Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7%. The Labour lead of three points is actually larger than recent YouGov polls and for the first time in a YouGov poll the Green party are ahead of the Liberal Democrats (Lord Ashcroft’s polls have shown the same a couple of times). Both findings are well within the margin of error so don’t get too excited – recent YouGov polls suggest the underlying picture is that Labour have a wafer thin lead over the Tories for first place, and the Lib Dems have a wafer thin lead over the Greens for fourth place.


163 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 34, LDEM 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7”

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  1. I think there is a local by-election tonight in the North Ayrshire Council ward of Largs, & the Cumbrea’s.

    At present the SNP and Labour hold equal amount of seats…Should be interesting but the North part of North Ayrshire is quite Tory’ish!!

  2. @John B

    I suspect you might be a double agent, trying to lure Labour into voting for Murphy.

  3. @Couper

    Only double? You do me a dis-service, sir!

  4. I remember saying on UKPR during the referendum campaign that Labour would be decimated at the 2015 GE and getting a lot of criticism – but looking at this pollpoll. Labour are literally decimated 41 down to 4. So I wasn’t being totally unrealistic.

  5. @John B

    I’m a madam (my user name is misleading I know)

  6. @Allan

    If you’re referring to: http://www.statgeek.co.uk/charts/scotland-poll-trends-over-time.png

    …they go as high as the highest VI data point over the last 30 YouGov polls. :))

    SNP on 52% for 54-57 seats?

    I think the Scottish media are setting up the next SLAB leader for early as the SNP’s polling shrinks from 52% to 35%. Sounds like a fix. :))

  7. Typo:

    “setting up the next SLAB leader for early success

  8. @Couper

    How you earn your living is your business……
    Apologies for the sexist presumption!

    ‘Literally decimated’? NO – far worse than that. To decimate was to reduce by one tenth – a Roman punishment ‘pour encourage les autres’.
    This is virtual wipe out.

    But Statgeek is probably correct.

  9. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/29735984

    Very sensible article by Mardell.

  10. @Bfield

    “I still think they should elect the teetotal , vegetarian marathon runner to be leader of the SLab party”

    It seems a bit of an extreme way to avoid bacon butty moments

  11. R&D
    Sensible article, but
    “What is true is that at certain times in the past, British Conservatives would salivate at the thought of energetic, young skilled workers willingly doing a job more cheaply than those who were older, less skilled. “ignores the fact that it is energetic, young skilled foreign, more experienced workers, who are competing with UK less energetic, young less-skilled workers that ONS demonstrate are a big part of the problem. EM’s, I understand, solution of obliging foreign worker hiring companies also to provide an apprenticeship/internship for young Brits, might offer policy maker a more universal porridge – I bet old Goldilocks BJ would lap it up.

  12. #policy makers.

    and so would Kenneth Clarke and Tarzan.

  13. We live in interesting times

    The near meltdown of the Liberal Democrats and the rise of UKIP, the SNP and almost unnoticed the Greens introduces huge uncertainty into the equation and nobody can predict what will happen next May . However I would make the following points

    1 What is happening in the UK has been happening across Europe for years. People are fed up with the traditional parties due to a number of reasons. In fairness to the politicians the public have unreasonable expectations of what any one party can do in the face of what is now a global economy where only two countries -the USA and China have the economic muscle to chart their own course.

    2 If the public want the prevailing Social Democratic welfare model in Europe to continue then it must pay for it with Scandinavian levels of taxation but the failure of the centre left to grasp this issue leaves the field to be dominated by the centre right. I say this Anthony not to make a political point but as a means of explaining why we are where we are.

    3 As Anthony said on this site some months ago any election result is possible including a significant Labour win and even a Tory landslide. Although the rise of the minor parties makes this less easy to visualise at this point in time I believe that Anthony’s assessment is still valid.

    4 For one I would bet that the two party share of the vote ( Lab/Con) will actually increase next May. Why ? Well because of the fall in the Lib Dem vote which is clearly not going to return any time soon. Do the maths. Is it really likely that disaffected Lib Dem voters are going to vote UKIP and as for the Green vote well how many candidates are they actually going to put up. Not 650 I’ll be bound.

    5 The scene is set for an astonishing 6 months of ups and downs not least due to the impact of the Rochester by election but the clever forecaster is one who spots the underlying trends . It is still all to play for.

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