Populus and Lord Ashcroft have both published new polls today. Lord Ashcroft’s poll echoes YouGov’s post conference polls in showing a small Tory lead – CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% (tabs here). In contrast today’s Populus poll still shows a robust Labour lead, as did their Friday poll – CON 31%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15% (tabs here).

Lord Ashcroft also conducted A poll on the forthcoming Heywood and Middleton by-election. Topline figures there are CON 16%(-11), LAB 47%(+7), LDEM 5%(-18), UKIP 28%(+25). While Labour and UKIP are both a little lower than in the previous Survation poll the nineteen point lead is exactly the same, and it looks like we can expect a comfortable Labour hold.


752 Responses to “Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls”

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  1. tonights YouGov will be interesting. Continuing Con lead or Lab back where they have been until the last couple of polls.

  2. Just waiting for Yougov, then bed.

  3. First & second

  4. “ord Ashcroft also conducted A poll on the forthcoming Heywood and Middleton by-election. Topline figures there are CON 16%(-11), LAB 47%(+7), LDEM 5%(-18), UKIP 28%(+25)”
    ________

    There you go…..another by-election poll and the Lib/Dems in lost deposit territory again.

    Anyone who thinks this lot can recover nationally needs to see a doctor.

  5. Firsts & Seconds – that’s just greedy :-)

  6. Holy Mother of God. I think we’re going to have to redefine margin of error. Or get better tranquillisers.

  7. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that Populus is right. AW opines that the Populus figures give ‘a robust Labour lead’. Fine.

    So, let’s just see whether Labour are happy with the Populus figures. You have to take them all – the good and the bad. At least, I assume so…..

    And then, having the Labour supporters’ agreement that Populus is reliable, let us put the Scottish figures into Westminster Votes. Result?

    Seats won: Labour 10, LDs 3, Conservatives 1, SNP 45.

    Either Populus is very, very wrong, or something very strange is happening in Scotland….. you can’t have it both ways….. can you? So which is it?

  8. No Sun tweet?

  9. @Lefty,

    Nope. Keep checking. I guess Labour are back in front.

  10. TARK.
    Ave to you.
    Exciting politics at the moment.

    A.CHRISTIE I have been worried about Lib Dems for some time.

    The H and M swing is 9% from Con to Lab. Quite high.

  11. Just heard a report of Cable’s speech today.

    Tories are ideologically driven to cuts because they want to shrink the state.

    Tories detest the NHS.

    We should borrow to invest in infrastructure.

    Borrowing for investment is fine when interest rates are so low.

    Hmmm Vince. I assume you’ll be agreeing that Labour made the right call on the economy over the past 5 years then? And I struggle to understand how you’ve managed to look into your soul and vote with the Tories these past 5 years.

  12. Sun Politics latest twitter post is an allegation that Carswell signed off an attack campaign against UKIP just before joining then.

    Maybe this is that start of Pressman’s anti Ukip campaign.

  13. The lack of response to my earlier contribution may meant that no-one is interested in the macbethian side of polling. Fine. But can anyone explain where Labour are going to make up a loss of 31 Scottish seats?

    That is, if Populus is to be believed……

  14. @John B

    Maybe Populus is weighted UK wide rather than the Scottish cross breaks being separately weighted.

  15. John – as a Labour supporter I prefer YG to Populus as a trend is discernable due to frequency – also Populus’ 2010 weightings often odd.

    I do though subscribe to needing more than 2 YGs to signify I change.
    does 2 x Tory leads in YG suggest a DC speech bounce.

  16. Better now
    I do though subscribe to needing more than 2 YGs to signify change.
    Although 2 x Tory leads in YG does suggest a DC speech bounce.

  17. We’ve been taught many times to disregard the Scottish crossbreaks. If you listen to the crossbreaks, the 18-24s swing wildly between the Tories, Labour and the Greens every other day.

  18. With regard to Cable I suspect the trappings of the job compensate his conscience.

    I agree with him the Tories want to shrink the state, whether that motivation is getting better value or idealogical I am not sure. Hating the NHS though if he said that he is a fool.

  19. Perhaps no YouGov poll tonight?

  20. @Anthony

    Does the Sun have to first publish the poll before you can disclose it?

  21. OK, I give up. Where is that pesky YouGov?

  22. OK.

    So let’s turn to Ashcroft.

    His figures, more Labour friendly and showing less support for the SNP

    result in

    Tory 0
    LD 3
    Labour 13
    SNP 43

    Let’s see what happens by this time next week……..

  23. Ask Tom Newton Dunn.

  24. JOHN B

    ” But can anyone explain where Labour are going to make up a loss of 31 Scottish seats?”
    ________

    Postal votes….they will find extra seats in them postal votes. ;-)

  25. @ John B

    Either Populus is very, very wrong, or something very strange is happening in Scotland….. you can’t have it both ways….. can you? So which is it?
    ————-
    There’s 47 undecided voters in the Scottish sample. Labour needs to win them all over to voting Labour. Then Labour will have 77/183 = 42% just like 2010.

    It’s a tough job – but Labour have been known to play a blinder when things are down to the wire.

    Of course the entire Scottish sample may have come from Dundee, in which case…. ;-)

  26. Populus polled 2037 people, Ashcroft 1002.

    So it seems Labour still lead, and will gain more when the LibDem onslaught on the misjudged Tory conference is absorbed by floating voters.

  27. The Scottish figures are so much out of kilter with the rest of the UK that:

    either they will need to be ignored completely between now and next May (as suggested by Mr. Nameless et al) with the risk that everyone goes on assuming that the overall figures are trustworthy

    or many more Scots are going to have to be polled in order to find out what is really going on…..

  28. …Tom Newton Dunn, oh Tom Newton Dunn,
    Furnish’d and burnish’d by Aldershot sun,
    What strenuous singles we played after tea,
    We in the tournament – you against me!…

  29. I think the libdem conference bashing of the tories ie the return of the nasty party screwing the working poor etc etc will push labour vi up a few points

  30. The biggest issue I see is that back in ’89/’90 when the LibDems were polling in this range, they had the Continuing SDP to blame for splitting their “core” vote, and they had room for (positive) by-election surprises to help their standing. The Greens’ rise is not the same as the SDP situation at all (that was an out-and-out split in the party resulting from the merger) and the only “surprises” the LibDems are facing is that of lost deposits.

    Particularly troubling is that with the exception of Eastleigh (which was an LD seat at the last election, obviously) the LibDems haven’t saved a by-election deposit since 2012…and they’re set, as far as I can tell, to drop three more.

  31. Maybe the latest YouGov is so sensational that they’re embargoing it until the Sun is published tomorrow morning???

    8% Tory lead perhaps?

    :-)

  32. CHRISLANE1945
    .
    “A.CHRISTIE I have been worried about Lib Dems for some time”
    ________

    We will see if at the end of the week they record a conference bounce but I can’t see them clawing back a 16% deficit on their 2010 result.

    Every poll north south east and west…every by-election..the council elections and the European elections had them at rock bottom. Polls are just snap shots but recent elections have shown the Lib’s are on life support.

    Even the student hippies have abandoned them.

  33. @Amber

    Labour needs to win over all the undecided voters in order to maintain the present (2010) numbers in Scotland?

    Ah, but the 2010 result came with a strong LD showing which may well not be repeated next year.

    Obviously the figures for Scotland are wildly wrong…… aren’t they?

    Bon nuit a tout le mond!

  34. excusez-moi

    ‘a tout le monde’

  35. Times front page refers to Ashcroft but not to tonight’s YouGov… Interesting

  36. @ John B

    Obviously the figures for Scotland are wildly wrong…… aren’t they?
    ————
    Geographic crossbreaks are never wrong; they’re just open to interpretation.

  37. Tom Newton Dunn’s no fan of Ed,
    He’s Murdoch’s Sun politics head.
    When skies are blue he’ll tweet just fine,
    When otherwise he’ll take his time.

    Then raise the YouGov survey high,
    Why it’s not out we’ll wonder why,
    Though crossbreaks fail and Scotland’s weird,
    He’ll keep the red tops polling here.

  38. What, no Sun tweet? They’re not afraid of a little poll, are they?

    Pressman, tell them to get it together, will you?

  39. Have just heard part of Cable’s speech on 10.00 pm news. Coupled with other LD comments in the past couple of days it is obvious they are now in all out attack on the Tories.

    Even as an ex-LD member I have major problems believing what I am hearing. Early 2010 it was what I believed and what I expected to hear from the party leadership. 4.5 years later I can’t believe these comments from the same people. Only Cable to a very small extent has espoused these left wing comments in that time.

    IMO changing tack at this late stage with the same people in charge will bring minimum benefit to LDs – couple of % at most. The interesting aspect however is to what extent it will affect the VI from middle of the road voters. While hardening the position of convinced Tories, I suspect that it will negatively affect the position of those on the fringe of the Con VI.

  40. Mr N
    You are William McGonagle and I claim my £5 !

  41. @ John B,

    For what it’s worth, I don’t rate Populus no matter who they show in the lead.

  42. One thing going on in Scotland that could be causing voter flux and indecision, is the issue of prosecutions for poll-tax evasion.

    Many people who have stayed off electoral registers to avoid prosecution for large unpayed poll-tax debts, went back on to the register in order to vote in the referendum.

    Now they are being chased by local authorities, but the SNP have said that prosecutions will not be allowed. This has provoked anger from the law-abiding, but others have been defending, by saying the poll tax was passed against the wishes of 90% of the Scottish electorate.

  43. Tom Newton-Dunn et al are probably at the Pride of Britain award ceremony whilst we UKPR bods wait in anticipation of the latest YG.

  44. @Lefty
    I know what happened. Ed and Vince got their speeches mixed up. It’s the only logical explanation.

    Oh to be a fly on the wall in a LD therapy session.

  45. Tark,

    I live in a LD therapy session, it’s called Sheffield.

  46. “Even the student hippies have abandoned them.”

    Can’t imagine why.

  47. On the polls that we do know about, I must admit to some surprise at the size of that Labour lead in the Heywood and Middleton by-election. If the outcome is anywhere near the poll, and it’s a comfortable Labour hold, then we have had two by-elections this year in safe Labour seats in the North, where UKIP have come nowhere near; Wythenshawe & Sale East in February and Heywood & Middleton now. In fact, if Heywood turns out anywhere near the Ashcroft poll, then Labour will have held both those seats with an increased share of the vote, despite a UKIP surge.

    If so, then old Nige and his Peoples Party are not the force in the North that they appear to be in Tory seats in the South like Clacton, Eastleigh and Rochester.

    That’s why, unlike Bill Patrick, I think that this little clutch of forthcoming by-elections may tell us quite a lot about how voters are behaving with only 7 months remaining before the Big One next May.

  48. What’s the point of being Anthony’s best mates if he can’t leak the YG poll to us? ;-)

  49. YouGov

    CON 35
    LAB 33
    LIB 8
    UKIP 13
    GRN 4

  50. Ouch. Definitely something going on there.

    Does that satisfy our “three in a row” rule?

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