This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. The rest of the poll is a bit of a grab bag of other issues. Perceptions of the party leaders and the debates, some questions on UKIP and the Conservatives, rape and the former footballer Ched Evans, and assisted dying.

Cameron has the highest ratings of the party leaders on trust – or at least, the least untrustworthy. 32% trust him to tell the truth, 62% do not. The comparable figures for the other leaders are 25% for Ed Miliband, 22% trust Nigel Farage, 18% trust Nick Clegg.

88% and 87% think David Cameron and Ed Miliband should be included in the leader debates (presumably those opposed are those who don’t support the idea of debates at all, or whose support is wholly conditional on whether or not one of the other candidates are included), 79% think Nick Clegg should be included and 67% think Nigel Farage should be included. After that support drops away quickly, 51% think that the Green party leader Natalie Bennett should be included, only 25% think George Galloway should.

There is still very little support for a UKIP-Conservative pact. Nationwide only 14% of people would support one, Conservative party voters would oppose a pact by 50% to 30%, UKIP voters would oppose one by 56% to 26%). Local Conservative/UKIP pacts aren’t really any more popular, only 16% think the Conservative party should allow their candidates or members to agree local pacts with UKIP, Conservative voters would be opposed to it by 54% to 30%. In the event that the Conservatives lose Rochester 57% of people think that Cameron should remain leader and the overwhelming majority of Tory voters (92%) would back him – only 3% of Tory voters would want him to go. For the public at least, it doesn’t seem to be a resigning matter.

66% of people think that all instances of rape should continue to be treated as the same offence – that “rape is rape”. 25% think the law should have different categories of rape, depending on factors such as whether violence was involved. There is a significant gender difference, though perhaps not as large as one might have guessed – 31% of men think that there should be different categories of rape in law, 20% of women. There is widespread support for anonymity for both victims of rape and people accused of rape. 84% think it is right that people who are the victims of rape should have their identities protected, 77% think that people accused of rape should have their identities protected unless they are found guilty. 37% of people think that Ched Evans should be allowed to return to professional football, 45% think he should not. There is a sharper gender difference here – by 45% to 39% men think that he should be allowed to play, by 51% to 30% women think that he should not.

There is still very strong support for legalising assisted suicide for the terminally ill (72% support, 12% opposed), and more support (48%) than opposition (30%) for assisted suicide for those with painful, incurable but not terminal illnesses. Asked about whether people should be prosecuted for assisting a suicide, 14% think the current law should be enforced unless it is changed, 71% think the authorities should turn a blind eye.


669 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday TImes – CON 32, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 16, GRN 5%”

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  1. @Amber
    I thought they at least had a positive discrimination/legal minimum gender ratio thing for business.

  2. “But voting SNP is not a ‘wasted vote’ when in many parts of Scotland the SNP is either the incumbent or the main challenger.”

    Well I was making more of a general point regarding your comments about UKIP and the Greens. Even so, I don’t think the post-referendum boost in SNP support will carry through to the GE. Just my guess, though. We’ll only know for sure on the 8th of May.

  3. @Amber Star
    You say “No other party has done anything like as much as Labour has done to promote gender equality”.

    I would agree with you, when you look at what Labour has done to ensure that there are more women MPs. Well done Labour for that. I should say that I am a man, and I am not a committed Labour voter.( However, this time in my constituency, a vote for Labour seems the best thing to do.)

    On another subject, before the last General Election, in 2005, you posted something on this site which stuck in my mind. You said that, in Labour circles, Nick Clegg was regarded as pro-Tory, unlike previous Lib Dem leaders who were not so regarded. All I can say is how right you were on that too.

  4. @Old Nat

    Thanks for the link. However, as usual the London journalists are still catching up.

    @RogerH
    I’m sure that some of my ancestors would have been there as well, had they had time to arrive from the north……
    But of course, you know fine well that’s not what I meant!

  5. @RogerH

    And, like you, I would expect the Scottish VIs to return to something like ‘normal’ by next May. It’s just that, as yet, there seems little sign of it happening. If it doesn’t happen, then Labour, and as the song goes “Edward”, will have to think again!

  6. @Norbold

    What I meant is – why is labour list having to ask for donations for leaflets for Rochester? Where is the head office funding? Why are we not seeing 5 visits from Miliband and all of the shadow cabinet and 3 visits from every Labour MP? Where are the 1000 activists in one weekend like we have seen with the Tories?

    Why is there no serious campaign in other words? UKIP is only 20% of the electorate, so I am thinking there is 80% who don’t think UKIP offer the answers. If the Tories elect a UKIP lite candidate and keep drifting right to recapture their UKIP defectors, that is the chance for Labour to paint Tory= UKIP and offer something different and attack the Tory left?

    Instead the Labour party seems to be scared to engage. Too timid if you ask me.

  7. RogerH

    I think you may be generalising from experience in England, where Westminster is your only Parliament, and the Tories are a major party.

    I posted a wee while back that 40+% of GB voters didn’t think that having had a Labour Government since 2010 would have made any difference to the economy of the country, or their household. There is little discernible difference between Con & Lab on defence or foreign affairs.

    How England handles its councils, education, health etc matters little to those outwith England.

    With independence off the table for the short/medium term, where the Westminster election is of huge importance is that whatever further powers to be devolved to Scotland will be decided by the incoming UK Government. That doesn’t just matter to the “45+”, but a fair swathe of No voters as well.

    Experience has shown, that the initiative for devolution has come in response to an increase in SNP support.

    Electing MPs from Scotland’s largest party makes sense in these circumstances.

    If Scots see May 2015 through a Scottish prism, then a higher number of SNP MPs should be expected. If they are persuaded that either Con or Lab have any likelihood of improving the UK economy, then things may be different.

  8. RAF

    CDROM is fighting for his political life. He’s clearly decided that his only play against UKIP is to overplay his hand on EU/immigration, hope that does enough to win in May and then worry about the consequences later.

    Of course, politicians in a corner don’t necessarily act in ways that are in the country’s best interests. By playing this game, he could well lead us blundering into an EU exit that he doesn’t want.

  9. Err. Cameron, not CDROM.

    Bloody surreal iPhone.

  10. SNP in 2015?
    There are several barriers to big success for the SNP in UK elections. The first is well understood on this site, that most seats, almost all seats held by Labour have large majorities. So a particularly large swing is needed. But secondly in the areas in which the nationalists will be most hopeful, the voters need a Labour government with a special desperation.
    The prospect of a separate Scotland with the promises that the radicals for independence were holding out of protected benefits and massive job provision might be motivating but the possibility of Labour failing to have a majority because of the SNP may not be attractive.
    With this in mind the SNP will have to achieve a vision in the mind of the prospect of a party which attacks Labour but supports it. This will be made more difficult by talk of the 45 etc etc. The current vote for depute leader will throw a sidelight on this as the outside hope, Ms Constance, will be trying to mobilise the fundamentalists for all out war on Labour. So it will be worth watching the outcome (though Mr Brown has the MSPs largely behind him)
    In the past, over confidence has hampered the SNP and we should remember that in 2015 Mr Salmond promised that there would be at least 20 SNP MPs who would, in his unlovely phrase, force the UK to “dance to a Scottish jig.”

  11. New thread ahead.

  12. CDROM and deputu MINI-DISC

  13. Re: my last post of course the last General Election was in 2010 not 2005. Sorry

  14. MIKE N

    Carfrew “..it may not gain Cons many votes…”

    Can you confirm how many votes have been gained?

    —————–

    How on earth can I confirm it has gained them votes when their VI is down near 30 and I was suggesting that it may NOT gain many votes????????

    I said may NOT gain many votes. How hard is that to understand?

  15. BARNEY CROCKETT
    With this in mind the SNP will have to achieve a vision in the mind of the prospect of a party which attacks Labour but supports it.

    Point taken, but surely the $64,000 question will be: Can the Labour Party generate any trust from the non-voters RIC persuaded to register and gave hope, and will they turn out in 2015 as they did in 2014?

  16. @Roger

    What the polls tell us is that (apparently) Labour are not getting the votes in Scotland that they once were. They’ll have to earn them this time.

    The voters know it’s Westminster, and some believe that both Con and Lab are toxic.

  17. @MIKE N

    “…it has slashed Labour VI…”

    “Are you sure it’s only immigration (welfare) that has achieved this? Where is the supporting evidence?”

    —————-

    Well, the fact Labour’s VI started heading South once Crosby arrived, and they started putting the vans out and the press assault began on tbe matter is a bit of a giveaway. As was the associated rise in Ukip. And especially the way immigration rose to become the number one most salient issue in the Mori tracker. Peeps also did churn analyses at the time showing how some voters, having gone to Labour after 2010 then went from Lab to Ukip.

  18. @OLDNAT

    Fact is, though, that in 2010 the SNP received 19.9% of the vote. They’ll probably improve on that but it’s 40 years since they managed more than 25%; the idea that they’re going to jump to 38% or so is improbable, referendum or no referendum.

  19. @Rogerh

    In 2011 the SNP got 45% of the vote – so possible they could replicate that for Westminster.

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