This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. The rest of the poll is a bit of a grab bag of other issues. Perceptions of the party leaders and the debates, some questions on UKIP and the Conservatives, rape and the former footballer Ched Evans, and assisted dying.

Cameron has the highest ratings of the party leaders on trust – or at least, the least untrustworthy. 32% trust him to tell the truth, 62% do not. The comparable figures for the other leaders are 25% for Ed Miliband, 22% trust Nigel Farage, 18% trust Nick Clegg.

88% and 87% think David Cameron and Ed Miliband should be included in the leader debates (presumably those opposed are those who don’t support the idea of debates at all, or whose support is wholly conditional on whether or not one of the other candidates are included), 79% think Nick Clegg should be included and 67% think Nigel Farage should be included. After that support drops away quickly, 51% think that the Green party leader Natalie Bennett should be included, only 25% think George Galloway should.

There is still very little support for a UKIP-Conservative pact. Nationwide only 14% of people would support one, Conservative party voters would oppose a pact by 50% to 30%, UKIP voters would oppose one by 56% to 26%). Local Conservative/UKIP pacts aren’t really any more popular, only 16% think the Conservative party should allow their candidates or members to agree local pacts with UKIP, Conservative voters would be opposed to it by 54% to 30%. In the event that the Conservatives lose Rochester 57% of people think that Cameron should remain leader and the overwhelming majority of Tory voters (92%) would back him – only 3% of Tory voters would want him to go. For the public at least, it doesn’t seem to be a resigning matter.

66% of people think that all instances of rape should continue to be treated as the same offence – that “rape is rape”. 25% think the law should have different categories of rape, depending on factors such as whether violence was involved. There is a significant gender difference, though perhaps not as large as one might have guessed – 31% of men think that there should be different categories of rape in law, 20% of women. There is widespread support for anonymity for both victims of rape and people accused of rape. 84% think it is right that people who are the victims of rape should have their identities protected, 77% think that people accused of rape should have their identities protected unless they are found guilty. 37% of people think that Ched Evans should be allowed to return to professional football, 45% think he should not. There is a sharper gender difference here – by 45% to 39% men think that he should be allowed to play, by 51% to 30% women think that he should not.

There is still very strong support for legalising assisted suicide for the terminally ill (72% support, 12% opposed), and more support (48%) than opposition (30%) for assisted suicide for those with painful, incurable but not terminal illnesses. Asked about whether people should be prosecuted for assisting a suicide, 14% think the current law should be enforced unless it is changed, 71% think the authorities should turn a blind eye.


669 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday TImes – CON 32, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 16, GRN 5%”

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  1. @Bramley

    I’d assume that’s the upper limit of expected losses, in which case it’s actually less serious than I feared.

    It’s still alarming though. It’s fair to say house price falls of even a fraction of that magnitude will probably affect VI.

  2. @Bramley

    ….of course, if banks fail the stress tests…..

    I wouldn’t want to be a political party vulnerable to accusations that they ramped up house prices for political advantage in the next few years – and that’s putting that mildly.

  3. “a 35% fall in house prices,”

    Heavens! It must have been a Yes vote after all. Just 5 weeks ago we were being bombarded with “UK house prices will fall if Scotland votes for independence -A Yes vote in this week’s Scottish referendum would jeopardise the UK’s housing market recovery, according to Rightmove”

  4. The usual culprits from the left are up page having a whale of a time.
    “Cameron looks like Jim Callaghan at the end of his career”, “Cameron looks like John Major ditto”, immigration is a Tory problem and they have caused the whole thing to blow up in their face, ect,ect.

    Where this rubbish comes from I do not know. But this I do know, the Conservative party is 3 points behind Labour with 7 months, an Autumn Statement and a budget to go. The economy is buoyant and their leader, whilst not universally loved is far,far, in front of his rival.
    Where does this “its in the bag” mentality come from ? The same people made the same comments in 2010, with even less reason.
    Wanting it does not make it happen.

  5. Roland – you are absolutely right, complacency can be costly and misplaced.
    The high degree of churn and support for parties other than the big 2 national ones shows there are plenty of voters up for grabs; including some who say they are certain to vote in a particular way as well.

    All the play for.

  6. @Chris Riley
    Why would the banks in their current condition fail the stress test?
    Some people learned a real lesson from 2008, some as we know did not. However the ones who matter will not fall into that trap again.

  7. JIM JAM

    :-)

  8. Chou

    Are you saying it’s too soon to tell?

  9. @LEFTYLAMPTON
    I am certainly not saying that Labour are going to stroll to victory.

  10. House prices are high because of the laws of supply and demand being stymied by our planning laws. Every attempt by government to solve this problem is blocked by good old self interest on the part of the electorate. This ensures that price falls are always temporary and can be safely ridden out by most people. The same does not apply to commercial property because the self interest brake is not there – business wants property to be cheaper, not dearer. The stress tests are thus looking at different scenarios, both likely and unlikely, to gauge the robustness of the banks in all foreseeable circumstances and trying to avoid the problem of the Spanish banks which are still sitting with huge property portfolios which are vastly overvalued and cannot be sold in the foreseeable future or the banks would be bust.

  11. The real question is-will the Banking Stress tests actually mean anything this time around ?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/20/us-ecb-banks-tests-idUSKCN0I90BD20141020

  12. @Bramley

    Exactly Labour were ‘in league with the Tories’ so not only did they push Yes voters to SNP they were in league with the enemy of ‘Scotland’ so described by Labour since 1979

    The SNP saying “Labour = Tories” is good politics. Labour saying “If you vote Yes your SNP” is bad politics.

  13. Mike N
    The latter, it seems; it was meant of course to be a humorous play of words on an old saying but which is actually a serious personal policy, which I guessed correctly TOH and I share.

  14. @Bramley et al

    Sorry about your/you’re mistake

  15. Howard
    Thanks, so is the reference to ‘pounds’ about money or weight?

  16. Nice twist on my post Couper 10/10.

    The SNP were as guilty of spinning yarns as every other party so please don’t think you can make out they are as pure as driven snow !

    Time to get over it – the referendum was lost & the Union preserved for the foreseeable future.

  17. Kellner expects Reckless to hold Rochester & Strood therefore giving Ukip their 2nd MP.

    Hearteningly for UKIP, Kellner is predicting a UKIP win, albeit a closer one, “As for Rochester, I would expect Reckless to hold it, but it is quite interesting that the Tories seem to have their gander up on Rochester and are going to make more of a fist of it.”

    http://www.cherwell.org/comment/opinion/2014/10/18/interview-peter-kellner

  18. COLIN
    I read the Reuters link. My reply to Chris Riley up page was specifically regarding British banks. However, whilst he was also thinking of British banks, your recommended article gets one thinking about certain European institutions.

  19. Miserable Old Git (1532)
    I guessed as much. Discussing one’s own personal vote choice as an illustrative topic on here, really only has relevance in a marginal and especially when nose-holding is at stake. When you supported Labour, in those safe London Labour constituencies*, had you been disgusted, say, with some aspect of Labour policy, you might have voted for a minor party that did support your view, just as a personal satisfaction action, but unless there were strong indications that the second candidate had a chance, you might as well have ‘sold in May and gone away’.
    *If they were safe in the 1980s, as you describe, they must have been dead safe!

    It would be interesting to me to hear from someone who lives in a real marginal, who is wrestling over these matters. For example, a Con voter who wants what UKIP wants, or a Lab voter who is Old Labour.

  20. Mike N
    You weigh yourself in pennies? What, piled up?

  21. “…Tories seem to have their gander up on Rochester… ”

    Strange expression.

    A UKIP win will throw the Tories into chaos and panic.

    Exciting times ahead.

  22. Howard
    You and I may be old enough to remember the days when a penny machine would print yr weight on a ticket?

  23. Mike N
    Gander or dander I wonder?

    I remember an anecdote about Clacton (via CB11 was it?) about a couple of Tory ladies with their dander well and truly up. What do anecdotes count for?

  24. Mike N
    :-)

    Yes, I have read that ‘speak your weight’ is what some ministers are only capable of expressing when giving Answers. In other words, they just read out what the civil servant told them to say and then have to come back later and correct it, several times in a row, I read about one of them.

  25. @Bramley

    I think you are being unfair here I am not talking about the morality just the fact that Labour equating Yes with SNP was bad politics. Labour running a campaign with the Tories was bad politics and Labour are reaping the whirlwind.

    To such an extent that at the GE the loss of Scottish seats could deprive Labour of a majority or of being largest party.

    Note the Tories have not been damaged with only one Scottish seat to lose. And the collapse of the LD vote means they might pick up two or three seats so they are fine.

    The winners from the campaign are the Tories, got the No result and assisted Labour in Labour’s Scottish political suicide.

    Now Labour might recover but the fact their devolution proposal is the weakest presented to the Smith Commission – the signs are not good.

  26. JIM JAM
    gThe high degree of churn and support for parties other than the big 2 national ones

    PC & SNP?

    Or did you mean to say “the big 2 GB-wide ones?

    I can understand confusing the UK with a nation, but hardly the big island.

  27. @Roger Mexico

    There is no such thing as a Scottish Tory revival.

    Completely true!

    Top two charts added to the page here:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2014/09/here/

    The first is 2011 to present 10-poll averages. YOu can see the referendum week as the point where the SNP and Labour were level pegging.

    As you say, since then, Con VI has been dropping. The past few polls have been slightly higher (last 5 polls give an average of 18.8%), but that was over the previous five polls, with an average of 16%.

    The five poll trend since July shows a similar theme of a slow drop. In the last 30 polls, the Conservatives have hit 20 or more 12 times, but have hit 19 or less 18 times. Most recent 15 polls show average of 18.0%, while the previous 15 polls had an average of 18.3%.

    Also under the two images I mentioned, is a selection of measurements of the Conservatives in Scotland. As you can see, the most recent poll is 14%, and the 5-poll measure is higher than the 10-poll measure. As you say, the comparing of cross-breaks from one period to another has to be within the correct context.

    The old (30 poll unweighted) MAD is too kind to the Conservatives, while the new (25 poll weighted) MAD is closer to the truth. The ‘monthly’ measure, is just the average of the October polls so far.

  28. CHOU

    Thanks.

    The analysis & reports I have read imply that British Banks should get the all clear, but that there are still horror stories in the rest of Europe.

    Barclays raised new capital last year via a Rights Issue

    EZ Banks raised €45bn of new capital between July of last year and May 2014, Banks in Germany , Portugal & Italy are currently raising new capital.

    Regulators are certainly turning the screw.

  29. couper

    Maybe Labour did it the other way around: i.e. equated SNP with a desire for independence.

    That might have been because of what S N and P stand for.

  30. COLIN
    My take on it also.

  31. @R & D

    That is exacly what happened. Anyone that said they were Yes was immediately classed as a Nat and demonised. That is why Labour have lost so much support.

    So if you vote Yes you’re a Nat that is why SNP are at 45% in the crossbreaks, fine in a Yes\No referendum but fatal to Labour in a FPTP system where 45% will get you nearly all the seats.

    Big mistake.

  32. bite tongue time.

  33. BARBARwhatever.

    The big Island ? What is that, Australia or Greenland? And by the way the UK is a nation. It has 3 tribes which are indigenous. However, the amount of sexual intercourse that has gone on over a couple of thousand years, means only the accents signify any difference.

  34. Couper2802

    Or to put it another way – currently the SNP are very good at politics. Labour in Scotland are really bad at it.

    I have a lot of respect for those like Amber who were prepared to put what they see as best for their country (the UK) before the interests of their party, but I doubt that many would have expected the tactics adopted to have had such a counter-productive effect on post-referendum politics.

    The extent to which “every … political pundit, commentator and writer in Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom” got it wrong is well summed up by Robbie Dinwoodie in Saturday’s Herald –

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/post-poll-script-has-been-torn-to-shreds.25600923

  35. @Couper2802
    You would not mislead a poor old English pensioner would you?
    Are Labour, in your view, really going to get hurt in Scotland next May

  36. OLD NAT
    I read your Herald piece. It pretty much covers a small comment I made a few days ago about party membership in Scotland. This was based on something in Conservative Home. I think it also answers my question to Couper.

  37. Couper2802 – “To such an extent that at the GE the loss of Scottish seats could deprive Labour of a majority or of being largest party.”

    You don’t think that would have happened anyway?

    There are very few places that permanently vote just one way – perhaps the Shetlands and the Isle of Wight. Everywhere else, the pendulum always swings. Familiarity breeds contempt, and people accustomed to being elected get lazy, sowing the seeds of their own defenestration.

    We’re at an inflexion point right now, throughout the UK.

    It might actually be good for the Labour party to lose some of it’s Scottish seats. As the Scottish voices weaken in the Labour party, the English and Welsh voices will strength, and they’ll evolve, perhaps to being a party able to win in southern England. Meanwhile, the Scots will rediscover their inner conservatism.

    So all this upheaval in Scotland and in Eastern England might be a good thing if the mainstream parties are able to respond and evolve imaginatively to the change.

    Change is good, change drives progress. It’s impossible for everything to stay the same anyway – it’s like trying to hold back the tide with your hands. I’m amazed people even think it’s possible to stop the clock.

  38. Chouenlai

    The question is not whether Labour are going to get hurt in Scotland, but the extent of the damage.

    If Scots voters return, in May, to looking at politics through a UK prism, then the seat loss might be only a few and they could even pick up one or two in the Highlands from the LDs.

    On the other hand, if anything like the levels of SNP support showing in almost all of every pollsters’ Scottish crossbreaks turns out to be right, then the SNP will have crossed the tipping point under FPTP that can produce an avalanche of losses.

    The future may be very exciting – or very boring. :-)

  39. Does anyone know who runs the “May2015” polling/politics site?

    http://may2015.com/

    I hadn’t come across it before.

  40. @ OLD NAT
    I would guess the logical thought process would be, “committing to SNP does not mean an independent Scotland anymore, but good government within the UK”. Or if independence floats your boat, who else would you vote for. Either way it looks like First Minister Sturgeon.

  41. @Old Nat

    According to it’s ‘About’ page, it’s the “New Statesman’s new, unaligned election site.”

  42. Bramley

    Thanks. I obviously didn’t explore the site enough.

  43. couper

    Your logic seems to be that Labour should have been more flexible, encouraged the break-up of the UK and the loss of all Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster in order that they would not suffer the loss of a few of them next May.

    Not sure that I agree with you about that being “good politics” and, in any case, if you are suggesting separating morals from politics then what is the point?

  44. The predicted success of the SNP in the General Election will, I suspect, turn out to have been much exaggerated. There really isn’t that much reason for sending a SNP MP to Westminster.

  45. @chouenlai

    If the economy is bouyant and the Tory leader is “far, far” prefered to the opposition leader, why are they 3 points behind?
    If you really believe that the autumn statement and budget can swing it, then I assume you think that it’s the old ‘giveaway’ and the stupid gullable electorate that will ride to their rescue.

    Given the force feeding of 4 years of austerity and 90% of the population being worse off and today’s news of deteriorating PSBR, I don’t whether to laugh or cry

  46. Stress tests.

    On ‘phone to HMRC Helpline.

    Just failed the stress test.

  47. @RogerH

    “There really isn’t that much reason for sending a SNP MP to Westminster.”

    That’s a two-party point of view, and imho is fast becoming an outdated concept. 2010 was a hung parliament. We’re probably going to get another in 2015.

    The SNP will continue to vote in Westminster according to what they think is best for Scotland (or best for stirring the pot to get Scotland closer to independence). If there people keep voting for them, they’ll keep stirring.

  48. RMJ1 – Housing prices are also high due to landbanking developers. Planning is an issue, and much green belt could become housing, but there’s masses of land approved for housing and developers do not build. Look at Ebbsfleet. Land Securities owned since 2001 and havn’t built. Land in wider area for 100k homes. LS now want more gov cash to make ‘viable’. It is directly next to 2 railway lines – 20 mins to Kings Cross & 45 mins to London Bridge & City of London.

    Also one shouldn’t overlook politicians vested interests. Over 1/3 are landlords and more than that own more than one home.

  49. Left leaning scots who favour independence have a decision to make in Lab/SNP contests.
    I do wonder if in the end the ABT pull in Con/Lab seats will still be a strong factor in the end?
    Couper has a strong opinion re this but I do wonder in the end ….

  50. sorry for my ‘in the end’ fest went too quick!!

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