There has been comparatively little Scottish polling since the referendum (partly I expect because newspapers had spent their budgets on pre-referendum polling). I’ve seen some people spending rather too much time collating and looking at Scottish crossbreaks in GB polls. Personally I wouldn’t recommend putting too much weight on crossbreaks – aggregating them up gets round the sample size issue, but GB polls are still weighted at the GB level. If you think back to how het up people got about whether Scottish polls were weighted by Holyrood or Westminster voting intention, factored in place of birth, things like that – the Scottish sub-sample in a GB poll have no such controls, it’s just how the Scottish respondents in a poll weighted to GB targets happen to fall out.

Nevertheless, they are a straw in the wind, and they’d been suggesting a strong showing for the SNP since the referendum. Today we have a proper, bespoke Scottish poll by Ipsos MORI and if anything it shows the SNP doing even better than the crossbreaks suggested. Topline voting intentions in Westminster with changes since the general election are CON 10%(-7), LAB 23%(-19), LDEM 6%(-13), SNP 52%(+32), GRN 6%(+5). Full results are here

This would, to say the least, be rather a radical turnaround from the last general election. I don’t think swingometers offer much guidance in the case of really extreme results (a uniform swing would be mathematically impossible on this results – for example, there are about 9 seats in Scotland where Labour got less than 19% in 2010, so couldn’t lose 19% this time round. The same applies in many seats for the Liberal Democrats) but for the record on a uniform swing these figures would result in the SNP winning all but two seats in Scotland.


208 Responses to “MORI Scottish poll shows 29 point lead for the SNP”

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  1. New thread…

  2. Some analysis I did before the YouGov poll (updated after it) on Scotland, including why Ipsos-MORI had the SNP higher that everyone was expecting:

    It’s worth noting that the last time (that I’m aware of) that Ipsos-MORI did Scottish polls (in the months following the election in 2010), they tended to show the Tories 3 or 4 points lower than YouGov and the SNP higher by a similar amount. We can’t be sure if that’s still the case now until YouGov (on whose data my number crunching is based) do their own poll, but this picture is at least consistent with consistency of house effects.

    Certainly the two pollsters’ methodologies are completely different. YouGov poll online and prompt for the main parties (including for voters living in Scotland, the SNP) or “Another party” and include all voters besides DKs, non-voters and refusals, with weighting by party ID. Ipsos-MORI poll by phone, do not prompt for any party and include only those “certain to vote”, with no political weighting. From the tables, the turnout filter doesn’t seem significant. Not using political weighting, on the other hand, can lead to exaggerated volatility. This too could explain part of the difference – time will tell.

    http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-polling-analysis-and-what.html?spref=tw

  3. Tonight’s YG is nothing new (except for the Tories being a little high). The big two (GB wide) are neck and neck.

  4. Another Scottish poll showing Labour in meltdown. The only comfort they can take is that they (according) to this poll is that they will hold 12 seats which by my calculation is 3 times more than the STV poll.

    I reckon many in the Labour camp will be doing cartwheels tonight in celebration.

    UK wise…Labour 1 point ahead of the Tories….It’s going doon to the wire.

  5. Northumbrianscot

    “Frankly I don’t believe either of these polls once they are translated to seat predictions”

    The polls are believable. It’s the UNS based seat calculators that aren’t credible (though all of them keep O&S as Lib-Dem).

    I agree about Charlie Kennedy. He can adopt any party label, or none, and still keep his seat. I can’t really see Michael Moore losing either.

    Murphy could even hang on in East Ren, as Tories decide to back an electable Unionist.

  6. @AC

    Lab 1pt behind the Tories.

  7. RICHARD
    Re Napoleon is widely reported with cautioning his troops a variation on, “let us wait a little; when your enemy is executing a false movement, never interrupt him”. Complacency as a campaigning technique may be the latest in a series of false moves by the No campaign

    Trust the North British Person to mangle the quote. Versions of it appeared in French memoirs at the time of N’s death, but the earliest know translation of it into English is in Volume 5 of Archibaldn Alison’s , French Revolution published by Blackwood and Sons of Edinburgh in 1836 as:

    “In that case,” said Napoleon, “let us wait twenty minutes; when the enemy is making a false movement we must take good care not to interrupt him.” see http://books.google.com/books?id=pgcUAAAAQAAJ&q=%22false+movement%22&redir_esc=y#v=snippet&q=%22false%20movement%22&f=false

  8. 54 SNP MPs predicted? Excellent. Now, using the logic of the main UK-wide parties when and not in power at Westminster when they state that once elected they have a mandate from the people for the implementation of everything in their manifestos, that looks like a serious mandate for Scottish independence to me. Perhaps what we may see the day after the election is the sight of new SNP MPs coming down to the Westminster parliament to “book in” and then getting the first train out of King’s Cross back to Edinburgh (in much the same way as the Slovene parliamentary reps did a few years ago when they all walked out of the Yugoslav federal parliament and back up the road to Ljubliana. Oh, and guess what? Slovenia is a very successful member of the EU and didn’t get affected by the Balkan War (partly, of course because their independence was recognised within days by Austria and other EU member states). I look forward to this. But, of course BBC Propaganda won’t carry this in their news programmes. Pro Libertate!

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