There has been comparatively little Scottish polling since the referendum (partly I expect because newspapers had spent their budgets on pre-referendum polling). I’ve seen some people spending rather too much time collating and looking at Scottish crossbreaks in GB polls. Personally I wouldn’t recommend putting too much weight on crossbreaks – aggregating them up gets round the sample size issue, but GB polls are still weighted at the GB level. If you think back to how het up people got about whether Scottish polls were weighted by Holyrood or Westminster voting intention, factored in place of birth, things like that – the Scottish sub-sample in a GB poll have no such controls, it’s just how the Scottish respondents in a poll weighted to GB targets happen to fall out.

Nevertheless, they are a straw in the wind, and they’d been suggesting a strong showing for the SNP since the referendum. Today we have a proper, bespoke Scottish poll by Ipsos MORI and if anything it shows the SNP doing even better than the crossbreaks suggested. Topline voting intentions in Westminster with changes since the general election are CON 10%(-7), LAB 23%(-19), LDEM 6%(-13), SNP 52%(+32), GRN 6%(+5). Full results are here

This would, to say the least, be rather a radical turnaround from the last general election. I don’t think swingometers offer much guidance in the case of really extreme results (a uniform swing would be mathematically impossible on this results – for example, there are about 9 seats in Scotland where Labour got less than 19% in 2010, so couldn’t lose 19% this time round. The same applies in many seats for the Liberal Democrats) but for the record on a uniform swing these figures would result in the SNP winning all but two seats in Scotland.


208 Responses to “MORI Scottish poll shows 29 point lead for the SNP”

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  1. Lurker

    Oh we get the gist. It’s just that you seem to confuse long term aims, short term goals, where power lies and how to best move from now to the future.

    One thing that certainly happened during the indyref is that lots of people educated themselves on lots of political issues. However people decided to vote, they were more politically aware than before – and that knowledge won’t have gone away by May.

    How that will actually influence real votes in May, we will need to wait and see. But I think we can confidently predict that many people won’t vote on the basis of banal sloganising from politicians, the media or others.

  2. @Roger Mexico

    “No, at least not without other changes on VI in general.”

    Those other changes in VI in general don’t have to be particularly great now for that to turn into a “Yes”. It is well within the bounds of possibility, even likely now, that the Conservatives will end up with most seats if Labour win next to nothing in Scotland. Once Labour pass a certain threshold there, the Scottish Labour seats start to be lost in great numbers for a relatively small loss of vote share. So basically I consider that Neil A is right – it is quite conceivable.

  3. PS. HS2 isn’t popular anywhere.

  4. @Oldnat (deprivation / affluence)

    Logically, to defeat the SNP, reduce the deprivation (i.e. deal with the poverty gap).

  5. Statgeek

    “Logically, to defeat the SNP, reduce the deprivation (i.e. deal with the poverty gap).”

    I’ll vote for that! Come to think of it, I usually vote for that.

  6. Oldnat

    Given that the SNP may get a lot of seats in May, they may wish to make clear that they would not take an opportunity for independence.

    Otherwise you risk a Nick Clegg/tuition fees situation.

  7. Is anyone in Scotland expecting the British Government which has a deficit of 100 million pounds to give Scotland more money or less?

  8. STATGEEK has updated his graphs for the latest VI in Scotland.

    http://i1014.photobucket.com/albums/af266/weweremadetofly/Textures/YellowLine.png

  9. Lurker

    Without any insider knowledge of SNP electoral strategy, I think I can assure you that they will make their positions just as clear as is required to maximise votes, and to minimise loss of votes.

    Like every political party, they will do that as appropriate for the electorate they are appealing to.

    While that may not satisfy Jim Murphy supporters such as SoCalLiberal, I’m sure they’ll be willing to sacrifice that part of the Californian ex-pat vote.

  10. WOLF

    “Is anyone in Scotland expecting the British Government which has a deficit of 100 million pounds to give Scotland more money or less?”
    _______

    Do you mean “Will the British Government give Scotland more of her tax revenues back?”

    Answer…Yes if the VOWS are to be believed.

  11. Gossip – but from Tom Bradby, Political editor ITV News, not to be discounted

    “Apparently, MORI was so shocked by this Scotland poll result it did the research again with a bigger sample – and got the same answer.”

  12. Oldnat

    Just like Nick Clegg then? Risky.

  13. Lurker

    Now you are just being silly. Nick Clegg did everything he could to get the SoCalLiberal vote.

  14. @NEIL A
    “Is it conceivable that if this actually happened, the Tories could squeak into a position to govern as a minority, assuming that mass of SNP MPs stick to their “don’t vote on English matters”?”

    Possibly, if they can see off the UKIP threat in England.

    Also – is it possible the Tories could gain seats in Scotland, coming through the middle in Lab-Tory marginals? That would certainly give them authority to continue to govern (“we have more seats in Scotland than we did in the last parliament” etc).

    As for Labour – they are probably horrified by this turn of events, but it might be the making of them. They’ve been dominated by a Scottish stranglehold for close on two decades, even though they’ve always had more English MPs. With the Scottish MPs gone, they’ll start to look and sound very different, and will start to evolve again.

  15. JOHN B
    @Allan Christie
    “At this rate the only workable government will be a Con/Lab coalition, with the SNP as H.M.’s Opposition asking all the questions!”
    ______

    LOL, what a prospect that would be,

  16. Ach. Forget this polling nonsense. Scotland Ladies have just lost another goal to the Netherlands. Now 4-1 down on aggregate.

    Scottish self-esteem will never recover, so we’ll all just vote Lab again.

  17. Candy

    Labour “will start to evolve again.”

    Is that a reference to dinosaurs?

  18. OLDNAT is on form tonight LOL

  19. Murphy’s name appears 11 times on BBC in Scotand’s website main page. Boyack twice. Findlay once.

    I’m expecting Amber to organise a demonstration against BBC bias. :-)

  20. MORI poll – Party support by Children in household

    Kids – SNP 62% : Lab 16% : Con 8% : LD 6% : Grn 8%
    No kids – SNP 49% : Lab 25% : Con 11% : LD 7% : Grn 5%

  21. OLDNAT

    AMBER will be at the Sermon by the Clyde tonight.

  22. OldNat – “Is that a reference to dinosaurs?”

    Kinda sorta :-)

    All the parties seem to be frozen in the past. Labour in the early 90’s, the Conservatives in ’80’s, UKIP in the 1950’s. Meanwhile time is marching relentlessly onwards and the disconnect with the present gets more and more jarring.

    So yes, if shocks like loosing their Scottish MPs allows other voices to be heard in Labour, it’s definitely a Good Thing. And the Tories could do with gaining some Scottish MPs, different voices would have a chance to be heard in that party, which in turn would change them.

    Plus it would be truly funny if the Scots elected more Tories than Labour :-) What with them already having more UKIP representation than London, it would be a real sea-change.

  23. @OldNat @AC

    So despite being pummelled in Scotland yesterday’s YG still showed Lab at 34% in GB.

    The equation seems straightforward for Labour in Scotland. Find someone who can win back some of the ground lost to the SNP and they will be in overall majority territory.

    Assuming yesterday’s YG wasn’t an outlier.

  24. RAF

    Most people who will vote SNP on election day would probably prefer a Labour majority government to a Tory one (I seriously don’t include myself on this) but Labour and the Tories have two negative factors facing them.

    Labour v the SNP and in England Tory v UKIP…Which one will cause the most damage?

  25. Candy

    It’s very rare that in politics we get a mass extinction like the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event (I’ve been watching Walking with Dinosaurs on Netflix!).

    1918-23 was the last one in Scotland, and mirrored a similar one in England.

    We may be privileged to watch another one unfolding. My grandparents saw the last one, but being Highlanders, they totally ignored it and carried on voting Liberal regardless. :-)

  26. Thought you might be interested in what EdM had to say about devolution to the Daily Record – “I came to Parliament after devolution and so I recognise not just the settled nature of the devolution settlement but also the case for further devolution.”

  27. Oldnat
    With reference to the subsamples you were posting:
    It’s really bad however you cut it for Labour, I think you’re enjoying it too much!
    IMO Under a new leader SLAB will start to climb back up the electoral mountain (or should that be Monroe), but Lab seats will still be tumbling next May.

  28. A bit strange that MORI comes out with these figures just when two consecutive days of YouGov crossbreaks shift the other way.

  29. Jim Murphy is describing himself as “a working class lad from Glasgow.” Does that have any resonance with the Johnny-come-lately ” nationalists?

  30. Cloudspotter

    I post the crossbreak numbers because they give clues to where the significant shifts seem to be taking place.

    Only one poll etc etc, (even if MORI ran it twice, if we are to believe Bradby), but they tell us something, even if it exaggerates what I think will be the difference between the party VIs come May.

    The importance of this polling (and perhaps the YG one if it is published) lies in its timing, as the Smith Commission deliberates – and the Westminster parties decide how they are going to deal with those bloody Scots!

    (Of course, I am enjoying it, but that’s something best followed on lots of jokey Twitter hashtags).

  31. Incidentally, as many thought, Sarwar has decided to step down as Deputy SLab leader (presumably so that Murphy can be crowned leader, and Boyack or Findlay become Deputy).

    Personally, I’d like Amber’s candidate to win the leadership, and Findlay the Deputy. That would be fun!

  32. @CLOUDSPOTTER Do you mean ‘Munro’?

  33. @Oldnat

    “Party support by Children in household”

    Does that omit over 65s before calculating it? It ought to, if it’s to be a fair stat.

  34. @ Old Nat

    The deputy leadership is usually a separate contest & people standing for the leadership can’t also stand for the deputy role.

  35. When I say “can’t”, they don’t usually. “Can’t” is probably too strong a word!

  36. @ Old Nat

    Update – the Leader & Deputy Leader contests will run in parallel so candidates won’t be able to stand for both.

  37. @Amber

    I hope I’m wrong but it looks like a stitch-up for Murphy. He wouldn’t be standing if there was any prospect he would lose.

  38. Amber

    Thanks for the information. From an outsider’s point of view it looks like SLab repeating the error of not allowing people to stand for constituency and list.

    You want your best people to be in the top jobs.

  39. Statgeek

    Crossbreak doesn’t suggest any limitation by age. Are you suggesting that there no Berlusconi’s in Scotland?

    The polling microdata would allow investigation by programs like SPSS, but the crude numbers we get from the pollsters, we just have to take as given.

  40. @ Old Nat

    Yes, I agree. I’d have liked to have the leadership contest & deputy contest separately.

  41. Amber

    Is it the NEC that decides whether these elections are run concurrently/consecutively – or some other body?

  42. @ RAF

    I hope I’m wrong but it looks like a stitch-up for Murphy. He wouldn’t be standing if there was any prospect he would lose.
    ——————–
    It’s not really possible to have a stitch-up. Of course Murphy has the highest profile which will count for a lot but remember the Labour leadership contest. Everybody, including David Miliband, thought he was a shoo-in.

  43. @ Old Nat

    SEC, I think. But it’s really down to Anas resigning. I’m thinking that maybe Ed Miliband asked him last night to take Jim’s role at Development but we’ll have to wait & see. My guess is maybe a bit too ‘neat’.

  44. YG Scotland poll for the Times out at 10pm.

    How will it compare with MORI? Ooh! Tension for the next 37 minutes (unless someone tweets it early).

  45. Amber

    Sounds like a good guess. We’ll find out in due course. – Kremlinology antennae activated! :-)

  46. @ Anthony

    Sarah’s YG page is now fixed. And a nice picture of her added. I passed it onto LiS’s press office & they must’ve got in touch with YG straight away.

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Sarah_Boyack

  47. Amber

    Though I have seen the original page on social media – and accuracy bothers few folk on there!

  48. @Oldnat

    “Crossbreak doesn’t suggest any limitation by age. Are you suggesting that there no Berlusconi’s in Scotland?”

    Not at all, but given that the over 65s are less inclined toward the SNP than others, and are less likely to kids in the household by sheer odds, then it’s a silly comparison (IMHO).

    Like saying that a majority of non-SNP voters said ‘No’. It’s kind of obvious.

  49. My prediction for YG Scotland poll

    SNP 38%
    Lab 32%
    Con 18%
    LD 7%
    Oth 5%

  50. Statgeek

    It seems to be one of the standard factors that Ipsos-MORI weight by – hence the crossbreak.

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