We’ve had a busy day of voting intention polls today, four polls from Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes, and three of them showing the same lead. Topline figures are:

Ashcroft: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% (tabs)
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%
ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc) (tabs)

Leaving aside the tendency of Populus to show higher support for the Conservatives and Labour and lower support for others, the picture is pretty consistent. Three polls (as well as YouGov and Opinion polls at the weekend) are showing the same story – Labour and Conservative equal, and UKIP still polling very strongly. Whether there is any link there is a different matter – perhaps UKIP’s ongoing rise has attracted people who were previously saying they’d vote Labour (though not necessarily people who voted Labour in 2010) who see UKIP as a better anti-government vote, but there is always churn beneath the topline figures and things may very well be more complicated than a straight transfer between the two.


576 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft, Populus, ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. @ AC

    That’s a prediction, right? Because the Greens are in for a strong showing tonight (apparently)

  2. @OldNat

    The more I learn of Murphy’s politics the more I fail to see how someone like him can ever be successful in current Scottish politics. I really don’t see why he is standing. As urbane and genteel as he appears on screen, his policy baggage could fill a cargo plane.

  3. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I think it will be distinctive in a rather different way:

    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
    “A shame the BBC has refused to include the Greens in its election TV debate. They should see our @YouGov poll later tonight.”

  4. I was about to guess 1931! But I thought it was written by Hennessey

  5. Pressman’s line manager talking up the Greens. As has been Cameron.

    Just ponder what their motivation might be for doing so.

  6. Sorry peeps I meant to say that was my prediction. Sorry if I put your blood pressure up lol

  7. And can we stop talking about SLAB? The site is beginning to resemble a socialist brothel.

  8. RAF

    Being ex-SLab, I still find their internal politics fascinating!

    It’s a bit like being a Russian emigre in the BBC World Service trying to guess at the Politburo internal struggles from studying who stands where on the MayDay parade!

    (Jim would love watching all those missiles and military hardware).

  9. cb11

    Re your post, I’ve been saying for ages this will be a very difficult election to call accurately.

    I still think the principal factor will be the Tory party’s “nasty” image – whether deserved or not, and those are the Home Sec’s words, not mine, anyway – and the consequent reluctance to see them in power, alone, for the first time in 23 years after five very hard years.

    Add to that the demise of the LDs and the lack of attraction for the continuation of the current coalition.

  10. @Phil Haines

    Motivation = more Green, less Labour??

  11. My guess:

    TORY 32% LAB 33% UKIP 16% LIB 6% GRN 8%

  12. National Opinion Poll (YouGov): LAB – 34% (+1) CON – 31% (-1) UKIP – 17% (=) GRN – 7% (+2) LDEM – 6% (-2)

  13. YouGov:

    LAB – 34% (+1)
    CON – 31% (-1)
    UKIP – 17% (=)
    GRN – 7% (+2)
    LDEM – 6% (-2)

    So Greens taking more from LDs than Labour? Is that really the case or is this churn because in my experience while lots of Greens are 2010 LDs they’re more of the unaffiliated anti-Labour left than previously dyed in the wool Lib Dems.

    Not an awful poll for Labour on recent results, although still bad for both them and Tories and LDs in the grander scheme of things.

  14. Allan Christie

    “And can we stop talking about SLAB?”

    Only when people start typing out United Kingdom Independence Party instead of UKIP!

    (and out of respect for Amber, who complained about the total capitalisation [fair enough] a long time ago, i only capitalise the first two letters of the contracted name)

  15. Number Cruncher’s sources are good!

  16. Not bad for Labour though vote share still disappointing.

  17. Good late evening all.

    Greens and Lib Dems are much higher, here, than they will be in May 2015. IMHO, of course.

    No Con lead, yet.

  18. CATMANJEFF

    National Opinion Poll (YouGov): LAB – 34% (+1) CON – 31% (-1) UKIP – 17% (=) GRN – 7% (+2) LDEM – 6% (-2)
    ________

    Greens overtake the Lib/Dems? Oh Jesus of Nazareth!!

  19. New Thread

  20. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie
    “And can we stop talking about SLAB?”
    ….
    “Only when people start typing out United Kingdom Independence Party instead of UKIP!
    (and out of respect for Amber, who complained about the total capitalisation [fair enough] a long time ago, i only capitalise the first two letters of the contracted name)”
    _______

    Well that’s not going to happen so I suppose we just talk SLAB ;-)

    Not sure Murphy will get the unions behind him..Too far to the Right and seen as one of Lamont’s so called Dinosaurs.

  21. Will be rather difficult for BBC not to invite the Greens for the elections debate.

    More and more likely that these debates wouldn’t take place. Good for the non-Ukip parties as the media does a better job on taking Ukip apart than politicians …

  22. As I will have a vote I will probably vote for Sarah. Findlay is a pal of George Galloway who I really dislike. But I am tempted, in the cause of Scottish Independence to vote for Murphy.

  23. Couper

    Murphy just banged on about the SNP, no mention of the Tories. You see that is the problem with Scottish Labour, they never mention the Tories and only the SNP are bad.

  24. AC @ 10.38 pm:

    You wouldn`t think that SLAB only complain about the SNP, and not the Tories, from the comments here of SLAB supporters.

    On some things many of us agree with the SNP and against the Tories, on some things many of us agree with the Tories and against the SNP.

    Surely parties and their leaders have to be pragmatic

  25. David Welch

    And some of us agree with the Greens and not the SNP on some things, (or any combination of 2 parties on certain issues).

    I’m not convinced that constantly reciting “SNP bad” has ever served SLab very well.

    I suspect that 2015 vote will partly be determined on views of the constitutional issue (future not past) rather on the somewhat sterile Tory/Lab?UKIP arguments emanating from the south.

    2016, on the other hand, will be about the party most likely to govern well with whatever powers it turns out to have.

  26. DAVID

    I agree leaders and parties do have to have a pragmatic approach but I don’t see that from SLAB.

    They like to hide Scotland behind an iron curtain and block us all from the nasty Tory party. It doesn’t suit them to be fighting on two fronts, one the SNP in Scotland and two the Tories at Westminster.

    Just think, a SLAB hounding the Tories is not going to win them anything more in Scotland but hounding the SNP? Everything to lose to them!!

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