in VI poll results, never mind any actual election…

  38. @couper

    That’s a different dynamic (IMHO). The London press badmouthing a Scottish leader doesn’t necessarily equate to poor ratings with Scottish voters.

    I think it would be similar in the North of England, but for UKIP (I think they will scare a few folk in 2015).

  39. @ Guymonde, Hal

    ‘Agree. Lab looking increasingly like noolab triangulators and that inspires nobody.’

    @RAF

    ‘There are too many triangulists in the shadow cabinet, and I suspect some who actually believe that guff.
    What EM needs to do is take control. ‘

    I agree with you all. I would add that IMO the strategic decision to ‘shave a little off Osborne’s austerity’ is both politically and economically flawed.

    For example, I wonder why it was thought a good idea for Ed Miliband to announce yesterday, the creation of national Oyster cards. All very worthy no doubt but the polling suggests overwhelming support for transport to be brought back into democratic ownership…

    So the timing was (not that it will be much noticed) – the LP and LiS will ‘fight and fight’ to restore the electorate’s trust … with the introduction of Oyster cards…

  40. The tables for the YouGov Scottish poll are now up:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/56mwcrrg3d/Times-results-141030-scotland-day-1.pdf

    (the heading says ‘day1’ so there may be more to follow)

    To expand the headline Westminster figures:

    Con 15%

    Lab 27%

    Lib Dem 4%

    SNP 43%

    UKIP 6%

    Green 4%

    15% are non-voters, low for rUK but actually higher than MORI’s telephone poll figures, which is surprising as it would normally be the other way round. However we know that YouGov’s Scottish panel is untypical in some ways. It’s more English than average for example, so it could be the non-Scots born are more uncertain in their responses.

    We also have YouGov’s figures for Holyrood:

    Constituency:

    Con 12% (-3)
    Lab 28% (-4)
    Lib Dem 5% (+1)
    SNP 46% (+6)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SSP 0% (-1)
    UKIP 4% (+1)

    Regional:

    Con 12% (-3)
    Lab 26% (-4)
    Lib Dem 4% (+1)
    SNP 38% (+3)
    Green 10% (+1)
    SSP 3% (-)
    UKIP 6% (+1)

    Non-voters at 13% less than Westminster, due to more DKs for there. All changes are from just before the referendum (15-17 Sep). Fieldwork on this poll was 27-30 Oct.

  41. PRESSMAN
    Lefty

    “Yes, Maureen Lipman wasn’t someone [I] had on the radar, but there are plenty lined up over the coming months. And they won’t be just celebs turning away from Labour, they will be endorsing Cameron too”
    _____________

    Absolutely spot on PRESSMAN there are plenty of celebs ready to endorse Cameron.

    In fact Cameron will be endorsed by celebs from the land, air and sea….roll out Skippy, Big bird and Flipper.

    PRESSMAN what a plan….. what a guy…..give me a high five.

  42. I think the narrative may start to change after Rochester if UKIP win there.

    For all his self-confidence and bluster, and even with the press spinning for him, Cameron’s situation is even worse than Miliband’s.

  43. The main problem with nationalism, regionalism, localism is the fact that there are no ‘natural’ limits to how far the division goes until it reaches the individual.

    A Hobbesian ‘war of all against all’ is not a good place to end at unless your aim is to fragment all social feeling.

  44. I know what Anthony said about crossbreaks in the previous post but I think those Scottish polls were entirely predictable because there had been so many crossbreaks saying the same thing.

    I think Scotland is the biggest factor now in making a hung parliament. I’m quite surprised how cautious the Nats on here have been with that polling- can’t see a load of obvious factors that would easily turn it around for Labour.

    The only unknown really is that in only 13 Labour seats are SNP the nearest challenger so will incumbency and uncertainty over the ABT vote save them in the rest?

  45. @ NewForestRadical
    ” virtually nothing on the Greens!! 7 per cent is there some other reason?”
    To put the Greens up from say 3 or 4% to 7 in a 1000 poll needs about 30 people to say “Green” who didn’t before.
    How many people in 1000 have become so jaded with all the hype based on MoE sized shifts in the polls, all the ‘leaders will have to go’ ‘divisive UKIP have no policies’ LibDems wreck coalition again’ so that when they are asked “who do you intend to vote for, they say “Green” in exasperation rather than true political protest?
    How are the Monster Raving Loonies doing?

  46. “The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin” … of error.

  47. Gazprom

    The main problem with unionism is the fact that there are no ‘natural’ limits to how far the unification goes until it reaches the entire planet.

  48. @ mrnameless
    “Estimates of turnout for SY PCC BE are about 6%.”
    On that basis, a UKIP win, then.

  49. Celebrity backing is always a sure fire winner. Take for example 1997 when Cilla Black, William Roache and Paul Daniels backed the Tories.

    Or 2005 when Frederick Forsyth, Sir Tim Rice, Clarissa Dickson Wright, Marco Pierre White, Antony Worrall Thompson (!), Tony Hadley, Julian Fellowes, Eddie Jordan, Nicky Haslam, Bruce Oldfield, Bill Wyman, Anneka Rice and Jim Davidson all publicly supported the Tories.

    It can’t fail.

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