This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAN 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Yesterday’s YouGov poll was also back to a small Labour lead, so it looks as if the Tory lead immediately following Cameron’s speech may have fallen away again. My advice would normally be to wait for a few more polls to see where things settle down, but of course tonight we have a potentially poll changing event in its own right – the Clacton and Heywood & Middleton by-elections.

YouGov also have some polling on the Human Rights Act. Asked their reaction to the Conservative policy based on what they’ve seen or heard 43% say they support it, 23% are opposed. Asked about some of the actual details of the policy people are more mixed – there is support (by 48% to 32%) for saying British courts should not take into account the rulings of the the European Court of Human Rights, but much more even divisions on other parts of the policy. 40% think that Britain should not have to change the law if the ECHR rules our laws are infringing human rights, 36% think such laws should have to be changed; 40% think human rights should be limited for those who have broken the law themselves, 39% think they should apply to all; people are split 41%-41% on whether human rights laws should apply to all cases or only serious ones. By 47% to 29% people think human rights laws should apply to British soldiers overseas. Of course, public support for policies isn’t based on a balancing up of all the details in a policy, which most people will never really be aware of anyway. They are more likely to be based on a rough understanding of the broad approach – in this case I expect the initial answer is based upon gut level support for “stopping foreign judges telling us what to do”, hence the broad policy being more popular than most of the individual parts that make it up.

477 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 14”

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  1. Faisal Islam has spotted a flaw in the Con response to Ukip:

    Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 3h 3 hours ago
    How can Conservatives both argue that last nights results a. “put Ed Miliband closer to Downing Street” and b. “were worse” for Ed Miliband?

  2. “New Lab MP was like a rabbit trapped in the headlights in that interview”

    On the plus side, it is probably the last time she will ever be required to appear on national TV.

  3. Colin

    I think there is a danger in quoting someone, as some kind of evidence or to prove a point ?, without knowing much about them.
    Probably best to Google them first.

  4. @Colin

    Ahahahaha. Conventionally, if you don’t know what it means you might seek further explanation. It’s when people do know what it means but don’t like it that they wanna stop…

    But put simply, what is provided does not simply depend on what you are spending now. I bought my hifi a while ago, it no longer requires investment*, but I am still benefiting from it. Many libraries and schools etc. cost money in the past, we don’t have to rebuild them eachbyear, we only pay for upkeep, and keep benefiting.

    If the State pays to reclaim a brownfield site now, it shows up in current spending but they can keep earning benefits in the future without having to keep paying to reclaim the site. Or the State could invest in research that shows up in current spending now, little GDP boost, but years later you get the GDP boost.

    Conversely, a state could start selling off provision, assets, libraries etc., getting a short term improvement in spending now, but losing provision in the longer term.

    * Except, well, one always yearns for a bit more hifi…


    “I thought Colin and Carswell were revving up for another epic Econo-Joust. But they’re just ‘gardening’ by the looks of things. TGFT say I.”


    Nah, Col. doesn’t joust with me much these days. He just wants me to shush, lol. I doubt he’s alone…

  6. @Allan Christie

    I don’t think UKIP is opposed to the rise of China, probably quite the opposite as China supports the UK leaving the EU…. (Well, they said they don’t OPPOSE it, probably not the same) In fact the Rise of China/India simply adds further weight to the UKIP cause that Europe is a dead and decaying continent and it’s better off trading with the rest.

  7. And the reason why few of us kippers are on this comment section is because the attitude of many posters towards UKIP here are rather outdated and condescending. It’s nowhere near twitter levels of awful but it does get quite tiring reading the same boring nonsense slander again and again.

  8. I thought of posting (seems most others have) but could not think of anything useful to say about the by -elections, except perhaps speculation, which I don’t indulge in much.
    Remember that the ST yougov poll will be about field work that began yesterday afternoon and finishes in a few hours time. It will thus not be greatly influenced, if at all, by last night’s results.

    I’ve just read this headline in the EADT.
    ” Clacton: Conservative’s Priti Patel MP admits UKIP are stealing votes from her party”.

    This is what we need the local press for – so informative.

  9. @Alan
    Your projections on GDP per capita for China/US are way off.

    The furthest data I have is 2030.

    China: 23834
    USA: 65000
    India: 6684
    Source: Trading economics

    I think you are for some reason assuming the US won’t grow at all during the period?

  10. COLIN

    If there was a queue of further defectors available-would NF have not destroyed the Con Conference by announcing them all?

    Does this mean there aren’t any more-at present.

    Probably not. I think you’ve got to remember that MPs tend to tied into their Party as much socially as politically. Most will have been members since their teens, have made many of their friends that way, met their partners through it and so on. So breaking away is a big step with a lot of complications for their lives. It means that not many will choose to go except in the situation when a party splits, as effectively was the case with the SDP and effectively a big chunk of a social group moves together.

    The only people who defect therefore tend to be the ideologically-driven loners such as Carswell and Reckless, people who are often outsiders in their current Party.

  11. I was saying back in May 2010 that the LDs had an existential problem on their hands. They had campaigned for 2 generations as the All-Things-To-All-Centrist-People party. The moment they had to actually get into bed with one side or the other, that facade was blown away forever.

    Polling 1 and 5% in seats where they had 13 and 22% just 4.5 years ago is no more of a collapse than I expected back then. They are finished as a popular national party for a generation at least, even though they may get some local traction and may even hold the balance power in 2015. One big question for anyone using the LDs in a coalition is how toxic a collaboration with the LDs would be. If (like 2010) there is an outcome next May that makes a Con/LD or a Lab/LD coalition the only stable deal on the table, I expect the senior partner to drive a ferociously hard bargain and give the LDs very little. No Deputy PM. No senior Govt posts. Perhaps a very junior Cabinet post. And a “support 95% of our policies or else we’ll throw you to the electoral wolves for another mauling” ultimatum.

  12. I think China’s GDP/head will overtake the USA’s slightly after AC’s estimate of the SNP membership overtakes the entire population of China.

    Reflecting on last night, I thought neither Ms McInnes nor Ms Patel dealt remotely adequately with the inescapable truth that UKIP did astonishingly well in both by-elections. Ms M was all ‘endorsement for Ed M and his policies’ and ‘ask UKIP why they did well, how would I know?’ which was hardly convincing and Ms P was all ‘we worked really hard on the doorstep and will do the same in Rochester, and the Cons Long Term Economic Plan will win out’ whilst AN pointed out that all that had been an abject failure, a fact she seemed unable to grasp.

    All of this to me fed the story (I suppose in these days I should call it a meme) that the big 2 are in denial about UKIP and have no idea how to counter them. You’d think Lab in particular would have worked out a mantra to be repeated whenever UKIP raises its ugly head until it becomes part of the language (like ‘Mess they left us in’, ‘Cost of living crisis’, ‘Long term economic plan’)

    Yesterday catastrophic for Con and, whilst not disastrous, miserable for Lab.


    I think you missed the point I was making-no matter-happens all the time to me :-)


    :-) ……….you might say that-I couldn’t po…….


    Thanks !

  15. SKIPPY

    @”outdated and condescending.”

    “Condescending” hasn’t yet “dated” here Skippy :-)


    @”It means that not many will choose to go”


    Which was why I asked the question “Does this mean there aren’t any more-at present.”

  17. @Roger Mexico

    Tory MPs are sometimes cut loose from the friendly society anyway… when they lose their seat.

  18. The bookies now have Reckless at 2/5 for Rochester.
    I would think the next batch of defectors will wait and see how that one pans out.

  19. @Colin

    “Which was why I asked the question “Does this mean there aren’t any more-at present.””

    Assuming Farage isn’t lying (which is a distinct possibility) – it is possible that some more Cons have expressed an interest in jumping ship, or have talked about it, but haven’t fully decided (for one reason or another). Craswell’s victory might make some of them more likely to defect now that they can see that it is possible to win under a UKIP banner.

  20. Guymonde

    Labour and mantras haven’t really meshed these last few years have they? They gave up the argument on the deficit because they couldn’t rebut the Deficit Denier mantra. Miliband has never had an off-pat response to the “you’re weird” accusation. And now, no standard response to UKIP.

    It all smacks of a fingers in ears and “laa-laa-laa, we’re not listening to you” approach. It might still work, but it’s a high-risk strategy.

  21. Now that he is famous I suppose we will have to get used to Carswell being less subject to malapropisms.

    I too am guilty, calling him Carslake the other day.

  22. It doesn’t seem possible to save Osborne being called Osbourne though.

  23. @Colin

    “how many are busy saying ” It was good for my party & bad for the others””

    It was bad for all parties, and especially for UKIP.

    Now they will have to face the other parties with something to lose.

    (you can spin anything if you want to)

  24. For all the fuss about last night’s result, thinking about it, if UKIP hadn’t won in Clacton, they wouldn’t have ever been able to win a parliamentary constituency anywhere. It is absolutely the best demographic for UKIP (like Brighton Pavilion is for the Greens and Bethnal Green and Bow was for Respect), but added to that, they were fighting in a by-election where they could pour the vast sums of money they have into the constituency (iirc spending limit is around 20 times what it would be in a General Election), AND were able to fight it with a candidate with an extremely strong personal vote. Moreover, that strong personal vote at the same time had previously been for their main contender and was now denied the Tories. On top of that add in the by-election protest vote factor that has been noted for decades (iirc it was visible before Orpington 1962, with Commonwealth winning by-elections). It was also within 5 months after a European election, and with a Tory-led govt (Tory govts are more fertile for smaller parties of the right, Labour govts are more fertile for smaller parties of the left). All told, while they are celebrating today kippers should also be heaving a sigh of relief.

  25. @Carfrew

    RE: Footie Boards.

    It demonstrates just how little of politics is results-based, and how much of it is perception. A party can win an election and be hated all in the same week (although I suppose a team can win the treble and be hated by the opposition supporters).

    At least with football, the psychology has limits, and it’s the points that win prizes. Maybe party forums are similar to club forums.

  26. Joining in here about 12 hours after a by election is like calling at a house where a few drunken guests from last night’s party are still lounging about in the living room clutching mugs of black coffee.

  27. colin


    As a simple litmus test [Snip – no one here should be a representative of a Tory supporter, they should be leaving their policies at the door]

    The Tories have been on this descent due to Europe for thirty years.

    Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad: I think there is a lot to be said for the idea that Farage’s aim is to destroy all vestiges of the Heseltine/Clark/Grieve Tory party and then assimilate the rest to challenge in 2020 and lead us out of Europe.

    I think Cameron has played a very bad hand fairly poorly but it is hard to see what else he could have done. The problem is, as was commented last night on TV, nobody really knows who he is or what he actually believes in.

    Anyway, as someone said, they results were interesting.

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