Populus and Lord Ashcroft have both published new polls today. Lord Ashcroft’s poll echoes YouGov’s post conference polls in showing a small Tory lead – CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% (tabs here). In contrast today’s Populus poll still shows a robust Labour lead, as did their Friday poll – CON 31%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15% (tabs here).

Lord Ashcroft also conducted A poll on the forthcoming Heywood and Middleton by-election. Topline figures there are CON 16%(-11), LAB 47%(+7), LDEM 5%(-18), UKIP 28%(+25). While Labour and UKIP are both a little lower than in the previous Survation poll the nineteen point lead is exactly the same, and it looks like we can expect a comfortable Labour hold.


752 Responses to “Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls”

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  1. The Tories had n open primary in my constituency (Bath) but using an open meeting rather than postal ballots There were three pre-approved candidates (selected by the local committee under central office supervision, I imagine). Voting was using AV (!). I think I was one of the few non-Tories there (they had to show membership cards at the end to endorse the choice) so it wasn’t really very open in practice.

    To be fair it is expensive to hold an all-constituency postal ballot but I think misleading to describe anything else as an ‘open primary’. Even with the Totnes/Wollaston one the short list was selected by the local association. (Maybe someone knows if candidates are pre-selected in US primaries in the same way.)

  2. My understanding is that *anyone* can run in US primaries – hence you occasionally get the situation where complete nutjobs who are anathema to their party win, like David Duke in Louisiana in 1989, or the LaRouchies who won some Illinois Democratic nominations in 1986, forcing the Democrat candidates to run against their own party as they wouldn’t share a slate.

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