Opinium’s fortnightly poll for the Observer tonight has topline figures of CON 33%(+5), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 18%(+1), GRN 4%(nc). This is the first time that Opinium haven’t shown Labour ahead since March 2012, before the Omnishambles budget.

Yesterday’s YouGov/Sun poll that also Labour and the Conservatives equal, but of course, we have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times due tonight or tomorrow morning…

263 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 33, LAB 33, LD 6, UKIP 18, GRN 4”

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  1. ……actually TOH, on reflection you have been consistently upbeat about prospects .

    Allan Christie @ 11.50 am:

    “I think you are mischeivously inventing or exaggerating difficulties for Scottish Labour”

    I would say it’s somewhere in between. ;-)

    “A good party leader has to organise their troops to cope with the actual circumstances existing meantime. Just as important now, if not more important compared to Holyrood for Labour voters, is what happens at

    Westminster. Tax and war and foreign relations, especially dealing with the EU, are crucial matters for us.
    So Johann Lamont showed herself to be unsuitable for carrying on as leader, with her statement that the main focus for the Scottish party should be on Edinburgh”

    The problem for Labour is their set up. They treat their party like their local government policies and like everything to be centralised.

    The SNP have a Westminster leader Angus Robertson and Alex Salmond as leader in Scotland, it works well for the nationalists so why can’t Labour have a Westminster leader for their Scottish MP’S and the same fro their crop at Holyrood?

    And why would Johann Lamont have to concern herself with the EU and foreign relations? both are not devolved so you can see from the very outset her position as Leader for the Scottish MP’S at Westminster was doomed to fail.

    Labour need to separate the party in Edinburgh from the prehistoric Dinosaurs at Westminster….Let go of centralisation and have two distinct party leaders.

  3. @Valerie
    “If Ed, who I voted for, is replaced then I’ll cancel my membership. I can’t be the only Labour Party Member who feels this way.”

    Me too! In fact, if David had been elected, I would have left the LP. I couldn’t face another 13y of unadulterated New Labour.

  4. Have police Scotland put out an arrest warrant for Nick Clegg?

    His party owe the Scottish police £800,000. That money could fund more front line services and save lives.

    Has Scotland got a extradition treaty with England?

  5. New thread

  6. @Candy
    In your your post of 25 Oct time 10.46 you argue that the extra amount of £1.7 billion for Britain to pay to the EU is wrong. You say that it must be wrong because a poor country such as Greece is being asked to pay more, whereas a rich country such as Germany is being asked to pay less.

    I am not an expert. I have looked up the article on the BBC news website, and I’m still not an expert.

    However, on the specific question of a poor country such as Greece being required to pay more, how can this be justified?

    I would guess that Greece receives benefits – payments from the EU to help it. It is perfectly possible that the EU discovers that there has been an overpayment of benefits to Greece, possibly due to Greece’s change of circumstances, and the EU asks for Greece to pay back the overpayment.

    I look at it in the same way as tax and benefits which we know in Britain. Speaking personally, this has happened to me. My local authority told me that they had overpaid a benefit to me and that I would have have to pay it back. I would guess that that is similar to what has happened to Greece. There has been an overpayment, Maybe.

  7. ADGE3 – Greece doesn’t receive any benefits aka net transfers (the last time western European countries received any was in 2007 – since then the net transfers go to the Eastern Europeans).

    Greece has received loans, which they have to repay in full with interest. Loans that have to be repaid are not benefits any more than mortgages are.


    Thanks for your 15:37 reponse, which is pretty much what I would have expected from a Labour supporter who is happy that all real decision making should be in the HoC, and where we disagree almost completely because I’m a localist rather than a centralist. I find the SNP a bit too centralising in Government, although in fairness they haven’t had the opportunity to replace Council Tax with a real local income tax because existing powers don’t allow it, for example.

    EVfEL is surely a matter for England and nobody else. Although having a modern democratic English parliament in place of the existing HoC would be fairer, if that’s what they want then they should have it. Perhaps Labour would be better advised to join the call for a proper constitutional convention and actually put forward progressive views for a change.

    If Brown does “play a major part in delivering a reasonable balanced settlement” I’ll be very surprised indeed, given his immediate back-tracking on neo-federalism and home rule regarding taxation powers, as I will also be surprised if Darling says any more on Devo-Max.

    I find your suggestion that, if necessary “Gordon should make clear what are the sticking points and what are Scottish Labour`s reasonable demands” astonishing. Nobody in the Smith commission should be making demands for their own parties. I realise some will, of course, but it is to be hoped that the electorate will punish them in 2015 & 2016 for so doing.

    Why you suggest that “Devo-max appreciably greater than present devolution cannot be obtained without setting the UK on the route to break-up” I cannot imagine. It works well for Man and the Channel Islands, and could work well for Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland given goodwill and a simple new joint committee of the relevant Parliaments could negotiate the “service charges”.

    Short of something along those lines, IndyRef2 will be along pretty soon.


  9. AC @ 4.45 pm:

    You are probably right on it being better to have two Labour leaders, one of the Holyrood MSPs and one for the MPs elected from Scotland. But surely one strong leader should be capable of managing both groups, then the danger of moving in different directions would be ruled out.

    I don`t back you on the prehistoric dinosaurs at Westminster.

    And on the need for a strong Scottish voice in dealing with the EU, consider the CAP. Although agriculture is largely devolved, having the DEFRA minister in charge of UK negotiations is not satisfactory. Just read the views of Scottish farmers on Owen Paterson.

    This is one place where we need to improve on present devolution.

  10. BZ:

    I don`t know if you see my reply of 6.13 pm, as it is now said to be “awaiting moderation”.

    And I`m hooked on the tennis with Andy Murray just having had an amazing win and totally exhausted himself in the process.

    So apologies if I don`t reply later tonight.


    No worries. I suspect we’re not going to agree on anything political anyway.

    Just watched Murray myself and agree he played well, although he may need to up his game for the ATP finals at the dome next month to make the semis.


  12. @Ed

    “This means many are not contributing when claiming more in housing benefit and tax credits exceeds income tax and NI paid. ”

    I’ll believe that if and when I see some actual evidence to support it.

  13. @ADGE3

    Quite. It has nothing to do with whether a country is rich or poor, just whether it’s overpaid or underpaid over the relevant period.

    The FT gives possibly the best explanation:

    “Q. Why is the payment so large? A. It is not large. The reservations on Britain’s national accounts and those of most other EU countries date back to 2002 – for Greece they go back further – so the €2.1bn is less than €200m a year. That amounts to 0.01 per cent of GNI a year. It is almost a rounding error, but one that adds up to something larger over 11 years.”


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