ComRes have a new poll of Rochester and Strood out tonight that shows UKIP with a solid lead. As far as I can recall it’s the first ComRes by-election poll this Parliament. Like all constituency polls it was done by telephone, and with a healthy sample size by constituency polling standards of 1500.

Topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 21%, LDEM 3%, UKIP 43%, GREEN 3%. The only previous Rochester & Strood poll was by Survation at the start of the month – that showed a nine point lead for UKIP. Obviously one has to be careful about direct comparisons between polls from different pollsters using different methodologies, so it would be wrong to draw too many conclusions about how opinion might have moved between the two polls (differences could be down to methods), but it certainly doesn’t show any obvious sign of the Conservatives eating into UKIP’s early lead.


705 Responses to “ComRes show UKIP 13 points ahead in Rochester”

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  1. “I happen to intensely dislike Harriet Harman. Its got nothing to do with that persons gender, but about numerous other factors. Of course, it would always be credited by R&D as sexist”

    That is just ridiculous. If you criticise anyone for a well-argued reason that is fine by me. The fact is I have only ever mentioned it when you refer to women in derogatory terms – which are only used because they ARE women. And women are extremely vulnerable in all sorts of ways in our world.

    Whilst I agree with Wood about men also occasionally being picked on you don’t really need to be that observant [or sensitive] to notice that is is predominantly females who are victims of such comments.

  2. CARFREW

    A question, the answer to which is beyond my knowledge.

    My gut feel would be “yes” .

    But the answer must lie with local decision makers. Only they will know what hinterland constitutes a rational agglomeration capable of attracting companies & generating jobs.

    As I understand it the announcement on Monday is not just HS3, but a package of devolved powers & spending to the key local authorities & organisations.

    I think thats the real point of an initiative like this. Give them the wherewithall & let them get on with it.

  3. “Frankly, I just let these people get on with their silly pc labels. By the way, I am not crazy about Nigel Farage. He is a middle aged white man who dresses like me and is right wing, I cannot think of an IST”

    —————

    Farageist.

    Btw I would just like to say I read everybody’s posts. Sometimes you have to speed read on the first pass in case AW zaps ’em!!

  4. The grammar police have all been redeployed to Liddle and Aldi, where they stack shelves and groan at the “Less than Nine Items” notices.
    But your post is a shocker. Take the middle paragraph: a split infinitive; several missing apostrophes & hyphens; commas all over the place, and so on.
    How about:

    “I intensely dislike H. Harman, not because she’s a woman but for a number of other reasons. Nevertheless, R & D would of course brand my dislike of her as sexism. I have always intensely disliked the ex-Rotherham MP, McShane. Let’s ignore his dreamt-up Scottish surname; his origins lie somewhere in eastern European. In R & D’s mental universe, therefore, my dislike of him would be characterised as racist.”

    [In fact McShane was born & brought up in Glasgow of a Polish father & Scottish mother (McShane.]

  5. “I’m ignoring the rest of the nonsense in your post for good reason.”

    ———-

    I read it all and it’s ok, there’s nothing about Thorium in it.

    @AC

    So long as you’re not going elsewhere for your stats and stuff. I did notice you started citing twitter on riots and stuff during the Indy thing but we’ll let that pass. At least you’re not Thoriumist…

  6. @Colin

    I agree, it’s probably better to let the local peeps sort it out. There’s a part of me that would wanna identify the key ingredients in order to make sure though…

  7. CARFREW

    “Btw I would just like to say I read everybody’s posts. Sometimes you have to speed read on the first pass in case AW zaps ‘em!!”
    _______

    I also read everyone else’s posts and always try to respond to anyone who has left me a comment.

    The comment I made last night (tongue in cheek) was brought up by AMBER and her response to it in my view was proportionate so I left it at that and responded to the rest of her post regarding Scottish Labour.

    It had been dealt with but 15 hours later somebody else just had to get the inevitable predictable dig.

  8. @R&D
    “Whilst I agree with Wood about men also occasionally being picked on you don’t really need to be that observant [or sensitive] to notice that is is predominantly females who are victims of such comments.”

    I hadn’t noticed it. The names that come to mind as primary targets, there’s a little Widdecomb, but mostly various fat men & Griffin. Even Milliband, were he Edwina would he get so much mention of his looking ‘weird’/ugly?

    I see it a LOT more with women than men in general purpose ‘celebrities’, but my perception is that the reverse is true in politics, it seems to be seen as less acceptable to criticise a womans looks than a mans. Probably just the blind elephants & men though.

    “And women are extremely vulnerable in all sorts of ways in our world.”

    More to namecalling than men?

  9. CARFREW

    Ah come on now…with ref to the riots I did highlight that I was duped by a fake City of Glasgow twitter account and just to ignore what I had posted.

    I learned my lesson and stay well clear of social media sites like twitter because I find it impossible to distinguish fact from myth on they sites.

  10. @AC

    lol, I only mentioned the twitter thing ‘cos it was the only example I could think of you moonlighting. (And I didn’t think it appropriate to be going down the other route and asking about pics of Emmanuelle Béart or Sophie Marceau…)

  11. Reading the front page of the Guardian, I wonder whether its fashionable for all failed Labour politicians to blame EM, rather than address their own shortcomings.

    Now Lamont has suggested that EM’s prevarication on the bedroom tax caused Labour to lose significant support in Scotland, and that Westminster Labour control freakery suffocated SLAB’s attempts to promote policies with greater appeal in Scotland.

    Really?

    So it’s all London’s fault is it? I didn’t see SLAB laying into Blair’s control freakery, which was far more ROC than EM’s. I also see Lamont’s people are studiously avoiding pointing fingers at Labour’s Glasgow connection – I daresay all Scots – who hold more sway over SLAB policy than Westminster Labour.

    Lamont should face the facts: she and her team have failed to challenge the SNP.

  12. @chouenlai
    It was not even remotely dreamt up, it’s his mothers family name.

  13. @Roly
    I don’t understand how you can “dislike Harriet Harman intensely” unless you’ve met or had personel dealings with her. Maybe you have?

  14. And I don’t like it when women make jibes about a man’s appearance as though it’s ok to behave just like ‘the lads do’.

    I just think “grow up”.

  15. @AC

    “The comment I made last night (tongue in cheek) was brought up by AMBER and her response to it in my view was proportionate so I left it at that and responded to the rest of her post regarding Scottish Labour.”

    ————

    Well, it opens a can of worms, and is liable to get a bit tetchy, so if you take my advice you’ll enjoy the rest of your Saturday sans tetchiness. I am going to start by going to pick up a new toaster now that Tesco are doing something right and doing click-and-collect round the corner.

    I know it’s not very exciting, but finding a toaster that meets my personal philosophy on toasters is no easy task…

  16. RAF

    It’s seldom that all the right or all the wrong is only on side in these matters.

    What should concern us on this site are the likely effects on polling.

    It’s being reported that Miliband wants the election for the new “leader” in Scotland to be done and dusted in 6 weeks, which won’t allow any time for a more stable relationship between the Central Party and their Scottish area to be resolved.

    There will continue to be demands from within Labour in Scotland for real devolution within the Party. Those demands will continue to be resisted by those determined that such will never happen.

    Such tensions don’t normally result in a party working together to best effect – especially when they are played out in public.

    It is “common knowledge” (therefore suspect!) that a divided party does not inspire confidence in the electorate.

  17. @VALERIE
    I intend to have a good dinner, but that is several hours away.
    I cannot express on this site my reasons about Harman, it would be banned.

  18. Seems to me we do need a poll of Scots constituencies. If the the SNP do well against labour that could deprive them of a majority. Surely this would make a lib lab coalition quite likely, Milliband may well need them for an ‘English’ majority in any case.

  19. @Southwest.
    You seem rather stuck in the Labour will win groove. If things are as bad for Labour as predicted in Scotland, you may have some form of
    (horror of horrors) Tory government.

  20. CARFREW

    Like I say, no more moonlighting to twitter lol

    Watch out for that Tesco toaster. A few weeks back I bought a Tesco value toaster for my flat (cost £6.00) and when I used it for the first time it caught fire.

    Either I was stupid for not checking where they had put the instructions or it was the manufactures fault for putting the instructions in the toaster!!.

    I take on board your point btw regarding opening a can of worms..lesson learnt ;-)

  21. SOUTHWEST

    “Seems to me we do need a poll of Scots constituencies. If the the SNP do well against labour that could deprive them of a majority. Surely this would make a lib lab coalition quite likely, Milliband may well need them for an ‘English’ majority in any case”
    _______

    That would be interesting but in all 59 constituencies? Maybe a few Labour held seats just to test the water.

    If the UK polls are believed then I can’t see Labour or the Tories counting on a coalition with the Lib/Dems because they might well be down into single figures in terms of seats after the GE.

  22. Allan Christie @ SOUTHWEST

    Ashcroft said he was going to poll in Labour constituencies in Scotland – not that he said how many.

    A selection covering different parts of the country with a range of majorities would be good.

  23. OLDNAT

    Cheers.
    …..

    “A selection covering different parts of the country with a range of majorities would be good”
    _____

    It certainly would give us a much clearer indication where Labour are hemorrhaging support.

  24. Some of the exchanges has become weirder here (reading regularly, but try not to post as it’s unlikely (lack of time) that I could come back to reply).

    Anyway, it would be interesting to know (poll) the influence, both direct and indirect, e.g. BBC use of stories) of newspapers. I haven’t seen such a sustained attack on the PM as in today’s Financial Times (Saying that he was immoral), deliberate misinterpretation in the DT, vagueness of the Guardian, silliness of Mirror (I couldn’t bring myself to look at the DM).

    So it would be interesting to know rather than just assuming that if printed press mattered, it would be the Metro.

  25. @LASZLO
    I cannot speak about the others, but I read the DT everyday and do not find deliberate distortions or misinterpretation in its stories. I am very happy to believe the silliness of the Mirror without even seeing a copy.

  26. Looks like South Yorks Police Commissioner by election going UKIP’s way.

  27. CHOUENLAI

    I can’t help agreeing with your post of 4.35 (albeit from the opposite end of the spectrum!) The UK Labour Party will be in trouble and the Tories thrown a life belt if things go pear-shaped in Scotland – the very thing Labour voters in Scotland least want they could unwittingly help happen!

    I still hope the iron logic of British politics will sink in at GE2015 and the people of Scotland will do the sensible thing but unless Scottish Labour elect a charismatic leader and get their act together pdq they could be doomed!

  28. @Chouenlai
    You could have saved yourself a little bother by looking at Denis MacShane’s WIKI entry, which says he changed his name from Matyjaszek to his mother’s name of MacShane “at the request of his employers” [the BBC].
    “MacShane was born in Glasgow as Denis Matyjaszek, to an Irish mother, Isobel MacShane, and her Polish husband, Jan Matyjaszek” note the a in Mac, though his mother was Irish.
    It’s an interesting biography.

  29. Re the R&S open primary. Could UKIP have orchestrated a vote for the Tory candidate they preferred to fight? I have no knowledge of the two Tory wannabe candidates, other than seeing their mugshots. I thought the loser looked the more electable and I’ve just heard that clip of the winner’s interview, so just wondering…

  30. UKIP membership now 40,094 – no comment :-)

  31. What’s with this Kelly Tolhurst interview? Was it a bit of a car crash?

  32. @CHOUENLAI

    “If a club you belong to, suddenly billed you for £50,000, because you had landed a better job than most other members, that would be what? An accountancy matter.”

    If I was a member of the finance committee and had previously approved the charging formula I’d just feel a bit stupid. And I’d just have to pay up, even if grudgingly.

  33. @TONYCORNWALL

    Faster links to and from London can be a two-edged sword. Before long you find all the best property has been snapped up by Londoners and/or become unaffordable on a local income.

  34. “UKIP membership now 40,094 – no comment ”

    That’ll be the day.

    chow

    “If a club you belong to, suddenly billed you for £50,000, because you had landed a better job than most other members, that would be what? An accountancy matter.”

    What a truly ridiculous analogy.

  35. Never mind. I just noticed Andy JS posted a Youtube link entitled ‘Car Crash Interview On Immigration by Kelly Tolhurst’ so I’m guessing that’s the one people are talking about. I’ll check it out when I have the wifi later.

  36. I’m a couple of pages out of date I accept. Furthermore I accept (and in spite of not being overly keen on either party, actively welcome) that the SNP and UKIP are both likely to take seats from the Westminster parties in 2015 (the SNP probably not south of the border, UKIP probably not north of it).

    But given that precisely 0 of those polled in the Rochester and Strood constituency are going to be voting SNP at the Rochester and Strood by-election, I repeat, only slightly lounder:

    WHAT ON EARTH DOES THE SNP HAVE TO DO WITH NON-PARTISAN DISCUSSION ABOUT POLLING FOR THE ROCHESTER AND STROOD BY-ELECTION???

  37. @AC

    I haven’t picked up the toaster yet, sat in town having a Macchiato instead, and it’s the weekend when things always get a bit random on the board, so you get to hear a bit more about Carfrew’s philosophy on toasters…

    Yes, one of the hard-won lessons of life, is to always be prepared to spend an appropriate amount on a toaster. Another very hard-won lesson is to always read the instructions, because no matter how simple the item, there is often some surreptitiously-placed piece of packaging, spacer, or summat supposedly protective which, if one fails to remove it, will rapidly result in the demise of your new purchase.

    We have had the era of planned obsolescence, and having milked that for all it’s worth, where things lasted for less and less time before needing replacing, now things have progressed a bit, and we are well into the era where obsolescence isn’t enough, and they are going to try and trick you into sabotaging your purchase unwittingly, such that it needs replacing as soon as you have bought it.

    Obviously, the next step is to make it so you have to replace it before you have even bought it. They’ll probably find a way…

  38. @RogerH If I found myself in that position, my wife would confirm my stupidity in no uncertain terms, and expect me to resign from the club, whether or not I paid the £50,000, so that it couldn’t happen again.

  39. “WHAT ON EARTH DOES THE SNP HAVE TO DO WITH NON-PARTISAN DISCUSSION ABOUT POLLING FOR THE ROCHESTER AND STROOD BY-ELECTION???”

    ———-

    It doesn’t have much to do with toasters either, to be fair…

  40. Carfrew

    Doesn’t that depend on whether any of the parties are toast after the by-election? (I’ll get me coat)

  41. @PAUL A
    Thank you for that, I appreciate your agreement.

  42. You need to buy a hand-made British Dualit toaster, not one of those Chinese immigrants. And only £150 or so.

  43. @DAVE
    Yes I checked on Wiki when I was challenged, to late.
    Further, thank you for answering ROGERH. I think telling them to stuff it is a very serious proposal.

  44. @oldnat

    haha, it’s possible some are toast already…

    (It’s what they get for not reading the instructions…)

  45. ROGERH

    “You need to buy a hand-made British Dualit toaster, not one of those Chinese immigrants. And only £150 or so.”

    ——–

    Reminds me of boarding school tho’… and when the housemaster decided we should no longer have butter, but margerine…

  46. I n proctor silex toaster minioven 1975

  47. Sorry about that, pushed too early. :-)

    In 1975 we were given a Proctor Silex toaster mini-oven, we’re still using it, it makes great toast and the kids used to cook stuff in the little oven.

  48. Politico Daily tweet

    “Opinium/Observor poll. Conservative 33 +5 Labour 33 -2 Liberal Democrat 6 -3 UKIP 18 +1 Green 4 SNP 4 Other 2 -1”

  49. chouenlai

    If a club you belong to, suddenly billed you for £50,000, because you had landed a better job than most other members, that would be what? An accountancy matter.

    It’s a one-off payment which is being requested because what EU members contribute has been based in the past on GDP. But different countries have been calculating their GDP in different ways when they should have all being supplying figures using the same basis. So it’s a payment of money that should have been paid over in the first place. Rather as if you had been paying country membership fees for your club while you actually lived within 50 miles, but you didn’t cough up because you claim you thought the limit was 50 kilometres[1].

    The main differences seems to have related to various items in the black and grey economies – drugs and prostitution are the most eye-catching areas. The government seemed pretty chuffed when their inclusion meant that GDP went up with no effort on their part, but are now complaining when the associated bill has arrived.

    Now you may well argue that the calculations being used are unreliable (I suggested as much on here when we discussed the topic before) and you may say that the backdating goes too far (I’ve seen 1993 and 1995 mentioned). But the principle is perfectly sensible and no doubt if the UK was to be the beneficiary from such recalculations, everyone would be patting themselves on the back and demanding the money now.

    [1] You see, I know how to talk to posh people.

  50. @OldNat,

    Wow, have Opinium adopted the Ashcroft polling methods?

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