Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7%. The Labour lead of three points is actually larger than recent YouGov polls and for the first time in a YouGov poll the Green party are ahead of the Liberal Democrats (Lord Ashcroft’s polls have shown the same a couple of times). Both findings are well within the margin of error so don’t get too excited – recent YouGov polls suggest the underlying picture is that Labour have a wafer thin lead over the Tories for first place, and the Lib Dems have a wafer thin lead over the Greens for fourth place.


163 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 34, LDEM 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7”

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  1. First, via twitter.

    Thank you, Anthony.

    Exciting times here in polling world.

  2. There must be a lot of churn going on within these changing figures. It’s a bit like political musical chairs.

    When the music stops om May 7 ……

  3. ” and for the first time in a YouGov poll the Green party are ahead of the Liberal Democrats (Lord Ashcroft’s polls have shown the same a couple of times). Both findings are well within the margin of error so don’t get too excited”
    __________

    I think only Alec will be excited by this but what a farce for the Lib/Dems. 5th in a national poll?

  4. Lib Dems in 5th place in the UK…is that unheard of?

  5. @Barnaby Marder

    “Not bad for Labour though vote share still disappointing.”

    But going in the right direction though!

    Both Labour AND the Greens up in the same poll too!

    @RosieandDaisie

    “I still think the principal factor will be the Tory party’s “nasty” image – whether deserved or not, and those are the Home Sec’s words, not mine, anyway – and the consequent reluctance to see them in power, alone, for the first time in 23 years after five very hard years.”

    The attempts to shake off the “nasty party” tag are likely to be scuppered by the desire, misguided in my view, to outflank UKIP on the Right. I’ve described this many times before as Cameron’s “pickle”; the circle that can’t be squared. Win back UKIP voters, alienate centrist ones won over in 2010. Retain centrist voters with more compassionate conservatism, push right wingers into UKIP’s hands.

    The Tories best chance of survival and then success in the long term would be to splinter off the raucous right wing, let the UKIP boat float free and then re-invent a European Christian Democrat style centre right party. This may take a generation and a new voting system to come about.

  6. Statgeek

    5th in GB. I’m looking forward to a UK poll – when they are in 8th, behind SNP, DUP and SF!

  7. @Allan Christie
    “And can we stop talking about SLAB?”

    One way to do that is to stop talking about S in general.

  8. The Tories 31% following dreadful headlines about EM for ages illustrate the point I made in the previous thread.

    Putting it briefly they are going to struggle to become popular enough to govern alone – and probably even as the main party in another coalition.

    that leaves aside the unlikelihood of the LDs becoming the servile partner yet again.

  9. OLDNAT
    Statgeek

    5th in GB. I’m looking forward to a UK poll – when they are in 8th, behind SNP, DUP and SF
    _______

    LOL

  10. So much for Labour’s downward trajectory.

  11. What I find remarkable is that Labour is so high along with the Greens so high.

    I think that throws a spanner in my theory that Greens are mostly taking Labour votes, it does seem to be more indicative of mostly LD’s going Green looking at this poll and Statgeek’s graphs.

  12. @Catmanjeff (FPT)

    I thought so too. But now we know the detail I wonder also whether there was a desire to distract from the re-establishment of a gap between the two main parties.

  13. PHIL HAINES
    @Allan Christie
    “And can we stop talking about SLAB?”
    ….

    “One way to do that is to stop talking about S in general”
    _____

    Now now that was on a previous thread.

  14. Richard

    The answers will probably lie in the microdata that YG have, but we don’t see.

    Which members/sectors of the YG panel are most fluid in their VI, and over which watersheds are they adjusting their flows?

  15. CROSSBAT11

    I think the idea that the best thing for the Tory party would be to split was actually proposed a couple of weeks ago by Cameron’s ex speech writer after the Conservative conference. Think he’s Ian Birrell – not sure terrible at names. Only remembered Richard ll because of his excellent essays.

  16. @AC

    No, not just Alec.

    @AW
    “Both findings are well within the margin of error”.
    Well, if you take account of the response distribution (around 6.5%) then the MoE (at a standard 95% confidence interval) is around 1.08%

    NOT “well within”. Just about within.

    And, it isn’t as if Green share has been static. It has climbed significantly this year – from 2-3% in the 6 months to April, with clear rises in April-June and a smaller, but still distinct, one since August.
    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/charts/uk-twelve-month-trend.png

    So, if that trend continues, there will be reason for Greens to get excited.

  17. @Richard

    34% is low measured against anything other than the even lower bar of polling in the past week or so.

  18. RICHARD.
    I also find it remarkable that Lib Dems are so high, alongside the Greens.

    Ed M is still afloat. Just.

    OLD NAT: Two more years of service, I hope.

    Jim M to lead the Scottish reds?

  19. Chrislane1945

    I hope the enthusiasm for teaching is still high.

    “Jim M to lead the Scottish reds?”

    No. The Scottish Socialist Party is an entirely different party from Labour. :-)

  20. @Someone from the previous thread who might wish to remain nameless
    “TORY 36% LAB 33% UKIP 15% LIB 6% GRN 5%”

    Congratulations on predicting a 3% gap.

  21. Well the good news is that the Greens should get some headlines from this, with the BBC having rejected their appeal to participate in the debates, which should hopefully give them a further boost in the polls.

    Then we can hopefully turn the national debate away from immigration and Europe and onto something more positive.

    Like Maura on the previous thread, I feel the debate is getting nasty now, and it starting to have real life implications for people on the street. As an immigrant myself I feel I am being dehumanised. Reading some of the comments about the ‘let them drown’ debate and seeing how highly rated they are I find quite alarming.

  22. Phil Haines

    Now, don’t go blaming Mr N!

  23. As soon as the spotlight shifts from EM, the Labour VI eases back up, and hello again to the 3% lead we have seen for months. Another patch of polldrums, now, seems less likely. Perhaps he relying on some fantastic policies to help squeak an OM in May?

    It does look increasingly like the Conservatives will really struggle to do more than be the largest party without having to form a proper coalition with someone. And most options won’t have enough seats to bridge the gap.

    For a long time they have had to choose between going right or left, or trying to sit still and hoping to remain plausible. There’s a lot of votes on offer either way, but I don’t think DC can give the right enough to keep all of them happy anymore (hence the defections), and I think Ken Clarke and his ilk represent more support DC needs to hold onto. If Labour were at present led by a more recognizably centrist leader, they would be in real trouble.

    LD’s on 6% (down from 23%) but still with a reasonable probability of being in a coalition with someone? Most parties would probably be out of power for yonks after a collapse like that. Our system is strange in many ways.

  24. I find it amazing that Green VI has risen in a period when there has been close to zero publicity for them.

    What can the Conservatives do to get back in the winning zone?

    Surely Labour can’t be worse than they have been for a good few weeks?

  25. Richard

    “with the BBC having rejected their appeal to participate in the debates”

    What is most disturbing about this is that a publicly funded broadcaster is so powerful and/or arrogant that it can decide to filter which voices are to be heard in an election.

  26. CHRISLANE 1945

    “Ed M is still afloat. Just.”

    In that case, all other party leaders must be drowning, mustn’t they!

  27. Electoral calculus gives a labour majority of 32 on these figures,tho that ignores green climb and snp surge.

  28. @Keith P

    “If Labour were at present led by a more recognizably centrist leader, they would be in real trouble.”

    Reading that sentence in isolation, I would agree with you. Imagine the polling impact of a combination of the charisma of Ed M and an unabashed continuation of the policies of Tony Blair.

  29. PHIL HAINES
    @Someone from the previous thread who might wish to remain nameless
    “TORY 36% LAB 33% UKIP 15% LIB 6% GRN 5%”

    “Congratulations on predicting a 3% gap”
    ________

    Come on I said before we have moved on from the previous thread. See the light…..grasp the opportunity….out with the old & in with the new….don’t resist change…….change can be good!!

    Mind you think I might dip back to the previous thread, AW has left the central heating on.

  30. @CATMANJEFF

    “I find it amazing that Green VI has risen in a period when there has been close to zero publicity for them.”

    Doesn’t it demonstrate how unimportant is the Press and other conventional media? Those who are attracted to the green agenda will make up their own minds.

  31. Roughly how I expect things to be in May 2015.

  32. Catmanjeff,

    “What can the Conservatives do to get back in the winning zone?”

    1. Loudly and openly speak out against all and every UKIP view.
    2. Announce the cancelation of the daft IN/IN referendum.

  33. Regarding the Greens and the TV debates – they should definitely go to court over this and so should the SNP/PC. They can have the debates but not in the election period.

  34. The Cons to get back to winning – should promise tax cuts for the middle class and sell something off cheap to the middle class [snip]

  35. @AC

    You’re very brave to own up!

    I’ll promise to leave things on a previous thread if you promise not to disguise your predictions as reports of the actual poll, because of the unnecessary if temporary grief that they can cause.

  36. Couper2802

    What is there left to flog off from the old family mansion? The portraits have all gone, and the servants have nicked the silver teaspoons.

  37. Further to my previous post I’d like to point out to the eternal pessimists on the Labour side that there must at least be a faint possibility that EM/Labour have remembered when the next general election is to be held.

    This is ground breaking stuff and – if I am right, and they have – it is also just possible that all their plans and policy announcements have been put in place in readiness for that very date.

    The nuclear option of an election at the time of the incumbent government’s choosing is no longer there and, of course, the rationale for that was the assumption that all the probs would have been sorted in the last five years and a grateful electorate would know exactly who to thank and respond accordingly.

    The problem now is that they are going to do precisely that….

  38. @Oldnat

    “What is most disturbing about this is that a publicly funded broadcaster is so powerful and/or arrogant that it can decide to filter which voices are to be heard in an election.”

    Not the first we’ve seen that this year.

  39. COUPER2802

    I’m all for TV debates if it means every party which has representation at Westminster are invited onto the platform.

    What I don’t like is having a UK debate with just the, well I was going to say 3 main parties but I suppose it’s the two main parties and the wee bit at the side, and then we have regional debates in Wales and Scotland.

    Effetely that means Labour Tories and the Libs are getting two bites of the cherry. Labour MP’S in Scotland will be fighting on an anti Scottish government ticket to get them into Westminster because the Tories are no where to be seen in Scotland so disadvantage SNP and advantage Labour. Bash the Tories & bash the SNP where the SNP are only getting one chance to bash.

  40. #effectively

  41. Not sure why the BBC should be blamed for a decision made jointly with ITV and Sky (and unlike the BBC those two are regulated by OfCOM). I think, though, that the error is not in excluding the Greens but in including UKIP.

  42. @Oldnat

    There’s always the Land Registry! Already mooted as a potential target for privatisation and an especially attractive sale given the middle class obsession with house prices.

  43. PHIL HAINES
    @AC
    You’re very brave to own up!
    I’ll promise to leave things on a previous thread if you promise not to disguise your predictions as reports of the actual poll, because of the unnecessary if temporary grief that they can cause.
    ___________

    Yes I will go along with that. The sheer trauma I caused could had led to some fatal casualties, In future predictions I will emphasise that they are just that…predictions. :-)

  44. Odd how it is EdM getting it in the neck when it is Cameron whose party is disintegrating and losing byelections.

  45. lurker

    the tory media is excellent. there was even an article in the sun about how appallingly labour were doing in rochester and how disgraceful it was that they were not putting up a fight….when the blues are on the verge of losing a second safe seat to ukip…

    the spin is extraordinary…i think it helps labour to be slightly underestimated at this stage…if they are clever they will say how much better they need to be doing in seats like rochester, safe in the knowledge that they don’t need rochester to get a decent majority.

  46. “LURCH
    Odd how it is EdM getting it in the neck when it is Cameron whose party is disintegrating and losing byelections”
    ______

    Maybe Michael Howard can be blamed for that…after all it’s getting close to Halloween.

  47. @AC

    “I think only Alec will be excited by this but what a farce for the Lib/Dems. 5th in a national poll?”

    Only Alec? I joined a party three weeks back for the first time in my life. Who? The Greens.

    I’ve already had an email vote (for regional rep). They, unlike the UK, actually do democracy.

  48. James Peel

    If you look at the YG article

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/29/political-disaffection-not-new-it-rising-and-drivi/

    the rise of UKIP is largely correlated with the nasty view of “politicians” – though I think that term needs to be teased out a little more to see just who the respondents were thinking about with their “unambiguously and intensely negative views of politics and politicians.”

  49. But Labour are doing badly in Rochester – they are not trying in a seat they held in 2005 (give or take minor boundary changes). If they come third here they are unelectable next May, that’s my prediction.

    Can doubters name a by election held in the last 7 months before a GE where the main Opposition and eventual GE winner came a bad third ? I don’t think so but would happy to be proved wrong.

    Is the Shadow Cabinet door-knocking every day in Rochester? If not, why not ? They would be better off doing that than trying to score points off the Tories on an issue where Labour cannot win any votes – immigration -but lose thousands every time someone like Blunkett opens their mouth.

  50. @Lurker

    “Odd how it is EdM getting it in the neck when it is Cameron whose party is disintegrating and losing byelections.”

    Matthew Taylor alluded to this rather obliquely on Newsnight last night. The real story isn’t so much Labour’s insipid poll ratings but the quite extraordinary failure of the Tories to gain even the remotest traction from any number of nominally favourable political circumstances and events.

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