This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. The rest of the poll is a bit of a grab bag of other issues. Perceptions of the party leaders and the debates, some questions on UKIP and the Conservatives, rape and the former footballer Ched Evans, and assisted dying.

Cameron has the highest ratings of the party leaders on trust – or at least, the least untrustworthy. 32% trust him to tell the truth, 62% do not. The comparable figures for the other leaders are 25% for Ed Miliband, 22% trust Nigel Farage, 18% trust Nick Clegg.

88% and 87% think David Cameron and Ed Miliband should be included in the leader debates (presumably those opposed are those who don’t support the idea of debates at all, or whose support is wholly conditional on whether or not one of the other candidates are included), 79% think Nick Clegg should be included and 67% think Nigel Farage should be included. After that support drops away quickly, 51% think that the Green party leader Natalie Bennett should be included, only 25% think George Galloway should.

There is still very little support for a UKIP-Conservative pact. Nationwide only 14% of people would support one, Conservative party voters would oppose a pact by 50% to 30%, UKIP voters would oppose one by 56% to 26%). Local Conservative/UKIP pacts aren’t really any more popular, only 16% think the Conservative party should allow their candidates or members to agree local pacts with UKIP, Conservative voters would be opposed to it by 54% to 30%. In the event that the Conservatives lose Rochester 57% of people think that Cameron should remain leader and the overwhelming majority of Tory voters (92%) would back him – only 3% of Tory voters would want him to go. For the public at least, it doesn’t seem to be a resigning matter.

66% of people think that all instances of rape should continue to be treated as the same offence – that “rape is rape”. 25% think the law should have different categories of rape, depending on factors such as whether violence was involved. There is a significant gender difference, though perhaps not as large as one might have guessed – 31% of men think that there should be different categories of rape in law, 20% of women. There is widespread support for anonymity for both victims of rape and people accused of rape. 84% think it is right that people who are the victims of rape should have their identities protected, 77% think that people accused of rape should have their identities protected unless they are found guilty. 37% of people think that Ched Evans should be allowed to return to professional football, 45% think he should not. There is a sharper gender difference here – by 45% to 39% men think that he should be allowed to play, by 51% to 30% women think that he should not.

There is still very strong support for legalising assisted suicide for the terminally ill (72% support, 12% opposed), and more support (48%) than opposition (30%) for assisted suicide for those with painful, incurable but not terminal illnesses. Asked about whether people should be prosecuted for assisting a suicide, 14% think the current law should be enforced unless it is changed, 71% think the authorities should turn a blind eye.


669 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday TImes – CON 32, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 16, GRN 5%”

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  1. First?

  2. Second?

    Morning All.
    Narrow Labour lead, an over-high LD figure and UKIP with high figures, but with indeterminate effects on the Cons and on the Labs.

    Two hundred days to the GE?

  3. When’s the six-month-to-go mark? ‘Cos that’s when polls are supposed to more accurately predict, they say, so we can see how that works this time…

  4. November 8th I think?

  5. “37% of people think that Ched Evans should be allowed to return to professional football, 45% think he should not. There is a sharper gender difference here – by 45% to 39% men think that he should be allowed to play, by 51% to 30% women think that he should not.”
    ________

    No surprises in the huge differences between the genders.

    My own view is that he has done his time for his crime and he should be able to move on….however if I were a club chairman I would also be asking if the integrity of my club is more important than one football player.

    Football players being roll models and all that!!

  6. “88% and 87% think David Cameron and Ed Miliband should be included in the leader debates (presumably those opposed are those who don’t support the idea of debates at all, or whose support is wholly conditional on whether or not one of the other candidates are included), 79% think Nick Clegg should be included and 67% think Nigel Farage should be included. After that support drops away quickly, 51% think that the Green party leader Natalie Bennett should be included, only 25% think George Galloway should”
    ___________

    Was George Galloway prompted? I can’t imagine 25% of respondents saying George Galloway if they were just asked “Who do you think should be in the leader debates?”

    He represents one part of Bradford, what on earth would he be doing in any leader’s debates?

  7. Sunderland should cheer up, when it comes to counting votes quickly, they are unbeaten since 1987…

  8. ” …very little support for a UKIP-Conservative pact.”

    With prospective Tory candidates in Rochester & Strood adopting Ukip policies, Boris Johnson saying he can’t disagree with Ukip on anything, commitments to break with the ECHR, Gove preparing the way for dropping EU arrest warrants, Cameron inching ever closer to the Out position… why not just change the name from Conservative to An Independance From Europe/An Independence Party or something snappy like that?

  9. Back to the leaders debates. I think it’s right that only the parties who are fielding candidates (excluding NI) across the UK should be asked if they want to take part in any debates.

    As for Scotland and Wales, They should not have internal leader debates involving Labour, Tory or Lib/Dem because that would mean those parties having two bites at the cherry and would be a clear disadvantage to parties such as Plaid and the SNP.

    Instead they should hold a local political program interviewing the leader’s of Plaid and the SNP giving them the opportunity to elaborate on the UK leader’s debates.

    Why should voters in Wales have to listen to EM’s views in a UK debate then have to listen to the same old recycled stuff in Wales from Carwyn Jones?

  10. Regarding Rape.

    In the same way as with other crimes that do not have a mandatory sentence Judges have discretion on a finding of guilty to apply a range of tariffs taking into account mitigating and aggravating factors. Sentences range from around 4 to 20 Years.
    Clearly the Judge considered Mr Evans (5 Year sentence) to be at the bottom end of the tariff.

    That doesn’t mean He isn’t a rapist.

    In the same way as applies with other offences judges need to retain discretion.

  11. Billy Bob

    “An Independance From Europe”‘ party.

    We once had an ‘Independant’ candidate in my area, actually spelt like that on the ballot. I suppose returning officers are not required to correct spelling?

    [Technically speaking, either the returning officer cocked up the candidates perfectly valid description of independent, or unless it was a parish election (where anything goes) the nomination was invalid and should have been rejected. People are allowed to describe themselves as “Independent” or have a registered party description or have no description at all. “Independant” isn’t a registered party description so isn’t allowed – AW]

  12. Charts updated folks. Recommend a peek at the calendar month charts, and look at the six small images, noting the party trends.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/periodic-averages/calendar-month-averages/

    UKIP and the SNP having a good month or two, while the three main parties are all losing votes (presumably to Green in on the left of England & Wales politcs).

    Could this ‘plague on all your houses’ cause big policy announcements from the three main parties, and would they be believed?

  13. A roll model ?

    Sigh… :-(

  14. They are if it looks deliberate after Richard Huggett’s antics in the 1990s. He was apparently a bit Carswellesque, and a big fan of electronic referenda as a form of government.

    Allan Christie,

    That’s nonsense. You can’t just have a leaders’ debate for the UK, then give Sturgeon and Wood free reign to pick them apart and say why they’re great. The point of debates is you have the right to reply to points made by other participants.

  15. @ VALERIE

    “A roll model ?”

    Yes, a bit cheesy isn’t it? Although he could ham it up a bit.

  16. @howard

    Sorry. Good to see you’re going with the post-American Independence spelling variant though.

  17. MRNAMELESS

    Allan Christie,
    “That’s nonsense. You can’t just have a leaders’ debate for the UK, then give Sturgeon and Wood free reign to pick them apart and say why they’re great. The point of debates is you have the right to reply to points made by other participants”
    ____

    “The point of debates is you have the right to reply to points made by other participants” and clearly Plaid and the SNP are at an disadvantage on that basis.

    Why do we need internal debates in Wales and Scotland when they leaders will be representatives from the devolved parties squawking over a Westminster election?

    Okay so at a separate time have Surgeon giving her take on the UK leaders debates then after her bring in Lamont. I just can’t see why Labour, Tories and the Lib’s should have tow bites at the cherry. It’s a clear disadvantage to other parties.

  18. Norbold
    And of course psephologists, like our own AW, can be good poll models.

  19. Yes I meant Role model thanks..

  20. This debate about whether one rape is more serious than another saddens me. I think it is bringing the heat from one genuinely contentious question (what is the definition of rape) into a different question (are some rapes worse crimes than other rapes).

    The issue of whether some rapes are worse than others is crystal clear in English law. The answer is “Yes”. We have sentencing guidelines, with categories of aggravation and mitigation, which judges use literally daily to establish how “serious” a rape was. Some rapes attract life sentences. Some attract very short sentences (and still, occasionally, some attract non-custodial sentences although I think that is pretty rare these days).

    There is a separate question, because the definition of rape has changed radically in the past 20 years. It now includes penetration of the mouth, or using an object. And the definition of consent has also changed radically. There was a stated case that has clarified that under the new rules, consent is entirely conditional. In a case where a woman agreed to have sex only if her partner promised not to ejaculate, it was held that her consent was invalidated when he did so (and he was therefore guilty of rape).

    This broadening of definitions has, perhaps understandably, caused some friction as some crimes are now rape that many people don’t think of as rape when they use the plain English word.

    But the circumstances in Evans’ case would have amounted to rape even under the old, stricter definitions. So I see no problem with discussing how “bad” the rape was. The only line in Judy Finnegan’s comments I would disagree with was the “there was no violence used” bit. Violence takes many forms, and doesn’t have to involve punching people.

    As to a ban on Evans’ playing football. There is no provision in the law for that. It would amount to extra-judicial punishment (which is exactly what those arguing for it really want, I believe). For me it is a straightforward commercial calculation for the club, balancing possible benefits in their score-sheets against possible detriment to their reputation. The correct response for those who don’t want to see him play would be to organize a boycott of the club.

  21. I see a taxi coming.

  22. Good Afternoon All.
    I agree with ALLAN about the role model point. In my industry; education, there are certain offences which exclude people from returning to the ‘profession’.

  23. @ Neil A

    I am broadly in agreement with all your comments – especially the one which (paraphrased) says that all rapes are violence against the child/woman/man who has been assaulted.

    The only reason which I would consider valid for categorising rape charges, as opposed to sentencing, would be because it might:
    1. Make reporting of rape to the police more likely;
    2. Make charging the offence easier for police; &
    3. Make successful prosecution easier because the category might make it clearer to the jury that the perpetrator did commit the offence.

    Despite having said the above, I would need quite a bit of convincing that categorising would have the outcomes which I have suggested as possibilities.

    I also agree with you that any club which is/ is considering employing Evans should make the decision because he has a right to work in the trade of his choice, assuming he can find an employer. But selection to play for his country is not a right, it is a privilege, therefore I don’t think he should ever be chosen for a national team.

  24. @Howard.
    “An Independance” was chosen on alphabetical grounds to get mistaken UKIP votes. In one region it actually resulted in UKIP getting 1 less MEP (the beneficiary, through luck, the Greens). According to the EC, this was entirely legal.

  25. @ ChrisLane1945

    In my industry; education, there are certain offences which exclude people from returning to the ‘profession’.
    ———–
    I think that’s because children are in the care of teachers. I don’t see how people are in the care of a footballer; & people can choose to watch him play or not.

    Regarding teachers &/or footballers being role models, isn’t being a role model too subjective – one person’s idea of a role model may be another person’s idea of a p!llock?

  26. Two points if I can.

    Firstly the Scottish voting intention shift post Referendum is continuing. I think it’s safe to say on the basis of how many polls we have had that it is real but because it’s a trend in crossbreeds we can’t accurately predict it’s size…. all bit Quantum Physics!

    Secondly, having watched most of the Referendum debates more we poor than good and even the best ones weren’t that great so I think we should have a different format all together.

    I like a more inquisitorial come interview format where Party spokes people are quizzed by experts rather than politicians.

    I’d like to see how Osborne, balls and Cable faired against a panel of leading international economists.

    A bit like Mastermind with the contestants in the Black Chair not knowing the questions. They would all be asked the same questions and it would be up to the Programmer whether to show them one after another (live) or edit it to see each answer the same question one after another.

    I’d like to see a broadcaster go for it as an alternative.

    Peter.

  27. Of course there’s different types of rape and some are less serious than others. A 40 year old, forcing himself on a woman against her will using violence is obviously a lot more serious than a 16 year old and a 15 year old couple having consensual sex.

    The law says both are rape, even though we can clearly agree the top one is a serious crime whereas the bottom one shouldn’t be punished.

  28. AMBER STAR.
    There are no such ****** in my industry/’profession’. Tristram Hunt says so.

  29. @ ChrisLane

    Of course not; I was thinking of footballers. :-)

  30. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I’m not entirely understanding your logic – yes the Scottish and Welsh regional TV channels will have their own regional coverage of GE2015 and quite rightly SNP and PC will have their say but they must expect to share coverage with regional representatives of the UK parties – simply giving coverage at a local level only to PC and SNP would be an extraordinary bias in their favour (and yes, the regional spokespeople for the UK parties will, to some extent, repeat the national leadership views, so be it.)

  31. Nick Clegg is deluded if he thinks footballing ‘stars’ are capable of being good role models for young men.

    One only has to watch their behaviour to referees on MOTD on any Saturday.

    And I don’t think an offender who has been punished can be denied a livelihood unless there is good cause. Why should working in football make him a particular threat to women?

    Clearly it would be different if he was a teacher or a doctor.

  32. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    re Ched Evans

    I’m not surprised at the results given the actual question per the PDF: In 2012 Ched Evans, a footballer with Sheffield United, was found guilty of the rape of a 19 year woman who the court deemed was too drunk to consent to sex. Evans was sentenced to five years in prison. Evans is due to be released on parole this month, do you think he should or should not be allowed to return to playing professional football?

    What does surprise me, though is how few answers were allowed: only Yes, No and DK.

    What would interest me would be options based on his admission of guilt or at least fault which so far have not been offered. Without them, I’m somewhat surprised that only 30% of females are against his return to his former profession.

  33. Sorry
    ‘Clearly’ was not needed.

  34. @ManintheMiddle,

    In point of fact, consensual sex between a 16 year old and a 15 year is not rape. It is an offence, but not of rape (the US expression “statutory rape” is not relevant to the UK where we have separate offences under the Sexual Offences Act 2003 to cover underaged sex).

    @Amber,

    The law doesn’t sub-categorise the offence of rape, other than to specify in the indictment the basic mechanics of the offence. That’s not to say that the law never sub-categorises offences. The Sexual Offences Act 2003 is notorious for sub-categorising absolutely everything apart from rape creating a whole range of offences for what is basically sexual assault, depending on exactly who did what, and the age/gender of the offender and victim.

  35. Ooops……

    only 30% of females are against his return to his former profession should read

    … only 51% of females are against his return to his former profession …

  36. Of course ‘Literal Democrat’ was perhaps the most notorious (or clever, depending how you view these matters).

    Valerie, I noticed the error but you are braver than I.

    I think we are back to normal on this poll (almost wrote pole).

  37. VALERIE
    Why should working in football make him a particular threat to women?

    1. His lack of any remorse
    2. His status as an international, playing for his nation.

    Hardly a wonderful role model.

  38. There seems to be three possible solutions to people convicted of a serious offence returning to their former profession;

    Leave it up to the Judge, effectively part of the sentence.

    Leave it to the particular professional body involved, General Medical Council, Law Society, Teachers professional body or PFA

    or

    Leave it to the Employer to decided.

    On the difference between violent and non violent Rape I would class them both as Rape but charge the first perpetrator with both Rape and Assault.

    Peter.

  39. Aye Howard.
    Shouldn’t that read ‘braver than me’

  40. Val
    No.

  41. Valerie
    I pressed enter before giving reasons. The rule is that the unwritten ‘am brave’ is assumed in that sentence. Thus, full out, it reads well. Modern professors profess (well, that’s what they are there for) that ‘me’ and ‘us’ can be used as it has ‘become common usage’. In German or Dutch, they would think you were somewhat backward, were you to say or write ‘me’ in such cases.

    However, I believe the French say ‘moi’ so choose your stem, Romance or Germanic. I’m the latter.

  42. @ Barba

    Is role model in the job description for being a Championship footballer? And if you are saying offenders should not be allowed to work unless they show remorse, then the unemployment figures are going to shoot up.
    I take Amber’s point about him not being permitted to represent his country.

  43. I think the Ched Evans case has been complicated by the continuing judicial process which is not reflected in the YG poll. This aspect is now going to be “fast-tracked” to decide if there were grounds to suspect a miscarriage of justice. I would therefore say that this should resolved first. If the conviction is annulled then that that largely solves the issue of re-employment, although some clubs might take the view that there is a behavioural breach of contract. If the conviction is upheld then it is a calculation for a Club in deciding whether to employ him and the public in deciding whether to pay money to watch him, and perhaps also for the TV companies in deciding whether to televise matches in which he plays. Remorse, if genuine, could change the respective calculations. For the future FA should consider if there are certain crimes after which re-employment was not permitted, but this cannot be done retrospectively for the Evans case. EU law may also apply.

  44. Ah Howard, I stand corrected and I’ve learned something useful whilst whiling away my time on this board. :-)
    Still it is Sunday

  45. I presume that the Sunday Times specified the “candidates” they wanted to be considered for participation in the 2015 “leader” debates, but note that they have immediately trashed an argument used to “justify” only including leaders of GB-wide parties. Cameron, Miliband, Clegg & Farage qualify on that heading but Bennett’s party only stands in England & Wales whilst in 2010 Galloway’s party only stood in England.

    At the very least, it would have been good to see “Should other GB” party leaders participate in the debates?” asked.

  46. Carfew re 6 months.

    I think that AW said (but I may be recalling inaccurately) that the predictive models become mor accurate from around 6 months out, not necessarily the polls themselves?

    I think this parliament we will have to wait until at least 2 weeks after the R&S By-Election as the result will almost certainly have some impact on subsequent polls.

    Trouble is for us poll-wacthers, there may not be a window between the ephemera of the By-Election after affects and the autumn statement when polls will be more reliable.

    We may have to get to 4 months out in mid-Jan?

  47. VALERIE
    And if you are saying offenders should not be allowed to work unless they show remorse, then the unemployment figures are going to shoot up.

    I did not and do not say that. However, I do suggest all professional bodies should have a publicly available code of conduct for those convicted of sex offences, especially those released after a custodial sentence.

    If any of the FA, FAW, SFA or PFA do have a code of conduct they hide it pretty well on their websites.

    If copy and paste isn’t working please free to call me BZ

  48. Roykite

    One presumes that the negotiations will be about whether it can be made legal via a change in the rules or not.

    I don’t think anyone was suggesting it would be legal without changes but have fun with your man of straw.

  49. I don’t buy Reckless’ paranoia but someone’s polling in R&S: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29681075

  50. @MrN, it’s not a proper poll, they just claim to be polling but it’s really just a smear tactic.

    I doubt Cameron himself officially ordered push polling, but it’s hard to see how it’d come from any source other than Conservative campaign. UAF perhaps? It’s a stretch.

    The whole primary expenses not counting thing also stinks. The traditional 3 parties break the 100k limit at will, but this & Newark are egregious examples.

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