YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%. It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.


273 Responses to “New YouGov GB and Scottish polls”

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  1. Could this be a resignation issue for Mrs. May?

    Doubtful; but it doesn’t do her future prospects any good.

  2. Apologies: I was answering my own question in case anyone thought something else was missing…….

  3. @Oldnat

    That seems the sensible choice. I would have thought a Home Office civil servant will be phoning round Australian and Canadian child protection experts as we speak.

  4. @Old Nat

    Is there nobody from your neck of the woods with appropriate knowledge of child abuse issues n’s with the authority to lead such an enquiry. I was just saying to my wife that a is less likelikely to have links to the establishment.

  5. “Appointing someone from another country would seem to the obvious choice”

    Someone from another city would be a start.

  6. RogerH

    ““But it would be wrong to try and make any party political capital out of any of this”

    Yes it would, all this second resignation does is illustrate how difficult it is to get somebody of real standing who is not also a member of the establishment. I cannot see it having any significant effect on Mrs May’s career IMO.

    Looking at your final partisan comment, the opinion polls indicate that Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem leaderships are all considered out of touch, hence the rise of UKIP, Greens and SNP in the polls.

  7. @Howard (5.36)

    Mrs May is certainly not coming out of it well on BBC news 24. IMO this will become political as it is obvious the Home Office have not done due diligence.

  8. If the Tories are the largest party and they have 40+ seats, will the SNP be prepared to go into a coalition/pact with the Cons if they are offered big enough concessions on DevoMax?
    I imagine ex Labour voters will want an unequivocal answer.

  9. Peter Bell

    I’m sure there are – but a number will have political links to (or against) a UK party, which would probably not be appropriate given the mess that has already been made of finding an appropriate person.

  10. Valerie

    If the Tories are the largest party but with no realistic chance of forming a majority coalition with anyone else, will Labour be prepared to go into a coalition/pact with the Cons if they are offered big enough ministerial cars?

    I imagine all voters will want an unequivocal answer.

  11. @ Peter Bell

    To get someone suitable is virtually impossible and would they want the job considering how much the journos will delve into every corner of their life history up to press?

  12. PETER BELL

    I am sure she is, but I do not see it as a major issue for her once the dust settles. Batams has got right, who in their right mind would want the job.

  13. @ Spearmint

    Incidentally, if I may ask- though feel free to tell me to eff off, as the Prime Minister would say- as our leading light of Scottish Labourism, who are you backing for the leadership?
    ————-
    Sarah Boyack. She’s got an uphill struggle against Jim Murphy & the bookies odds are well against her but I’m still optimistic that she can win.

  14. “Yes it would, all this second resignation does is illustrate how difficult it is to get somebody of real standing who is not also a member of the establishment. I cannot see it having any significant effect on Mrs May’s career IMO.”

    To lose one inquiry chair may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose a second looks like carelessness.

  15. @RogerH,

    That’s just a cheap and meaningless soundbite.

    The problem is that the two key ingredients for an “ideal” chair, expertise and a lack of links to the establishment, are more or less mutually exclusive.

    I’m sure there will be other candidates, but perhaps we need to publish a list of possibles and give the press and the lobby groups 12 months to try and rubbish them before we actually appoint anyone.

    Having said that, I’m not really sure what this enquiry is supposed to be about. If it is specifically about “what did senior cabinet ministers know about the involvement of VIPs in abuse involving care homes in the 1980s” that’s one thing. But at the moment it seems to be “let’s reexamine all child abuse examinations, ever, all the way back to Peter Grimes” in which case they will probably need hereditary chairs, as the first one will die of old age before the enquiry is finished.

  16. Survation. @Survation · 3m 3 minutes ago

    NEW Rochester & Strood for Unite (chg frm 5/10) CON 33 (+2) LAB 16 (-9), LD 1 (-2) UKIP 48 (+8), GRE 2 (+2), AP 1%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Rochester-Strood-TTIP-full-tables.pdf

  17. Neil A
    Forgive me but you are the one who makes ‘enquiries’. The big wigs hold Inquiries.

  18. ROGERH

    Just watched ITV News who dealt with the subject very fairly i thought. Made the same comment as Bantams, myself and Neil A. Very difficult to find any body who is not a member of the establishment, yet has the necessary expertise, and would now want to do the job.

  19. @Howard,

    You’re right, but

    “The traditional distinction between enquire and inquire is that enquire is to be used for general senses of ‘ask’, while inquire is reserved for uses meaning ‘make a formal investigation’.

    In practice, however, enquire (and enquiry) is more common in British English while inquire (and inquiry) is more common in US English, but otherwise there is little discernible distinction in the way the words are used”.

    From oxforddictionaries.com.

    I’m only a Constable, and therefore allowed to use colloquial English, surely? ;)

  20. On Survation, (thanks Bramley) this poll is not good either for UKIP or Labour. If realised in the actual election, the Conservative spin doctors can write it off, as in fact they have been doing so for some time. They can even point to a massive shift from Labour to UKIP rather than anything else. What the Labour spinners wanted was a decent UKIP victory, the Labour vote holding up better, and a panic reaction from Con MPs. considering defection.

    The latter considerers will find it difficult to read the runes.

  21. Neil A
    I bow to your knowledge. I am used to appearing at Inquiries (fighting road schemes in the 90s), ergo my comment.

  22. @RogerH,

    So are you saying that the Home Office literally didn’t care who they appointed?

    This idea that a couple of senior Tories just got out their address books at a dinner party and pointed to pages at random is just partisan twaddle.

  23. @ Howard,

    I dunno, if I were a Tory MP in a… let’s call them Blair marginals, the seats Labour has no chance to win in 2015 but that aren’t so Conservative that they’re safe forever- the evidence that Labour voters are willing to cast tactical votes for Ukip would be making me pretty twitchy.

    It’s not a great poll for Labour, but it seems pretty clear that the leadership have calculated they want Reckless to win. Best case scenario for them would be Labour > Ukip > Tories, and then Ukip > Labour > Tories. Given that neither of those things were likely to happen, their second best bet is for the Tories to panic (given the state of the polls, they now need the Tories to panic). The more Reckless wins by, the greater the chance the Tories will panic. 8% on top of his majority probably does them more good than another 8% on Labour’s third place.

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