Two polls in the Sunday papers. The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%. That means both the YouGov polls since Cameron’s conference speech have shown a small Tory lead, though it’s worth noting that that the Populus poll on Friday did not show any movement to the Conservatives so the trend is not all one way. The more important caveat is that the polls were taken in the context of very good publicity for the Conservatives from their conference – we don’t know if it will last once the agenda moves on to, say, the expected UKIP by-election win on Thursday.

On that subject the Sunday papers also have the first poll of the Rochester and Strood by-election, conducted by Survation for the Mail on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 31%(-18), LAB 25%(-3), LDEM 2%(-14), UKIP 40%(n/a), Other 1%(-5). UKIP start out with a lead, but it’s clearly not the complete walk in the park that polling for the Clacton by-election has shown. As commentators have suggested, this one looks like it will be a more competitive fight.


448 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times shows another Tory lead, plus Survation Rochester & Strood poll”

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  1. @Raf
    Con to put on 7% in 4 days? I don’t think so :)

    Interesting stuff from Cable today until you consider the questions of a) who voted for all those cuts and b) how will he vote to repeal legislation in a Lab/Lib coalition he voted *for* only months previously.

    The parties are all scrabbling around desperately. Credibility in short order.

  2. @Oldnat

    Ta for that. My instinct was that it was the lion’s share. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of the new members are one-year only folk, basically giving the SNP a May 2015 quid or ten.

    It’s encouraging to see a big turnout, and then some interest in a party for what seems to be for good reasons. Time will tell if it (the new support and the money) is used properly.

    Contrast with the Lib Dems owing money (according to Police Scotland – apparently the LDs see things differently). The swings and roundabouts of politics. What a difference four years make.

  3. @statgeek

    Stuart Wilks-Heeg has tried to estimate current Scottish party membership figures in the absence of any published one from SLAB and the Tories. His figures com out at about 77k for SNP versus about 36k for the others with SLab the next largest estimated at 13k .

    Detailed.figures (and a graph!) are on his Twiiter account @StuartWilksHeeg

  4. Guardian reporting an ICM poll “shared” exclusively with them- lots of leaders ratings but no headline voting. Seems a bit early for their monthly one- I don’t think Labour would want an ICM poll this week for sure!

  5. Tark,
    When you say credibility in short order ,you are absolutely right.Unfunded tax
    cuts or promises of funding ,people slagging off the policies they have supported through thick and thin for the last four years,No wonder people are
    fed up and if they bother to vote at all ,a protest vote.

  6. Howard

    Just for the record, I wasn’t being deliberately antagonistic. But the fact is that within 4 months of the 2010 election, something like 2 million people who had voted LD changed their support to Labour. That is an unprecedented collapse in support for a party that achieved its aim! Now, three quarters of a million people who voted LD in 2010 appear to be supporting the Greens. The evidence from the VI shifts strongly suggests that these are predominantly coming from the group who went from Lab to LD then returned to Lab in late 2010, before moving to the Greens over the past 18 months.

    If you think (as ON so idealistically puts it) that these people may have been making deliberate, deliberated upon, rational decisions to actively support a particular party, then you need to explain why they recoiled in horror at what they had done in 2010. And it is a perfectly respectable strategy to point out, bluntly to them what they may well end up doing in 2015.

  7. I can just imagine the headlines on Friday morning:-

    “Labour humiliated by narrow victory in Heywood & Middleton – Tories jubilant as they secure 2nd place in Clacton!”

  8. @Hireton

    Ta very much.

    “A picture is worth a thousand words”

    Hence why I like charts and so on. That one is quite informative, isn’t it?

    What would be interesting would be if some of those new members had left another party that same month. Having said all that, members don’t win elections nowadays, so all we can take from all this is that the SNP are not going to disappear after the referendum.

  9. “Increasingly Labour voters are turning to Ukip”

    Get with the program Paul A.

  10. ANN IN WALES
    @”,a conversation if you like with the Nation”

    It was more a list of various conversations with people in London Parks.

    This was always going to invite the Press to go & track them down & reveal their real background.

    It just made him sound like some naive latter day Sadhu.

  11. Colin

    Had to laugh at that.

    Of course that was only the highlights reel of the conversation he had.

    Can you just imagine the less interesting/printable responses of people he met in London Parks?

  12. “Increasingly Labour voters are turning to Ukip”

    Get with the program Paul A

    I know it’s late on a Monday night, but I’m still trying to decipher this bizarre comment.

  13. PRESSMAN

    “Inflammatory stuff from Cable today showing his support for mass immigration, failed intervention and the nanny state.
    He can expect a panning for it”
    ________

    I love your no holds barred mantra PRESSMAN.

  14. The to be or not to e a party member debate revealed some remarkable lack of self-awareness I thought . As I’ve mentioned before, and you only have to read this site for one or two striking examples, some of most narrow eyed, intolerant and partisan political zealots I have ever met have never belonged to a political party of any description, nor are they ever likely to. More special pleading from the faux “look-at-me” non-partisans, methinks and what insulting rubbish to claim that party members and people who work hard, voluntarily and unpaid, to keep our political process going, are typically intolerant of other people’s political views. Lazy received wisdom masquerading as thoughtful comment.

    Tonight’s YouGov will be particularly interesting if it shows a maintained or widening Tory lead. Ashcroft’s polls have been all over the place in the past, and have shown an isolated Tory lead once before, so I’m a little sceptical, I have to say. If we hadn’t had the two Populus polls showing Labour leads then I’d have given it more credence, taken in the round with the two YouGovs showing Tory leads, but there’s no doubt some changes are afoot. Whether they survive this week’s by-election ructions is a moot point.

  15. Ann in Wales,

    No excuses for Miliband, his forgetfullness will follow him right through to May.

    In my opinion the wrong choice, Ed Balls would have been a better man and so would his brother.

    I make May a 50/50 call for most seats, in a parliament where most people are worse off in real terms the opposition should prevail, with a leader with even moderate appeal to the public surely Labour would win easily.

    Choosing a leader of lesser calibre than 2 of his opponents looks very unwise now.

  16. OLDNAT

    “As well as these, there are the really minority parties
    Lib Dems in Scotland had 2,831 members in Dec 2013, and are probably the biggest of the rag-taggle of minor parties which include various Communists, SDA, Free Scotland Party etc. – say 3,000 in all?”
    _______________

    I’m not laughing at this because I know it’s a serious comment but “Lib Dems in Scotland had 2,831 members in Dec 2013, and are probably the biggest of the rag-taggle of minor parties”…HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…………………..HA!!

  17. @Paul A

    Sorry, just carrying on your theme of headlines to expect… regardless of what actually happens

  18. STATGEEK

    “@All
    Get yer predictions in now. Tonight’s prediction?
    Con 35, Lab 35, Lib 7, UKIP 13”
    _______

    I will also go for a neck and neck at 35% but think the Lib’s will be on 8% and UKIP 15%.

  19. Lab 36 con 33 lib 8 Ukip 15

  20. @statgeek

    Time will tell ‘re membership but it is not just a SNP thing. The Greens have trebled their membership and the RIC has had to hire the Clydeside Auditorium for its November conference.

  21. Statgeek

    Agreed that a fair number of those new party members will be “one-year only” – especially for the SSP who don’t use the Direct Debit system. Inertia, however, will keep a number from forgetting to cancel their DD, so numbers will probably tail off more slowly.

    Many of those newbies who actually go along to branch meetings over the next few months will rapidly fall away, once they discover how unexciting party membership actually is!

    Still, for the 2015 and 2016 GEs, the SNP is likely to have a significant advantage in terms of the number of “foot-soldiers” they can deploy – and even more usefully, in social conversations in the workplace, family, pubs etc.

  22. I will go for Lab 34 Con 34 Lib 7 Ukip 14. I’m not much good at predictions but maybe one day I might get one right.

  23. Crossbat11

    I’d have thought that ” typically intolerant of other people’s political views” would be descriptive of personality types, and unrelated to whether people are party members/activists, vaguely interested in political issues, or wholly uninterested.

  24. Colin,
    Well at least he got out there and spoke to people,other than Lynton Crosby and black men in Portsmouth who turn out to be non existent .

  25. I predict

    Lab 37 Con 34 Lib 7 Ukip 13

  26. @Colin @Alan

    There were clear, simple ideas in the speech that should have resonated beyond the hall but they weren’t delivered well.

    EM is at his best when at his boldest – taking people on. As I said upthread his public performances need to focus on a vision which draws together these simple ideas into a narrative.

    He doesn’t have to do much more than that. He’s already in a good position and events tend to hinder governments more than oppositions.

  27. HIRETON
    @statgeek

    “Time will tell ‘re membership but it is not just a SNP thing. The Greens have trebled their membership and the RIC has had to hire the Clydeside Auditorium for its November conference”
    _______

    The SNP don’t get much backing from the Unions but I reckon being on the same side as The RIC is worth more than any union.

  28. Kenny McLean
    [email protected]
    Phenomenal turnout for @SNPKelvin branch meeting 300-400 More than UK Lib Dems Uk Conference.

  29. My guess:

    Lab 35
    Con 34
    Lib 7
    UKIP 14

  30. @OldNat

    “I’d have thought that ” typically intolerant of other people’s political views” would be descriptive of personality types, and unrelated to whether people are party members/activists, vaguely interested in political issues, or wholly uninterested.”

    I’m with you entirely on that.

  31. @Ann in Wales
    2010 is casting a long shadow. Labour is still nervous after that drubbing and forgets it won the previous three elections. Con are haunted by not winning the unloseable election (if they’re not haunted they bloody well ought to be). LD are (perhaps) waking up from an ill advised one night stand and feel grubby. None of them feel they have the right to be heard. At most elections someone has a spring in their step. But this time no-one is looking beyond the base for fear of leaving the comfort zone. It’s like they’re planning for defeat and getting their excuses in.

  32. @Ann in Wales – wasn’t it Plymouth?

  33. @Tark

    “None of them feel they have the right to be heard. At most elections someone has a spring in their step.”

    cept for UKIP (and maybe SNP, but that’s less national, unless there’s a dead heat).

  34. tark

    “@Ann in Wales – wasn’t it Plymouth?”

    You’re thinking of Ann in Plymouth.

  35. No sun poll twitter teaser = labour back in the lead

  36. I sit here astonished that the massed legions of SNP & RIC who are so superior in every way couldn’t get the job done. Poor wee Labour in Scotland were only able to turn a 1 point deficit into a 10 point lead in the space of a couple of weeks.

    But seriously, I dislike it when winners gloat; but gloating when you’ve lost is just weird.

  37. @Tark

    Great post. As good and well written a succinct summary of where the three parties are that I’ve read.

    My prediction for tonight’s YouGov? A neck-and-necker. Labour and Tories both on 34.

    By the way, I’ve just thought about that Ashcroft poll. Combined VI for the two main parties of 62%? I know I’ve argued about the decline of the mainstream parties, in true Rawnsley-esque style, but that’s a bit too low, even for me!

  38. new thread

  39. Off topic…Some footage of the Jules Bianchi crash in Japan.

    https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152812344359432

  40. @amberstar

    Oh that’s a bit sour.

    Firstly, there is something very notable going on regarding political activism in Scotland at the moment which so far as we know is not being reflected in SLAB, Tory or LD party membership. If that is not the case please let us have some info ‘re SLAB membership pre and post referendum.

    Secondly, this activism is also happening beyond any party political structures.
    RIC is one example. Women for Independence is another; you may have seen the reports of their Perth conference.

    Thirdly, SLAB wasn’t on the referendum ballot paper and didn’t win an election.

    Fourthly the historical interpretation of what seems to have been one outlier poll, the final referendum result and SLABs role is heroic but perhaps a bit flawed given the results in Glasgow!

  41. new thread

  42. @ Hireton

    Fourthly the historical interpretation of what seems to have been one outlier poll, the final referendum result and SLABs role is heroic but perhaps a bit flawed given the results in Glasgow!
    ————–
    YG stand by their poll which showed Yes ahead; they say there is no reason to dismiss it as an ‘outlier’. The outcome was decided in the final couple of weeks.

    Labour in Scotland is often flawed. But in this case the effort their people made & the result they achieved was both heroic & historic.

  43. ABMBER

    You’re giving too much credit to SLAB. Yes Labour campaigned hard but the Scottish branch were woeful. Where was Lamont?

    Anyway I’m off back to the new thread.

  44. @ Hireton

    Thirdly, SLAB wasn’t on the referendum ballot paper and didn’t win an election.
    ————-
    At the risk of seeming a bit ‘sour’, neither the SNP nor RIC were on the ballot paper either and they didn’t win anything. The SNP & RIC did put in a huge amount of effort but so did Labour in Scotland’s activists, members, supporters etc.

  45. ADGE3
    You said, “What was slightly interesting to me in your excellent reply, was when you said that “as Colin will be saying later”. Therefore you must be in contact with Colin and you know what he is going to post.”

    Your original post was at 11.04
    Colin’s reply to you was at 11.16
    My post was at 11.56 and I used the phrase, “….as Colin posted later.” ie posted in reply to your message but before I posted mine.

    See the difference in the tenses .

    Should have gone to Specsavers!

    Crossbat11
    Every organisation depends on the few doers. It was the same when I was on the school PTA years ago. 10 people on the committee who decided how the summer fayre etc would be run. Another 20 who were dragooned to help on the day and 1000 parents who turned up on the day of the event.
    Without those 10 nothing would have ever happened but the point is, there always will be a small core who make things happen. Politics is no different. I have an interest in politics, enough to understand the issues and know what I believe in and vote accordingly, but not enough to donate money to a party or join as a member.

    Now if it was the local family history society, that might be different. It all depends what floats your boat, I suppose.

    NEILA

    As a euro sceptic orange booker, I look forward to your manifesto launch !

  46. Colin
    “Not voting wouldn’t worry me though-thats why I would like to see “None of the Above” on the ballot paper.”

    But what would happen if ‘none of the above,’ got the most votes? The. HOC might be empty!

  47. RAF

    I watched his speech, all of it. Every time he went off on one of those anecdotes I was left thinking huh? I didn’t really get anything from his speech apart from an arbitrary set of injustices he wants to fights with seemingly no idea of the consequences for his plans how to fight them.

    Sacking the low pay commission and having the PM come up with another number to be outbid on in future election?

    To me that sounds a ridiculous plan that will hurt people for several reasons.

    Extra tax on cigarettes , frankly I think smokers are taxed heavily at the moment, punishing them further and any tax would be a punishment more than revenue gaining. I just don’t see as a way to improve peoples lives.

    It smacked of a world he wants to live in without a clue how to get there. I certainly saw no pathway for his 10 year plan just a great big “Trust Me”, after that speech, I simply don’t trust he (or Balls) understands how to run or direct an economy. He’s just full of arbitrary unconnected ideas.

  48. ‘Extra tax on cigarettes , frankly I think smokers are taxed heavily at the moment, punishing them further and any tax would be a punishment more than revenue gaining. I just don’t see as a way to improve peoples lives.’

    The point of taxing smokers is certainly punishment – punish people enough and they might stop smoking (and so save the NHS squillions).

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