This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. The rest of the poll is a bit of a grab bag of other issues. Perceptions of the party leaders and the debates, some questions on UKIP and the Conservatives, rape and the former footballer Ched Evans, and assisted dying.

Cameron has the highest ratings of the party leaders on trust – or at least, the least untrustworthy. 32% trust him to tell the truth, 62% do not. The comparable figures for the other leaders are 25% for Ed Miliband, 22% trust Nigel Farage, 18% trust Nick Clegg.

88% and 87% think David Cameron and Ed Miliband should be included in the leader debates (presumably those opposed are those who don’t support the idea of debates at all, or whose support is wholly conditional on whether or not one of the other candidates are included), 79% think Nick Clegg should be included and 67% think Nigel Farage should be included. After that support drops away quickly, 51% think that the Green party leader Natalie Bennett should be included, only 25% think George Galloway should.

There is still very little support for a UKIP-Conservative pact. Nationwide only 14% of people would support one, Conservative party voters would oppose a pact by 50% to 30%, UKIP voters would oppose one by 56% to 26%). Local Conservative/UKIP pacts aren’t really any more popular, only 16% think the Conservative party should allow their candidates or members to agree local pacts with UKIP, Conservative voters would be opposed to it by 54% to 30%. In the event that the Conservatives lose Rochester 57% of people think that Cameron should remain leader and the overwhelming majority of Tory voters (92%) would back him – only 3% of Tory voters would want him to go. For the public at least, it doesn’t seem to be a resigning matter.

66% of people think that all instances of rape should continue to be treated as the same offence – that “rape is rape”. 25% think the law should have different categories of rape, depending on factors such as whether violence was involved. There is a significant gender difference, though perhaps not as large as one might have guessed – 31% of men think that there should be different categories of rape in law, 20% of women. There is widespread support for anonymity for both victims of rape and people accused of rape. 84% think it is right that people who are the victims of rape should have their identities protected, 77% think that people accused of rape should have their identities protected unless they are found guilty. 37% of people think that Ched Evans should be allowed to return to professional football, 45% think he should not. There is a sharper gender difference here – by 45% to 39% men think that he should be allowed to play, by 51% to 30% women think that he should not.

There is still very strong support for legalising assisted suicide for the terminally ill (72% support, 12% opposed), and more support (48%) than opposition (30%) for assisted suicide for those with painful, incurable but not terminal illnesses. Asked about whether people should be prosecuted for assisting a suicide, 14% think the current law should be enforced unless it is changed, 71% think the authorities should turn a blind eye.


669 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday TImes – CON 32, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 16, GRN 5%”

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  1. ED

    Northern Ireland (I didn’t know that they “recently experienced perhaps the most severe property market crash in the developed world”) are looking at creating the necessary pre-conditions for introducing Land Value Tax to prevent such occurrences in future.

    http://www.nicva.org/sites/default/files/d7content/attachments-resources/a_land_value_tax_for_northern_ireland.pdf

    LVT is one of my favourite Green policies.

  2. Jim Jam

    “Left leaning scots who favour independence have a decision to make in Lab/SNP contests.”

    Ah, so you don’t understand Scottish politics then! :-)

  3. CIDERMAN – I still think Osbourne will go for a big giveaway at the budget despite dire public finances. He’s realised that the markets will still allow UK to borrow very cheaply in short to medium term given mass money printing (QE) and banks thus being flush with cash and buying up gilts as terrible returns elsewhere. Even Spain, Italy, Portugal etc can borrow cheaply now.

    Austerity is pretty much dead for the entire gov budget – entire spending up over 5% on last year. Only select areas have been hit hard.

  4. CHOUENLAI

    The big Island ? What is that…?
    Great Britain plus associated islands subject to direct rule from Cardiff, Edinburgh and/or Westminster.

    And by the way the UK is a nation.
    Only in the sense of being a member state of the UN and some other international organisations, which is why I regard that as being an understandable confusion. More accurate terms would be “Kingdom” or “state”, particularly as many UN members are [con]federations.

    But the “big 2” do not stand in the province consisting of 6 Irish counties which is currently undeniably part of the UK, so I fail to see in what respect it is legitimate to call them “national” parties, even if you do consider the UK to be a nation.

    Arguably, their use of “Scottish” and “Welsh” as prefixes in relevant nations as “trading names” registered with the EC suggests that those parties themselves understand the “home” nations of the UK when it suits them.

    You’re in synch with the BBC, though, as on their Election 2010 and Election 2014 pages, they erroneously aggregate the votes cast for the E&W Green Party and the Scottish Green Party as “Green” under a party header. Perhaps they just assumed the Greens behave in the same way that Con, Lab & LD do and couldn’t be bothered to check the party registrations on the EC site.

    And please feel free to call me BZ.

  5. @Statgeek

    “That’s a two-party point of view,”

    No, just a logical one. And why the SNP got 19.9% in the 2010 UK election but 31% in the 2011 Scottish one.

  6. I see the Telegraph are reporting on the Lib/Dem bounce.

    “Liberal Democrats fall behind Greens into fifth place in new general election poll”
    ………
    “The Liberal Democrats will be beaten by the Green Party and finish fifth in next year’s general election, according to a new poll revealing the party’s shrinking appeal to the public.
    Just seven per cent of the electorate plan to back Nick Clegg’s party next year, according to a Lord Ashcroft survey published yesterday – one point behind the Greens on 8 per cent”

  7. R&D

    That only holds if you believe that the only way No could have possibly won was for Labour to campaign with the Tories and demonise and alienate Yes supporters.

    @Jim Jam

    The advantage the SNP has is the short time to the GE, too short for people to forget about the Referendum.

    The ‘ Vote SNP get the Tories’ has a number of defences from ‘we voted Labour in 2010 and got the Tories’ to ‘Labour preferred a Tory government to independence’.

    But more importantly there are very few seats where an increased SNP vote would produce a Conservative win – Edinburgh North is the only realistic one. I am discounting Jim Murphy’s Eastwood or Darling in Edinburgh as that requires an unrealistic swing,

    Nearly all the Scottish seats are two way marginals so voting SNP will not let the Tories in.

    Labour will keep the Lab/Con seats.
    SNP will keep the SNP/Con seats
    Cons will pick up a couple of LD seats
    SNP will pick up most of the other LibDem seats

    The doubt is how many Lab/SNP marginals will the SNP win.

    The only seat that is more than a two way marginal is Danny Alexander’s seat is a four way marginal which pre-referedum polling showed SNP winning.

  8. I don’t think marginal is the correct term but the seats have two parties in contention with the other parties hoping to keep their deposit – most Scottish seats are like that – do where in the country as a whole we have 4 parties in most seats it is between two.

  9. BRAMLEY

    “Kellner expects Reckless to hold Rochester & Strood therefore giving Ukip their 2nd MP”
    _____

    Well that’s pretty reckless of him.

    I just wonder if he does win then Cameron’s position might begin to wobble a little.

  10. @Couper

    I think Argyll is potentially a three way marginal (Tories think they have a chance when Tory VIs are at the higher end).
    It is hard to tell how much LD MPs are going to benefit from incumbency.

  11. “The advantage the SNP has is the short time to the GE, too short for people to forget about the Referendum.”

    Why would the referendum decide someone’s vote in the General Election? It’s no better than trying to extrapolate from a by-election result.

  12. ” ‘Labour preferred a Tory government to independence’

    Couper, almost all of your comments are based on anger with Labour and lack any logic.

    For example, what does the above mean in reality?

    If Labour were AGAINST an independent Scotland for reasons of principles are we supposed to sit back and admire them if they abandon those principles, especially when based on an absolutely false premise?

    After all, Scotland continuing with the Union does nothing remotely like guarantee a Tory govt as you know perfectly well. [We have the Lib Dens for that and actually haven’t had a “real” Tory UK government elected for well over twenty years.]

    As for how nasty “Labour” was to those who were Labour AND independence supporters I have no idea what you mean but I am sure a lot of individuals were rude about a lot of others, aiming both ways.

    What did the official Labour campaign say that was so terrifyingly awful?

  13. What about Labour’s chances in Rochester and Strood?

    There is an article up on labour list urging some sort of campaign, but there appears to be a lack of funding, they are asking for donations for leaflets. Is Labour broke?

    The FT has an article up with some interesting analysis from Rob Ford who seems to disagree that UKIP have it in the bag

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7829640a-5929-11e4-9546-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Go4Pf2YS

    “High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email fts[email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7829640a-5929-11e4-9546-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3Go6Ic0kS

    To win, Mr Reckless is believed to need more than three in five Conservative voters who backed him last time to switch. It is, says Mr Ford, a difficult task. Mr Reckless admits he would be lucky to get to close to half.

    But the former MP says he does not need all the Tories to back him, and insists he is picking up votes from Labour supporters who want to give the prime minister a bloody nose. ”

    Well, if half the Tory vote goes to UKIP, and half to the Tories, doesn’t that mean that Labour then stand a good chance of winning – in 2010 it was 49% Tory and 29% Labour. With the supposed improvement in Labour fortunes since 2010, Labour should be out in force trying to cause their own upset. If nothing else it will get some of their policies into the headlines, Rochester is all the news media will be focusing on for the next few weeks – some visits from Miliband where he announces some policies and puts up a fight may allow him to redeem himself after the Scotland fiasco.

  14. The GE in Scotland is either going to be the status quo where hardly a seat changes from 2010 or the complete inhalation of the Lib/Dems and Labour getting a bloody nose in around a dozen urban seats.

    EM is deeply unpopular in Scotland along with DC so who do they choose? The guy with the crooked nose or the guy with the big nose?

  15. @Couper2802

    Unfortunately referendum campaigns are like that. People get very heated on both sides. Labour no more demonised Yes supporters than the SNP (in particular) demonised No supporters. Of course how you perceive demonisation depends on what side of the fence you were on.

    The inevitable corrollary to Yes coming a strong second was that its supporters would look for a way to continue the campaign. It seems that most have adapted their cause to DevoMax. Most have also (unsurprisingly coalesced around the SNP and the Scottish Greens – the main Yes parties). This means in the short term Labour have a problem.

    Of course Labour having a problem would not have been inevitable (or even probable) if No had won by 20-30%. But that didn’t happen.

  16. @RogerH

    Simple, my friend:

    you’re not going to vote for someone who spent a lot of time and energy telling you that you were acting irresponsibly by thinking that Scotland is as capable of self government as Denmark, Sweden, Norway, et al., and told you that in concert with the very party you had been told was your common enemy. Labour can’t have it both ways…..

  17. What about Labour’s chances in Rochester and Strood?

    There is an article up on labour list urging some sort of campaign, but there appears to be a lack of funding, they are asking for donations for leaflets. Is Labour broke?

    The FT has an article up with some interesting analysis from Rob Ford who seems to disagree that UKIP have it in the bag

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7829640a-5929-11e4-9546-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3Go6Ic0kS

    It says that Reckless needs 3/5 of the Tory vote from 2010 to win, and he thinks he can only get half, but can make up the balance with Labour supporters wanting to give the Tories a bloody nose.

    Well, if half the Tory vote goes to UKIP, and half to the Tories, doesn’t that mean that Labour then stand a good chance of winning – in 2010 it was 49% Tory and 29% Labour. With the supposed improvement in Labour fortunes since 2010, Labour should be out in force trying to cause their own upset.

    If nothing else it will get some of their policies into the headlines, Rochester is all the news media will be focusing on for the next few weeks – some visits from Miliband where he announces some policies and puts up a fight may allow him to redeem himself after the Scotland fiasco.

  18. Thanks Couper – I think thatt is what I was saying only you gave better more accurate detail.
    You say the doubt is how many SNP/Lab marginals will the SNP win and I agree hence why left leaning voters in such seats have a decision to make.

    Appreciate your respectful post btw and that you paused to reflect what I was getting at.

  19. Let me think.

    Austerity has stopped over the past two years.

    The economy has started growing over the past two years.

    Conclusion: Osborne was right in 2010 and Balls was wrong.

    Welcome to Looking Glass Land.

  20. COLIN
    ALLAN

    “I think he really believes that EU reform is necessary & that UK can get changes .
    So a referendum on membership as it currently is is asking for an OUT response.
    The timing has never been better for a UK PM to ask EU whether it really believes that it’s current thinking is the road to economic success for its citizens”
    ______

    I think most people agree EU reform is needed but I doubt it will stop the sceptics in his party from launching some sort of mutiny before the GE if more blues jump ship and turn purple.

    Even though the UK is in a stronger economic position than the EU I still can’t see Brussels kowtowing too much to Cameron’s demands on EU reform.

    Best option for Cameron is to say he will hold a in out EU ref if he wins the next GE and if he wins then he can take that mandate to Brussels and stuff it in their faces and demand real reform.

    I think it’s better to go in with a bargaining chip rather than making one up in 2017 if he doesn’t get what he wants.

  21. @AC, Camerons position.
    It’s too late to change leader now, even if UKIP begin & keep polling ~20 until the election. Afterwards, if he wins, he stays…they ain’t gonna sack the PM. IMO.

    @Richard, Lab in Rochester

    If I had to guess, they’re discreetly campaigning as little as they can without the media making a big thing of it, wanting their supporters to go ukip.

  22. @John B:

    ” Labour can’t have it both ways…”

    Why not? Two issues, two different reasons for voting. Most voters won’t conflate the two any more than they would an EU election and a UK election. (Not that Labour ever said Scotland was incapable of self government, anyway; just that we were all ‘better together’.)

  23. @Roger

    What logic? The last General Election? Labour in power, and Gordon v Cam, with the SNP as minority in Scotland, and the Lib Dems at their most popular, and UKIP far less of a threat?

    Not a thing is the same, and I doubt 2015 will be anything like 2010.

  24. Labour were in a difficult position.

    Their supporters outside Scotland backed the Union and so the only honourable position to take was to back it. No other party had the strength in Scotland to oppose the SNP, and so it fell to Labour to lead the pro-Union campaign.

    It is not reasonable for anyone to expect the party to put a section of its Scottish support ahead of the wishes of its support outside Scotland.

    I understand that Yes voters are disappointed. But, if they want the backing of major parties whose voter base lies largely outside Scotland – and they do – they need to win over voters outside Scotland so those parties can honourably support them.

    Let’s just say the nationalists have some work to do in that respect.

  25. @Richard

    The only two parties that can win R&S are the Tories and Ukip. Everyone there knows this and everyone else will be juiced like an orange (pips notwithstanding).

  26. @Richard

    “It says that Reckless needs 3/5 of the Tory vote from 2010 to win, and he thinks he can only get half, but can make up the balance with Labour supporters wanting to give the Tories a bloody nose.”

    UKIP will get almost all of their supporters out to vote. Reckless just needs more Tories to stay at home – which they will.

  27. Good Evening All.

    ALLAN CHRISTIE:
    The fall in the LD VI is very surprising.

    I wonder whether the falling Budget Deficit figures due to rising tax receipts on the back of rising income levels in the economy will have a positive impact on the GE result.

  28. WOOD
    @AC, Camerons position.

    “It’s too late to change leader now, even if UKIP begin & keep polling ~20 until the election. Afterwards, if he wins, he stays…they ain’t gonna sack the PM. IMO”
    ________

    I’m just saying his position might begin to wobble but yes I suspect they will hang onto him until the election.

  29. @STATGEEK

    “What logic?”

    The logic that you’re electing a MP for Westminster, not Edinburgh. Most voters will know they’re electing a UK government, not a Scottish one, and won’t be trying to re-run a failed referendum campaign.

  30. @ Couper 2802

    Regarding Labour’s mission re Equality:
    Labour’s record for women is second to none. No other Party has done anything like as much as Labour has done to promote gender equality.

  31. CHRISLANE1945
    Good Evening All.

    ALLAN CHRISTIE:
    “The fall in the LD VI is very surprising.
    I wonder whether the falling Budget Deficit figures due to rising tax receipts on the back of rising income levels in the economy will have a positive impact on the GE result”
    _______

    “The fall in the LD VI is very surprising”…… It’s unabated!

    Unfortunately for the Tories I’m not sure all of the above you have mentioned will filter through to a lot of voters who are still feeling the pinch. (See Alec’s doom & gloom posts)

    It can’t do them any harm but will it be enough? Hmmm!

  32. Re – responses to Labour in Rochester

    Ok all, well I think Labour are being a little short sighted. One of the Tories candidates sounds UKIP light – so it if is a battle between UKIP and her, that opens the door for an anti UKIP opposition.

    If nothing else it teaches your activists what to do to counter UKIP on the doorstep and test different approaches. Labour leadership seems awfully short sighted on this to me, but then I suppose that is what we are coming to expect from then.

  33. ALLAN CHRISTIE.
    I apologise for flippant irony; the exact opposite is happening, but I do not know the impact either, since Labour do not seem to be on the economic pitch at all.

  34. @AC
    “Begin”?
    Reckon he came pre-wobbled, only stable ‘cos of spin, and judging by latest direction, a rattleback.

    @Amber, gender equality champions
    The Greens?

  35. @Chris Lane 1945

    Rising income levels? Not for most people. At present average earnings are increasing by 0.6% and average prices (CPI) by 1.2%. Most regard that as a fall in average income.

  36. @ Couper 2802

    Labour in Edinburgh certainly didn’t demonise any Labour supporters who were Yes. e.g. My CLP has a Yes voter who is a CLP officer. He has never been made to feel unwelcome; he attended all the CLP meetings before, during & after the referendum.

  37. CHRISLANE1945
    ALLAN CHRISTIE.

    “I apologise for flippant irony; the exact opposite is happening, but I do not know the impact either, since Labour do not seem to be on the economic pitch at all”
    _______

    That’s why I said see Alec’s doom & gloom posts. Some parts of the economy are showing positive tangible results but for ordinary Ford Mondeo man it’s still a hard slug.

    Labour don’t seem to have a credible plan for the economy but their best bet is to focus on government spending on the increase again.

    Mind you, it’s not long until the GE so Labour will have to start announcing some credible policies.

  38. Couper & Amber……….The Sturgeon and Lamont of UKPR ;-)

  39. @RogerH and JimJam

    I think it was last week when I opined that many people throughout GB are saying that the two big parties are failing to represent them, or words to that effect.

    The rise of the Greens on the one hand (on the whole damaging to Labour and the LDs), and of UKIP on the other (on the whole damaging to the Tories) and their consistent (even growing) presence in the polling figures would suggest that many who support ‘niche’ parties are fed up with being taken for granted when it comes to general elections.

    As a threat, “Vote UKIP, get Labour” isn’t working. Neither is “Vote Green, get Tory”. The two big GB parties have lost touch with those it relied on to supplement its core vote and win elections.

  40. ROGERH
    The logic that you’re electing a MP for Westminster, not Edinburgh. Most voters will know they’re electing a UK government, not a Scottish one

    Correct, but they will also have opinions on which candidate/party is most likely to work for the best possible deal for Scotland. With successive SSAs showing support for FFA/Devo Max [the probable reason why Westminster insisted on a 1-question referendum], the Labour party are unlikely to fit that bill if they stick to their “Devo Nano” ideas, as put forward to Lord Smith.

  41. @RogerH

    I don’t think you understand what it means to be part of the ’45’. Even before the vote, many people were saying that they would never vote Labour again. That sort of statement was not made lightly.

    With Nicola as party leader, the SNP may be able to talk to folk in Glasgow and the West in a way AS could never do. Nor is it likely that more conservative types in the north-east are going to walk away, even if the SNP moves further leftwards. After all, the question those people are asking is ‘Who will speak for us?’ Labour and the Tories don’t even know such places exist. And the LDs will take a generation to recover.

    The SNP may gain only half a dozen seats at the next GE, but Labour’s hegemony in Scotland is well and truly over despite Gordon Brown’s valiant efforts to the contrary.

  42. @ Wood

    @Amber, gender equality champions
    The Greens?
    ————
    I tried to post a response but it’s stuck in moderation.
    Anyways, the Greens have no stated policy on gender equality, don’t support initiatives to end violence against women (which particularly annoys me) & don’t have any proposals which would contribute to closing the gender gap.

  43. ALLAN

    Who can tell what Con backbenchers will do-they are specialists in Foot Shooting.

    I don’t think it is “Brussels” which will count. It is Merkel-and right now the plinth she has been so used to standing on is crumblimg under her feet.

    I disagree with “Best option for Cameron is to say he will hold a in out EU ref if he wins the next GE and if he wins then he can take that mandate to Brussels and stuff it in their faces and demand real reform.”, because as I have said already, the danger of losing with the status quo terms of membership is too great. And I don’t think he wants to lose.

    I agree about bargaining chips-but he has one-the last UK European Parliament Election result, and what I assume will be a strong showing from UKIP next May…………

    …………..mind you if its too strong Cameron won’t be going anywhere with bargaining chips.

    Its all very complicated , don’t you think?

  44. @John B

    Most people don’t like the thought of a ‘wasted vote’, though, so when voters are faced with a FPTP ballot paper the smaller parties tend to lose all but the most devoted supporters. Often people will prefer not to vote at all.

  45. @Amber

    Good to hear that Labour is managing to keep its family atmosphere internally. It would be interesting to know if any of the new SNP members were previously members of the Labour party – I doubt if many would have made that switch.

    My point regarding those who say they will ‘never vote Labour again’ is more about ‘Joe public’, who is not party to the inner workings of the political system.

    @BBZZ

    Exactly!

  46. John B

    London based journos are beginning to understand both the Scottish constitutional question, and the problems that it forces UK politicians to address.

    This is quite perceptive.

    https://archive.today/QLQwB

  47. @John B

    “I don’t think you understand what it means to be part of the ’45’.”

    I’ll have you know that one of my ancestors was at Culloden.

  48. RICHARD

    I’m not sure what you mean when you say that Labour leadership seems short sighted when it comes to countering UKIP on the doorstep.

    In Clacton the leadership and the rank and file canvassers did little else! We also had special anti-UKIP leaflets printed and delivered.

    What did you mean precusely?

  49. @RogerH

    But voting SNP is not a ‘wasted vote’ when in many parts of Scotland the SNP is either the incumbent or the main challenger.

    And having a large group of SNP MPs when the two large parties are desperate for power will be much more to Scotland’s advantage than to have 40 Labour MPs who are whipped into submission and are afraid to vote for things which would benefit Scotland because it would lead to a reduction in their voting powers at Westminster.

  50. @Colin

    The problem with DC at the moment is he is making promises to the right that he can’t keep. For example this whole thing about clamping down on EU migration when he means benefits for out of work EU migrants. As the PR man he was, he must understand that over-promising and under-delivering in such a sensitive policy area will leave him in a worse position than if he had simply laid his cards on the table.

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