YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%. It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.


273 Responses to “New YouGov GB and Scottish polls”

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  1. @Catmanjeff,

    We accepted it just fine between 2005 and 2010.

    I think 1/3 of the popular vote is probably the cut off though. Anything below 33.33% probably triggers a sort of siren in consciousness.

  2. I must be sad because I’m watching QT.
    Going back to discussion yesterday about the Mayor of Calais and her allegation about benefits, where the comparative evidence is not very clear or well-publicised. Susan Kramer says they get twice as much in France, DD says yes but they have to wait. Tristram Hunt says it’s outrageous that Poles send money home. Owen Paterson says we need more globalisation. Caroline Lucas focuses on the plight of asylum seekers.
    I have to say that the LD response was the best on that issue but CL’s overall performance made me think I’d vote Green if they had a chance. Hunt was predictably awful on almost every question.

  3. Eh up! Looks like PMan’s right about The Sun lining up A-listers to shoot down Labour.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Sun_Politics/status/527851818022625281

    Phew! 10Megatonne first strike.

  4. OLDNAT

    Maybe the VOW’S were meant for NAC.

    I’m hearing the SNP have won the seat but no figures as of yet.

  5. “Could you accept a majority Government based on 34-35% of the vote?”

    Like 2005?

  6. @RogerH

    I thought 2005 was grossly disproportionate and too far for me personally.

  7. Phil Haines

    Hey! You’re more than welcome to come and join the party! There’s no bar though – you have to bring your own good news.

  8. Grace McLean (SNP) is the new councillor for the North Coast. Drew Cochrane was 2nd. Toni Dawson (Conservative) 3rd

  9. Former News editor Drew Cochrane finished 2nd, 279 votes behind SNP’s Grace McLean who is new councillor for North Coast ward.

  10. Allan Christie

    I think the figures I have are for 1st preference votes (change from 2012 in brackets)

    SNP 38.7% (-6.2%)
    Ind 22.8% (+6.5%)
    Con 21.5% (+3.1%)
    Lab 13.2% (-5.2%)

    Socialist stood only in 2012 (2%) : UKIP stood only this time (3.6%)

  11. @CATMANJEFF

    I don’t see 35% (or even 30%) as significantly less democratic than 45% when awarding complete control of government to just one party. Unfortunately the voters chose to reject even the most modest of reforms to the system so it seems we’re stuck with it for the duration.

  12. GUYMONDE
    I must be sad because I’m watching QT.

    Nowadays I listen to it on Radio 5, which at least reduces the likelihood of the TV being destroyed by friendly fire.

  13. Phil Haines

    But Tories are well behind Lab here. Why are you lot so carp at shoving them down into 3rd place as well?

    “It’s a poor workman that blames his own tools”, as the old adage goes. Still it does seem that you chose to pick a few tools.

  14. OLDNAT

    Cheers..Not a bad result for the SNP in what is a Tory area of North Ayrshire. Labour rock bottom and could had held the balance of power on the council had they won.

    SNP now largest party on council again.

  15. Lets recap.

    Two local by elections in Scotland now and the SNP have won both.

    Two Westminster polls both showing the SNP well ahead of Labour.

    Nicola Sturgeon trusted by nearly half of Scots and a country mile ahead of her nearest opponent.

    SNP well ahead in VI for Holyrood. (Ipsos)

    SNP now 3rd largest party in UK in terms of members.

    Get me a new trumpet!!

  16. Being the saddo geek that I am, I took the liberty of running the YG Scottish poll through the EC site and looking at the seat changes (+39 to SNP, so lots of seats says it).

    Then I added in the majorities that said seats had in 2010, and coloured those majorities with the colour of the party that came second.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/scot-seats.png

    I’m not convinced that some of those 39 would become SNP on such a vote (i.e. the concentration is to hell). Charles Kennedy is a prime example. Danny Alexander less so, but with Lab coming 2nd in those seats in 2010, what’s in store for them in 2015?

    All interesting. More so if you see them sorted by majority:

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/scot-seats-maj.png

    I need a new hobby…

  17. Before retiring:

    Sinn Fein might take their seats.

    That might help to make or break a ministry.

  18. really terrible polls for labour, i am sorry to say to my leftie friends.

  19. @Phil Haines

    “You may regard polls that put the Conservatives ahead as cause for mutual partying, but I don’t.”

    For what it’s worth, Labour still get 10-15 more seats. Lab / SNP coalition or Lab / Con coalition. A Lab / Lib / SNP coalition would have a majority of around 50 seats (and about 43% of the national vote, compared to the 2010 coalition with 59%).

  20. “let’s not please get into party politics on this site”

    So don’t.

  21. Phil Haines started with his mawkish sentimentalism. so i answered in kind, but i am more interested in the polls and what drives sentiments.

    Given Miliband’s very weak personal ratings, are these not a fit subject of discussion and debate on a polling website? Views about Miliband are clearly a factor in the relatively weak position of labour….no?

  22. I’m interested in where AW puts the [snip] in JP’s post.

  23. In the YouGov poll in Scotland Ed is 15 % trusted 80% not trusted. That is really bad. I don’t think a Labour leader has every been unpopular in Scotland. I think even Blair was popular. I think that will be a big problem from Labour in May

  24. My comments about Miliband seem to be moderated. But he is a serious problem for labour. no question. there could be a tipping point soon. The labour vi has been sinking fast in the last 2 months.

  25. Given that UNS is fairly redundant now across GB, I wonder if any betting consortium has thought of commissioning extensive polling at constituency level, not publishing the results (naturally), and making a killing on the May 7 outcome.

  26. I wonder how left-wing voters in England will react to all of this?

    If they want a Labour govt they are going to have to achieve it by themselves. So will the flirtation with the Greens end sending them rushing back to Labour, or will they think “they are all the same” UKIP-style and continue to peel away?

  27. Old Nat,

    How would they make a killing? presumably by putting money on attractive odds, but that money would change those odds….

    the secret consortium’s secret bets will already have been priced in… lots of people have been making lots of money on bets, inc. the man who put £800k on a NO result in the referendum. Most people who make money are not known, so i suppose there could a large number of “secret” consortia

  28. Candy

    “I wonder how left-wing voters in England will react to all of this? ”

    That’s an interesting question. Do you think these Scottish polls (and their implications) will get much coverage in England, or will it be treated as some irrelevant Scots thing?

  29. James Peel

    I’m not a betting man, but from my occasional wanderings onto PB, I understood that the key was to put money on at particular odds, then cash them in when the numbers change. Isn’t that how all inside knowledge betting works?

    For all we know, someone might be making money by using constituency polling results info, already.

  30. @ Oldnat

    ‘ Do you think these Scottish polls (and their implications) will get much coverage in England, or will it be treated as some irrelevant Scots thing?’

    The Scottish polls are getting a great deal of coverage from the press hostile to Ed Miliband and the LP. The focus is less on Scotland and rather more on ‘meltdown’ for Labour.

  31. @ OldNat
    “Do you think these Scottish polls (and their implications) will get much coverage in England, or will it be treated as some irrelevant Scots thing?”

    Are you kidding ? Sky news has it running on their ticker thingy & the papers are full of it !

    The press coverage given to these two polls would make an uninterested observer think there was an election round the corner instead of in 6 months time. There will be many changes between now & then, starting with the PCC election result on Friday followed by the Rochester & Strood by-election later this month.

  32. Bramley

    I’ve largely given up watching news programmes at the moment. consultant said to steer clear of things that might raise my blood pressure.

  33. Very wise :-)

  34. Syzygy

    I’m not surprised that these media would report it in such a way.

    To answer Candy’s question, however, is there anything in the coverage that might persuade those in England, more hostile to the Tories than Labour, that they should rally round the pale pink banner?

  35. @Oldnat

    I can only speak from my own reaction but it certainly has that effect on me. Regardless of the pale pink banner, the increased prospect of another 5y of blue government concentrates the mind wonderfully.

  36. Syzygy

    Time for Labour to resurrect England Arise! as their campaign song?

  37. Oldnat

    I can think of worse ways to resurrect ABT .. but a hefty dose of red dye would be needed for the banner if there was to be a real arising (IMO).

  38. Lefty

    Yes, Maureen Lipman wasn’t someone [I] had on the radar, but there are plenty lined up over the coming months. And they won’t be just celebs turning away from Labour, they will be endorsing Cameron too.

  39. Old Nat,

    you can only trade positions on betfair exchange as far as i know. That’s an excellent resource and source of information for punters.

  40. Labour will edge the largest party, my lefty friends, but the weakness of their position at this stage is remarkable and surprising.

    Betfair is excellent on all this. The pot for “most seats”, at £600k, is quite a sizable and liquid market…labour are 1.79 and con 2.3…that could change if the tories can have a sustainable lead (for at least a month average)..but i think it’s a good indicator of market opinion and the state of play.

  41. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 30th Oct – Con 33%, Lab 32%, UKIP 15%, Greens 7%, LD 7%, SNP/PCY 5%, Others 1%,

    Cons well ahead amongst young voters in this one – 2 days running now, believe it or not

    Lab with the same poor retention rate as the Cons at 76%

    But

    Lab have improved their Don’t Know/Won’t vote situation against the Cons and Red Dems as strong as ever contributing 8% of the Lab score

    Cons ahead today because of a unusually high 2010 LD switch and the young voters

    Greens taking 1.5% of Lab 2010 vote and 3.5% of LD 2010
    vote to add to their existing 2% to make 7%

    UKIP taking 6.5% of 2010 Con vote 2% of 2010 Lab vote and 2% of 2010 LD vote. 1.5% from Others + plus their 3% from 2010, making 15%

    APP -22

  42. Labour’s retention rate, given that they’ve been in opposition all this time, is appalling. How can the tories, who have been in government for 4 and a half years, have the same retention rate as Labour? That is extraordinary.

  43. @Lurker

    In the medium term the SNP can keep both camps happy by delivering Devo Max/ Federalism. All the polling evidence is that this is popular with 50-60% of the electorate.

    Most of the pro-Independence wing of the SNP understand the need to “gan canny” as we say in Newcastle for the next few years. The ones who don’t (Hi Jim) are sitting outside the party sniping anyway but even they bit their tongues during the referendum.

    You are right that the SNP will not continue to poll 40-50% forever but equally mistaken if you think this decline will be before the delivery of extensive new powers – an issue which unites pro and anti independence SNP voters.

    Once a new political framework is in place, it won’t be a surprise to see further major changes in voting intention.

  44. JamesPeel
    “that could change if the tories can have a sustainable lead (for at least a month average)”

    The Cons have this 1 point lead for all of one single poll.

    Calm down man & ask yourself when the last Con lead lasted for at least a month.

    Oh and give it a rest with the ‘lefty’ remarks please – I’m fairly sure they are not within in the comments policy.

  45. And quit it with Mili. I know it makes you feel big to belittle him but we don’t call Cameron Dave without getting modded. Fair’s fair.

  46. i disagree with the comment about Ed M conference speech being the cause of Lab collapse

    I was looking at the poll the last time Lab had a 38% on October 1st, which was the week after the speech. There is no sign of collapse there. The 2010 retention was 1.5% higher, 1% more 2010 LD and a big lead amongst young voters, giving 2.5% more

    Note the SNP were also polling slightly above Lab then

    The following day Dave C speech lifted the Cons votes and Lab slumped to 34%

    Now in the 4 weeks since then Cons have also slipped to 31 to 33%, but Lab have not risen, instead have also dropped to 32 to 34%

    Other events have caused this drop, I don’t feel Ed M speech is the cause or even the trigger.

  47. Very encouraging Poll-but the Mids/Wales Crossbreak looks suspect.

    Wait & see if we are in Robin Hood Land yet.

    DC must be thanking his lucky stars for EM just now, and worrying more about Jim Murphy than Miliband Minor.

    All eyes on the Smith Commission now-presumably GB will be told to pipe down & Labour will agree to anything they want :-)

  48. SYZYGY

    @” the increased prospect of another 5y of blue government concentrates the mind wonderfully.”

    Yes I agree-we can dream………..and sometimes they come true :-)

  49. James Peel,

    Imagine that you’re the leader of one of the two large(ish) UK political parties. You hear that polls say they are now neck and neck – one having lost 3 or 4 points since the last GE and the other having gained 3 or 4. Which party would you prefer to be leader of?

    (By the way, being neck and neck means that one of the parties will have enough seats to govern the country while the other won’t.)

    Think about it. Take your time – it’s a difficult question.

  50. @RogerH

    ‘The net result is that Labour must still be odds-on to win in May.’

    You might be right, though I have my doubts, but if they win at all, it’s looking as though they would have next to no real mandate. It would be a bit of a nightmare actually: a prime minister very few people trust, elected on 30 odd per cent of the vote, facing still major economic and social challenges and disgruntled electorate.

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