YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%. It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.


273 Responses to “New YouGov GB and Scottish polls”

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  1. With the Scottish polls it may well be that the Tories don’t need to lead by six-seven points to get the most seats as is generally assumed…

  2. Blimey, crossover !

  3. So, another 7% for the Greens. And the BBC say Greens can’t take part in Leaders’ debates because Green support hasn’t risen. Odd that, when it was 2-3% in the early spring.

  4. Some analysis I did before the YouGov poll (updated after it) on Scotland, including why Ipsos-MORI had the SNP higher that everyone was expecting:

    It’s worth noting that the last time (that I’m aware of) that Ipsos-MORI did Scottish polls (in the months following the election in 2010), they tended to show the Tories 3 or 4 points lower than YouGov and the SNP higher by a similar amount. We can’t be sure if that’s still the case now until YouGov (on whose data my number crunching is based) do their own poll, but this picture is at least consistent with consistency of house effects.

    Certainly the two pollsters’ methodologies are completely different. YouGov poll online and prompt for the main parties (including for voters living in Scotland, the SNP) or “Another party” and include all voters besides DKs, non-voters and refusals, with weighting by party ID. Ipsos-MORI poll by phone, do not prompt for any party and include only those “certain to vote”, with no political weighting. From the tables, the turnout filter doesn’t seem significant. Not using political weighting, on the other hand, can lead to exaggerated volatility. This too could explain part of the difference – time will tell.

    http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-polling-analysis-and-what.html?spref=tw

  5. Labour meltdown continues….! :-)

  6. @JackSheldon

    Except that if the Scottish situation is that bad for Labour it suggests that they must be performing better in E&W than the GB poll suggests…

  7. Jesus Labour are behind the Tories? AGAIN!!

    Another Scottish poll showing Labour in meltdown. The only comfort they can take is that they (according) to this poll is that they will hold 12 seats which by my calculation is 3 times more than the STV poll.
    I reckon many in the Labour camp will be doing cartwheels tonight in celebration.

  8. On the basis that all publicity is good publicity I think (if they can avoid an acrimonious debate) Labour may well recover a bit up until they get a new Leader so we won’t really have a clear picture till close to Christmas.

    Sarwars resignation clears the way for Jim Murphy but might upset some who see it as a London take over. I am not saying it is London v Edinburgh or MP’s v MSP’s but it could be how it is perceived and become the narrative.

    One thing that might be a problem is that all three candidates are talking about healing divisions and uniting the Party while as far as I can see up until this week all of them along with the rest of Labour in Scotland have strenuously denying that they were anything over than united and moving forward.

    Surely all these issues just didn’t appear a fortnight ago!

    Peter.

  9. This might put the average into hung parliament territory tomorrow….that always causes mass excitement!

  10. @Lurker FPT

    As anecdotal evidence (not plural of data etc) I know of several people who like what the SNP have done at Holyrood but are against independence so have never voted SNP (many ex Lib Dems in this category). They have said to me post referendum that they are now intending to vote SNP as independence is off the table for now.

    Equally of several people I know who were 2011 SNP voter / 2014 No voters there is no mood to switch to pro-Union parties as these people were already willing to vote SNP even when it risked independence which they opposed.

    I personally am not at all surprised to find that SNP minus independence (in short term at least) polls higher than an SNP promising independence.

    As others have said attitudes to Devo-Max in different parties may affect the permanence or otherwise of this uptick in SNP support but these sort of numbers totally fit with my experience on the ground speaking to people.

  11. @Ken

    The national position is that Labour have slowly declined a persistent VI of about 33%.

    The Conservatives have not benefited in the slightest (the five polls of 2014 they averaged 31.8, the last five have been 32.2).

    The Labour Conservative duopoly is dying fast.

  12. CATMANJEFF……..Plenty of time to go, Tories up, Labour down, trending. :-)

  13. I saw EM in Glasgow tonight. People were just waking past him and to be honest I don’t think anyone knew who he was. One of the taxi drivers outside Central Station thought he was a Jehovah’s Witness.

    Poor guy might as well had been in Addis Ababa.

  14. @Ken

    If the Tories keep the storming pace up of gaining 0.4% every 10 months, they be in power at some point in the future…….if Labour stand still, the Tories need about 10 years to get the 4% lead they need for a majority.

  15. It looks like it would be a good idea (understood your reasoning Number Cruncher) to split the difference between YG and Ipsos as a rough guide. I understand we will get an Ashcroft sooner or later (source OldNat) so will look out for that one.

    In the GB YG one, it’s all very stable really with just a few going to Green from LD and Lab. Nothing to get excited about. Scotland is very interesting (not their politics where I am concerned, just the results).

  16. If Labour ‘just’ win in over votes and seats – will Miliband keep his job? I get the feeling Labour might get stuck with someone they don’t think will win their next election, why? Because if they are a minority government (they won’t have a coalition with SNP or Lib Dems, it will be policy by policy decisions) then losing their leader could mean a snap election.

    It’ll give SNP quite a big dump of ammunition if the FPTP vote has them ahead on votes and behind on seats though!

  17. catmanjeff,

    “The Labour Conservative duopoly is dying fast.”

    You’re right! They’re already down to just 607 seats between them – according to Calculus based on tonight’s YG – with Cons on 290 and Lab on 317. At this rate they’ll only have 600 out of 650 between them any day now! Yes, dying fast.

  18. Howard

    “Scotland is very interesting (not their politics where I am concerned, just the results).”

    Can I just say England is very interesting (not their politics where I am concerned, just the results).

  19. Wow!

    Lab and Con on 65%. Con above Lab. Lib up from 6%. Greens maintaining 7%. UKIP down. All on a total of 94%, which might mean a >40% SNP poll (the last two have been 95% and SNP sub-40%).

    Lab and Con on course for my 575 or less combined seats prediction (who will give me odds?).

  20. Jim Murphy looks and sounds like a competent leader, he talks like he has a plan and is capable of implementing it.
    Let’s hope the Scottish Labour Party elect him.

  21. @Newhouset

    If 65% of the vote gets 95% of the seats, I would suggest the system is grossly disproportionate.

    Broadly the public won’t support such a system long term in my view. I fully expect a large minority of UKIP voters very annoyed that their seats won for the share of the vote will be a poor return.

  22. Surely all these issues just didn’t appear a fortnight ago!
    ———
    Less than a fortnight ago, actually. Johann Lamont throwing her toys out of the pram caused the damage. It’ll be up to Sarah, Jim & Neil to start fixing the mess that she made!

  23. Ewen Lightfoot

    I totally agree. Jim Murphy has a plan.

  24. @Statgeek

    I share your view that Con + Lab will have a low number of seats in 2015.

    When FPTP stops delivering working majorities (very likely for some time I think), the game is up for it.

  25. Amber

    These issues started “less than a fortnight ago”.

    I believe you! Scots didn’t start noticing anything in politics till Johann resigned.

    We’ve all been pretty apolitical during the last couple of years.

  26. ON
    And any plan is better than no plan at all!

  27. @Newhouset

    I meant 93% not 95%.

    (Although it make no difference to the point..)

  28. Alan Christie
    Do they allow Jehova’s Witness’s Addis Ababa?

    I saw him on the news tonight and thought someone had given him 2 black eyes. Sleepless nights I suspect.

    Still everything to play for in May and those who poured scorn on me and others 12 months ago, when I and others said that at that stage Labour should have been 20 points ahead then, in order for them to be certain of winning in 2015, w ere wrong. Not many, ‘labour is a shoe in’ type comments of late either. It’s very exciting and so will election night be.

  29. Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

  30. Ewen Lightfoot

    I have a plan!

    We should take all those Trident warheads, dump them in the cellars of the House of Commons, and detonate them next Wednesday.

    Is that better than not having such a plan?

  31. @ Old Nat

    There were post referendum polls done by Panelbase & Opinium which, for Labour, were okay & very good respectively. These new ones were done in the wake of Johann Lamont’s strop & they’re horrible for Labour.

  32. Northumbrianscot
    The point you make is why the SNP could end up in trouble. They have attracted your friends by facing both ways as an anti-independence separatist party. I am not surprised that some are Lib Dems.

    I do not see how you keep those people on board whilst satisfying the more headline activists if the SNP do well enough to make independence seem a realistic possibility.

  33. Hardline, not headline

  34. ROBERT NEWARK

    Aye the brouhaha lot appear to be missing. The election will be very interesting with the SNP and UKIP looking to make some substantial gains although I still expect the kippers to get smoked.

    I’m looking forward to the election and the channel changer already has my name on it.
    ……
    “Do they allow Jehova’s Witness’s in Addis Ababa?”
    ____

    I can’t see why not? Lovely people but I wouldn’t like to be stuck with one. ;-)

  35. AMBER STAR
    @ Old Nat
    “There were post referendum polls done by Panelbase & Opinium which, for Labour, were okay & very good respectively. These new ones were done in the wake of Johann Lamont’s strop & they’re horrible for Labour”
    _____

    I only saw one which had the SNP a few points ahead of Labour. I expect some of the increased SNP VI will be down to the Labour coup but I think you’re clutching at straws if you are attributing the apparent collapse of Labour solely on Lamont standing down,

  36. @Oldnat,

    I don’t think you’d need all the Trident warheads…

    Unless of course you planted them under Eric Pickles seat. In which case you might need the extra penetration..

  37. Amber

    Statgeek’s crossbreak analysis and Number Cruncher’s demographically weighted treatment of them both indicate that the shift started happening prior to Johann’s stroppy departure.

    I can understand your wish that the shift is simply based on her flouncing out, but such evidence as we have for the period between those early post-indyref polls and today, doesn’t support your thesis.

  38. 37.9% turnout at North Coast by-election, Returning Officer Elma Murray has announced at Largs Academy

  39. Neil A

    Damn! I knew someone would find a flaw in my plan. Though it does prove my point that having “a plan” may not be the cleverest thing in the world. :-)

  40. Fascinating polling, this is more or less the result I expect next May, Cons a little ahead in national vote, but not the largest party, and one big complicated kerfuffle about forming a new government.

    For some time I’ve been wondering about what UKIP’s ceiling might – assuming they have one – not previously assuming it would be that which they got at the EU elections this year, but now, they seem to be wobbling their way up to it.

    As for disproportionality – most FPTP elections seem to award parties with 40%+ with vastly more seats than they ought to get, unless the opposition is very much undivided. These days with things so fragmented, it’s even easier to get a lot of seats for a lower overall VI.

  41. ON
    Re plans , there’s always the exception that proves the rule, and I suspect that in your usual inimitable way you have hit upon it!
    As to Murphy, he looks like a winner.
    I’m off to hospital soon by the way, for similar reasons to you, although cancer related rather than cardio-vascular.

  42. @ Amber Star

    There were post referendum polls done by Panelbase & Opinium which, for Labour, were okay & very good respectively.

    Could you post a link for the Opinium, either here or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_individual_constituencies#Constituent_Country_Polls, please?

    Ta muchly.

  43. Right now it does look like SNP may well be invited to either join a coalition or support a government with C&S. I can only wonder what they might want in return. Another independence referendum?

  44. Allan Christie

    Word I had a couple of weeks ago from SNP activists was somewhat depressing – lots of “Tories” who formerly voted SNP for the council saying that “they didn’t want the SNP to have another excuse to call a referendum”. (Although NAC didn’t have that power, last time I looked).

    It’ll be interesting to see the comparative 1st preference shares in the ward this time c/f 2012.

  45. Seems a lot being read into a little here. Labour may perform poorly in Scotland with the SNP but not as poorly as the Tories will perform in England with UKIP. Also whereas Labour may take seats off the Tories it won’t be the Tories taking seats off Labour. The net result is that Labour must still be odds-on to win in May.

  46. My current seats prediction would be something like this:

    Con 285
    Lab 275
    LD 30
    SNP 25
    UKIP 10
    PC 3
    Green 2
    Speaker 1
    NI 18

  47. @ Old Nat

    I guess we’ll just have to wait & see where things are at next time there’s a Scottish poll.

  48. Ewen Lightfoot

    Hope everything goes well with you. Neither of us would want to see the other disappear from these boards. (The rest of you who wouldn’t mind our disappearance can shut up! :-) )

  49. @KeithP

    Could you accept a majority Government based on 34-35% of the vote?

    (On a 65% turnout that means just 23% of the electorate voted for them).

    I can’t accept that as being democratically legitimate.

  50. Amber

    “I guess we’ll just have to wait & see where things are at next time there’s a Scottish poll.”

    We will. Then we’ll need to wait again till the next time, then …..

    Still May 7 poll may give us a clue!

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