We’ve had a busy day of voting intention polls today, four polls from Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes, and three of them showing the same lead. Topline figures are:

Ashcroft: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% (tabs)
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%
ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc) (tabs)

Leaving aside the tendency of Populus to show higher support for the Conservatives and Labour and lower support for others, the picture is pretty consistent. Three polls (as well as YouGov and Opinion polls at the weekend) are showing the same story – Labour and Conservative equal, and UKIP still polling very strongly. Whether there is any link there is a different matter – perhaps UKIP’s ongoing rise has attracted people who were previously saying they’d vote Labour (though not necessarily people who voted Labour in 2010) who see UKIP as a better anti-government vote, but there is always churn beneath the topline figures and things may very well be more complicated than a straight transfer between the two.


576 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft, Populus, ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. Roger Mexico

    Unless, of course, you legislate for a set of powers to be reserved to the whole House, which are common to all of the UK, and leave everything else to the representatives of England.

    It could then be up to the people of England to decide, in a referendum, whether they wanted their MPs to legislate on such issues and to select, from amongst themselves, an Executive to administer them – or to do it sensibly.

  2. The Miliband charisma is not working.

  3. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “And Labour don’t seem to have a plan in place to address people’s concerns over immigration and the Tories plans appear to be infective so it’s little wonder UKIP are pinching votes from both parties with their endless basing on immigration.”

    ————

    Well it’s difficult for Tories and Labour since committed to the EU. Plus big business lobbying etc. And campaigning to leave EU might lose more votes than it gained since polling shows quite a lot of voters wish to stay in the EU.

  4. @AC

    “It’s a good point, EM can’t just go for DC and not watch what is going on behind his back with the UKIP threat, he needs to confront both but I’m not really seeing this.”

    ———-

    It’s quite a challenge for Labour to go after anything given the situation with the press.

    I mean, how many voters are even aware that we are still looking at such a big deficit? It’s not exactly something the press shout about…

  5. “I think that George Osborne will have a rabbit or two to give the voters in his budget.”

    ————-

    Maybe. Or maybe he’ll tax ’em!! I don’t think there’s a rabbit tax yet, is there?…

  6. Lab back in the lead?

    That’s a bit counter-intuitive, what with his stand against the EU.

    Could it be that with the majority now in favour of staying in, his argument over money is likely to backfire?

    ‘Specially as we all know we can print the money anyway.

  7. CARFREW
    “Well it’s difficult for Tories and Labour since committed to the EU.”

    Committed more precisely, in respect of the immigration issue, to a single labour market, and thus importing labour at a cost and with skills which compete with UK job entrants
    Ed’s predistribution policy and the labour plan for a what wasit? Britain, is the only game in town. That is, upgrade the UK labour force and give it more equality in wages, available and affordable housing, a strengthened NHS, etc. But what’s the campaign slogan and the message?
    Was I alone in valuing Ed’s magisterial interview with Marr before Conference, and comparing it with the misjudged Conference speech? Dear God, does the man not have advisers? Plenty I suppose, from the union bosses afterwards.

  8. CARFREW
    ” I don’t think there’s a rabbit tax yet, is there?…”
    There could be Bunny tax, for night-clubbing bankers.

  9. On the subject of “England-only” matters, shouldn’t any UK MP be entitled to vote on any matter he/she thinks affects his/her constituents?

    Which means it is a matter for the individual to decide. He/she has been elected by the constituents to represent them in a UK Parliament and to be told that representative can only vote on matters that a large chunk of MPs, often from another possibly opposing party (and across the Scot-Eng border yet) that they get no say because this opposing factors have decided it doesn’t concern them is dodgy.

    Let the individual MP decide what concerns his/her constituents. If they vote for an SNP representative, they know they will get less involvement in wider UK matters, if they vote Lab or even LD/Tory/Green they will expect the wider issues (UK economy, environment, labour regulation, EU involvement, local budget share, UK-wide welfare etc) to be debated.

  10. @OldNat

    “The concept of multidimensional politics is hardly new. I first came across it in the 1950s in Eysenck’s “Psychology of Politics”.”

    Eysenck indeed. Again, an academic whose views it is best to approach with a pinch of salt or three, at least in terms of politics.

    Multidimensional analysis may be fine, but it all depends on how you define those dimensions. (That may be stating the bleeding obvious, but it’s a point that has apparently eluded you.) If I was designing such a model in this case, a second dimension might rest on the degree to which your party has sought and secured the approval of the cobber pulling Pressman’s strings.

  11. Nicola Sturgeon throws a hand grenade into the EU referendum debate by demanding that the individual members of the union have their own vote, and that an overall majority of members would be needed to leave the EU. Implicit in this is a threat to break up the union if we leave the EU.

  12. ACADEMIC

    Hardly a hand grenade, more a fishing expedition to see whether any of the “Better Together” rhetoric had any basis in fact and to gather useful data ready for the 2015 campaign.

  13. I think the all four must agree any has a veto was actual first proposed after the Referendum by Henry McLeish the former Labour First Minister.

    But then when Alex Salmond suggested that there could be a “Parlimentary” route to Independence he was attacked by Labour even though for more than thirty years almost every major Scottish Labour politician has uttered the mantra;

    “If the SNP want Independence all they need to do is get a Majority of Scottish MP’s at Westminster”

    Peter.

  14. That latest poll from Rochester suggesting up to half of the Labour vote will support Reckless doesn’t surprise or alarm me at all. By-elections are nearly always on off political events where sub-plots and hidden agendas play out in all sorts of subtle ways. Looks to me that many Labour voters have concluded that the best way of hurting the Tories is for UKIP to win.

    And they’re right.

  15. NICKP

    No it’s all very simple, only English MP’s should be allowed to vote on English policy matters in areas where similar matters have been devolved to Scottish and Welsh Governments. So for example only English MP’s should vote on issues affecting the Health Service in England.

    It is simply a matter of fairness and equality.

  16. Academic,

    So (and I admit this is unlikely) in the event that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland all voted to leave the EU but England voted to stay, Scotland, Wales and NI would form the United Kingdom?

    What an absurd suggestion. If there is a referendum I hope different regions within England vote different ways so we can throw a tantrum over having an independent East Midlands or something.

  17. PETER CAIRNS

    Quite so. Just some early stress testing of Brown’s “Federalism”.

    McLeish will probably want to have some fun with this, but let’s hope it doesn’t deflect public gaze from the new Davidson/Murphy spat which Gardham reports in the Herald.

  18. @TOH

    If it’s a matter of fairness and equality, you start by having an identical electoral system for each part. Otherwise it’s anything but.

    And the fairness and equality is better achieved by giving each region of the UK the opportunity to separately choose whether they want devolved powers that go at least some significant way to matching those enjoyed by Scotland and Wales, not pretending that continued government of England from Whitehall somehow amounts to “English devolution”.

  19. All,

    Let’s just say an England-only law is one with a clause in it saying there will be no consequential spending on Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

    Nick P,

    We can’t print euros.

  20. MRNAMELESS
    So (and I admit this is unlikely) in the event that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland all voted to leave the EU but England voted to stay, Scotland, Wales and NI would form the United Kingdom?

    The obverse is more likely. Should the other 3 nations be ejected from the EU if England votes to leave?

    Time for the UK to consider having a real constitution?

  21. In my view yes, but it doesn’t help to wave a stick and threaten secession just after badly losing a referendum on secession.

  22. MRNAMELESS
    In my view yes, but it doesn’t help to wave a stick and threaten secession just after badly losing a referendum on secession.

    To the contrary, it was embracing the promised federalism but pointing out that there is quite a bit of work needing to be done to achieve that. With good will, there’s plenty of time for parties to put their own proposals in their 2015 GE manifestos and for the new HoC to sort it out before the 2016 GEs and the 2017 referendum.

  23. I’m just waiting for regional assemblies to be introduced so I can stand as a MWXP for the Wessex Nationalist Party.

    A man can dream…

  24. Interesting to see that the subject of illegal immigration is coming up the agenda. This is, of course, nothing to do with membership of the EU but everything to do with how the Home Office functions. It is hard to see how this can be tackled without a robust system of identity checks. Is anyone going to put ID cards back on the agenda? If not, then what?

  25. I am surprised anybody is taking the English Votes for English laws seriously. It’s dog whistle stuff; as is saying ‘we’ll let immigrants drown pour encourager les autres’; as is saying the UK will leave the EU.

    1. EV4EL – There’s not going to be 3 tiers of UK government. I’d certainly expect the Lords to block EV4EL for as long as possible because, if they passed it, then Westminster would be viewed as the second chamber by most of the population & the Lords’ days would be numbered.

    2. Letting immigrants drown is vintage Lynton Crosby, all the way from Australia. Why is he seemingly so determined to keep the ‘nasty party’ tag alive & kicking; he’s just shrunk the Tory’s potential vote pool again. And the other EU nations will just keep up the rescue efforts anyway which is why I said this is dog whistle stuff.

    3. The UK isn’t going to leave the EU because the GBP, FTSE & housing market would likely crash if we did. Sure, they’d probably recover over time – but the political Party which caused it wouldn’t recover for even longer than it would take the UK to get back to ‘normal’.

  26. Amber,

    We’re not taking EVEL seriously. It is completely impossible. (As I hinted at 8.31am).

  27. In the longer term, just how much political mileage can still be wrung out of the distraction of blaming the English for all of Scotland’s ills?

    At some point, I do hope that the Scots start to tire of all this endless debate about constitutional change and start to focus on holding their government to account for its success or otherwise in using the extensive powers already available to it to better the day to day lives of the people they were elected to serve.

  28. @NICKP

    “That’s a bit counter-intuitive, what with his stand against the EU.”

    I thought it counter-intuitive to think the Tories would benefit from the issue. Even if you object to the EU’s bill it seems to demonstrate government ineptitude.

  29. @ HAL

    But you & some of the others here on UKPR aren’t just “anybody”. :-)

  30. PHIL HAINES

    You make the mistake of equating the Nations of Wales & Scotland with the mythical “regions” of England.

    The appropriate comparison to draw with enhanced devolution to a Scottish Parliament, is not enhanced powers for the South East/South West/North , Uncle Tom Cobbley & all.

    It is enhanced devolution to the nation of England via its own MPS.

    It will then be for the English to decide what balance they wish for between Central powers & Local powers-and indeed what constitutes a sensible definition of “local” in this context.

    The author of The Consolations of Economics, Gerard Lyons, strengthens the case , in my mind, for the claim of Urban centres/hubs as the appropriate focus of local autonomy.

    He explains that the Urban Hub is the key economic driver today. The top 600 cities account for half of global growth & that is projected to rise to two thirds in 20 years time. The frightening forecast from our point of view is that the number of these in western economies will fall from 157 to 20 over those 20 years-London being the only one in UK.

    The economy of Paris is one tenth of that of France; Berlin 4% of Germany’s.
    London accounts for a quarter of the UK economy.

    Amazingly, 74% of the income of London’s administration comes from central government grants. In New York that figure is 31% ,for Berlin 26% -and for Paris of all places- 18% !

    This is a nonsense.

    England needs its own Parliament ( its own votes from its own would be fine) , which needs to devolve more income raising & spending powers to its urban hubs/cities. Only in this way will the ludicrous London centric economy of England be changed.

  31. ..from its own MPs………!

  32. Amber,

    You are very kind!

  33. A UK exit from the Eu is about as likely as a Scottish exit from the UK. Very very unlikely. In the event though, the chance of Scotland or Wales or Northern Ireland would be zero. Their economies could not survive with external borders with England. Before UK entry this was true for Ireland, Denmark and Norway as well. They could not join if it meant a potential trade barrier with the UK. Nor of course would any remnants be the UK. It is the UK that is the member of the EU and it is the UK which would be voting. It does not exist as bits for the EU.
    Phil Haines
    If only

  34. Amber Star

    “I’d certainly expect the Lords to block EV4EL for as long as possible”

    Maybe, in which case I would expect the incoming Conservative government to use the Parliament Act.

  35. How about a referendum to decide whether to introduce ID cards to control illegal immigration? The debate would be perfectly fascinating!

  36. @ TOH

    Maybe, in which case I would expect the incoming Conservative government to use the Parliament Act.
    ———–
    Well quite. And what better way to make the Lords look like a bunch of toothless old nonentities than by cutting them out of major constitutional reforms.

    The Lords days would, as I said, be numbered in such circumstances. Westminster would become the upper chamber which scrutinised devolved laws & dealt with the non-devolved matters – It’s not going to happen; the Tories don’t have the stomach for it & Labour doesn’t want it.

  37. Good Morning All.
    Forty Years ago today…. The Wilson minority government’s programme was set out by Her Majesty the Queen in the Opening of Parliament.
    Memories and parallels with possible result of the GE of 2015.

  38. AMBER STAR
    Of course EVELY should be taken seriously. It is undoubtedly the most popular and easiest way to solve the West Lothian problem.

  39. I am intrigued why my comment put up at 9.50 am should now be labelled “Awaiting moderation”.

    Can other people see these comments?

  40. TC:

    Judging constitutional proposals by what is the “most popular” is simply not fair, considering the 85% of the UK electorate that live in England.

    It is simply bullying.

  41. DAVID WELCH

    @”It is simply bullying.”

    Its called Democracy actually.

    Bullying would be the imposition of laws on England by MPs who don’t reside in England, and who cannot implement those laws in their own constituencies.

  42. I was wrong, GRAHAM, about the minority Government; Harold had a majority of three after the second 74 GE.

  43. A tourist took a snapshot of Vince Cable today on his way to parliament.
    She thought it was someone dressed up for a Halloween party until a passer by told her “No that’s the Secretary of State for Business and he always looks like that”

    http://decorating-ideas-for.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ideas-for-decorating-a-yard-for-halloween3.jpg

  44. SLAB MP claims that Lamont was the victim of a Murphy coup.

    I didn’t even know that Jim Murphy kept cattle!

  45. CARFREW

    “It’s quite a challenge for Labour to go after anything given the situation with the press.
    I mean, how many voters are even aware that we are still looking at such a big deficit? It’s not exactly something the press shout about”
    _______

    Labour are on easy street when it comes to the press in Scotland and Wales and not all the papers are against them in England.

    With regards to the deficit, I’m sure Labour and their foot soldiers on the ground will be bombarding the letterboxes telling us all how it is.

    To be honest, I think for the moment both the Tories and Labour have been dumped by the press for a bit while the MSM grapple with UKIP.

  46. So, ok, England and Northern Ireland vote to leave the EU; Scotland and Wales vote to stay.

    Now tell me how Nicola Sturgeon’s proposal will work in practice….

  47. Norbold,

    St Kilda gets the deciding vote.

  48. Norbold

    Simple. The UK stays in. And long term gives thanks for the sensible approach of the Welsh and the Scots.

  49. AMBER STAR

    Sorry I think your wrong the Parliament Act would be used in the circumstances I have suggested and it would not affect the status of the House of Lords, The current situation is glaringly wrong and has been since devolution. Just plain undemocratic, even some on the Labour side see it.

  50. It’s just a pity Berwick upon Tweed was annexed by England (rather like Russia recently annexed The Crimea, I think…… ); that would have made it a five way vote.

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