We’ve had a busy day of voting intention polls today, four polls from Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes, and three of them showing the same lead. Topline figures are:

Ashcroft: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% (tabs)
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%
ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc) (tabs)

Leaving aside the tendency of Populus to show higher support for the Conservatives and Labour and lower support for others, the picture is pretty consistent. Three polls (as well as YouGov and Opinion polls at the weekend) are showing the same story – Labour and Conservative equal, and UKIP still polling very strongly. Whether there is any link there is a different matter – perhaps UKIP’s ongoing rise has attracted people who were previously saying they’d vote Labour (though not necessarily people who voted Labour in 2010) who see UKIP as a better anti-government vote, but there is always churn beneath the topline figures and things may very well be more complicated than a straight transfer between the two.

576 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft, Populus, ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. @ pups,

    Just need to identify one. The mackems already have the second place booked. – :)


    “Look at the trajectory, they will be below 30 with at least one pollster in the next week or two if this continues.”


  3. peter

    That’s possible I suppose. Sadly one of my closest friends is a life-long supporter.

  4. Think Labour might implode soon …. Tory VI consistent with a recovery to 35-38% next year … Labour VI consistent with 28-32% … Will be interesting to see what Electionsetc.com come up with on Friday. Agree with all the posts that point out that actual seat distribution very hard to predict given high polling for UKIP and SNP, and lower (but regionally stronger) likely votes for Lib Dems.

    But real question is what will an implosion look like?

  5. “But real question is what will an implosion look like?”

    We’ll find out when the Tories implode after the by-election.

  6. “Tory VI consistent with a recovery to 35-38% next year”

    Based on what analysis?

  7. Is Labour keeping its powder dry as a deliberate strategy ?

    There is a lot they could but don’t say about the current EU obsessing .. For example 1. The Conservatives signed UK into the EEC, as it then was, not Labour 2. UKIP’s icon Margaret Thatcher signed away most of of our remaining primacy on domestic and non-defence issues in the Single European Act. 3. John Major then signed up for Maastricht which ceded even more power to Brussels 4. None of the signatures at 1-3 above were subject to a referendum in UK. 5. Only Labour ever promised and held a referendum on EU membership (in 1975). 6. The UK’s population of over-65s (and deceased) largely brought this about by electing Thatcher and voting Yes in 1975. They have now had second thoughts and created UKIP, but the old cannot determine our future ( (or the loss of ? 3m jobs). We need to ask the whole electorate including everyone over 16.

    It would be completely logical for Labour to trump all the others by offering an EU referendum within 1 month of winning the next GE. No diversionary and counter-productive negotiations with EU at gunpoint (a gun pointed at ourselves because Brexit would hurt us more), but a clear signal from Labour in endorsing a Yes vote that we will expect and demand major reforms to make EU fair to this country – for example by allowing the UK to export its successful output (mainly in service industries) as easily as the others export their products to us. There would also be a request that at least 10% of EU institutional staff should be located in UK, not concentrated in Belgium,France and Germany, and a warning that we would withhold contributions unless this was achieved within 3 years. Plus a sweeping revision of EU practice to ensure that members of the UN Security Council are completely free to speak and vote in any fora irrespective of other EU views. But no
    challenge to freedom of movement which is a lost cause unless you seek Brexit. We need to be very tough and engaged in EU, far more willing to risk ECJ challenge. Soft lawyers who gold plate EU Directives should be replaced in all Government Departments by tough barristers who will seek maximum UK advantage from every measure, and bend the rules as far as possible. What the other EU actors have done from the beginning. And all EU budgets vetoed automatically unless UK deprived areas get back at least 90% of the UK net contribution.

    A straight referendum would change the game. It is virtually certain to be a Yes and that would shoot UKIP’s fox.

    Labour may need a new leader to do something as bold as this,. But what has Ed got to lose ?

  8. Re Populus.
    I have been on the YouGov panel for a couple of years now and, whilst they occasionally have questions where none of the answer choices apply, they are generally OK and take less time than advertised to complete.
    Saddo that I am, I recently signed up for Populus. On Friday they had a poll where they rather oddly said it would ‘pay’ £3 to £1 and take 5-15 mins.
    A good half hour later they said AHA, you gave inconsistent answers so you’re excluded and were not going to pay you anything. Be more consistent in future.
    Needless to say I unsubscribed from Populus.
    Perhaps their polls are flawed because the only people who stay with them are either ultra-sad or ultra-stupid.

    Re Lab VI
    I have thought for a while that they need to show some principles and a real vision. I believe they have them but are too scared to say so. Hence my agreeing with Charles and suggesting a real NHS commitment yesterday. I’m afraid there’s not much to inspire in the Lab offer at present, other than ABT/U

  9. labour just aren’t very good.

    the tories are as flat as a pancake. I think labour could get a majority on 34%…

    Ukip have blown everything out of the water.

  10. @Roger H
    Look at the trajectory, they will be below 30 with at least one pollster in the next week or two if this continues. Tories are stable now, Labour just keeps going down. Where is their floor?

    this is right…if you analysed the VI as a trading stock. …you just don’t know where the labour floor is. I thought it was about 34 which they reached at about the time of the May elections….the reds picked up a bit from them and so 34 looked like a floor..now they ‘ve just crashed through it.

    The tories have been essentially flatlining for nearly 15 months at 32/3..they’re probably a point lower now…but labour are about 7 points lower than where they were last summer. how low do they go is the question?

  11. Every time I look at Oddschecker R&S looks more certain for UKIP (now 1/6 – a couple of weeks ago Con were briefly favourite). Meanwhile the GE Overall majority remains stolidly unmoved : NOM evens, Lab 9/4, Con 4/1

  12. 1/6 i think is quite long on ukip at the moment. betfair exchange is 1/7; paddy power 1/8

    There’s a view even among tory circles that the blues have lost it….tory maj. has lengthened a bit, presumably because of this ukip thing.

    the labour implosion is great fun to watch…

  13. Comparing VI with questions like “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as…?” can give an interesting perspective on how much of the VI is likely to reasonably solid, as opposed to tactical voting intention.

    ComRes asked that in latest poll and the % of the VI that identified themselves as “generally thinking of themselves” like that were

    SNP 95% : Con 86% : Lab 83% : LD 70% : UKIP 55% : Grn 47%.

    Across the 3 nations, the Party ID pattern was

    Eng – Con 26% : Lab 28% : UKIP 11% : LD 8% : Grn 4% : Oth 3% : Ref/DK 20%

    Wal – Con 27% : Lab 21% : UKIP 13% : LD 10% : Grn 2% : PC 2% : Oth 3% : Ref/DK 20%

    Sco – Con 13% : Lab 14% : SNP 36% : UKIP 4% : LD 7% : Grn 6% : Oth 3% : Ref/DK 27%

    Of course, not only will people switch votes tactically, but a lot of the Refused/DKs (especially in E&W won’t vote anyway. Still it might give some slues to the potential current “core vote”.

  14. “slues” -> “clues” (not “sluice”!)

  15. Clearly we are now seeing the Labour share edging down towards the 30% mark which is where I expect it to be on polling day. That’s half the battle nearly won.

    The second objective is to get the Tory share up into majority territory and that solely depends on getting the kippers back; if Cameron can show enough Bulldog spirit over the next 6 months, surely that can be done. Plus we have the campaign itself to get through where minds will be concentrated on the straight choice between DC and EM for PM.

  16. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 27th Oct – Con 32%, Lab 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 18%; Greens 6%, SNP/PCY 4%

    APP -24

    Lab seem to losing a little bit of their 2010 LD switchers and their retention is almost as bad as the Cons retention

    Lab and Con Don’t Knows are similar in this poll

    Cons have nothing to crow about, their score and retention is also awful and we know about the LD’s

    The 3 UK traditional parties can only muster 72% between them. Has that ever happened before?

  17. @David Welch

    This really takes the biscuit! Yours within apostrophes. My replies below.

    ‘John B @ 5.51 pm:
    You have a cheek, and seem proud of being ignorant.
    Why castigate the two of us who gave you reasonable rejoinders last night when you put up a message about Copeland.
    You claimed a speaker from Copeland in a Radio 4 discussion, Jamie Reed, should not have been talking about Labour opinions in Scotland on which he had no knowledge, at the same time telling us that you didn`t even know where the constituency was.
    Neither did you know that Jamie Reed was its MP, nor notice this fact from the R4 introduction.’

    I knew Jamie Reed was a Labour MP, and assumed that this was obvious from what I wrote on the subject. What bemused me was the way the discussion (without my participation) wandered off to speak about BBC regional resources and where journalists were based. It was the other participants who (presumably) didn’t know who Jamie Reed was.

    ‘Evidently you are unaware that Copeland has much in common with many constituencies in central Scotland – run-down, poor communications, over-dependence on one or two industries. Which means that its electorate will benefit from a strong Labour voice coming from Scotland MPs.’

    Copeland may have much in common with central Scotland, but its MP seems to be living in another world, if his ‘contribution’ to Sunday evening’s discussion is anything to go by. And the only strong voice coming from Labour in Scotland recently has been that we are better together with the Tories. Presumably the new leader will want to put forward other ideas between now and May 2015.

    ‘Moreover, Copeland has one of the finest Georgian towns in the UK. But for this not being widely known, I blame the BBC and other metropolitan media for giving poor coverage to peripheral UK.’

    That may well be the case, but has little to do with the future of the Scottish Labour Party, which is what Sunday evening’s discussion in The Westminster Hour was supposed to be about.

    I remain

    Yours etc. etc.

  18. And I would like Amber or similar rather than someone who opposes the Labour party in Scotland, who would be a good candidate for leader

    i don’t really know anything about the people mooted

    Every name mentioned seems to attract and incredible amount of vitriol from supporters of other parties examples

    Jim Murphy – “Murphy for leader? You are either bluffing or very stupid. Which is it?”


    Neil Fiindlay – “a toon councilor he’d be an unexceptional plodder, decidedly lacklustre in debates”

    Are there any other candidates?

    I cannot find a single comment supportive of any candidate,

    Are Scottish Labour supporters simply unwilling or unable to defend any of their candidates

    What would happen if no one stood? apart from humiliation and ridicule for Lab of course

  19. Spearmint,

    The Lib Dems still don’t have THAT many Labour-facing seats, and on figures like these Labour is hardly an unstoppable juggernaut, or at least no more than the Tories were from 1997-2005.

  20. I found a list of candidates on a Labour Party website, but 4 of them have already dropped out

    The potential ones left are

    Kezia Dugdale MSP

    Ken Macintosh MSP

    Jenny Marra MSP


    Jim Murphy

    Neil Findlay

    So would any of these make a good leader?

  21. I would have preferred drip-drip from Labour, but instead they seem to have gone for a whites-of-their-eyes strategy.

    Danger is in the meantime people don’t know what Labour stands for/they haven’t got any policies.

    Going into the election campaign they will likely have to win back lost voters, rather than be in the position of defending a slim polling lead.

  22. @Floating Voter

    whilst you are waiting for an authoritative voice to answer your question, might I offer the caveat that nominations have not yet opened for the post, and therefore to start panicking now would seem slightly hasty?

    Jim Murphy is one possible. Douglas Alexander would be IMO a more unifying option, but he’s a Westminster high-flyer and, as we know, Scottish Labour types still see Westminster as their principal goal in life…… thus their current problems…… IMO …..

  23. And in Scotland the Lib Dems will be helped by the SNP surge, because they have very, very few seats where the SNP are their leading competitors, but Labour to SNP switching will make it harder for Labour to take Labour-Lib Dem seats.

  24. In fact, as far as I know, Gordon is the only Lib Dem-SNP marginal in the country.

  25. @BP

    I have warned before about assuming that the term ‘marginal’ can be applied on the basis of 2010 results. On current VIs, the LDs may be reduced to Carmichael and Kennedy. Current marginals, rather than 2010 marginals, include Argyll, Gordon, Caithness and Sutherland and even their Edinburgh seat. That’snot to say that the SNP will win in these seats, bit they are now the main challenger and, without the personal vote would probably fall. Michael Moore’s seat may go Tory (as, under current VIs, might Dumfries and Galloway!)

    In fact, although LDs are in trouble if SNP get about 30%, Labour don’t get hit until the SNP sustain mid to high 30s, and then it’s like watching skittles tumble.


  26. @Floating Voter

    “Are there any other candidates?”

    I can’t believe no one’s suggested Tony Blair.

  27. Good Morning All, lovely day here.

    Some people warned a long time ago on UKPR about Labour’s leadership problem; Labour seemed to lack the will to win power after 2006 when they gave Tony Blair notice to quit.

    ROGER H. Thank you for your comment about TB; very interesting it is.

  28. John B,

    We don’t know the distribution of the increase in the SNP vote, so it’s fallacious to assume that they’re doing about as well in every seat as they are nationally. I’m not ruling out the SNP taking seats like Caithness and Sutherland, but assuming that they are the main challenger in such seats is a case of the fallacy of division (assuming that what is true of a population is true of every member of that population).

  29. @Rosie and Daisie

    An “analysis” that assumes that all of those Tory switchers to UKIP will return, yet UKIP will hold on to all those who were previously considering voting Labour, as will the Greens. We’ve seen a surge in UKIP support coinciding with the evaporation of the Labour lead, yet there’s a lazy assumption still at play that that surge has mainly done damage to the Conservatives. It really doesn’t wash. If there is a squeeze as the reality of casting a vote starts to loom, it’s likely to act to the benefit of both main parties.

    If you start with a mindset that believes that the Conservatives are wonderful and that no-one in their right mind should vote for anyone else, a miraculous recovery to 37%+ becomes a nailed on cert in the belief that voters will eventually come to their senses.

  30. Floating voter
    You mentioned the word vitriol which is the clue.
    If you speak up in Scotland for Labour you can expect the full range of abuse from death threats to being accused of sleeping with animals. In terms of the leadership in Scotland, I think that the most strongly supported candidate will be Jim Murphy for the fairly obvious reasons that Labour needs someone very high profile and able to cope with the by UK standards, vast quantities of bile and hatred which will be the lot of whoever is chosen. Murphy will also, of course, receive the greatest hostility within Labour as a centrist candidate but will in my opinion be very popular with voters. It is easily forgotten in current circumstances that the no majority in Aberdeen was about the same as the yes majority in Glasgow and the no majority in Edinburgh much greater.
    For other candidates, I doubt any other UK parliamentarian will want to fight Murphy but perhaps I might be wrong. In the Scottish Parliament Kezia Dugdale is an outstanding performer but in the view of most including her it is to early in her career. Neil Findlay is also in that category but is on the hardish left so may stand.
    The election will be in the college form so union support will be a significant factor.

  31. Nice Polls-amazing consistency.

  32. Amidst the gloom for Labour, the bright spark is that the fall in their VI has not translated into a rise of the Tory one. The VIs they have lost still look well within grasp. To get them back, they don’t need a new vision: it’s too late for that and they have one already (ie the same as always – a fairer, more socially just society). What they they need is the encapsulation of this vision in four/five solid , well thought-through, populistic policies, ones that are targeted on core and lower m/c voters, but are at the same time seem quite radical. A green tinge to these policies would be ideal. No idea right now what these policies might be! But there must be some decent minds at Labour central office who could come up with something along these lines.

    Is it “lazy” to believe that all the LD to Labour switchers will stay switched…………or not drift of to Greens for example ?…………is that “lazy” too-or a nailed on cert ?


  34. @Colin

    The only “lazy assumption” that I cited was that the UKIP surge “has mainly done damage to the Conservatives”. It is lazy because it discounts the evidence that the more recent UKIP surge coincided with the evaporation of the Labour lead. That is what makes an assumption lazy – blindly assuming something in the face of evidence that counters it.

    So as to your question: “Is it “lazy” to believe that all the LD to Labour switchers will stay switched…………or not drift of to Greens for example?”
    The answer is yes, because it ignores the evidence that the drifting off has already happened to some degree. The pertinent question is whether they might instead return back to Labour, especially in marginal seats. I haven’t yet seen anyone cite any evidence to argue directly that the Conservatives will be able to exert a squeeze in marginal seats, but that Labour won’t, but many are making that assumption implicitly.

  35. @ Floating Voter

    No candidates for the leadership have declared yet.
    Kezia & Jenny are saying they won’t stand. I doubt Ken Mac will stand again. Jim Murphy was said to have ruled himself out; but now is saying he’ll decide when nominations open. Neil Finlay is a regional list MSP. I don’t know him very well. I am keeping quiet at the moment because there’s an MSP who I’m hoping will put their name forward.

    It’s not sensible for a potential candidate to just throw her/his hat into the ring. It’s best to call people to make sure s/he has a decent level of support before s/he declares as a candidate.

    Regarding negative comments on social media about candidates, there’s no point engaging with them; it just encourages the ‘trolls’ to post more spiteful and vicious comments. It’s best to just let them chat amongst themselves.

  36. @NewForestRadical

    The other silver lining for Labour is that some of their loss of national support is down to their losses in Scotland, which add very little to the prospect of there being another Conservative government formed in May 2015. The Conservatives can’t really expect to pick up any more seats off Labour or the LDs due to Labour losses to the SNP. The situation in Scotland only helps the Conservatives in so far as it makes the formation of a stable Labour administration much harder to envisage. The Conservatives might then get a second bite at the cherry of winning a second 2015 general election courtesy of the actions of SNP MPs.

  37. Floating Voter,

    Along with Brown, Marra, Sarwar and Dugdale have ruled themselves out.

    We’ll know soon enough but the front runners seem to be Jim Murphy or Neil Findlay. An MP V an MSP!

    Murphy has the highest profile and therefore might get the membership vote as well as the MP’s, Findlay would do well with MSP’s but so might Murphy and he would also do okay with the Unions.

    Of course the danger for Labour with an electoral college system is that the two parliaments split each backing there man leaving the winner unable to command the support both chambers.

    Another worry given that there have been a few stories of Scottish Yes backing trade unionists withholding their political levy is that there could be a fair number of SNP supporters in the Union section.

    Probably not enough to be decisive but if you agree that as many as 1,400 of the 5,400 returned ballots in the Tory R&S open primary were spoilt it could see some people deliberately vote for a numpty ( at this point I will resist the partisan joke about potential candidates).

    One thing that we may well get out of this presuming it is overseen by the electoral reform society is an accurate figure for the Labour Partys Scottish membership.

    Now that would be interesting.

    I don’t know a great deal about Neil Findlay, but he seems more than just a “councillor” and seems pretty solid and straight talking. I do know enough about Jim Murphy to know that he is capable of publicly showing the best of the Labour Party while behind closed doors representing the worst.

    I am not sure if Neil Findlay could deal with the issues at the heart of Labour in Scotland, but I think he would have a go, I don’t think Jim Murphy would even try.


  38. @ John B

    Jim Murphy is one possible. Douglas Alexander would be IMO a more unifying option, but he’s a Westminster high-flyer and, as we know, Scottish Labour types still see Westminster as their principal goal in life…… thus their current problems…… IMO …..
    This, John, is where you give yourself away i.e: “as we know”; we don’t know anything of the sort; & it’s extremely unlikely that you “know” what even one MPs’ motivation is, never mind speaking of Scottish Labour “types” as if you know all of them.

  39. @Richard (“Where is their floor?”) – 29% most likely. Those who shifted to Lib Dem, and back can easily shift away again, if they feel it is warranted. However, in 2010 Labour got 42% in Scotland. So perhaps subtract 1.2% to allow for Lab at 28% (today’s poll – the current Scottish VI is uncertain). So we’re looking at sub-28% I think.

    That’s their worst possible floor, I think. Their realistic polling floor? I would say 30%. It depends if Ed goes from being ‘geeky’ and ‘not prime ministerial’ to ‘toxic’.

    @Welsh Borderer (“Is Labour keeping its powder dry as a deliberate strategy?”)

    I don’t think so. When Ed was elected, there was a mood that there was 4 years to build on things. Over that period, the big losses for the Conservatives, and the big gains for Labour have not generally been Labour’s doing. Perhaps they believed in the 35% strategy, and ‘doing nothing’ has become a habit.

    @floating voter (Murphy et al) – Why would Murphy, Brown and Doug Alexander risk their Westminster jobs? At worst they will be in opposition, and at best part of some coalition government (unless Ed does get an OM). In Holyrood, they will be leader of the opposition; a job that is not exactly sought after from within Labour’s ranks.

    Just as the EU is a constant source of division and internal injury for the Conservatives, as devolution will be a similar problem for Labour (in Wales too). There can only be one leader. Labour’s current problem is that the sitting government is not Labour, and can constantly highlight that the leader in Holyrood is not the leader of their party. If the leader in Westminster is seen as weak, then what does that make the leader in Holyrood?

  40. The Express is outraged again. I’ll not link, but will quote the main point:

    “Outrage as it emerges Labour’s proposed mansion tax will be ‘covered by MPs expenses'”

    “However, it has now emerged MPs who own a second home worth more than £2million will dodge the controversial tax.”

    It’s exactly this kind of thing that pushes voters away from Con / Lab / Lib.

  41. Thank you John, Amber, Peter, Statgeek

    I learnt more from your informative and courteous responses than from all the 2 pages of rubbish BTL in the G*ardian this morning

    i really don’t know why i bother with the comments sections, I rarely learn anything and i have to wade through a sea of posts from people who appear to be deranged

    “The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.”

  42. There can only be one leader.
    Why? e.g. At work, I can be the leader of one team but a participant in another team which somebody else leads.

  43. @Amber

    Perhaps I’m missing some candidates, but it looks like Murphy and no others at present (according to the few sources I checked – I’m not a news aficionado).

    If he is to be leader, surely he has to be elected as an MSP first? Who will fall on their sword, and will we have a Westminster by-election before May 2015?

    Will Scottish Labour be leaderless until May 2015?

  44. Does anyone have any predictions for the South Yorkshire PCC by-election? I must say the events of the last year have thrown me a bit. I came to Sheffield intending to fight Lib Dems, and now in the People’s Republic of South Yorkshire I’m on the front line against UKIP.

    I suspect Labour will win, but I’m in no way confident of that.

  45. @Amber

    “Labour” – the entity is one team. Scottish Labour might be seen as another team, but when push comes to shove, they have to push and shove in the same direction. Ergo, there must be one person to ensure this happens. Either one of the leaders of one team is the senior leader, or you get a third leader that outranks the two team leaders (and then you get into the more chiefs than indians scenario that is common in some public sector departments).

    Having a single leader is not some dictatorial ideal. It’s a prerequisite to having a well-led team. All direction must come from one direction, or otherwise, heads turn back and forth, looking for leadership.

    Whether you like it or not, Scottish Labour is not an equal team, with equal authority. It doesn’t even have equal wages.

  46. I imagine the Tories would welcome Jim Murphy stepping down in East Renfrewshire. More than any other Labour seat, Labour’s dominance there can be attributed to Blair and New Labour, as well as Murphy’s ability. If those factors were to disappear, and Labour were to lose a decent chunk to the SNP (whose presence in the seat is very limited) then the Tories might just nick the seat, in 2020 if not in 2015.

  47. Murphy will probably stand for Leader but heonly stand for Holyrood if he thinks Labour can win in 2016 and he will be First Minister.

    If it looks like another SNP win he will stay as the ” King Across the Water”. A lot of his backing will come from MP’s who don’t like Holyrood so won’t want him to go there.

    Scottish Secretary in a Miliband government would be ideal… He could play the role of Govenor General.



    “Clearly we are now seeing the Labour share edging down towards the 30% mark which is where I expect it to be on polling day. That’s half the battle nearly won”

    “The second objective is to get the Tory share up into majority territory and that solely depends on getting the kippers back; if Cameron can show enough Bulldog spirit over the next 6 months, surely that can be done”

    Glad to see you back PRESSMAN, thought you went into hiding thinking Stereo Kicks had got the boot from X Factor.

    Now back to the main event. Yes we are seeing Labour edging down to the 30% mark and that’s largely down to us foot soldiers and our relentless efforts up and down the country lamenting “Vote UKIP get EM” although in Scotland it took a slight twist and we went Lamonting and got Lamont!!

    PRESSMAN……. the foot soldiers have served you well, we have got the Labour VI down, we got shot of Lamont, we even stopped a hug-a-tree new forest dreadlocks attack on the PM yesterday in Leeds…we are exhausted and working 48 hour shifts!! When do we get our pay rise?

    Is it before the second objective to get the Tory share up into majority territory or after?

  49. Something struck me about all these discussions about ‘where the UKIP vote is coming from’ last night.
    Labour supporters emphasise how much is coming from Tories, Tory supporters emphasise how UKIP rise has coincided with Labour falls since mid 2012.
    But it is incredibly rare for anyone to mention that BNP got around 2% of the vote in 2010, and now we are sometimes getting not a single respondent in a YouGov sample of 2000 saying they will vote BNP. My guess is that almost all of those 2% have gone to UKIP, which would account for about 1/10 of UKIP support (and presumable a much higher number would have voted BNP in 2009).

  50. I am still going for a tiny majority for Labour as they hobble over the line, under 20 seats, which would make for an interesting 5 years. It’s all up for grabs at the moment though. I bet Lab and Liberals wouldn’t be so enthused about PR now with UKIP on 15-18%…politics eh??cynical?

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