ComRes have a new poll of Rochester and Strood out tonight that shows UKIP with a solid lead. As far as I can recall it’s the first ComRes by-election poll this Parliament. Like all constituency polls it was done by telephone, and with a healthy sample size by constituency polling standards of 1500.

Topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 21%, LDEM 3%, UKIP 43%, GREEN 3%. The only previous Rochester & Strood poll was by Survation at the start of the month – that showed a nine point lead for UKIP. Obviously one has to be careful about direct comparisons between polls from different pollsters using different methodologies, so it would be wrong to draw too many conclusions about how opinion might have moved between the two polls (differences could be down to methods), but it certainly doesn’t show any obvious sign of the Conservatives eating into UKIP’s early lead.

705 Responses to “ComRes show UKIP 13 points ahead in Rochester”

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    I follow your logic up to a point Roger, but the EU should still take a running jump!

    All very plausible and reasoned Roger. However the public mood in Britain other than with people like yourself, is this.
    We took the pain of coalition austerity, France among others has not.
    If the EU think we are handing over 1.7 billion to give to them, they can think again. Furthermore, this is a big nail in the EU coffin lid when we come to decision time.

  3. Neil A

    I blame the electorate. Some of them seem to imagine they are allowed to think for themselves!

  4. New thread.

  5. Do you have any views/predictions on TURNOUT at the BE in Rochester/S?
    TURNOUT 64.9% in GE2010.

    Ladbrokes, the sole firm in turnout market have priced it up:
    under 50% 4/5
    over 50% 10/11

    I think it will be around 60%.

    COMRES poll; polled 17-21 Oct:
    likely to vote 1-10 (1 certain NOT to vote, 10 certain to vote)

    70% indicated 8, 9 or 10
    13% indicated 3,2, or 1

    37% of DNV at GE2010 indicated 8,9 or 10.

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