There has been comparatively little Scottish polling since the referendum (partly I expect because newspapers had spent their budgets on pre-referendum polling). I’ve seen some people spending rather too much time collating and looking at Scottish crossbreaks in GB polls. Personally I wouldn’t recommend putting too much weight on crossbreaks – aggregating them up gets round the sample size issue, but GB polls are still weighted at the GB level. If you think back to how het up people got about whether Scottish polls were weighted by Holyrood or Westminster voting intention, factored in place of birth, things like that – the Scottish sub-sample in a GB poll have no such controls, it’s just how the Scottish respondents in a poll weighted to GB targets happen to fall out.

Nevertheless, they are a straw in the wind, and they’d been suggesting a strong showing for the SNP since the referendum. Today we have a proper, bespoke Scottish poll by Ipsos MORI and if anything it shows the SNP doing even better than the crossbreaks suggested. Topline voting intentions in Westminster with changes since the general election are CON 10%(-7), LAB 23%(-19), LDEM 6%(-13), SNP 52%(+32), GRN 6%(+5). Full results are here

This would, to say the least, be rather a radical turnaround from the last general election. I don’t think swingometers offer much guidance in the case of really extreme results (a uniform swing would be mathematically impossible on this results – for example, there are about 9 seats in Scotland where Labour got less than 19% in 2010, so couldn’t lose 19% this time round. The same applies in many seats for the Liberal Democrats) but for the record on a uniform swing these figures would result in the SNP winning all but two seats in Scotland.


208 Responses to “MORI Scottish poll shows 29 point lead for the SNP”

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  1. @ Old Nat

    If it’s a link, it’ll be fine now.

  2. The only hint I’ve seen concerning the YouGov poll is this cryptic twit from Sam Coates of The Times..

    “To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori’s Scotland numbers as “just one poll”, I have good news…”

  3. Stan J

    Had he seen my prediction? :-)

  4. And it’s probably a good thing, actually – it’ll up the number of people visiting the page :-)

  5. George Eaton tweeting Sarwar to SoS fS : Curran to replace Murphy : Murphy to …..

  6. @ Stan J

    “To the Labour spindoctor who today dismissed Ipsos Mori’s Scotland numbers as “just one poll”, I have good news…”
    ————–
    It depends whether Sam Coates was being ironic or playing it straight.

  7. @OldNat Amber

    Not sure why but my gut says he’s being a git and it’ll be another crushing blow for Labour. Ten minutes..

  8. Sam Coates Times [email protected] · 50m50 minutes ago
    At 10pm tonight The Times publishes a YouGov / Scotland poll, including how Scots wd vote in a general election. Results first here.

  9. Amber

    I do hope those “…..” didn’t indicate more bad news. i don’t think I’ve ever made a YG poll prediction before, and I don’t want to be humiliated by my error. :-(

  10. @ Old Nat

    It’s probably best to get all the bad news in one lump!

  11. Just got in from PCC by-election canvassing. Now the waiting game begins.

  12. @Mr Nameless

    Do you think the turnout will breach the 10% barrier?

  13. Anthony, these Scottish poll results showing SNP dominant in Scotland, together with other polls that show the rise of UKIP in England and the Greens across the country surely means that your ‘Latest UNS Projection’ on your home page is likely to be significantly out from what the outcome would be if the general election votes for SNP, UKIP, Greens and LD are similar to these recent polls. For example Labour would lose most of its Scottish seats and there would not be anything like the ‘Labour Majority 12’ that the UNS is showing today. Likewise both your basic swingometer and advanced swingometer surely need a radical overhaul to let UKPollingreport users enter figures for UKIP and Greens, and maybe to show Scotland as a separate domain like Northern Ireland is currently on the swingometers if the swingometers are to predict anything like the likely outcome based on the current radical changes in the political party landscape?

  14. There is some good news for Labour. Two Tory councillors have defected to Labour in Dudley this evening.

  15. CMJ,

    No. At my polling station by 4PM the turnout was in the double figures from an electorate of a couple of thousand.

  16. Family legend says the Brahan Seer was a distant ancestor of mine. Have I inherited those skills, or were they as rubbish as Great-Grandad funded the Free Kirk single handed?

  17. LizH,

    Yes I saw that on Twitter. Do we know circumstances?

  18. Another by election win for the SNP

    North Coast and Cumbraes on North Ayrshire (SNP defence)
    Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4)
    Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
    Scottish National Party 1,705, 1090 (45%)
    Labour 1,144 (19%)
    Conservative 1,143 (18%)
    Independent 1,017 (16%)
    Socialist Labour Party 124 (2%)
    Candidates duly nominated: Drew Cochrane (Ind), Toni Dawson (Con), Meilan Henderson (UKIP), Grace McLean (SNP), Valerie Reid (Lab)

  19. Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes · 3s 3 seconds ago

    Times/YouGov Scotland poll:
    Labour in Scotland results
    GE 2010: 42%
    YouGov May 2012: 40%
    YouGov June 2014: 39%
    YouGov this week: 27%

  20. BBC – YouGOV Scottish Westminster intentions Con: 15 Lab: 27 Lib Dem: 4 SNP: 43

  21. Scottish Westminster Poll (YouGov):
    SNP – 43%
    LAB – 27%
    CON – 15%
    LDEM – 4%

  22. Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes · 23 secs 24 seconds ago

    Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
    SNP: 43% (47 seats)
    Labour: 27% (10 seats)
    C: 15% (1 seat)
    LD: 4% (1 seat)
    1,078 adults Oct 27-30

  23. Ooops Sorry that was the last result

  24. @MRNAMELESS

    According to Labourlist it is because the Tory Party is out of touch and cost of living is hitting people hard. http://labourlist.org/2014/10/double-defection-two-councillors-quit-tories-and-join-labour/

  25. liz

    “There is some good news for Labour. Two Tory councillors have defected to Labour in Dudley this evening.!

    For some reason I have an image of them scaling a wall and swimming across a river with searchlights sweeping over them.

    Hope they made it.

  26. Anthony’s Advanced Swingometer (and yes, I take his point about its limitations) on YG result –

    SNP 45 seats : Lab 12 : Con 1 : LD 1

    That’s much more realistic than that MORI nonsense! :-)

    (My family lied. I have no second sight :-( )

  27. 16 is less than 29

  28. So after all the warnings about crosstabs, they were within the MoE for every party ;)

  29. R&D

    True – but you should show your working in any arithmetical answer, to get full marks.

  30. I will be surprised if SNP manage 33% next May.

  31. Almost as good as Crossover. :-)

  32. Number Cruncher

    Vindicates your analysis!

    (any tips for tomorrow’s races?)

  33. @Rosie and Daisie

    Yes and 16 is also consistent with most recent crossbreaks.

  34. Graham

    You probably haven’t inherited any of the Brahan Seer’s skills either. Commiserations.

  35. @ R & D

    :-)

  36. I suspect Mori’s figures may be a bit wrong. Still the general picture is clear. Labour in Scotland has work to do and roughly 6 months to do it.

  37. OK This tweet is Times selection (so hardly unbiased choice!)

    “Times/YouGov Scotland How much do you trust Ed Miliband now: (compared with Sept 17) Total Trust: 15% (25%) Total not Trust: 80% (67%)”

  38. Oldnat,
    I am actually – quite seriously – a Spiritualist medium

  39. Shock News: SNP plummet 9 points since last poll. ;-)

  40. No worries for Labour. All they have to do to persuade Scots that they are not crypto-Tories is to annoint a Blairite as SLAB leader.

    I am beginning to think they want to lose.

  41. Tom Newton Dunn [email protected] · 16 secs17 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It’s not getting any better for Ed Mili – Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

  42. @number cruncher / Oldnat

    I’ve been getting nipped for a month about the CBs. Phooey!

    45 seat on EC and 47 seats on the SV calc.

    Jim Murphy’s seat will not be one of them. Given the potential problems of 45 SNP seats, will he back out of the leadership thingy?

  43. Graham

    Fair enough. Everyone is free to have their own beliefs. Was your observation based on the kind of analysis that we all use, or did other sources influence your conclusion?

  44. Now all we need is for UKIP to win the PCC election to complete the circle.

    It was the night before Halloween….

  45. Statgeek

    Ok. You are one of the good guys too.

    Murphy hasn’t much choice now. Miliband has already taken the opportunity to cut off any chance that Jim had of Westminster preferment.

    Now Ed couldn’t possibly have been so subtle as to encourage Jim to go for Scotland, while simultaneously cutting off his retreat (and possibly his appendages as well) – could he?

  46. Frankly I don’t believe either of these polls once they are translated to seat predictions….

    Charles Kennedy is nailed on safe to survive in Skye no matter how low Lib Dem voting intention goes nationally, so with the Northern Isles also safe, Lib Dems will still return 2 Scottish MPs even if they are down to 2-3% of the vote.

    Beyond that prediction I’m not willing to guess what on earth might happen in the next six months. Frankly anything from 40 SLab MPs to 40 SNP MPs seems equally possible.

    Going to be an absolutely fascinating next six months.

    One final prediction: The number of posters on here complaining about the preponderance of Scottish discussion is going to increase exponentially! ;-)

  47. With the Scottish polls it may well be that the Tories don’t need to lead by six-seven points to get the most seats as is generally assumed…

  48. Given how close the Conservatives and Labour are in YG polls (within 1% probably), we can fully expect many crossovers both ways,

    Reacting poll to poll is the road to psephological madness!

  49. @oldnat

    Hahahah thanks… Re the races maybe quit while I’m ahead ;)

  50. How ironic when the SNP make a Westminster polling breakthrough, they seem not to want immediate independence anymore.

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