This week’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here. Topline voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6% – as with Friday’s YouGov/Sun poll and the Opinium/Observer poll Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck. Note that the poll was conducted on Thursday night and Friday daytime, so most of it will be before David Cameron’s statement on EU funding.

In a referendum on the EU 41% of people would vote to stay in, 40% would vote to leave. The small lead to stay in is pretty typical of YouGov’s recent polling on EU membership. David Cameron is most trusted to get the best deal for Britain from the EU – Cameron is on 26%, ahead of Nigel Farage on 15% and Ed Miliband on 12%. It’s probably a case of least bad, rather than a positive endorsement though as asked directly about Cameron’s handling of our relationship with the EU only 30% think he is doing well, 55% badly.

64% support the principle of putting limits on immigration from the EU, but they are more divided when faced with potential obstacles. If limiting EU immigration meant breaking EU law 36% think that the government should limit immigration anyway and break the law, 37% think they should not (made up of 22% of people who support EU immigration and 15% who oppose it but think the government needs to follow the rules). If limiting EU immigration was only possible through leaving the EU 41% think Britain should leave, 33% think we should not (made up of 21% who support EU immigration and 12% who oppose it, but would accept it if the alternative was leaving the EU).


379 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 16, GRN 6”

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  1. Allan Christie

    “If it means booting the prospect of another PM coming from a Scottish seat in the wake for the nations aspirations then that can’t be a bad thing”

    If you think that’s a price worth paying that is your loss and everyone else in Scotland – the rest of us in the UK won’t shed too many tears (although I was one of the small minority of people who actually quite liked Gordon Brown ).

    All I care about is at UK GEs there are 40+ MPs one way or another lined up on our side – what label they choose to call themselves and however semi-detached they want to be from the UK mainstream is up to them.

  2. ROGERH

    “Scottish Labour distancing itself from the London hierarchy could improve its prospects in Scotland”
    _______

    But what about their MP’S…It’s just my opinion but they appear to be in some sort of limbo.

    So do they become more controlled from branch ALBA and what narrative do they fight on? Opposing the Scottish Gov and pretending everything at Westminster is fine or do they oppose the Tories along with the SNP which in turn might unmask who Labour were during the indy ref and smash their Hegemony in Scotland?

  3. @Laszlo – cool as in not hot. Does it have a different meaning where you are?

  4. @Allan Christie

    “Whatever way Scottish Labour choose to go is up to them. I wont be voting for them any time soon.”

    Well there’s a surprise.

    I might follow your lead and take up the habit of spending a large part of each day opining on the failings of the Conservative Party in England, drawing on my unique insight that stems entirely from my being English, for the benefit of the numerous Scots here.

  5. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie
    _____
    But remember that we actually know nothing about the comparative strengths of the parties, who operate outside Scotland (or are aggregated with one – like the SGP) from the Scottish crossbreak.
    It could well be random noise
    _______

    I think in these corridors its called the Roger Mexico effect!!

  6. @Candy @Chrislane

    If you are not angry at injustice (which is what I said) there is little point in being in the Labour Party – unless you are poor and should benefit. It is chasing the swing voters that has lost the voters enthusiasm.

  7. @Miserable Old Git – yours of 10.35 last night

    I am suitably humbled by your indignant response to mine of earlier yesterday evening…….
    Will try better in future…

  8. Hello Candy and Laszio.

    I think cool means approachable, sympathetic, able to laugh, to sing, to make poetry, to inspire, to see from where the other guy is coming, able to build bridges, to go light on doctrine, to be pragmatic with methods in order to win.
    A cool person is someone with whom we might wish to have dinner or at least a pint of good beer, or a glass of good red wine.

  9. PAUL A

    I don’t really see it as a big deal wither a PM comes from Scotland or not.
    If the current set up of the UK remains then yes I want to see a strong contingent of Scots MP’S in Westminster but that doesn’t mean it has to be from Labour.

    Other parties do have a wee space where one can sneak in a wee cross in the wee ballot paper in wee booth on polling day…Think oot of the box man!!

    If however Scotland does get Devo Max or something close to it then yes the prospects of a PM coming from a Scottish seat might be a long shot.

  10. PHIL HAINES

    “I might follow your lead and take up the habit of spending a large part of each day opining on the failings of the Conservative Party in England, drawing on my unique insight that stems entirely from my being English, for the benefit of the numerous Scots here”
    ____

    You’re so kind…Okay the floors all yours, take it away!!

  11. Couper2802 – you can care about injustice without being overly emotional about it. Because it’s not the degree of caring that matters, but whether you can deliver solutions.

    It tends to be cool considered types who deliver the best solutions. The emotional over-wrought types consume so much energy with their display of caring that there is precious little left over for anything else.

    Take Obama (I know Laszlo will disagree with everything I say, but hey!). He came to power just after Lehman brothers tanked the American economy, in the worst depression since the 1930’s, and he fixed it. The United States is not only doing better than any other European country (including the UK), in economic terms Obama is delivering better than Roosevelt did at a similar stage after the great depression. And he delivered Obamacare – it’s only a year since it came into force but the number of uninsured Americans has already fallen by 25% and it looks like prices are starting to come down at the edges (it will take longer to see real benefits there).

    He’s not revered like Roosevelt, you could even say he is derided for his coolness. But I would argue that a person only has so much energy and prioritising histrionic display and performance comes at the expense of achievement (of course those those who care more for the appearance of things than the substance would disagree).

  12. Re: yesterday evening’s discussion on Copeland

    The participants (and you know who you were!) seem to have mistaken James Reed for a BBC journalist. He is not. He is the Labour MP for Copland and was on The Westminster Hour to peddle the Labour party line à la (le?) Spin Doctors. He was obviously not there to do any serious thinking about the real situation in Scotland. That’s what I was complaining about.

  13. Ashcroft % of VI definitely voting that way

    Lab 61%, SNP 57%, Con 56%, UKIP 49%, Grn 32%, LD 31%.

    (Plaid actually top the list. 4 of their 5 supporters are definite PC. Only 1 BNP of their 3 will definitely vote that way [Safe to say they won’t be PC in any sense of the term]!))

  14. Candy – Lehman Brothers did not tank the American economy.

  15. Also Ashcroft % of VI definitely voting that way

    All GB 50% : non-SNP Scots 31%

  16. @candy

    Get the impression few in the US agree with you. he’s a Chicago Senator, outside of an Edinburgh banker the most idealistic man in the entire world.

  17. Wolf – “Get the impression few in the US agree with you.”

    He’s very detached and doesn’t do the “I feel your pain” thing at all. And a lot of people are miffed that he’s not pretending to be their dad comforting them after they scraped their knee.

    But I think history will judge that stuff to be unimportant and that he dealt with the important stuff quite well.

  18. Ashcroft % of VI definitely voting that way, by E&W regions

    SE 53% Midlands 47% North 52% Wales&SW 51%

    So not much sign of much greater fluidity in voting certainty between these areas.

  19. @Amber – yours of 12.52 (and one or two others previously on this thread)

    I confess to a certain degree of confusion. When I ask you genuine questions about how you see the developments in Scottish Labour you seem to regard it as some sort of personal attack.
    Either you are in denial about what is happening (which I think highly unlikely) or we are at cross purposes.

    I am not a member of any party. I happen to believe, for a host of reasons, that Scotland ought to be an independent country. I also believe that, in order to function, democracy needs real alternatives available to the electorate, something which Labour seems determined to deny us. And having read much of this thread, some people opine that Labour is determined to deny us this at a UK level, not just at a Scottish level.

    I am entirely in agreement with yours of 1.16 and 1.46, and would include my own local Labour MP amongst those who work hard.

    In conclusion, all I am trying to do is interpret/understand the polling evidence along with the political events of the day…..
    Is that such a crime?

  20. Guys, slightly concerned re the constant Scottish (North British) referances. Surely, this is an all British site?

  21. @Candy

    Comparing Miliband to Obama is a bit of a stretch. In any case Obama’s 2007 campaign was far closer to Labour in ’97 than anything Labour are doing now.

  22. @Amber – yours of 12.52 again

    If an MP is elected to represent his/her constituents in matters which concern those constituents, then it seems to me to be perfectly reasonable for such MPs to refrain from opining or voting on matters which are of no concern to their constituents.

    The SNP MPs’ refusal to participate in matters which, in their opinion, are of no interest to their constituents seems to me to be perfectly justifiable. If the constituents are not happy with this approach they will choose someone else next time round.

  23. Hookeslaw – “Candy – Lehman Brothers did not tank the American economy.”

    You are right. Bush did. It remains true that Obama was inaugurated in Jan 2009 when a full blown recession had already taken hold. He’s managed to deliver five consecutive years of growth, which every single other economy in the world would take your arm off for.

    @Couper2802 – I thought we were comparing Kinnock to Obama? What has Kinnock actually achieved, apart from his caring rhetoric? He was Transport commissioner but achieved nothing of note in his time of office, unlike say Peter Mandelson who had some big trade deals to his credit during his time at the Commission, or Mario Monti who did some serious anti-trust stuff when he was commissioner. All of Kinnock’s energy seems to have gone into his speeches leaving nothing left over. But one can’t live on speeches alone…

  24. @Old Nat

    Thanks for the Ashcroft poll link. Very interesting from my perspective how many Scots say they might vote differently from their present expressed view come next May. It’s all to play for, and it will be interesting to see if that number (60%) remains high for the remainder of the run-in, or drops as Labour regains control of the situation.
    (ahem!)

  25. I wonder if tonight’s Yougov poll will show another neck & neck or a small Tory lead now that it will have taken in some of the EU £1.7 billion claim from the UK?

    If it has then I’m expecting a small lead for the Tories.

  26. John B

    Certainty to vote is always worth keeping an eye on too. From Ashcroft 7-10 likely to vote – by geography

    Sco 89% SE 75% Wales&SW 75% Midlands 71% North 64%

  27. Allan Christie

    “If it has then I’m expecting a small lead for the Tories.”

    I wonder if the news caught the end of the fieldwork for Ashcroft (24-26 Oct) and helped that 3% Tory lead in England?

  28. @Old Nat

    ‘Certain to vote’ has been way higher in Scotland than in other parts of the UK for some time – indyref effect no doubt.

    I was referring to the fact that only 40% of Scots who expressed a view were certain that this was how they would vote come May (or did I misread the figures?).
    Now this expressed volatility seems to me to be an excellent strategem: let the parties work for my vote; I’m not making any promises yet! It also suggests that Scottish Labour could swell make a come back from its present rather unfortunate position.

  29. @AC

    It’s interesting. DC’s position on this is starting to look shaky. Today it was revealed that Nicky Morgan wrote to the PM in March stating that something urgently needed to be done about the change in statistical methods leafing to a hefty UK bill.

  30. John B

    You were right. Certainty as to which way to vote 10% lower jn Scotland than in England – but that is more heavily concentrated in the non-SNP voters.

    I’d guess at there being a chunk of the SNP current VI that could go back to Lab if Lab seen as fighting for Scottish interests, and a chunk of the Lab vote willing to go SNP if Lab doesn’t come over well to them.

    Might also be a reasonable number of Con/Lab/LD willing to vote tactically ABS.

    Going to be fascinating to watch.

  31. Leafing? I’m clearly anticipating the Autumn Statement.

  32. RAF

    LOL

  33. “In the words of the great RR” said Pressman.

    The name Roy Rogers came to mind straightaway.

  34. John B

    Re voting uncertainty

    I was thinking in terms of the old politics (old habits die hard).

    More of the uncertainty will lie in those 15-20% more likely to vote for the first time.

  35. ADGE3

    RR – I suppose he was a kind of Roy Rogers. He did have a great stock of jokes but the best was when he was trying to wriggle out of his involvement in the Iran-Contra affair.

    “A few months ago I told the American people I had no knowledge of the arms deal with Iran in exchange for hostages – my heart still tells me that’s true, but the facts now say differently.” – priceless – I can just imagine an adulterous husband trying that excuse with his wife when she discovers his affair!

  36. @Peter Crawford

    Yeah, let’s not talk about the SNP surge during and after the Scottish referendum or the Green’s shooting up from nowhere.

    Unlike the 80s and the 90s we now have a divided right and a divided left at the same time. You know, like the way the system is meant to work – people choosing parties according to their policies rather than their brand.

  37. Oops “Greens”. Rogue apostrophe.

  38. Hookes Law

    Re:Lehman’s.

    Angels an pin heads. The American economy was at the edge of the precipice, but it was undoubtedly the cack-handed approach to dealing with Lehman’s that pushed the financial sector off and turned a disaster into a catastrophe.

  39. OLDNAT

    “I wonder if the news caught the end of the fieldwork for Ashcroft (24-26 Oct) and helped that 3% Tory lead in England?”
    ________

    I think it has. England is closer to the EU ( geographically) and people there might think that because of this they will have to fork out more per head than the rest of the UK for the £1.7 billion.

  40. RAF
    @AC

    “It’s interesting. DC’s position on this is starting to look shaky. Today it was revealed that Nicky Morgan wrote to the PM in March stating that something urgently needed to be done about the change in statistical methods leafing to a hefty UK bill”
    ____________

    Well it’s one for EM to bring up at P.M.Q’S. If Cameron has been caught with his pants down then I dear say David Laws will be licking his lips.

    I’m looking forward to that autumn statement lol.

  41. The SNP affects a tenth of the country. the green thing is nothing like ukip. not one person in 20 could identify natalie bennett. I expect nigel farage’s name recognition is over 60% right now.

  42. @Peter Crawford

    So the SNP and Greens have no bearing on Labour’s slide in the polls or Labour’s likely seat cound and percentage share of the vote at the GE. That’s nice.

  43. P Cairns.

    Pretty simple. Over the past 2 years, About 10% of the 2010 Lab voters have moved from Lab to UKIP/Green/Nat whilst about 15-20% of 2010 LD voters who had moved to Lab are now supporting UKIP/Green/Nat. That pretty much explains where Lab’s support has fallen over the past 18-24 months.

    The question is: will those voters stay away from Lab when the crunch comes?

  44. When is the You Gov poll out tonight? Is it worth waiting up for? Extremely early start tomorrow.

  45. @Reginald

    Usually 10.30pm

  46. Erratum:
    About 10% of 2010LDs, not 15-20%.

  47. Thanks, I’ll probably see it in the morning then.

  48. And double erratum

    Peter Crawford, not Cairns.

    Been a long day. Some of us have work to do you know…

  49. Mapping of E&W I hadn’t seen before –

    “Nigel Farage is most popular in areas where immigration is lowest ”

    http://www.cityam.com/1414419679/ukip,-mapped-nigel-farage-most-popular-in-areas-with-the-fewest-immigrants

  50. “Nigel Farage is most popular in areas where immigration is lowest”

    Could be because they’re economically-deprived areas which offer few prospects for migrant labour.

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