We’ve had a busy day of voting intention polls today, four polls from Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes, and three of them showing the same lead. Topline figures are:

Ashcroft: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% (tabs)
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%
ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc) (tabs)

Leaving aside the tendency of Populus to show higher support for the Conservatives and Labour and lower support for others, the picture is pretty consistent. Three polls (as well as YouGov and Opinion polls at the weekend) are showing the same story – Labour and Conservative equal, and UKIP still polling very strongly. Whether there is any link there is a different matter – perhaps UKIP’s ongoing rise has attracted people who were previously saying they’d vote Labour (though not necessarily people who voted Labour in 2010) who see UKIP as a better anti-government vote, but there is always churn beneath the topline figures and things may very well be more complicated than a straight transfer between the two.


576 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft, Populus, ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. Neck & neck & neck & neck….

    Guess this means yet more people saying how level pegging is good for their party/bad for the other guys.

  2. Lab flat lining in polls. As opposition party 5 years into austerity parliament astonishing how bad they % are. Tories also flat lining. UKIP going strong but how long will it last ? Everything going their way at the moment. They seem to be able to do no wrong. politics has funny way of turning tables.

  3. ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc)
    _____

    Lamont factor for Labour I think.

  4. labour aren’t flatlining. they’re sinking!

  5. SIMON

    “Lab flat lining in polls. As opposition party 5 years into austerity parliament astonishing how bad they % are”
    ________

    It’s something I have picked up on several times. Is it down to the UKIP factor or EM’s electability factor?

  6. I do wonder whether Kate Hoey is about to defect to the DUP after some of her recent Commons activities…

    She opened fire on EdM during the response to Cameron’s statement today, saying that “The British public are not concerned with who knew what when” after Ed centred his response on whether the government were aware of the possible increase some time back. She has also been very actively pro-unionist on Northern Ireland matters of late and, during tonight’s adjournment debate (Ian Paisley jr. on the subject of a factory closure in NI) is sat with the DUP.

    I might be reading too much into things, and it might be that she chooses to quietly retire… but she might just be about to create some horrid headlines for Ed.

  7. R and D (FPT)

    Just caught your comment Paul. I think you are correct but your last sentence makes me think you will be agreeing with a certain poster soon!

  8. having said that the tory vi is dire…it was just worse to begin with.

  9. Mili ‘s gang will be bricking themselves…they are helped by the fact the tories won’t pick up much vi.

  10. Populas has big 2 on 70%! Yet everyone else has them on 60-64%. I think they are under reporting UKIP. YouGov out yet?

  11. There’s a fascinating tendency for the Tories and Labour to be neck-and-neck recently, at least if the SNP are to be believed.

  12. So if Comres is right, Labour have made literally no progress through nearly 4-and-a-half years of austerity, with their principle competitor on the left having spectacularly imploded in popularity. That’s actually quite impressive.

    Can we now say that “Labour should be doing better at this stage” without it being very controversial?

  13. Bill Patrick

    OK we all know that we can’t measure Con/Lab/LD distribution in Scotland from these GB polls –

    BUT

    If Con & Lab were to be relatively close to each other here, then it wouldn’t be hard to see why.

  14. Oldnat,

    Even a Scotland-only poll would have to be interpreted carefully, since the number of people intending to vote in Scotland has presumably gone up a lot, and thus an “A voters have switched to B” analysis could be badly mistaken.

  15. Howard.

    Well who knows? Anyway, here’s wot I rote.

    “What the polls seem to show is a confused and disappointed electorate and no real change at all in Tory VI.

    The disappointment seems to largely be with Labour and their votes therefore heading mostly to Green, SNP and UKIP.

    The question is whether that will stick and my guess would be not.

    As always answering a polling question is very different to the rather more serious decision to be made about a future government: I don’t detect any real appetite for electing a Conservative government with an overall majority – or a repeat of this coalition.

    Having said that I can’t say I am that impressed with EM and really dislike his finger-jabbing and raised voice stuff. As someone mentioned before “cool” is better – especially when linked with cutting analysis.

    Both are missing in my view.”

    I would add that there is a lot of froth at the moment and therefore hard to smell the coffee. I would be more concerned if I detected even a smidgeon of real enthusiasm for a Tory OM.

    But I don’t.

    I thought the last thread hit yet new lows by the way with gay “jokes” about David Laws wittily linked to Cameron being “caught with his pants down”. Do we really have to suffer this stuff?

  16. Miliband as a personality was actually not losing Labour anything, in fact I’d argue he was winning votes by highlighting the areas Labour could do well in. The last few years I feel hes done really well in the role, taking cabinet heads and really hitting the governments unpopular policies.

    Now? All he talks about is the NHS. Which is fine, except it means nothing outside of England. That and the Tories are weaker in other areas. Why is Labour so focussed on just the NHS, whose insane policy was it? Clearly not their Shadow Health Secretary as hes well liked cross-party and the Conservatives have learnt the need for cross-party agreement on the NHS.

    The news Miliband took 12 months to let party activists know his plans for the bedroom tax are telling. Hes lacks ideas and confidence and will be holding back up until election name because some number or other; the NHS is popular so what could go wrong?

    Miliband is a centralising figure whose second big idea is English devolution. Its unravelling.

    Other than this; all this is coming down to Cameron’s utterly magnificent out-manoeuvring of Miliband on English Laws; first time hes really put the pressure on Miliband. He won the debate as soon as he opened his mouths – Scots and English don’t even disagree on this issue; Miliband should have taken the hit and accepted the change, he failed to show any foresight and with this and now the NHS – Cameron’s taking the fight to him.

  17. And on these polls, with a little ABT tactical voting the Lib Dems may come out of the 2015 election in a much better position that anyone could have suspected even this time last year.

  18. @ Bill Patrick,

    People last year expected the Lib Dems to be on 8%?

    Whatever Labour’s position (and I agree with you, they should be doing better), the Lib Dems are not benefiting from their collapse.

  19. Well, except in Watford.

  20. Bill Patrick

    Agreed. John B and I were discussing the greater volatility in VI in Scotland compared to England in the Ashcroft poll on the last thread.

    Seems likely that those new voters will be moving from “Couldnae be bothered” to Party X (or Y, or Z).

  21. Bill

    The reality is that no-one knows at the moment who will come out of 2015 with what.

    FPTP is almost biologically designed to cripple the likes of UKIP and what it will come down to, more than ever, will be tactical voting.

    My own feeling is that fear of an undiluted five years of single party rule mitigating against an OM will be facing up to the paradox that people are not very enthused by the coalition experiment either.

    Apart from Nick of course.

  22. @hoof hearted

    YouGov is up there. Apparently the Greens are on 6%.

    This really does look a bit poor for the big two though. I wonder how likely it is we’ll see them drop below 30% at some point with UKIP maybe hitting a record 20% if they win Rochester (mostly speaking of YouGov).

  23. Labour’s not doing well at present but rather better than the Tories and LibDems. The two parties that are are the SNP and UKIP but will that translate into seat gains in the GE? Probably not, I suspect, particularly for UKIP.

  24. @Jack Sheldon

    I’m not sure Kate Hey will be missed even in Vauxhall. She hasn’t appeared to have much time for any Labour leader.

  25. Spearmint,

    The point is that on 30-33% neither Labour nor the Tories are going to be picking up on that many Lib Dem seats (i.e. much more than half) even with the Lib Dems on 8%. On the UKPR swingometer, they still get 26 seats on a 30-30-8 result, and they could reasonably hope to do better with ABT tactical voting, especially in the South West where they have a lot of seats where Labour are irrelevant and it’s basically a straight Lib Dem-Tory fight.

    (26 seats would be more than the Alliance got in 1983, which is a sign of how they’ve successfully concentrated their vote in their key seats since then.)

    R&D,

    I was noting a plausible possibility given the current polling position, not making a prediction! I expect Labour to get about 34% and a small majority in 2015; I just find their current malaise fascinating.

  26. @ Pups,

    The current polling position seems to be that no one wants to vote for any potential party of government (except the SNP, thank you Old Nat and Allan).

    The Conservatives are polling at Hague levels, Labour are polling at Brown levels, and the fear that the Lib Dems might somehow remain in office has them at Archibald Sinclair levels. And Ukip can’t even poll as well as the SDP, much less any party that actually won elections.

    Caroline Lucas for Prime Minister?

  27. Rogerh,

    With about 7-odd polls saying that the Tories and Labour are doing about equally as badly, my interpretation is that they’re doing about equally as badly.

  28. you’re mad if you think Ev4el is a big vote winner. ukip is the big beneficiary and labour are experiencing a mini meltdown in scotland.

    Mili was complacent with his 35% strategy which is collapsing all around him. the one consolation is that the tory vi is dire too, and they are about to lose an actual seat. ukip have been rampant since the carswell defection reaching heights they only touched very fleetingly in the very high teens % wise.

  29. @ Bill Patrick,

    Their Labour facing seats are probably still going down, though. We saw at the local elections that Labour are still doing remarkably well in London even as they collapse everywhere else, and Redcar and Burnley seem like goners.

    Scotland might get complicated, but if those seats don’t fall to Labour most of them are sure to fall to the SNP.

  30. FRASER

    “Miliband is a centralising figure whose second big idea is English devolution. Its unravelling”
    ________

    So much so he even does his shopping at the Lidl central distribution centre instead of the company stores.

  31. Comparison chart of Scotland’s data, showing tonight’s polls with YG’s poll from yesterday.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2014/09/here/

  32. minty, 10.54

    What? Have you seen http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Watford-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf?

    LDs were clearly in 3rd place in Watford in August .

  33. @PETER CRAWFORD

    English Votes are not a vote winner. This is going to be big theme of Cameron’s election campaign – chipping at Labour support using UKIP, SNP, PLYD and their own party to break their VI down.

    English Votes is nothing to do with England and all about weakening Miliband in Scotland. Cameron doesn’t want, need, or expect Scottish seats. He can however reduce Labour’s seats – and – make moves to remove them from domestic policy entirely if he can form at the very least a minority backed by the other parties on individual issues. Tie English Votes and Scottish Powers in one bill and with the right incentive he only needs the Tories and SNP MPs – should Labour take a real tumble.

  34. Time for another revision of Populus’ methodology?

  35. No YG for tonight?

  36. Stutter,

    Yes: based on the evidence of the Ashcroft poll, Populus may have a systematic methodological bias in favour of the Lib Dems.

  37. AMBER STAR

    what planet are you on? yougov is at the top of the thread..

  38. Amber

    In the thread heading article.

  39. AMBER STAR
    No YG for tonight?

    Yes AW forgot to post it.

    TORY 37% LAB 28% UKIP 22% LIB 5% GRN 3%

    Don’t even ask about the Scottish cross break.

  40. I thought that was Sunday’s YG. I still see YG/Sun & think Sunday!

  41. the reds must be panicking now…even though i think they’ll win on seats…they must be wondering how low can the labour vi go…the lack of enthusiasm for labour and tories is pretty remarkable.

    i’m surprised how solid the tories’ vi is…they’ve flatlined for about a year in the low 30s but they ‘re not sinking lower…labour’s support seems softer than anyone could ever have imagined. I never thought they would get much below 34%, but they clearly have.

    i think the emperor’s new clothes moment was when mili forgot about the deficit and immigration in his conference speech. and then told the world that he’d forgotten. he didn’t seem serious then.

    all he had to do was do a semi serious speech and look like a prime minister in waiting. he flunked that badly, revealing his poor qualities as a communicator. I feel for the left sometimes. they don’t have natural leaders.

  42. @Stutter

    “Time for another revision of Populus’ methodology?”

    Why? I’ve come to quite like them and they consistently come up with the best results.

    :-)

    On the football front, and using the UKPR vernacular, taxi for Paul Lambert quite soon, I think.

  43. ALLAN CHRISTIE…………I’ll have 50 quid on that for May 2015. :-)

  44. CROSSBAT11……..I was at the Man U vs Chelsea match, 2 points thrown away, but the hospitality centre at Old Trafford is impressive, even got to meet Ryan Giggs, lovely chap, great sense of humour.
    Polling wise, all going well for the Blues, we’ll benefit from incumbency and Labour melt-down in Ecosse, clear Blue win in 2015, I think. :-)

  45. Crossbat11 @Stutter

    Populus online weighting method of asking current Party ID, then weighting back to 2010 estimates may be a bit dodgy in a turbulent period of political (dis)loyalties.

  46. I see Comres didn’t repeat their experiment where they prompt for UKIP (last time that increased the UKIP number by 5% and reduced the Tories by 2, Labour by 3)

    What if UKIP were actually on 24, Labour on 27 and Tories on 28, which is how it would look if that was repeated in this poll? That should surely get some attention and mean all bets are off for 2015.

    Looks like a post Rochester scenario that we could be seeing across the board in a few weeks time.

    Exciting times.

  47. x batty

    Seems the Villa flattered to deceive early on.

    At least you can be sure Burnley will finish beneath them – just got to identify another two rubbisher teams………………

  48. @Peter Crawford

    “they’ve flatlined for about a year in the low 30s but they ‘re not sinking lower…”

    On average the Tories have polled below 30 about once per week; Labour hasn’t been below 30 since June 2010.

  49. @Roger H

    Look at the trajectory, they will be below 30 with at least one pollster in the next week or two if this continues. Tories are stable now, Labour just keeps going down. Where is their floor?

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/charts/uk-fifteen-poll-averages.png

  50. is there a yougov to be tweeted tonight for tomorrows papers?

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