So far today we have three new opinion polls, all conducted since the Clacton by-election result. Yesterday’s Survation poll was conducted just on Friday, in the immediate glare of the post by-election publicity, and saw UKIP spikng up to 25%, three points above Survation’s record high for the party. Today’s polls were conducted over the weekend and seem to show a more mixed picture.

Populus – CON 35%(+1), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1) (tabs)
Ashcroft – CON 28%(-4), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(+2), GRN 5%(-2) (tabs)
ICM – CON 31%(-2), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 14%(+5), GRN 4% (tabs)

Populus have UKIP unchanged at 13%, and have recently had UKIP as high as 15% so this certainly doesn’t reflect any sort of new high. Ashcroft has UKIP up two points since last week, equalling their record high from an Ashcroft poll, but not breaking new ground. ICM have the most impressive showing for UKIP, up five points on last month’s poll – a significant boost compared to the 9%-10% UKIP have been registering in recent ICM polls, but below ICM’s previous highs for UKIP. We still have the daily YouGov/Sun poll to come, but so far the overall picture from today’s polls is looking like a respectable UKIP boost on the back of their by-election success, rather than a huge breakthrough.


473 Responses to “Latest Populus, Ashcroft and ICM polls”

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  1. “CARFREW………..Now who’s doing the stereotyping ? :-)”

    ———–

    Eh?

  2. The thing that annoys me about the Inheritance Tax is the name. It’s an estate tax!

  3. @Gray

    Thanks for your post… shall pop out to try and find what’s going on and reply later ‘cos it seems around midday is when the retirees come out in force!!…

  4. CARFREW…………Your post to SHEVII at 11-45. Do keep up. :-)

  5. Funty Pippin,

    I prefer “death tax”.

  6. @ Ken

    I didn’t know Chelski had been nationalised :-)

    @ Chounlai

    My experience of people who inherit from a wealthy parent is that they go one of two ways- either they are highly motivated to emulate their parents’ success and work very hard to do this or they are indeed lazy because there is no imperative to work.

    I’ve never been able to work out why some go one way and the others do the opposite especially as you seem to get differences within the same family.

    I can see TOH’s philosophical argument about inheritance Tax but this can apply to anything- VAT for example. Given we have to raise taxes, inheritance Tax seems one of the least damaging ways to do this, although much of the economy now seems to be based on parents passing down wealth to help their kids buy a house etc.

  7. @Ken

    You don’t seem to know what stereotyping is, unless you think issues with paintwork is a common stereotype. That was just a joke. Now if you don’t mind, I must crack on…

  8. Ken
    Young lovely Russian lady wishes to meet me.

    Carfrew
    Your point about why the stupendous achievements of coalition, Tory led government, is struggling to level with Labour is simple.
    Immigration, Immigration, Immigration. If the Tories had got a half decent handle on the subject, rather than blather and there was clear evidence that control existed, UKIP would be on 6 points and the Tories would by on 42.
    This truth maybe most unsavory to your good self, but it exists.

  9. SHEVII………..If you follow the money-go-round argument, anti-clockwise, Chelski is a product of public sector spending. :-)

  10. Regarding unemployment figures – I don’t agree with all the ‘low paid’, ‘wrong type of jobs’ arguments. Being in work is always better than no work – there is a chance of promotion, move to a better paid job, overtime. Eventually building up to no longer needing state support.

    Labour should be congratulation the government and promoting work. By saying ‘wrong type of jobs’ they perpetuate the idea that Labour would rather have people on the dole.

    Of course Labour should still advocate Living Wage and tax regimes that help lowest paid but not as a criticism of current unemployment figures. The fact we are coming through the recession without mass unemployment is something very good.

  11. @Chouenlai

    Just quickly: It’s not just immigration. Check the polling on personal finances. Hence everyone analysing wages and inflation and tax credits and stuff…

  12. IPSOS MORI

    Con 30
    Lab 33
    UKIP 16
    LD 8

    Others 13

  13. New Mori poll

    Lab 33% : Con 30% : UKIP 16% : LD 8% (leaving 13% for others)

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/backing-farages-ukip-is-no-longer-a-wasted-vote-poll-shows-9795884.html

  14. Snap!

  15. Huffington Post have a recording of Lord Freud’s comments on disabled working for £2 an hour.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10/15/lord-freud-minimum-wage_n_5988374.html?1413371784

  16. Carfrew

    I disagree with Black Scholes being useful. Late reply, but I need sleep.

    Very pretty mathematics, but when applied to real option pricing the results are nonsensical. Essentially it claims that the volatility of the underlying varies with strike price/time remaining on the option as the only way to map the model to real world prices. Ultimately the assumptions put into the models were too simple, it’s useful as a toy model but it’s better to admit that it breaks down rather than try to fit an implied volatility smile and believe it perfectly fits option pricing.

    Similar mess with CDO pricing goes on, and heavily leveraged CDOs were one of the reason the financial crisis hit so hard. “It’ll never be this bad” unfortunately their estimates of never might well have been several orders of magnitude out and their hedging of risk exposed the bank to serious risks by heavily leveraging “safe” tranches of debt to cover the risks they had.

    Models are well and good but you need to understand their limitations, a princinple which I doubt most city boys understand or care about.

    Plug numbers into model, make money, when model goes wrong hide losses and continue to use model in the belief it’ll come good.

    Easier than try to inspect why the model and reality deviated.

  17. Pay or jobs?
    There is a French film on release at the moment on this topic.
    Ineos at Grangemouth?
    The management here wanted to eliminate the union (Unite) from historically a strong position, threatening exit and the transfer of work to Norway. The union was forced to concede and the UK government put up grants and Scottish Government loans. It is in the nature of these deals to be precarious and many believe it will be short-lived. The wider implications are serious because power associated with the plant is crucia
    l to the whole system of moving oil and gas around the North Sea pipelines

  18. I don’t see why voters necessarily worry about the affluent being “triple-taxed” by paying inheritance tax.

    People pay tax thrice all the time.

    (1) They pay income tax and NIC

    (2) They put some of their earnings after tax in a non-Isa and pay tax on the interest.

    (3). They use what’s left of the paltry interest to treat themselves and pay VAT.

    Inheritance tax is not a special case.

  19. A Freudian slip……………….

  20. @ Carfrew
    “To absolutely put the seal on it …”
    As Fowler said, better to split the infinitive than to create an ambiguity in meaning or an ugliness in expression.
    My objection is that you split the infinitive by inserting the meaningless “absolutely”. How does one seal something absolutely? Most “ly” adverbs are redundant, rhetorical attempts to make a statement more authoritative.

    On Universities. the first part of your post is concerned with your logical deductions about the assessment of degrees; the second, data-supported part, with their content.
    I cannot remember your original post or my reply in any detail. My point was simply [see how these “ly” devils creep in] that if similar standards were applied in different universities then, given the undoubted higher calibre of the Oxbridge students, the latter would get better degrees.

    I provided some data to show that in recent times the proportion of Oxbridge students getting firsts was more than double that found in Russell G. universities, data compatible with the notion that standards were similar but the students different.
    Oxbridge students still get twice as many firsts but the proportion of them doing so has increased from under 20% to well over 30%, with a similar relative increase at other unis.
    Again, data compatible with the idea that standards at different Unis move in sympathy with one another.

  21. Isn’t the best time to pay tax when you’re dead?

  22. Best time to spend money is when you are alive.

  23. “Isn’t the best time to pay tax when you’re dead?”

    Never tried.

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