Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7%. The Labour lead of three points is actually larger than recent YouGov polls and for the first time in a YouGov poll the Green party are ahead of the Liberal Democrats (Lord Ashcroft’s polls have shown the same a couple of times). Both findings are well within the margin of error so don’t get too excited – recent YouGov polls suggest the underlying picture is that Labour have a wafer thin lead over the Tories for first place, and the Lib Dems have a wafer thin lead over the Greens for fourth place.


163 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 34, LDEM 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7”

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  1. @ Anthony Wells

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Sarah_Boyack

    YouGov have somehow managed to show Sarah Boyack as being a member of UKIP. Please can you get this changed immediately!!! It’s not funny & could actually have an impact on Labour’s Scottish leadership elections.

  2. @Anthony,

    I think YG should also clear the likes/dislikes too, I think that would be fair. Some people will have liked/disliked based on the Party which YG has against her name – & it’s wrong.

    Thanks.

  3. Gazprom,

    “With regard to the Conservative poor polling position …”

    I’m not sure that you’re being fair to the Tories in saying that their polling position is ‘poor’.

    Surely, the historical evidence suggests that any party in government over a full parliament does not increase its vote share – indeed, it’s more than likely to fall. I believe that about 150 years has gone by since a governing party – for a ‘full’ term – increased its vote share.

    So, we can’t expect the Conservative Party to be anything but below 36%. And, to stay there. (Unless, of course, we think that they’re exceptional.)

  4. @Welsh Borderer

    Pleased I managed to meet your challenge :-)

    I agree Rochester will show a structural weakness for Labour in SE England outside London seats. I just don’t think (on it’s own) that specific weakness will prevent them from being largest party / small majority next year.

    As you say though there are other factors like weaknesses in Scotland and some other areas where local election results have been mediocre that could combine to see them fail to be largest party.

    Just don’t read too much into Rochester on its own.

  5. NEWHOUSENET.
    I think the Cons improved: 1955-59 1983 Majority was much higher than in 1979.

    1900 GE majority was higher than that of 1886.

  6. Reading through the thread I am tempted ask whether the ‘winner’ of the May GE will not be the party which ‘loses least badly’?

    Neither the Tories nor Labour seem, at the moment, to be on course to ‘win’; the UKIP and Green VIs, along with SNP VIs in Scotland, although perhaps not as set in concrete as some would like, may well throw up a whole series of ‘unpredictable’ results, where MPs are elected with small margins of victory, often to their own surprise as much as anyone else’s.

    A year ago we were thinking that ‘things would return to normal’ once the prospect of the GE came close. Perhaps it is still too early to tell, and maybe there is a game of poker going on between the voting public and the main political parties, but I think that any ‘return to normality’ will not happen until the end of the winter; and even then perhaps not even then.

  7. A wee anecdote on the Scottish Labour leadership contenders.

    I’ve met all 3 of them over the years.
    I’ve been represented by 2 of them.
    I’ve voted for 1 of them.

    But there is only 1 of them who I’ve been mountain biking with…

    I’ll leave you to guess which is which ;-)

  8. @Amber

    I assume (perhaps wrongly) that you were referring to Sarah Boyak in a post a couple of days ago (“Hoping that someone was going to stand but unable to say at present” – or something along those lines).

    I don’t buy the ‘LiS Civil War’ stuff, although a healthy debate on the way forward would be necessary.

    JM’s candidacy – and the way he is presenting it – is, IMO very positive. I would expect a LiS ‘bounce’ in the coming days. Not that he is a ‘shoe in’, of course, but all round so far so good…… from all three candidates.

  9. C1945,

    I was speaking of vote share. Are you?

  10. Amber – not in the office today (see what happens when I take a holiday? Actually not related to my absence though, a completely different department of the company) email [email protected]

  11. ‘even then perhaps not even then’

    Apologies!

  12. Northumbrianscot.
    The only one of them a vegetarian and teetotaller?

  13. @ Anthony

    Thank you! :-)

  14. Couper and others
    The reason I am uncertain that Con to UKIP must necessarily have many (how many?) percent of working class Tories who benefited from Right to Buy, but now feel abandoned (if I understand the theory correctly) is that it need one to put two and two together and make five. It could be a correct analysis but a closer tie up of the various categories whereby the two categories are remorselessly ticked, would be needed to give certainty, for me.

    Doubtless the focus group method may be identifying what Couper and others maintain. but perhaps a deeper analysis of a combined spreadsheet of recent YG results (YG has all the base data of course) would achieve this. I think Peter Kellner does this sort of analysis.

  15. Today’s crossbreaks for Scotland show SNP at 36% with Labour 31% Is the mood music changing at all?

  16. cl45

    Fairy Nuff: the Tories WILL increase their vote share.

    If they could do it it in 1896 then they can jolly well do it again now.

  17. Apropos the Nasty Party,somebody in Tory high command is doing some pretty unpleasant triangulation/ dog whistle stuff with the Employment and Support Allowance, leaking from an official source (unattributed) that it is being considered that it should be cut by £30 per week, and then stating that this is NOT Government policy…
    The sub-text being ,of course, but vote for us and it COULD be.

    They do seem to be attempting to out Kip the Kipsters. God help us if Rochester and Strood is a dry run for the General.

  18. R&D

    For a split second, I thought you were serious!

  19. CL1945

    I think that 1955 to 1959 (end of rationing, Elvis, transistor radios, adverts on TV and American shaped cars in gay colours) would have made any sitting government popular (despite Suez. etc).

    It was the beginning of tatty Britain and we loved it.

  20. @Ewen Lightfoot
    If ESA is not cut by big chunks it could be left to continue to devalue and fade away gradually with inflation. The solution is to make sure you are not made redundant or become poor for any other reason.

    I was given some good advice long ago – “the best way to avoid a life of poverty is to choose rich parents! “

  21. Re TV debates

    As the Kippers now have a regular strip cartoon in Private Eye, this surely entitles them to a place in TV debates. No such luck for the Greens or LD’s (though of course NC does have a regular column)

  22. Given the current level of UKIP support, can we have a list of the UKIP targets?

    Am I right in thinking that UKIP has a list of 100 target seats? If so we could be interested to know what they are..

  23. @Bfield, not that one, the cyclist was in training for a trip to Cuba, many years ago before they held their current political office.

  24. Isn’t it a pity that almost all current poliical dialogue is being driven by hate and fear. Fear for the future, fear of losing your slice of pie to the immigrant, hatred of the other side.

    Why doesn’t anybody stand up for fun, freedom and frolics.
    ‘More fun for all’ is a much better slogan than ‘Say no to mass immigration’.

    Life is too short for fear to rule it. Make a little love before it fades away.

  25. @ John B

    I did mean Sarah Boyack when I was writing on Saturday or Sunday of last week. I know she’s an excellent candidate who would take LiS forward in a good direction.

    I don’t know Jim Murphy personally, so I can’t add much to what’s in the public domain regarding his record or his candidacy.

  26. GAZPROM.
    Try: ‘Things can only get better, only get better, only get better’

    Three times a winner.

    LOL> Not many agree on UKPR with a red (purple) winner.

    Cons in 1951 were at 47.0%. In 1955 they were at 48.0% Down to a paltry 47.8% in 1959.

  27. @PETER CRAWFORD

    “They were popular. Thatcher never got less than 42% of the vote in 4 general elections…”

    She only fought three elections. I don’t think any party receiving 40-odd per cent should be described as popular (relatively popular, maybe), particularly on a maximum 76% turnout . That’s not meant as a partisan view – I’d say the same of Blair’s victories. The trouble is that what under a fairer electoral system might only make a party the largest minority can produce a landslide under our ‘winner takes all’ FPTP system. We should measure a party’s popularity by its votes, though, not its seats.

  28. @Newhouset

    Personally I don’t believe it is the ‘nasty party’ image.

    The Tories do have a problem with ‘not being on the side of people like me’

    If the economy was better and they were able to make tax cuts and give aways to the middle-class, and the middle-class were more secure, the Tories would be ahead.

    Sadly, most people think of themselves not others when they vote and if the Tories were looking after them personally, they would not care how nasty they are to scroungers and immigrants.

    Yes being a bit more ‘hug a hoodie’ meant that people didn’t mind admitting they were voting Tory but it doesn’t really change their votes.

  29. CL1945,

    “Cons in 1951 were at 47.0%. In 1955 they were at 48.0% …”

    If that’s the case, then I’ll change my claim to something like “It’s 60 years since a governing party (for a full term) increased its vote share and that was by a whole 1%. If you think that today’s Tory Party is so exceptional, then you can expect it to gain a little under 1% between 2010 and 2015. If you think that there’s nothing exceptional about them ( -28% satisfaction index) then perhaps you’ll expect less of them”

  30. That’s ignoring the UKIP effect, of course!

  31. “I’ll change my claim to something like “It’s 60 years since a governing party (for a full term) increased its vote share and that was by a whole 1%.”

    And that was following a change of leader.

  32. Jim Murphy was quite impressive just now on the Radio 4 World at One.

    His words were balanced, coherent and wise, and he showed passion when Martha Kearney called him a London MP. This was either lazy of MK or inadvertent, because she is incompetent in dealing with peripheral UK and didn`t realise the dynamite contained in such a phrase.

    In praising Jim Murphy I am not attacking Johann Lamont or her way of thinking. It was appropriate before the referendum, but less so now.

  33. There has just been a new Scottish poll released Ipsos-Mori SNP 52% and Labour 23% Conservatives 10% LibDems 6% Greens 6% Ukip 2% Others 1%

    Even I think it is an outlier. But it does show we should not rely on Crossbreaks

  34. Couper2802

    Here’s the link to the STV story on their MORI poll.

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

    Seems a bit on the high side for SNP, I agree.

    I wonder if the slippage for SNP in the YG crossbreaks in the last couple of days represents the news focussing on the SLab leadership?

    What will be interesting in the tables, once they are published are any indications of volatility in the voters minds (which other polls have indicated).

  35. 58% of Scots planning to vote for break-away parties (SNP+Green) even though 55% voted No to independence? Keep giving them huge mandates just to say No to them?

    Absurd. I don’t think the electorate there know what they want.

  36. @ Couper 2802

    That should give the leadership candidates pause for thought!

  37. STV are using electoral calculus for their seat prediction. If they wanted a scarier story for the SLab leadership candidates, they could have used Scotland Votes or Anthony’s Advanced Swingometer – both of which give the SNP 57 and Lab & LD one each. :-)

  38. MacTavish

    “I don’t think the electorate there know what they want.”

    Actually, they do – and have known and expressed it for many years in polls.

    They want something which no political party has so far offered them – Devo Max.

    This should give more than SLab leadership candidates something to think about. All those involved with the Smith Commission should look at this very closely indeed.

    If the new SLab leader committed the party here to Devo Max – and could persuade Milliband and the NEC to do the same, then Lab could make gains not losses in 2015.

  39. @MacTavish

    I think most people, would settle for devo-max but there was only a choice between independence and the status quo. That is why the voters seem inconsistent.

    Although, the referendum make people chose a side and those that jumped to the pro-Independence side may not go back to settling for devo-max be interesting to see polling

    IMO Labour missed their chance on the 19th they should have come out with ‘something close to federalism’ as promised and said ‘we need a Labour government to deliver’. Instead they offered the weakest devo proposal and got sidetracked on EVEL, which meant Gordon Brown spent one of the few times he did go to the HoC arguing about EVEL not about Labour’s vision for Scotland.

    To be frank the new leader will be an improvement on Lamont. Personally I think Sarah is best but Murphy is a very clever politician and the Scottish press love him – he is the Nigel Farage of Scotland – so despite being polarising he might revive Labour’s fortunes. Findlay didn’t perform well on Scotland Tonight and although he will have union backing I don’t think he will win. I suspect Murphy has had assurances he will win before he stood – although as it is an election I don’t know how they can guarantee that.

  40. STV poll: SNP at 52% as Labour face general election meltdown

    Oh sweet Jesus of Nazareth I was going to shout “TAXI” but should that be “BUS FOR SLAB?”

  41. COUPER2802
    There has just been a new Scottish poll released Ipsos-Mori SNP 52% and Labour 23% Conservatives 10% LibDems 6% Greens 6% Ukip 2% Others 1%
    Even I think it is an outlier. But it does show we should not rely on Crossbreaks
    ______

    Absolutely and it just show you how far out the cross breaks were. I mean at least 10 of them had the SNP on between 40% to 45%.

    I’m interested to see if STATGEEKS graphs have picked up on this latest seismic activity but if I remember correctly his charts only go up to 50%. ;-)

  42. Northumbrianscot
    I still think they should elect the teetotal , vegetarian marathon runner to be leader of the SLab party.

  43. A word of caution.

    The IPSOSMori in Scotland was done between 22 and 29 October – right at the worst time for Labour.

    Looking forward, I repeat what I said above, that I expect a bounce for Labour in Scotland over the next week or so; then comes the SNP conference and the handover to Nicola Sturgeon and the annoucement of who will be her deputy. Much will depend on how that is handled, as it must not be seen as triumphalistic, but the SNP may receive its own bounce from that.

    Then will come the announcement of who is to be the next leader of Labour in Scotland. Then we will be into Christmas and the New Year.

    All this amounts to saying that the next Scottish poll which will be believable will be in mid to late January.

    Meanwhile Rochester and Strood……. and before that a vote on extraction of criminals through the European Arrest Warrant.

    Lots to keep us busy, I’m thinking…..

  44. Giving the tories another term on a silver platter then.

    Thanks Alex.

  45. OLDNAT
    Jim Murphy has stated that he believes ALL the important decisions about Scotland should be made in Holyrood in the future

  46. @Skippy – yours of 2.46

    Nonsense! There is plenty of time for the Tories to do yet more damage to themselves over Europe. And UKIP may soon be seriously threatening to take seats – they are already seriously threatening to reduce the Tory presence by handing seats to others.

    This really is fun. Has there ever been a run up to a GE like it?

  47. JOHN B

    I agree we need to see another poll carried out after the conferences and leadership elections to see where we are. I don’t think the SNP will poll over half the vote but it’s now looking likely they will make inroads to Labour as well as the LibDums.

    But the cross breaks over the past two months were picking up movement so it really doesn’t come as a surprise to me that the SNP were well in front.

    Alex Salmond is looking good for Dept PM. or Mayor of Liverpool.

  48. You wait for ages for a proper Scotland poll then we have Ipsos Mori and a rumoured Yougov one come along at the same time.

    Just as the crossbreaks swing back in the other direction! With the fieldwork for the Scotland polls all before the swing back! Lets hope the cross breaks go back to normal tomorrow to avoid the angst.

  49. You know, if Jim Murphy keeps this Devo Max line going and manages to overcome the Westminster dinosaurs I might even vote for Labour next time round…… the SNP having done everything they can for the time being…… perhaps……Sorry Old Nat…… Though Amber will have to be nice to me for a change……

  50. SKIPPY

    “Giving the tories another term on a silver platter then.
    Thanks Alex”
    ________

    Two points…
    1….Are you not a UKIP’er? Vote UKIP get Mili..

    2….Is SKIPPY not a Kangaroo?

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